It’s the first of the three London games this week with the Browns and Vikings taking the field at Totenham Hotspur Stadium with seemingly thousands of tickets still available for sale, it’s almost like raising the price of tickets by 20+% in a perpetual cost of living crisis and expecting people to still pay for Carson Wentz v Dillon Gabriel isn’t the best business idea. I doubt it will stop another hefty hike in prices next year but I hope that people at least take note of the amount of tickets still available for all games given the previous years where they’ve been like rocking horse shit. They removed season ticket holders and hopefully now they’ll be punished for screwing over loyal fans by having empty seats at the stadium.
I nailed it on Gainwell last weekend, I think he’d have been fine even before the late scratch of Jaylen Warren but that definitely made it more comfortable. It wasn’t a great weekend other than that as I ate into some of the profit I’d banked from the first 3 weeks of the season. On to this one!
Bonuses this week – Bet £10 on NFL, get a free £5 on Skybet. Money back on a Betbuilder the London game on PaddyPower.
One thing that has been great for the game over here in the UK though is Fantasy Gameday, where you can enter a fresh fantasy line-up each and every week. Perfect if you’re 0-4 in your league like Rob Langley seems to be at every time by this week every year. If you’ve not given it a go yet you can sign up with the code TDTIP and you’ll get a free matched game for this weekends slates, they start at £3 an entry and the choices are ever-expanding as they get more popular.
Vikings -3.5 @ Browns: 35.5
I usually do a standalone for the London games, but I’m not sure this deserves it. Even before the season we were expecting JJ McCArthy v Joe Flacco, so it wasn’t exactly top-billing, but now we’ve got Carson Wentz (sans OL) vs. Dillon Gabriel making his first NFL start at QB for the Browns. I think defenses may be on top as do the bookies with this ridiculously low total.
The Vikings struggled to move the ball against a reinvigorated Steelers defense last weekend and with the Browns boasting one of the best run defenses in the league and a brutal pass-rush I’m not sure they’ll fare much better this week, especially with 2 of their OL starters missing the game. That’s bad news for Jordan Mason who bundled to 57 from 16 last week, but probably good news for Zavier Scott (9.5, 1.5 recs) who’s their 3rd down back and may be used a lot more out of the backfield this week, I think he’s my man here.
They didn’t really use TJ Hockenson last weekend for some reason, so I think he’ll probably get a bit more eariler in the game this week. We know Justin Jefferson will get open and get towards 75 yards, although the Browns pass defense isn’t terrible either, Jordan Addison should have a few deep shots, and that’s probably about it. I am really not expecting much offense in this game.
Now we enter the world of unknowns, we just don’t really know what Dillon Gabriel will be at QB, but generally you expect a backup QB to give options to the guys he’s been training with, so while Quishon Judkins probably gets a lot of the carries on the ground, and he’s done well with them, it might be worth a look at Dylan Sampson who started the season as the RB1. Then we’ve got the likes of Isiah Bond who had 3 for 56 yards last week and with the injuries the Browns have at WR has a good shot at some plays in this one as well. Jerry Jeudy does what he does, Njoku and Fannin are a good duo at TE and once again, that’s about it.
I am looking at total sacks but 365 has gone down, as it seems to every Sunday morning…o5.5 sacks should be OK here, I think both QBs will be hit frequently. Zavier Scott o9.5 rec. yards – 10/11, Isaiah Bond o28.5 rec. yards – 5/6. – I will admit I’ve bet on under 2 minutes for the American National Anthem as well, it was around 90 seconds last week in Ireland and I don’t see it hitting 2mins outside of the Super Bowl (on PaddyPower).
Right, on to the proper games.
Cowboys -1.5 @ Jets: 47.5 (C5)
This might be weirdly fun, both teams have shown they can score and aren’t exactly secure on defense, and of course, they’re two of the most widely supported and recognised teams in the UK so a perfect choice for Channel 5.
We had our first tie of the season last week as the Cowboys showed up to ruin Micah Parsons homecoming, and it meant another 300 yard and 3 TD game for Dak who hit Pickens and Ferguson for 8 and 7 receptions respectively, Prickens with a couple of TDs and Ferguson with the other. Expect the same in this one really. Tolbert and Turpin got a few yards and the run game worked well again with Javonte Williams looking pretty good on the ground so far this year.
The Jets are 0-4, but had Justin Fields back last week to lose to the Dolphins on MNF. He’s been relatively good this season and his rushing ability makes them more fun to watch. It’s helping Breece Hall as well who’s looked a lot better on the ground and catching out of the backfield. Garrett Wilson is their main target, he scored again last week and rookie TE Mason Taylor looks like he’s getting increasingly invovled in the offense.
I like the Cowboys to win and cover here, over on the total. Mason Taylor o3.5 receptions. The usual suspects are all around evens to score, Williams, Pickens, Fields will go into my builder with Taylor recs at nearly 17/1
Broncos +3.5 @ Eagles: 43.5 (412)
The main Sky game this week sees the Broncos coming off their bye week…they weren’t on bye? Oh, well they didn’t play a professional NFL team last week so I’m counting it as a bye week, taking on the 4-0 Eagles who still haven’t really hit their stride but keep racking up the wins.
The Broncos have been a weird one this year, and at 2-2 would expect better, but their 2 losses have been by 1 and 3 points, while their wins have come over two of the worst teams in the league. JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey have been a good 1-2 punch at RB with Dobbins still getting the slight lead role there by the look of it. Courtland Sutton the main man in the passing game, but they spread it around most players behind him which makes them a tough one to bet on each week. Troy Franklin probably the WR2 but Marvin Mims looked good last weekend and there’s a few TEs they like as well, led by Evan Engram who’s finding his way in the team.
The passing game at the Eagles has been largely non-existent this week leading to AJ Brown expressing his feelings on it. Will the squeaky wheel get the grease in this one? Devonta Smith has been moaning as well, but with the team at 4-0 it’s probably not going to change a whole lot. They flipped a couple of TDs to Goedert last week, his 2nd and 3rd of the season, and used a fake tush push to have Saquon Barkley stroll into the endzone, but 2 receptions apiece for their highly paid WRs is less than expected. Do I want to take o4.5 for AJB or Devonta Smith? Fuck no, the Broncos have a good defense.
I have to lean to the Broncos here, I think it will be a close game, TriBet probably a good look actually – Either team to win by 7 or fewer – 5/6 (PP).
Texans @ Ravens: (403)
Injuries all over the shop for the home team here which has lead to the Texans being road favourites despite their horrible start to the season.
The Texans shut out the hapless Titans last week for their first win of the season with Nick Chubb taking a backseat to rookie Woody Marks at RB, the kid looked good with his 21 touches, 119 yards and 2 TDs for him. Will he get towards a 50/50 split again this week? Well, it has given us a nice low line on Nick Chubb, I think I’ve got to take o32.5 on him, o16.5 on Marks rec. yards seems the best way to attack his props. The passing game for the Texans hasn’t been good as they have no OL. Nico Collins obviously the WR1, with Dalton Schultz the second-leader on receptions for most of the year. Jayden Higgins did sccore his first NFL TD last week and Christian Kirk adds a little too.
The Ravens are without Lamar Jackson, hence the Texans being faves, but they’re also missing the majority of their defense, which the Chiefs took full advantage of last weekend. So this may not be a pretty game for them, however I do expect the coaching to get the offense moving even with Cooper Rush at QB. It’s not been the best start for Derrick Henry who may finally be feeling his usage, so they brought in Justice Hill last week who looked great on limited touches, expect them to give him a little more this week as well. The passing game isn’t easy for me to call with Rush at QB, I’d guess more for Andrews and maybe they’llk try and get Likely the ball this week. Flowers and Bateman are fine WRs, and Nuk is capable of big plays every now and then. The Texans do have a good defense, so I’m liking dump offs to the RBs or short passes to the TE in this one.
Chubb o32.5 rush yards, Marks o16.5 rec. yards, Schultz o3.5 receptions, Justice Hill o2.5 receptions. I’ll probably have a bet on Likely at 11/2 but that’s not official given the lack of targets for him in a dead rubber last week, must admit the 6/1 on Justice Hill is pretty tempting too… this could be another bet builder game for me, maybe I’m chasing from last week, I don’t know.
Raiders +7.5 @ Colts: 47.5
The Raiders are the Raiders, they may be fun, but ultimately, they’re going nowhere this year. The Colts probably should have won last week but had a WR who’s disappointed for his whole career fuck up and cost them last week.
The Raiders at least got Ashton Jeanty going last week, 3 TDs and 155 combined yards for him as they made the effort to get the rookie moving and without Brock Bowers (highly likely) they’ll probably concentrate on the ground game again in this one. Raheem Mostert did well with his carries too, maybe they’ve found a run game. The pass game is always going to be hit or miss with Geno at QB, 2 TDs, 3 INTs for him is pretty much what I expect every week from him. Jakobi Meyers is fine, they might be heading to an old favourite of mine Albert Okwegbunum at TE, 14/1… maybe. Tre Tucker will get deep shots, it’s feast or famine with him.
The Colts have been the surprise team of the year so far with Daniel Jones looking very good at QB and Jonathan Taylor enjoying having a mobile QB. They’ve got a decent duo with Michael Pittman and Josh Downs, but are without Alec Pierce again for this one, so might need to target AD Mitchell who dropped the ball before the endzone last week costing his team a TD and then held on a big JT run that went for a TD. Will he be punished here? I’m not sure but it does worry me. They do love Tyler Warren though, but the bookies are on to that, I’m not taking o4.5 at 8/13.
The Colts should win, but I think I’d lean the Raiders on the spread. Apprently Bet365 have 16/1 on Mostert anytime, he’s 10s at best elsewhere (a laughable 4/1 on WillHill). I’d have a nibble if you can get the 16. Brock Bowers is 8/1 on 365, worth a go as he’ll be voided if he doesn’t play.
Dolphins -1.5 @ Panthers: 44.5
A shitshow. The Dolphins actually won a game but lost Tyreek Hill for the season while the Panthers remembered they’re actually pretty fucking terrible when losing in New England after shutting out the Falcons the week before. Weird teams.
Good news for Jaylen Waddle and his receiving incentives at least, maybe not for the team as a whole. Darren Waller finally saw the field and had a couple of TDs in his Dolphins debut and they’ve got De’von Achane who somehow only had 1 reception last weekend. Will Nick Westbrook-Ikhene do anything? Malik Washington?
The Panthers are without their best player too with Chuba Hubbard missing out, so Rico Dowdle gets the RB1 role, with Trevor Etienne behind him. 20.5 rush yards for Etienne might be worth a look. Tet McMillan is pretty good but the whole offense is hit or miss due to their OL and Bryce Young. Tommy Tremble maybe a good look at props with Ja’tavion Sanders out again.
Not one I’ll be doing anything with, Etienne yards the only nudge I’ve got on this one and I’m not confident there. Nothing on spread or total.
Giants +1.5 @ Saints: 41.5
Jaxson Dart looked all right at QB last week as they beat the Chargers while the Saints lost again to slip to 0-4.
The loss of Malik Nabers for the season removes the best player from the Giants offense leaving Darius Slayton and Wan’dale Robinson as the main “threats” in the passing game now, and with the run game down to pretty much just Cam Skattebo, who is actually very fun to watch as a modern day Beast Mode who just seems to enjoy trying to run over people. Slayton should be the main beneficiary from Nabers out but it’s hard to have faith in anyone.
Talking about lack of faith…actually that’s a lie, their QB play is horrible but they’re a reliable team, Alvin Kamara is still good, Olave and Juwan Johnson will get around 7 targets each and they welcome back Taysom Hill from injury this week, I’m sure he’ll get some snaps at QB as well here. I do need to mention Kendre Miller who actually had a lot of touches last week and scored with a rush attempt.
I won’t be backing the Saints this year so I’ve got to lean to the Giants who actually opened as favourites. Slayton o3.5 recs, Juwan Johnson o3.5 recs.
Buccaneers +3.5 @ Seahawks: 44.5 (412)
The Buccs couldn’t pull off their magic last week as they lost to the Eagles while the Seahawks have looked good this year, a win on TNF last week taking them to 3-1.
Without Mike Evans they moved the ball around last week, although Bucky Irving was a big gainer there… he’s missing this week so it should be a mix of Sean Tucker and Rachaad White, with White leading that role due to his pass-catching ability. Emeka Egbuka has been a great draft pick for them, he scored again last weekend and Chris Godwin returned from injury without issue. Cade Otton still underused compared to where I expected at the start of the season.
The Seahawks should be healthier coming off 10 days rest which is good news for Zach Charbonnet who played through a knock to score last week, he’s a good foil for Kenny Walks at RB, although Walker tends to have more attempts Charbs seems to be the redzone guy on the whole. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the definite lead through the air with Cooper Kupp plodding along at 20-30 yards a game. Elijah Arroyo and AJ Barner share snaps at TE making it tough for betting, but Barner notched his second of the year, but at a best of 5/1 is one I’ll avoid. Jake Bobo at 25/1… interesting as a very long shot, he’s 6/1 on other sites, although probably only getting 1 target it is probably correct at 25s.
A tough one to call but I’ll go for the healthier team, at home, coming off 10 days rest. Seahawks to cover, over on the total. Rachaad White o23.5 rec. yards
Titans +8.5 @ Cardinals: 41
The Titans are challenging the Saints for the worst team in the league, while the Cardinals are the most average team in the league.
Tajae Speares is back for the Titans to help out the run game and give Tony Pollard a bit of a rest, Cam Ward has been destroyed so far this year and I don’t see that changing here, Elic Ayomanor looks like the favoured target with Calvin Ridley now behind him. Chig Okonkwo should be the guy behind him.
The Cardinals are now down to RB3 and 4 with Michael Carter and Emari Demercado coming in with Trey Benson out for a month. The bookies are expecting Carter to get the carries by the look of it, I’d rather o20.5 on Demarcado rush yards than the 42.5 on Carter. Trey McBride and Marv Harrison the only other people worth mentioning.
Not a game many will be watching, I guess lean to the Titans with it being such a big spread, but really, who cares?
Lions -8.5 @ Bengals: 47.5 (403)
The Lions offense is firing on all cylinders as they went to 3-1 last week while the Bengals offense is the third worst in the league, along with one of the worst defenses and the utter lack of any talent at head coach or apparently head office makes this another lost season with highly paid offensive talent going to waste.
Should be huge games for Gibbs and Montgomery, with Monty bouncing back from being shut down by the Browns last weekend. Gibbs looked good still as he found the endzone again. Amon-Ra St. Brown gets the easiest matchup he’ll get all year and this may be a good game for their bit part players on offense to get touches as they win by a billion.
Ja’marr Chase is a stud, but it’s tough to get the ball to him when your QB is on his back after half a second, and with no run game to help out it’s a miserable season for the Bengals. But hey, at least they’ve still got full faith in their QB, that’s nice. Chase had 5 catches last week at least, for 23 yards, he needs to take one to the house or there’s nothing there.
Seriously. It fucking sucks to be a Bengals fan some times, decades of nothing, then a little bit of hope after a good season or two, and then back to normality. It’s the sniff of success that makes it so painful, especially with the Ravens so beaten up and the Browns still shit, it looked like a season to take advantage. All of us would even take Russell Wilson at the moment, and I really don’t rate him.
Lions win by 20, take them to cover the spread. Montgomery o53.5 rush yards
Commanders +3 @ Chargers: 47
This game is far more interesting with Jayden Daniels returning for the Commies and the Chargers looking to bounce back from a shock loss to the Giants last week.
Marcus Mariota has done well in relief of Daniels, but his return should boost the run game with Chris Rodriguez and JCM sharing carries there. Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown are out again, so Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz will get most of the targets. Luke McCaffrey has popped up a couple of times now and maybe a good one to look at for props, 4/1 anytime.
The Chargers lost LT Joe Alt early on and it killed their game plan, he’s out here as well so it might not be as easy as Justin Herbert hoped. Omarion Hampton looks good as the only RB back there and will have the full workload in this one, while Keenan Allen and Quientin Johnston have both looked good in the passing game, a surprising lack of Ladd McConkey has been weird this year, he’s too good to be out of the gameplan for too much of the season.
Another tough one to call, I think I’ll lean to the home team though; Hampton o65.5 rush yards. Johnston anytime – 7/4 – I’ll take him every week at this price.
Patriots +9 @ Bills: 48.5
Sunday night fotoball is an AFC East clash which the Bills 4-0 Bills should continue their march to a home playoff game in.
The Pats put up a lot of points agianst the Panthers last week with the run game looking good, I was high on Treyveon Henderson, and he did score along with Gibson and Maye, but he didn’t get the workload I was expecting despite their run-away win. Hunter Henry scored again, making it three on the year. Stefon Diggs topped 100 yards, but this is a VERY different game.
The Bills are run first? James Cook having a great year with his 5th rushing TD last week and another 100 yard game, 401 on the season now behind just Johnathan Taylor in yards. With Josh Allen and his rushing ability there as well, it’s unstoppable at the moment. Khalil Shakir seems the main guy in the passing game again with Keon Coleman popping up every now and then. Dalton Kincaid scored a 28 yarder last week but isn’t reliable enough for a prop.
The Bills should win and cover, they’re averaging 32+ a game and haven’t had to stretch other than the Ravens game.
Chiefs -3.5 @ Jaguars: 45.5
The Chiefs took full advantage of the Ravens falling apart last week with a comfy win as they opened up the offense against a depleted defense while the Jaguars took advantage of Brock Purdy being even worse than usual as he played through a toe injury.
The Chiefs defense was good again and the run defense should do the job against the Jags here meaning they might not need to do too much on offense. The run game still hasn’t got going and I’m not sure it will, Pacheco runs hard but inefficiently and Kareem Hunt isn’t what he used to be, but Mahomes is Mahomes and he’ll move the ball for them whether it’s scrambling or passing. They welcomed back Xavier Worthy last week and he led the team in yards, Hollywood Brown, Juju, Thornton and Pacheco all scored receiving TDs. It’s tough to pick them on a weekly basis as he will spread it around. Kelce is Kelce.
The Jags… I don’t rate Trevor Lawrence at all and if the run game is stymied as I expect he will be forced to throw and when he does that he throws INTs. Brian Thomas Jnr is having a horrible year, now 12 receptions from 32 targets, although 5 from 7 was a big improvement last week. Travis Hunter splitting reps on both sides of the ball doesn’t seem to be helping the passing game either, but big Brenton Strange is looking reliable at TE for them. Parker Washington is hit or miss (seems to be a common phrase for me this week) so very unreliable for props.
Chiefs win and cover, maybe a look at Chiefs defense scoring. Brenton Strange o3.5 receptions. Xavier Worthy o6.5 rush yards
TouchdownTips 
Leave a comment