Well, I had an absolute shocker on sides last week, going 0-6 in my picks contest, but my props have been doing well and it’s always nice to get tweets from people who put together 3 TD scorers I suggested for an 80/1 winner! For me, I needed a Ja’Tavion Sanders TD for a grand, but he missed the 4th quarter through injury and he’s carried that on to this week, not that I’d have been on him again.
The Seahawks won on Thursday night so I’ve got myself 2 points in the pick contest already this week, which is nice. That moved them to 3-1 on the season and looking good in the NFC West.
I have put together a quick preview on the Ireland game at Croke Park, kicks off at 1430 in the UK and available on Channel 5 and SkySports NFL (412).
It turns out the Dak/Lamb stack wasn’t a good choice last weekend, so another failure for me on the DFS front, but it is fun and if you’ve not given it a go yet you can sign up with the code TDTIP and you’ll get a free matched game for this weekends slates, they start at £3 an entry and the choices are ever-expanding as they get more popular.
Browns +10 @ Lions: 44.5 (C5)
I’ve been able to come up with some justification for the choices Channel 5 have made so far, this is a weird one though, I guess at least the Lions are fun to watch, although even they may struggle against what looks like could be the best defense in the league. The Browns have been very good on that side of the ball, it earned them the win last weekend.
There’s not a massive amount to talk about with the Browns on offense. Flacco is just there, Njoku and Tillman look like the main targets for them in the passing game for what it’s worth. Njoku looks like he’ll be the TE1 having gone the opposite way to rookie Harold Fannin who started the season well. Quishon Judkins has taken the RB1 spot and has looked good with it averaging 5.5 yards per carry in the two games he’s played.
The Lions started a little slow but have put up 90 points in two weeks, with wins over the Bears and impressively, the Ravens last week. Their run game did it last week with Montgomery and Gibbs gettings 2 TDs each on the ground. Gibbs is the 1 now, with Monty behind, but whomever they use it works well. Jared Goff does well in this system and Amon-Ra St. Brown is a beast. Sam LaPorta looks like he’s bounced back after a quiet year 2, while Jameson Williams is the deep threat. Safe to say it’s an impressive offense.
No surprise to see the spread this high, a lot relies on the Browns defense being very good again. I guess Browns +10 and Under on the total has to be the sides I’d lean. Jameson Williams anytime – 9/4 (Skybet)
Eagles -3.5 @ Buccaneers: 44 (412)
The most interesting game of the early window with both teams at 3-0, although both could easily be 0-3. It’s been a weird start for them both. The Eagles pulled off a big comeback to beat the Rams last week, the Buccs scraped past the Tyrod Taylor Jets.
The Eagles finally had to use the passing game last week with Jalen Hurts rushing in for a score as he has done in every game this year as well as throwing for 3 TDs. The big three for the Eagles scored the TDs, AJ Brown with over 100 yards and a score, Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert both also finding the end zone. The passing game has a good matchup here with the Bucs secondary a little beaten up. Saquon Barkley hasn’t lit it up like last year but he’s still looking good after a couple of tough matchups. The tush-push is still working even when it probably shouldn’t and they’ll keep being the best in the league at it.
Baker Mayfield will be playing through a knock, but it will take more than that for him to miss a game, but Mike Evans will miss a few weeks through injury, but they may welcome back Chris Godwin in the next week or two to put him alongside Emeka Egbuka who’s had a big start to his NFL career, 3 TDs and 60 yards a game for him and he looks like he’ll be the X receiver with Evans out. Sterling Shepard will need to do more as will Cade Otton, who has done very little so far this season. They’ll have to try and lean on Bucky Irving, Rachaad White and the run game, but at 3 yards or so per carry, that’s not been easy for them so far.
I’ve got to take the Eagles covering this one. It just feels like there’s a bit too much against the Bucs this week. StarSports have Sterling Shepard at 15/2 anytime, he’s about 7/2 most other places.
Commanders +2 @ Falcons: 43.5 (403)
Marcus Mariota takes the QB spot again for the Commanders with Jayden Daniels getting another week to rest his knee injury, and seeing as they put up 40 points last week it’s not a huge shock. The Falcons were shut out in a 30-0 loss to the mighty Panthers last week… it’s safe to say they’ll be better this week.
Mariota did all that was required, 15/21, a passing and a rushing TD as the run game did what it should do and killed the Raiders last weekend. Chris Rodriguez got the early carries, Jacory Croskey-Merritt found the endzone as well and Jeremy McNichols scored at a decent price on the few carries he got. Terry McLaurin is out this week and probably more than that with a muscle injury, so Deebo may get more. It’s basically down to him and old man Zach Ertz in the passing game.
Maybe, just maybe, Michael Penix isn’t a franchise QB? Only 1 TD thrown this season and that was a 50 yard run by Bijan, 2 INTs. It’s been rough. Bijan Robinson is great, Tyler Allgeier runs well when he needs but the passing game is unreliable to say the least, Drake London and Darnell Mooney will probably get the most targets, Kyle Pitts should get his 4 receptions as he has in every game so far.
The Falcons return home after that… I think I’d be taking them to win this one, but realistically, I’m not going to bet either side of it. 5/1 for McNichols again?! It’s tempting. Mooney o3.5 receptions – 11/10
Panthers +5.5 @ Patriots: 43.5
30-0 for the Panthers first win of the season last week, and that wasn’t even the craziest result of the week. The Patriots probably should have beaten the Steelers but they were riddled with mistakes which killed them.
Bryce Young still isn’t doing a whole lot in his second year, Chuba Hubbard has been running well, he looks like he’ll play through a knock. Tet McMillan will be doing the same as well, he’s the main man in their passing game. If they get behind they’ll use Hunter Renfrow a lot but I don’t think they’ll ever be trailing by much in this one.
The Pats are who they are, probably a bottom 8 team who can’t get out of their own way. Rhamondre Stevenson lost 2 fumbles last week, Antonio Gibson lost one as did Drake Maye who also threw an INT, if they keep it tidy they should really win this one. Treyveon Henderson led in carries last week, I think he’ll get even more this week after the fuck-ups of the other two. They moved the ball around well, Hunter Henry, Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins all getting a handful of receptions and the RBs get a lot out of the backfield as well.
The Pats aren’t great, but I think the Panthers are a fair bit worse. Pats should cover this one. Henderson o9.5 rush attempts.
Chargers -6.5 @ Giants: 43.5
The Chargers have probably had the best start of any team so far, sitting at 3-0, they travel over to face the 3-0 Giants who are starting Jaxson Dart in this one as he replaces Russell Wilson at QB.
Najee Harris is done for the year after blowing his achilles last week so it’s all Omarion Hampton now, maybe not the worst news for the Chargers, although they will have to get someone else in at some point. The return of Keenan Allen has been good for the passing game in general, although maybe not for Ladd McConkey who’s targets have dropped off. The emergence of Quientin Johnston has been big for them as a team as well, and they’ve got a solid defense. Fair play, maybe this is Justin Herbert’s year, finally.
The change had to come for the Giants after they were poop for the first three games and going nowhere with Russ at QB, maybe a bit harsh after he had his highest yardage of his career a couple of weeks ago, but they need to look to the future and that’s Dart. That probably doesn’t help the passing game much coming into this one, but time will tell there. The run game has been non-existent as well and due to injury looks like it will be mainly Cam Skattebo who enjoys running through people and is quite fun to watch.
It should be the Chargers, but this is a cross-country trip and an early kick off, that’s a really shit spot for the better team. I’m staying off the spread. Quinten Johnston anytime – 19/10 (365)
Saints +15.5 @ Bills: 48
The aints are living up to their nickname this year while the Bills are doing what they should be doing in the regular season and winning every week. 16 points though?! That’s a lot.
There’s at least some bettable players on the Saints. Kamara is running well, Olave is getting targets (7-6-10 receptions) and Jauwan Johnson (8-5-6 receptions) has been very reliable with Spencer Rattler at QB as well as Rashid Shaheed getting good looks too. Despite losing each week they’re quite viable for fantasy.
The Bills, weirdly, are less viable in fantasy, Josh Allen and James Cook, that’s all they need. The passing game is tougher to call, Kincaird and Shakir both scored last week and are usually the favoured targets. I thought Keon Coleman was coming on this year but he’s very hit or miss and they have a lot of sub-par options that the ball is spread around to, it’s tough to call each week.
The Bills should win but I won’t be touching either side on the spread. Under the Saints is the correlated parlay of choice, but I think it might be a weirdly high-scoring game. Rashid Shaheed – 9/2 (BoyleSports)
Titans +7 @ Texans: 39
This looks like the most “Under” bet in the history of betting, both teams at 0-3, a total of 89 points scored between them in three games so far this year. Safe to say it’s not been great for them so far.
Neither team can protect their QB and it’s killing them. Cam Ward has had a rough baptism although he does have a strong arm and ability out of the pocket, and HC Callahan has handed over play-calling duties this week so maybe they’re be a little more inventive. They don’t really have a run game, Tony Pollard can’t be an RB1 with so little behind him. There is a lack in the passing game as well, Calvin Ridley was expected to get all the targets but catching 1 of 7 like last week won’t get them moving down the field. Elic Ayomanor has started pretty well, he scored again last week making it 2 from 3 games and Chig Okonkwo is the only other person worth talking about there, although I should probably mention Chimere Dike did score before it got overturned on an end-around last week.
The Texans can’t protect CJ Stroud and it’s destroying everything they try to do. His fall off from the rookie year has been stark. Nick Chubb is the RB1 here and even if Mixon does return he’ll probably keep the role, he’s run quite well and gets a good matchup against a Titans team that allows a lot of yards on inside runs. Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz get the majority of targets and they appreciated the return of Christian Kirk last week to add another target as they don’t seem to be going to rookie Jayden Higgins.
Both defense are capable of getting pressure, the Texans secondary is very good as well. This won’t be one many are watching. I guess Titans getting a TD, and under. Nick Chubb o48.5 rush yards.
Ravens -2.5 @ Chiefs: 48.5 (150/412)
From famine to feast in terms of interesting as two teams with worse records than the Bengals face each other in the late slate. The 1-2 Ravens as road favourites in Arrowhead.
The Ravens have had a tough start to the season with losses to the Bills and Lions and a win against the Browns. I still think they’re one of the best teams in the league and things will turn around but there must be a little concern over Derrick Henry who isn’t getting the yardage and has fumbled in each game this year, something you just don’t expect from him, I don’t think he’s falling off, just a rough start to the year, but this is another game against a very good run defense.
Lamar Jackson leads the league in TD passes and sits 3rd in QBR, it’s safe to say he’s playing pretty well, and the offense as a whole has scored at least 30 points in each game so far. Zay Flowers usually the favoured target as he always seems to find himself in 10 yards of space with Lamar scrambling, but Rashod Bateman and finally Mark Andrews (after two dud games) out-did him last weekend. A good sign for the Ravens. They welcome back Isiah Likely this weekend after injury ruled him out of the first 3 games.
They have played two of the better offenses in the league but they’ll be fuming that they’ve allowed 40 points in two of their three games, that shouldn’t be an issue against a defense-first Chiefs side.
The Chiefs have had it tough as well with losses to the Chargers and Eagles before a fairly easy win against Russ Wilson and the Giants last weekend. I say it every week but they are defense-led and games will always be close with them these days. They did finally seem to get a bit of run-game going last weekend with Mahomes not HAVING to do everything himself, they still didn’t have a runner top 50 yards, but Kareem Hunt found the endzone at least.
They should have Xavier Worthy back after his shoulder injury which will help the offense a lot, it’s been pretty dull without him. Tyquan Thornton leading the team in targets, receptions and yards probably wasn’t their plan going into the season, but he scored again last weekend as their deep threat. Hollywood Brown hasn’t stepped up as they’d like, Juju Smith-Schuster is who he is and Travis Kelce is good for 4 receptions a game, not that much else.
One of the better run defenses in the league and the passing defense isn’t terrible either. They’ll do well to slow the Ravens with the way they’ve started this year though.
Ravens are rightly favourites for this one and I think I’ve got to take their side on it while leaning under the total. Isiah Likely anytime – 4/1 – I think he’s more of a play-maker at TE and hopefully he’ll have bigger shoes than last year where he should he won there in game one.
Colts +3.5 @ Rams: 49.5 (404)
The… *checks notes* 3-0 Colts go to LA to take on the maybe should be 3-0 Rams who lost in the craziest fashion last week.
Daniel Jones for MVP?! Top in QBR, ZERO interceptions, 4th in yards, what a pickup by the Colts, wins against Miami and the Titans are gimmes this year but the Broncos game without punting is reason to think it might be something that carries on. Jonathan Taylor got a hat-trick last week as he moved to the league lead in carries and yards, a mobile QB usually helps the run game and it looks like it has here as well. They are without Alec Pierce this week so may need AD Mitchell to finally do something, but he’s 3rd or 4th target behind Michael Pittman, Josh Downs and rookie TE Tyler Warren who’s looked very good so far.
The Rams had a field goal blocked and returned for a TD last week to lose against the Eagles after letting them comeback from 20 points down. A rough finish after blowing them away in the first half of that game. Matthew Stafford is playing well past his back injury, Devante Adams has merged into the side well and Puca Nakua remains pretty darn good, just the 29 receptions through 3 games for him so far. Blake Corum is getting a few carries but it’s still 80/20 or so to Kyren Williams.
Tough one to call, but I still have more faith in the Rams than the Colts. I don’t mind them proving me wrong though, I’m here for the Daniel Jones redemption story. Lean under the total, I think the Rams defense is probably the best the Colts have faced this year.
Jags +3.5 @ 49ers: 46.5 (404)
Trevor Lawrence man, he’s not it. The 49ers get Brock Purdy back at QB.
Much like the Cardinals for me, the Jags just exist. They’re a team in the league and they play games, but they’re never going to do anything to make me take note. Trevor Lawrence had so much hype and he’s just not going to live up to it, he’s good for 80% of a game then throws back-breaking mistakes in pretty much every game and it kills them. Brian Thomas Jnr has caught 7 of 25 targets so far and that’s largely not on him. Travis Hunter is splitting reps on both sides of the ball and that’s making him largely useless on both sides of the ball. Parker Washington is an interesting one though, he seems to be the WR2 in my eyes, and Brenton Strange has had over 4 receptions in every game except the one I needed him to. Travis Etienne is running pretty well and Bhayshul Tuten looks good with the ball.
The 49ers have been really banged up to start the season, but Christian McCaffrey has made it through and this week they should have Purdy, Pearsall and Jauan Jennings on the field, although Jennings is reportedly on a snap count. That will help them as they’ve grinded out results so far this year. Pearsall is yet to score but has been the main man in the passing game with so few others out there, he’s looked good. McCaffrey has 25 receptions and that probably won’t drop too suddenly.
The 49ers have ground out results and I fancy them to cover in a tight unders game here. Brenton Strange o3.5 receptions.
Bears +1.5 @ Raiders: 48
Have the Bears arrived? They sit at 1-2 after a nice win last weekend while the hapless Raiders are putting up yards but not getting a whole lot for them, also sit at 1-2.
Caleb Williams had the best game of his career last weekend with 4 TDs against the Cowboys. D’Andre Swift has been getting the vast majority of carries and should be healthier than last week, so expect his efficiency to bounce back a bit after last weekend. Rome Odunze looks firmly the WR1, he scored for the third week in-a-row last weekend, his 4 TDs unsurprisingly the league lead. DJ Moore is capable if needed but hasn’t had the chances so far, and Cole Kmet gets a bump this week with Colston Loveland missing out through injury.
The Raiders… they’re a tough team to do much with, it looks like the pass-blocking has been pretty good but the run-blocking for their rookie star has been pretty terrible. Geno has been putting up yards so it’s tough to blame him, but they’re not finishing drives. It does help that he’s got Tre Tucker who looks like the elite deep threat in the league after his hat-trick last weekend put him level with Odunze in receiving TDs. Jakobi Meyers is fine, Brock Bowers will always be reliable in the passing game.
A tough one to call, was the Bears win a mirage, or the start of their season? I’m taking the Bears to cover and over on the total. Cole Kmet o2.5 recs – 11/10 (365), Tre Tucker o3.5 recs
Packers -6.5 @ Cowboys: 46.5
The Parsons-Bowl! Micah Parsons returns to Jerrahville after just a month away as part of the best team in the NFC (maybe) so far this season. The Cowboys are 1-2 after losses to the Eagles and the Bears.
The Packers have looked good on the whole, especially on defense although they shit the bed in a look-ahead game against the Browns last weekend. I still have reservations over Jordan Love and last week didn’t help dim them, I think he’s an average QB and that might be all they need with the defense, especially in the regular season. Jayden Reed remains sidelined so Matthew Golden stepped up as the WR1 in his place and lead them in yards last week, expect Romeo Doubs to be up with him in targets this week. Tucker Kraft has been great this season and did well through injury last week, I predicted Luke Musgrave to score, so my pain when 3rd TE John Fitzpatrick who I’d never heard of went in for the TD was high. They want to be run first with Josh Jacobs and he should have a big game against a poor Cowboys defense.
The Cowboys are now without their two stars from last year with Parsons out of the door and Ceedee Lamb out with injury, but they have run the ball well, so Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders will have big parts to play here if they want anything from it. With Lamb out of the game last week they went to Jake Ferguson at TE, I doubt he’ll get the same attention as that, but they’ll need George Pickens to step in the WR1 spot as he definitely thinks he should be, this is his chance in a game most of the US will be watching. This feels like a Jalen Tolbert 2 TD game, or something random like that, him or Turpin.
Packers should be a TD favourite and they are. Got to think the Cowboys will be fired up for this one though. I’ve got nothing on the spread, or the total, I could see a 20-10 Packers win, or if things go well for the ‘Boys a high scoring affair.
Monday Night Games
We’ve randomly got two games on Monday.
The Jets (+2.5) and Dolphins are quite rightly hid away at 0015 in the UK. Justin Fields returns for the Jets after concussion and Tua seems like he’s constantly playing through that. Breece Hall (o56.5) bounce back against and awful Dolphins defense, Achane over 5.5 on receptions. I like the Jets to cover and OVER on 44.5 points.
The Bengals (+7.5) may well be murderised by the Broncos in Denver, although the embarrassment of last week should give them a bit more fight and Bo Nix hasn’t exactly been fire for Denver this year. I’d probably be taking both QBs to throw and interception. I don’t know man, I kinda like the Bengals covering the spread now it’s over a TD and over on the total of 43.5
TouchdownTips 
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