Fantasy Football is stupid. I’m yet to place in any contest so far this year, picking Joe Burrow as my QB last week didn’t help things…but it’s always fun over on Fantasy Gameday App, if you’ve not got an account there yet, sign up with the code TDTIP and you’ll get a free matched game for this weekends slates, they start at £3 an entry and the choices are ever expanding as they get more popular.
I set up a Bluesky account quite a while ago but haven’t used it at all, if you’re avoiding the cesspit of X then give me a follow https://bsky.app/profile/tdtips.bsky.social, I’ll start posting the preview link over there from now on.
Rams +3.5 @ Eagles: 43.5 (C5/412)
A battle of two unbeaten NFC teams to open the evening as the Rams travel across to take on the Eagles, a re-match of the divisional round game last year.
The Rams have been tight on defense and done enough on offense to get to 2-0 so far with wins against the Texans and last week against the Titans where they sacked rookie Cam Ward 5 times. Puka Nacua already leads the league in receptions with 18, he’ll face tougher coverage tonight though, Davante Adams has settled in nicely, 106/1 for him last week and Kyren Williams still gets most of the work on the ground, although Blake Corum did get a score last week. It’s a fairly shallow offense for them in fairness, but it tends to work. Tutu Atwell might get a deep shot and Tyler Higbee is the starting TE.
The Eagles beat the Cowboys and the Chiefs, so it’s safe to say have faced tougher opponents than the Rams have so far. It’s not been pretty in the passing game, but it’s not needed to with Jalen Hurts and the tush push, although it seems like there could be more penalties on the constant false starts on that play after it was pointed out by many last week, so keep an eye on that tonight. That’s fine, they’ll just run the best RB in the league in Saquon Barkley, who has scored in both games so far. Dallas Goedert returns to the passing “attack” so that probably blunts Devonta Smith a little and AJ Brown will be hoping to add to his 35 yards so far this season. Again, a fairly shallow offense, but one that works.
The Rams are an “under” team this year, so I’m going to be looking that way here. I think I’d take the Rams getting the 3.5 if I had to take either on the spread. Goedert – 7/2 anytime (365)
Steelers -1.5 @ Patriots: 44.5 (403)
When you get a chance to put Aaron Rodgers on the main channel you have to take it, apparently. The 1-1 Steelers take on the 1-1 Patriots.
Rodgers struggled against the Seahawks last week and sits about where I’d expect at 23rd according to QBR. He’s fine, but will take a lot of hits now. As an owner in many fantasy football leagues I’d like them to just lock in on DK Metcalf but that doesn’t seem to have been the case so far, although he did score last week. Jonnu Smith is a good weapon for them and Calvin Austin seems to be involved a lot as well. Jaylen Warren looks like he’s got the RB1 spot as expected but Kenneth Gainwell is there too on a 70/30 type split. The Steelers defense is the highest paid in the league, they’ve allowed 30+ points in both games so far.
The Pats have been fine so far, putting up good yards in a loss to the Raiders and beating the awful Dolphins last week. It’s unclear who the RB1 is with the experienced Stevenson leading them last week, but Treyveon Henderson the more explosive there. They mix the passing game around with Stefon Diggs expected to be the main man, but Keyshon Boutte having 108 yards in W1 and scoring last week, Mack Hollins finding the endzone, and the TE’s Austin Hooper and Hunter Henry chipping in too.
It doesn’t look a fun game on paper, but it might actually be interesting. Will the Steelers defense get it’s shit together? Nah, I’m going overs. Steelers should win and cover though. The big twat let me down last weekend, but Aaron Rodgers o1.5 passsing TDs – 11/10
Falcons -4.5 @ Panthers: 44
The Falcons finally seem to have a pass rush and a defense, they’re 1-1 with a new kicker playing the 0-2 Panthers who have struggled so far.
Michael Penix has done fine, kept the ball pretty safe and done as he’s been asked, but the run game is the key for the Falcons with Bijan Robinson leading the leauge in scrimmage yards at this early point in the season and Tyler Allgeier bashing forwards when required as well. They’re healthier at WR this week with Drake London the main target, Darnell Mooney behind him and maybe… just maybe, this is the year Kyle Pitts does something, 5 and 4 receptions in their two games. Not too much else to talk about.
Not a whole lot to talk about here, the Panthers OL is bad and they lost players on it this week so Bryce Young will be scrambling a lot. He’s done well to largely avoid sacks so far, but they won’t want him throwing 55 times like he had to last week as they chased a comeback. Chuba Hubbard leads them on the ground, but it’s been tough for him so far. Tet McMillan looks like a solid draft pick as the WR1 with er… Hunter Renfrow probably the second look in the slot, he had 7 receptions last week, his line this week, 3.5. TE Ja’Tavion Sanders is one I was high on this year and he looks heavily involved in the passing game too. Xavier Legette set a record this week with -2 from 1 reception on EIGHT targets.
Falcons should win and cover, but it’s a divisional game and they can get weird. I like Hunter Renfrow o3.5 receptions (1/1), I’ve actually taken 6 and 8 at 4/1 and 14/1 at Boylesports, Sanders at 2.5 not bad either, maybe ladder that to 5 and 6 if you can. Bijan o24.5 rec yards? There’s quite a few props I like here
Bengals +3 @ Vikings: 41.5 (Sky 403 Red Button)
We’re 3 weeks into the season and we’re getting Jake Browning vs. Carson Wentz. Browning beat the Vikings in Cinci last year and revelled after being cut by them earlier in his career. Who will be the better backup?
Browning led the Bengals on a game-winning drive last week and if he cleans up the interceptions (he threw 3 of them…) is a fine backup. He doesn’t try and extend plays, he just gets the ball out to the best WR in the league, leading Ja’Marr Chase to 14 receptions last week (165/1). When you spend all that money on your WR’s it makes sense to just heavily target them and that will probably be the way here, with Higgins getting involved too. Chase Brown is a good RB struggling behind a poor OL. Fant, Gesicki andd Iosivas are fine and rookie Mitchell Tinsley made a stunning catch, he might get more from a QB who’s used to training with.
The Vikings were blunted last week and JJ McCarthy may appreciate the week off with his ankle sprain after a rough showing. Wentz has a Super Bowl medal in his pocket from his time with the Eagles and will be a career backup now. He’s one of the better one’s to fill in when needed. Much like Browning he’s got a superstar WR who will have a field day today against a bad Bengals secondary likely missing their “best” cornerback. Jordan Addison is still suspended so Adam Thielen probably a good look in props and TJ Hockenson is a very good TE. They’re without Aaron Jones for at least a month so Jordan Mason probably gets the full workload on the ground, he did that well for the 49ers. Zavier Scott probably the RB2 although they did re-sign Cam Akers this week.
A weird one. Obviously, I want the Bengals to win #WhoDey, and they need to with a tough few weeks on deck. Take overs. Take over on Chase and Jefferson props, I’m shocked they’re both only set at 5.5. Chase and Jefferson both o5.5 receptions – 2/1-ish
Packers -7.5 @ Browns: 41.5
The Packers look like the best team in the league so far, the Browns closer to the worst.
I wasn’t sure the Micah Parson’s deal would make the Pack contenders, I might have to back-track on that a bit. They’ve looked very good with his addition. I still have worries over Jordan Love, he just doesn’t look right out there, but his numbers don’t really show that and Josh Jacobs getting 20+ carries a game looks like it will work all year, it definitely should here. Tucker Kraft has scored in both games for them, he’s officially “good to go” here, but I think they’ll try and lessen his workload after he suffered a knee injury during the week in a game they should easily win. Romeo Doubs probably the WR1 with Jayden Reed out, maybe more for Matthew Golden as he settles into the team, and Dontayvion Wicks gets a bump up. No doubt it will be a Malik Heath TD game as he pops up every now and then. They’re a good team with many options.
The Browns aren’t a good team, although they held a very good Ravens rush attack to very little last week… at the detraction of their passing defense by the look of it as they allowed 41 points to the Ravens. Will they sell out to force Love to throw? Maybe. Cedric Tillman scored again although there was luck involved, he’s 2 in 2 now. Jerry Jeudy will get targets, as well Njoku and Fannin at tight end. They gave Judkins his debut and gave him the most carries, he looked pretty good, but it ruins things for us bettors not knowing who’s going to get the ball on the ground with Judkins, Ford and Sampson all involved.
The Packers should win and do it fairly comfortably but I don’t like this line on the road, even if it is against the Browns. It’s a low total, I’d probably go over if I had to. Malik Heath – 14/1 anytime (PP/Sky) – Probably only 1 or 2 catches but I’ll have a go at the odds. I may well double that with 15/2 for Luke Musgrave assuming that Kraft doesn’t get the full workload.
Texans +1.5 @ Jaguars: 43.5
The Texans were favourites for the division, but they’re 0-2, the Jags are 1-1 after losing the battle of the big cats to the Bengals last week.
It’s been rough for the Texans with their porous OL, and that may well be the issue tonight against a solid Jags pass rush. I’ll admit I don’t remember seeing anything of the Texans so far this year, but Nico Collins is the main man as you’d expect with Dalton Schultz as the second target behind him. They welcome Christian Kirk tonight which should help as he faces his former team and they’d probably want more from Jayden Higgins who isn’t really getting targetted. We know it’s Nick Chubb on the ground at least, he found the endzone last weekend.
I don’t think Trevor Lawrence will ever be a top 10 QB, but he can definitely sling it, it’s just tough to figure whether it’s going to his team or the opponent. 4 TDs, 3 INTs for him this year. He did get Brian Thomas Jnr. involved last week though, but just 4 receptions from 12 targets for him, that’s 5 from 20 targets this season… Travis Hunter popped up on both sides of the ball, but Dyami Brown seemed the most useful receivier for them, he and Parker Washington both had good games last weekend against a poor Bengals D. Brenton Strange cost me a lot of money with just 3 receptions, he’ll probably top 4 in this one. Travis Etienne is the RB1 but Tuten looked good last week and may well get more touches as the season goes on.
The Texans are definitely an “under” team this year and I’d be looking that way here. I’m not taking either on the spread, I guess I’d go Jags. Tuten anytime – 11/4 (Skybet)
Colts -5 @ Titans: 43.5 (Sky 403 Red Button)
The other two AFC South teams face each other here add different ends of records so far this year with the Colts looking great, the Titans, not so much
The Colts punter hasn’t been involved last year as they’ve scored on every single drive, a remarkable change which shows how important a competent QB is. Daniel Jones is 5th in QBR so far this year, zero interceptions, just the 2 TDs, but running a very nice-looking offense with Jonathan Taylor a happy running back, although he’d probably like Jones to stop stealing his TDs as he nudged another one in last week. Taylor did find the endzone from a reception and had 165 on the ground last week. More of the same here. Rookie TE Tyler Warren led the team in yards, he had a knock in the week but is expected to go, Michael Pittman looks good in this offense and Josh Downs is a good option as well.
Cam Ward has had a rough start to his career, but threw a remarkable TD catch on the run, across his body to Elic Ayomanor (who looks like he’ll be the main guy) to open his NFL account. Ward has been sacked 11 times in two games as he looks to make plays with little run game helping him out, and in fairness against two of the better pass-rushes in the league. It’s been tough for the kid. Tony Pollard is the only running back they’ve really got, but he’s never been a bellcow to me. Ayomanor looks like a good option in the passing game with Calvin Ridley and Chig Okonkwo both getting targets as well.
Colts should win, and I’d probably take them on the spread too, despite it being a divisional match. Daniel Jones under 2/1 any time now is fair but annoying, he was 3/1 last week. One I liked a lot last year – Alec Pierce longest reception – o16.5 yards – 4/5
Raiders +3 @ Commanders: 43.5
Two 1-1 teams here with the Geno Smith Raiders travlling across to the Commies who are starting Marcus Mariota at QB.
Geno Smith is who he is, relatively high floor, low ceiling, he’ll have big games but they’ll be few and far in between, and behind a terrible OL it’s not easy for him or rookie Ashton Jeanty who is constantly getting hit behind the line of scrimmage, and tonight they’ll be facing a pretty good DL as well. Brock Bowers is a beast still and should lead the team most week, Jakobi Meyers is a fair WR1 and behind him they have options in Tre Tucker, Dont’e Thornton et al, but nothing that jumps out at me. It does shock me a little that Tre Tucker had 8 targets last week, catching 3 for 12 after his TD in week 1. Maybe one for my props.
The Commanders lost Austin Ekeler for the season and Jayden Daniels for the week in a hit to their offense, but Mariota is a solid enough backup for them and should move the ball through the air and on the ground, a poor mans like-for-like really. Ekeler out for the year is good for JCM as the rookie looks to build on the pre-season hype he had behind him. Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin are good options and Zach Ertz is always reliable. I’m not sure they’ll give Jacory Croskey-Merritt the full workload on the ground, so expect Jeremy McNichols to get quite a few touches as a reliable vet. I’ll have a nibble on the 5/1 anytime for him.
I guess I’ll take the Raiders getting points against a backup QB, but it won’t be involved in any bets for me. Nothing on the total. Tre Tucker o26.5 rec. yards, Jeremy McNichols o15.5 rush yards, 5/1 Anytime (BoyleSports)
Jets +6.5 @ Buccaneers: 43
Another backup QB here with Tyrod Taylor filling in for Justin Fields who’s in concussion protocol to face the 2-0 Buccs.
Breece Hall has looked all right to start the year, Garrett Wilson is a very good WR with relatively poor QB play throughout his career and well, that’s about it for the Jets on offense. Tyrod Taylor is a fair backup, and gets a nice secondary to go against, but this might not be pretty for them.
The Buccs on the other hand have Baker Mayfield playing well, multilpe options on the ground and in the passing game and look like they’ll take the NFC South. Mike Evans has been getting the yards, Emeka Egbuka has 3 in 2 games and should play through a knock tonight and Sterling Shepard is there to step up if required, all before they welcome back Chris Godwin in a few weeks time. Cade Otton is a good TE if they need to move on to him too. Bucky Irving is leading them on the ground with Rachaad White a good backup and Sean Tucker will probably get a few snaps as well there.
The Buccs should win and cover this one. Nothing on the total as I just don’t know what the Jets will be. Maybe look at Bucs team points.
Cardinals +2 @ 49ers: 45.5 (403)
Well, well, well both teams at 2-0. Am I convinced by either? Nope.
The cards have beaten the two worst teams in the league in less than convincing fashion, they got out to a big lead which they nearly screwed up against the Panthers last week, Trey McBride the main man in the passing game as you’d expect, but they really could do with more connection with Marv Harrison (another who let me down on bets). There’s not a whole lot behind those two though, Greg Dortch, Michael Wilson. Bleh. James Conner hasn’t been running too well, Trey Benson getting more touches now.
The 49ers have said Brock Purdy is back but won’t start, so I guess he’ll be there is Mac Jones falls apart for any reason. Christian McCaffrey scored his first of the season last week from one of his 6 receptions, Jauan Jennings led them in targets as the most experienced remaining WR there with Ricky Pearsall looking fine behind him and Kendrick Bourne returning with a few targets as well.
49ers should win and at less than a field goal I’d take them.
Cowboys -1.5 @ Bears: 50 (150/412)
A good choice for the late free-to-air, with both teams pretty good on offense and poor on defense. The Cowboys 1-1 after an OT win and the Bears at 0-2 after a shellacking from the Lions last week.
Dak Prescott has looked pretty good on the whole this year, as he should with CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson and George Pickens to throw to, and having a porous defense is always good for offenses putting up big points in games. Lamb made up for his drops against the Eagles to lead the team with 9 from 11 receptions although he’s not found the endzone yet this season. Ferguson is a reliable TE and did well last week, and George Pickens adds a good target although should have scored more than the 1 he has so far this year. They’re good on the ground too, Javonte Williams benefiting there with 3 TDs, and Miles Sanders got in last week as well, a good sign for them as a team.
Caleb Williams is middle of the pack and that’s probably where he’ll pan out as we go through the season, he’s fine. They spent on the OL and that’s helped D’Andre Swift who scored last week, he is playing after being on the injury report this week. It looks like Rome Odunze has taken the main role in the passing game as he notched his 3rd TD of the season with a double last week and 128 yards for him. DJ Moore has been fine, Cole Kmet and Colston Loveland are a good enough TE duo, and Olamide Zaccheus will pop up as well.
Both teams play fast so the total is rightly quite high, but I’d still be looking over. The Bears opened as favourites but I fully agree with the move on the spread, I’d probably still take the Cowboys. A good one for a bet builder.
Broncos +3 @ Chargers: 45.5
Another division clash as the 1-1 Broncos take on the 2-0 Chargers who have looked very good so far.
It’s not been the smooth start many expected for the Broncos as they lost a fun one to the Colts last week after a not-very-convincing win over the Titans in the opener. Bo Nix looked a lot better though with 3 TDs last week, although the lack of Courtland Sutton in the passing game could be a bit concerning it if continues, good news that they got Troy Franklin going though to add another option there with Marvin Mims and their many TEs. JK Dobbins still getting the bulk of the carries on the ground, he’s scored in both games so far.
The Chargers have been good on both sides of the ball which allows them to keep things slow on offense and that helps Justin Herbert who’s thrown 5 TDs in 2 games and ranks top 5 according to QBR. Najee Harris shared carries with Omarian Hampton with similar results, and that’s probably how it will be going forward as he gets his legs under him after injury over the summer. Quinten Johnston scored his 3rd of the season with another last week and Keenan Allen found the endzone. Both should be behind Ladd McConkey but they’ve got some good options in the passing game now.
The Chargers look like the team to beat in that division so far, but I still worry about Herbert having a shit-the-bed game, he faced a good pass rush last week and did well though so I think I’d be taking the Chargers here, Harbaugh beat Payton in both last season.
Saints +7 @ Seahawks: 41.5
The Saints are 2-0 but there’s shoots of positivity there for them, the Seahawks 1-1 after a nice win in Pittsburgh last week.
Spencer Rattler should keep the Saints in contention to draft his replacement next April but still have them mildly interesting, Juwan Johnson got another 9 targets and is one I’ll keep looking at for receptions, Chris Olave managed the full game for once and led them in yards and Rashid Shaheed found the endzone. Alvin Kamara is having a nice season as well, they’re probably not as bad as I’m making out here.
The Seahawks look pretty good on both sides but the main news is the rise of Kenneth Walker this week with Zach Charbonnet missing out. Walker looked good last week with competition for carries and I’d expect him to top 100 this week without Charbs there. Sam Darnold has been fine, he likes Jaxon Smith-Njigba and got Cooper Kupp involved last week. Tory Horton and AJ Barner of course scored the TDs though (2 in a row for Barner now…). Another fairly shallow offense but one that works.
Seahawks should win, but I’ll take the Saints getting a TD. Walker o80.5 rush yards – I don’t usually take that high a line but he should get 20+ carries. Juwan Johnson o4.5 receptions
Chiefs -6 @ Giants: 44.5
A weird one for Sunday Night Football, but when you get the chance to have two 0-2 teams on you’ve got to take it, right?! The Giants would have taken having the same record as the Chiefs after two games.
The Chiefs can’t get their run game going, Mahomes has not only led them on the ground in both games, but has doubled the next highest rusher for his team in each, that’s got to change and might here in a game you’d expect them to be fairly comfortable in. He’s still one of the best in the league and despite their 0-2 start has the 3rd highest QBR of the season. Pacheco just isn’t very good, Kareem Hunt maybe a few too many yards in his legs but will get work. The passing game has been tough with injuries, Hollywood Brown and reliable Travis Kelce will help them move the ball though. I mentioned Tyquan Thornton for a TD last week and he got one, o18.5 for his longest looks good.
Russell Wilson is in his 13th season, he threw the most yards he’s ever had in a game last week, yet was still somehow the reason they lost as he arm-punted to give the ball back to the Cowboys, he finished with 3 TDs and 450 yards. Malik Nabers is expected to get yards and did last week with 8 for 167 and 2 TDs, while Wan’Dale Robinson also had a huge game, far from his usual 5 for 20 yards, he had 8 for 142 and a TD. They have an utter lack of production on the ground and facing one of the best run defenses in the league, it doesn’t look like that will change. Cam Skattebo, Tyrone Tracey, neither really worth a look in this matchup.
A Chiefs get-right game? I’m not sure I can ever take the Chiefs to win by a TD any more, especially not on the road. Chiefs should win though, of course. Lean under on the total. Lines and odds on TD scorers are pretty poor.
Lions +4.5 @ Ravens: 53
A beauty of a game to finish the week on Monday night. I’m planning on giving this a proper preview tomorrow.
POINTS, POINTS, POINTS!!! Probably Ravens to win, Henry, Gibbs, ARSB, Likely all to score, something fun like that.
TouchdownTips 
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