The NFL reaches yet another region of the world with its first regular season game in Ireland. We thought it would be the Packers, but they knew they wanted Aaron Rodgers, and the NFL gets its wish with him coming over at the helm of the Steelers, he gets to face off against Carson Wentz and the Vikings.
Vikings -2.5 vs. Steelers: 41 (C5, 412)
1430 Kick off
Before we get into the game, PaddyPower are seeing this as a mini Super Bowl and have a whole host of random markets up for this game, fancy Aaron Rodgers to be ejected at 175/1?! I have no idea how long the Irish anthem usually is, but I can’t see the American anthem topping 2 minutes in a random regular season game, surely the under is the one there? I do like “any TD scorer to do an Irish Jig as a celebration” at 9/2 (was 6/1) though, surely that’s going to happen, although it’s a shame there’s no Alex Collins playing.
They’ve got a completely free bet builder for the game too, mine is £2, I guess that’ll vary across accounts.
On first look it seems like Unders is the call for this one, but look a little deeper and you’ll realise that the Steelers highly-paid defense has actually been pretty shit this year so far. The Vikings are coming off a semi-bye week as they handed the Bengals their largest ever defeat last weekend due to their elite defense with Flores at the helm. The Steelers come in after a win over the Patriots last weekend, although they were significantly out-gained.
Vikings
Carson Wentz gets the start again for the Vikes with JJ McCarthy missing out through injury after a mixed start to his NFL career. Wentz didn’t have a whole lot to do last weekend as the Bengals utterly imploded but he did what was required well, throwing 2 TDs, 14 from 20 attempts. He is a good scrambler when required and with the Steelers still having a fair pass rush that may be a little more necessary, maybe a good look on him.
Jordan Mason will get 80% of the workload on the ground with Aaron Jones on IR for at least another couple of weeks, he turned the increased workload into 2 TDs and 116 yards last weekend at over 7 yards per carry against the hapless Bengalés. Zavier Scott got a few carries and CAkers racked up a few after coming off the street. BUT it was a massive blowout which allowed them to mix in the newbies. I think it’ll be pretty much all Mason.
It helps having one of the best WR’s in the league in Justin Jefferson who has is good no matter who he has throwing the ball to him, he should lead the team in targets and I’d think he’ll top the 5 he finished with last week in what should be a closer game. They welcome back Jordan Addison this weekend from suspension and that should help out the entire offense. He is, by some way, the best of the WR’s behind Just Jeff, out side of those two you’re looking at Jalen Nailor who is fine, and Adam Thielen who hasn’t done muchy since returning to the team. TJ Hockenson is likely the second most targeted though as one of the better TE’s in the league, he’s notched a TD this year and I’m obviously going to bet him at 3/1.
Their defense came up trumps last week with 5 turnovers, two of them ending in pick 6’s for Isaiah Rodgers, obviously that probably won’t happen again, but his pace was very impressive in reaching the endzone. HOWEVER Brian Flores is a defensive genius and they’re a talented bunch.
Steelers
Yeah… I’m not a big fan of Aaron Rodgers, however he’s doing pretty well for his age so far, 2-1 is where you’d expect the Steelers to be with the teams they’ve faced and he’s got them there. He still enjoys taking the TDs when they get close, so o1.5 passing TDs for him will probably continue to be my default bet for this team. 22nd in QBR sounds about right for his season so far.
It looked like Jaylen Warren was going to miss out this week (knee injury) but he’s officially playing and their disgust in rookie Kaleb Johnson is such that they have brought Trey Sermon up from the practice squad to support Kenneth Gainwell and Warren should he aggravate the injury. Gainwell and Warren have been sharing carries to an extent, although Warren is definitely the lead there. Dump-offs are an ageing QB’s best friend but it’s whether it’s Warren or Gainwell that we have to pick through. I just don’t know.
I was expecting a big year for DK Metcalf, which doesn’t seem to have hit so far, although he did score last weekend, making it 2 in 3 games, although 3-4-4 through 3 games isn’t exactly what I was expecting from him without a great supporting cast. Calvin Austin looks like he might be something this year though with a couple of scores as well. He’s catching around half his targets so far. They’ve got a couple of good TE’s with Jonnu Smith and Pat Friermuth again a spot I’d be expecting Rodgers to hit more. I struggle with the Steelers in general and this year, I’m struggling even more to see what’s going on with them. They’re a pretty shallow offense, which should make it easier to figure out a scorer.
They should, and historically, have been a very good defense, but this year it just hasn’t clicked for them. Has TJ Watt aged rapidly after receiving a huge contract in the summer? Cam Heyward is getting on, Alex Highsmith is out from injury but Nick Herbig is good. They’ve still got a good secondary and as much as I dislike Jalen Ramsey for being an arrogant prick he does seem to have settled in well there. BUT… Allowing 60+ points agianst the Jets and Seahawks shouldn’t happen. Last week they allowed a lot of yards but came up with key turnovers at crucial moments (on the 5cm line with Stevenson diving for a score).
Bets?
Vikings and Overs look the correct side of things to me. However, it’s abroad and I would imagine a lot of the crowd will be cheering on the Pennsylvanians, and that worries me when picking a side.
Mason anytime – 21/20 (CoraLadbrokes)
My free betbuilder here – Hockenson and Gainwell anytime, Gainwell o2.5 receptions, Vikings o10.5 first half points – around 50/1
TouchdownTips 
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