Week 6 of the season and the injuries to players continue to mount, the Ravens have been decimated and that led to them getting destroyed by a previously blunt Texans team last week, the Jaguars beat the Chiefs on MNF, maybe they are good for once? The Lions look like they’ve not missed a step with new coaching, the Bucs won in Seattle and the 49ers somehow keep winning despite having no players left.
The Giants pulled off a pretty big shock on TNF with a Cam Skattebo hat-trick leading to them to a fairly easy win over the Eagles as things start to level out for Phillie after scraping wins when playing badly to start the season. Skate Bro looks really fun to watch, fair play for that at least.
The London game was surprisingly entertaining with the Vikings taking the win late on against the Browns, and this week should be mildly entertaining as well, although it seems inevitable that the Broncos get the win.
If you’re on the train on the way to Spurs, why not give Fantasy Gameday a try, where you can enter a fresh fantasy line-up each and every week, see if you can take down the opposition in their single game contests. If you’ve not given it a go yet you can sign up with the code TDTIP and you’ll get a free matched game for this weekend’s slates, they start at £3 an entry and the choices are ever-expanding as they get more popular.
Broncos -7 vs Jets: 43.5 (C5)
The Broncos come here off the back of a win against the Eagles while the Jets are the sole win-less team in the league, although that record seems a little harsh on them.
The Broncos sit joint top of the AFC West at 3-2, thanks in large part to their defense which has allowed the 2nd fewest points in the conference at this point of the season. Their offense is varied and while that helps them as a team it’s not great for us as bettors. JK Dobbins is still the lead back with RJ Harvey backing him up, something that doesn’t look like it’s going to change in the short-term. Courtland Sutton is the WR1 but behind him it’s very tough to judge who will get the ball, we’ve had Troy Franklin weeks, Marvin Mims and then they’ve got a few TE’s who get targets in Engram, Trautman and Adkins.
The Jets haven’t had much trouble putting up points with Justin Fields at QB, but the defense has fallen off a cliff (almost like getting rid of an elite defensive coach in Salah was a bad idea) so they’ve not got anything over the line so far. Justin Fields has been OK at running back and he’s helped Breece Hall look closer to where he was a couple of years ago.
The passing game relies on Garrett Wilson and increasingly rookie TE Mason Taylor as there’s very little behind those two. Breece Hall is good out of the backfield but relying on Allen Lazed in 2025 isn’t a good place to be. A lot is on Justin Fields doing something fun to move the ball. Money back on your BetBuilder at Paddypower – Fields, Sutton anytimes, Nix o1.5 passing TDs, Taylor o3.5 recs – about 16/1 (PP) – Both teams to score 15 points – Evens (Skybet boost)
Rams -7 @ Ravens: 44.5 (C5)
The Rams contrived to lose against the 49ers on TNF while the Ravens injuries to their defense and QB have them looking like the Browns.
Putting it simply, if the Texans can put up 44 points on the Ravens then the Rams should be putting up 60. They’re a well rounded team and Matthew Stafford is playing at a very high level despite his nagging back injury. Kyren Williams is running well, Puka Nacua is a beast, currently leading the league in receptions and yards and Davante Adams looks like he’s settled in well too as more of the TD threat. I like Tyler Higbee if he’s healthy to go, but they don’t use the TE too often.
There’s not too much to be positive about for the Ravens so far this year, Derrick Henry looks like time may have finally caught up with him, they have Cooper Rush at QB so their passing game is inept and their defense has been decimated. They do have a few players back which will help but it’s been injury on top of injury and it’s not been pretty. Zay Flowers the one regular point of attack for them.
The Rams should win and cover, but again, I don’t want to take them covering a TD spread on the road, under on the total, although Rams team total over 27.5 might be the sensible bet. Byron Young to record a sack – 4/5 – I feel like over on Adams makes sense, but if the Rams get out of sight they might just load up Kyren/Corum so it puts me off.
Seahawks +1 @ Jaguars: 47.5 (412)
This should be a fun one on Sky; the Seahawks lost a shootout at home last week but have been good on the road while Trevor Lawrence’s stumble TD won the game for the Jags last weekend.
The ‘Hawks are 1-2 at home, but have won both of their games on the road so far this season, a weird one for a team who usually have such an advantage in the north-west. This is pretty much the longest domestic travel in the league, for an early start though, not a good spot for them. Kenneth Walker has been moving the ball well between the 20s with Zach Charbonnet taking goal-line work to good effect. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is making me look an idiot for thinking moving out of the slot would slow him as he seemingly out-recieves the rest of his team combined every weekend, although Cooper Kupp is finally getting a bit more involved. AJ Barner is on one this year in the Redzone though with 4 TDs this season and a high of 7 receptions last weekend.
I don’t rate Trevor Lawrence, but fair play to the Jags, amazingly their one loss this year was to Jake Browning and the Bengals, which is just crazy, the man with the golden locks rushed in 2 TDs in their win, but has only thrown 6 TDs this year, to 5 INTs. Travis Etienne should bounce back on the ground after facing the Chiefs run defense. The passing game hasn’t clicked yet but BTJ and Hunter make some important catches last week and it will click eventually. Brenton Strange is out for the month now though so they’ll need to figure something else out at TE, Hunter Long and Johnny Mundt the next guys up there.
I’m still not buying the Jags, I’ve got to take the Seahawks despite the long travel, let’s go over on the total. Looks like I’m expecting a lot of points in games this week. Charbonnet anytime – 19/10 (365)
Patriots -3.5 @ Saints: 45.5 (404)
The Pats handed the Bills their first defeat of the season with Drake Maye looking good while the Saints beat the Giants thanks to 5 turnovers in a row from Jaxson Dart.
The line seems right to me, Drake Maye has had a couple of good games in a row but it was their defense under Vrabel who got the job done, restricting the Bills to 20 points. Stefon Diggs had his best game in Patriots colours, although it was against his former side which probably helped his motivation. The run game wasn’t good, but Stevenson found the endzone twice. He’s splitting the role with Treveyon Henderson, and was with Gibson, but the veterans is done for the year with a torn ACL which should clear things up for the rookie to take more carries. Hunter Henry continues to be reliable in the passing game but it’s a mess really, Boutte, Hollins, Douglas, Hooper all get targets and none really stand out.
The Saints got the job done last weekend but still look destined for a top 3 pick in the draft, which they’ll surely spend on a QB. Rattler isn’t bad bad, but he’s not good. He does find Olave frequently which is useful, and Rashid Shaheed will have a big game every now and then like he did last weekend, but it’s rough behind them two, even Juwan Johnson who has been used to 7+ targets a game struggled to get much last week. The run game though looks like it’s moving more towards Kendre Miller who’s run well in the last two and maybe away from Alvin Kamara, although it could be a short-term trend.
A tough one to call, the Pats are the better team but I can’t take them -3.5 on the road in the big easy. Nothing on the total. Juwan Johnson anytime – 4/1 (Bet365), Kendre Miller probably over-priced at 9/2 on PP. TreVeyon Henderson o34.5 rush yards
Cardinals +7 @ Colts: 47.5
The Cardinals pulled off the most remarkable loss in NFL history last weekend with Emari Demercado “fumbling into the endzone” (I still think he crossed the plane, but he deserves his punishment for being an absolute plum) leading to his coach getting fined 100k for slapping him across the chest on the sideline and their defense fumbled an interception into their own endzone for the Titans to score as they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, amazing stuff. The Colts look great.
I’ve said more than enough about the Cards already. Kyler Murray is official questionable with a foot injury caused when a snap hit him in the face.
The Colts have been brilliant with Daniel Jones and their defense looks good too. Jonathan Taylor leads the league in rush yards and TDs, second in attempts, after another 3 score game last weekend. Michael Pittman and Tyler Warren are their passing threats although Josh Downs can help them get it moving as well. Ashton Dulin got a fair few looks last week as they punished Adonai Mitchell for being a bonehead the week before.
Colts will win, should cover but this seems like the type of game the Cardinals randomly win, so I won’t be taking Indy on the spread. Bam Knight – 7/1 (PP) – seems too high for someone who get redzone carries last week.
Browns +6 @ Steelers: 38
The Browns looked fine but lost which is probably for their benefit really and this week they traded away Joe Flacco meaning they’re going to give their rookie QB(s) a proper run under centre with Dillon Gabriel looking fine there, and some other guy as backup waiting if he slips up. The Steelers had their bye week. Horrible travel spot for the Browns despite it being a divisional game.
Quishon Judkins looked great running the ball in London finishing with 110 from his 23 touts, and it’s safe to say it looks like it will stay that way for as long as they can. The TE’s Njoku and Fannin both scored and both had 4+ receptions as a rookie QB’s best friend while Isaiah Bond caught just 2 of 7 targets, a lot of redzone looks so maybe one for betting. Jerry Jeudy is there still but just doesn’t seem reliable these days. Such is the ridiculous mania in the states I do feel a bit for Gabriel, he will take sacks here and if he fumbles a couple the chat of his backup will be even more hideous.
The Steelers welcome back Jaylen Warren from injury, but will they give Kenneth Gainwell the main touches after his 99 (he was 25/1 for 100 yards :/) and 2 TDs in Ireland? DK Metcalf had his best game since signing his extension in Pittsburgh with 126 yards and a TD from 80 yards out. They gave a lot to the big, BIG mamn Darnell Washington and other than that the passing game is a bit shit to call. Calvin Austin, Jonnu Smith? Aaron Rodgers has done what he needs to do well.
Defenses should be on top in this one, if you can bet on sacks then you should be fine to take o5.5; Nick Herbig for the Steelers should notch one (12/5) and Myles Garrett is by far the DPOY so far this season, great fun to watch. I think I’d be taking the Browns on the spread if I had to pick one, got to lean under but it’s a low total. Gainwell o25.5 rush yards – Warren is back and that won’t help, but Gainers ran well last week and I think they give him a bit more of the ball still.
Cowboys -3 @ Panthers: 49
The Cowboys are definitely involved in fun games even if the quality isn’t that high, they can’t defend but Dak Prescott is playing very well on offense. The Panthers got a win last week and will be fielding Rico Dowdle against his former team.
Dak is this years Joe Burrow, 2nd in yards, 3rd in TDs and 3rd in QBR as he has to keep up with his opponents and he’s doing it without Ceedee Lamb. They have been moving the ball well on the ground as well which helps with Javonte Williams scoring a couple last week to make it 6 this season, 135 rush yards for him last weekend. Second year Ryan Flournoy obviously led them in rec. yards just like we all knew he would, he had 9 targets along with Jake Ferguson who is actually one to look for on props. George Pickens found the endzone again and will remain the scoring threat.
The Panthers are without most of their offensive line which will make things tough for Bryce Young, but he played well coming back from 21 down against the awful Dolphins last week. It was Rico Dowdle who was the main man though, over 200 combined yards and a TD in his first time as the starting RB for the team and he faces the team who let him go over the summer in this one. Xavier Legette returned to score, and Tet McMillan looks very good. Honestly though, I think it was the Dolphins being the Dolphins as much as anything else last week.
Cowboys win and cover, over the total. Prescott o1.5 passing TDs – 8/11
Chargers -4 @ Dolphins: 43.5
Two teams who constantly fuck everything up. The Chargers lost to the Commanders while the Dolphins gave up a big lead to the Panthers, who will out-do the other in terms of ballsing-it-uppery here?
The Chargers don’t have any RBs as Omarion Hampton joined Najee Harris on IR. It seems like Hassan Haskins will be the de facto one, but I personally prefer Kimani Vidal, 38.5 and 30.5 respectively for them, I’d go Vidal on rec. yards if you find a line there though. Allen, Johnston and McConkles are at least a great trio for Justin Herbert in the passing game.
This really is a battle of two QB’s I hugely rate under most people as Tua is the man in Miami. Jaylen Waddle their only real viable target, although Darren Waller had a good first half before being utterly ignored in the second. De’Von Achane the only one reliable in any way, although it’s receptions rather than rushing where he does his work.
Could this game be fun? Maybe, both are horribly un-trustworthy on either side of the ball, but the Chargers at least have talent on their offense so I’ll have to take them winning and covering. The Dolphins never beat anyone with a winning record. Vidal o1.5 reception – 6/5
Titans +4 @ Raiders: 41.5
The butt-bowl, two terrible teams facing each other in Vegas, but the Titans scraped a win last weekend while Geno Smith proved me right for how I’ve judged him for years with one of the worst games you’ll ever see against the Colts last week, I was a Tucker TD away from a grand from a tenner, the useless dick.
The Titans don’t have much going for them, Cam Ward can chuck a ball and enjoyed it last week with Calvin Ridley leading them on offense, 10 targets for him which he turned into 131 yards. Elic Ayomnar has the trust of his QB and Chig Okonkwo will get his looks as well at TE. Tony Pollard fumbled but scored and Tyjae Spears returned to the lineup to add more explosivity there.
The Raiders will surely go even more run-heavy this week with Ashton Jeanty and keep Geno from having to throw it, they’re without Brock Bowers again so that limits their passing attack either way. Jeanty had 4.8 yards per carry last week but the game got away from them, although that did help his receiving stats, 5 for 42 there. Tre Tucker led them in yards with big Albert O coming in and having 5 receptions. Jakobi Meyers is there as the only other real “weapon.”
The Raiders know the Titans don’t pose much threat and Maxxxx Crosby should have a field day against their offensive line. Run the ball, don’t let Geno do anything and they’ll win. Take the Raiders to cover. Jeanty o75.5 rush yards, Mostert o17.5 rush yards. Mostert was 16/1 antyime last weekend, I’ll be on him again if he’s there this week (7/1 the best price at Betfred)
49ers +3 @ Buccaneers: 47 (C5/412)
It’s a testament to Shanahan that the 49ers are 4-1 and only 3 point dogs in Tampa this week against a Buccs team who beat their NFC West rivals in Seattle last weekend.
Mac Jones will be getting the start again at QB, and that is definitely a boost over a turf-toed Brock Purdy. Christian McCaffrey will be happy with that too as his touches with Mac explode, he’s had at least 6 receptions in each game this year, and scored 3 times, all recieving TDs. Ricky Pearsall is out, but Jauan Jennings returns for them alongside Kendrick Bourne who had 10 receptions last TNF. Demarcus Robinson got a few touches and Jake Tonges looks good at TE, but this will probably be the last we see of him with Kittle expected back next weekend.
The Buccs can’t defend but have got a gem in Emeka Egbuka who’s stepped up with Mike Evans out of the lineup as he will be here. They’re also without Chris Godwin who can’t go, so I guess a lot of Eggy and Sterling Shepard? Probably Cade Otton getting 4+ receptions again this week as they look for players to get the ball to. Rachaad White got the large bulk of the carries with Bucky Irving out last week and probably will again here. Tez Johnson the random name to look for in the passing game.
Every Bucs game has been by a single score, so TriBet for me here (either team by 7 of fewer points – 5/6 PP), although I do think Baker has something going and the Bucs will be the winners despite their injuries.
Bengals +14.5 @ Packers: 44.5 (404)
The Bengals made a move at QB, like they had to… it didn’t change the line at all. The Packers come off their bye week with a semi-bye.
Browning finished the game well last week but it was over with due to his 3 horrible interceptions so the Bengals bring in Joe Flacco who just needs the Steelers to complete the AFC North now, I’d have prefered Wilson or Winston from the Giants, but this is the Bengals. I guess they just want him to keep it safe, and in fairness he was QB when the Browns won in GB a few weeks back, just don’t turn the ball over will be the main job. They can’t run the ball at all, so Chase Brown looks like a loss this year but Chase and Higgins are very good and Flacco should enjoy taregetting them both. Noah Fant looks like the TE1 for them. The defense actually played quite well last weekend.
The Packers haven’t won for a month but should set that right here. I’m still far from convinced by Jordan Love but their defense is so good it doesn’t need a top 5 QB for them to rack up W’s. Josh Jacobs looks great on the ground and Tucker Kraft seems the key man in the passing game, although they have the ability to move it around with Doubs, Golden and Wicks all good enough when required. Their gameplan though is 20+ carries for Jacobs, ground and pound and rely on their defense.
Now… The Packers should win, and it feels like punishment for Flacco giving him his debut off of 5 days training against this defense, but 14.5 points seems insulting.
Lions +2.5 @ Chiefs: 52.5
The Lions smashed the Bengals early on but lost a CB and allowed a lot of late points while the Chiefs look to bounce back from their MNF loss to the Jags.
The Lions offense is no issue, Gibbs was the main man on the deck last week but Monty found the endzone as did Sam LaPorta in a big game for him. Amon-Ra St. Brown seems unstoppable most of the time and they’ll role out fun plays if they need it, but they’re struggling to stop teams so I get why this is the highest total of the weekend.
The Chiefs can stop teams and Mahomes is still capable of beating up on poor defenses so he should have a good game here. They talked a lot about Breshard Smith getting touches and he did very little, while Kareem Hunt scored twice last week in their crowded backfield. Xavier Worthy will play, so expect him to lead targets with Kelce. Tyquan Thornton is getting TDs, Juju and Hollywood are always a threat with Mahomes throwing to them but hugely volatile week-to-week.
An elite run game against an elite run defense. I want to take the Lions, but Spags will relisgh this challenge and Goff famously struggles if they make him go past his first read, something that Spags will make sure happens. This is a very intriguing game. I won’t be taking either on the spread, but got to lean to the Chiefs. Worthy over on his rush yards is usually a solid bet, but with him not being fully healthy I’ll avoid it.
Monday Night Double-header (again)
Another random double-header as the NFL thins out its Sunday games once more.
Bills -4.5 @ Falcons: 50 (0015 KO)
The Bills lost for the first time last weekend while the Falcons come off of their bye week after beating the Commanders the week before.
You’ve got to think the Bills bounce back, but I guess that’s the risk when it’s all on the QB. James Cook had an off-day and that was that for them. Khalil Shakir is fine but he’s not the WR1 you really want when it comes to it, Keon Coleman found the endzone, but again, he’s not stepped forward as you’d have hoped and Dalton Kincaid had the type of game he is always capable of with 108 yards to lead the receiving game. I don’t think the Bills have two down games in a row though.
The Falcons have been very good until the redzone this year, which makes them incredibly volatile, 0 against the Panthers, 34 against the Commanders… Bijan Robinson is great, Drake London is fine, Kyle Pitts should get his 4 receptions, but it’s tough to trust anything they do with Penix at QB… so far. It’s his first year as a starter and while he’s not going to be a great, he could turn into a good QB. Darnell Mooney misses out through injury and their defense finally looks all right.
Lean to the Bills winning and covering. They either win by 10 or the Falcons win by 10. It’s a stupid game sometimes.
Bears +4.5 @ Commanders: 50 (0115 KO)
The Bears come off their bye week, the Commies come off a comfy win with Jayden Daniels back under center last weekend.
I can’t really trust either of these teams yet. I feel like there’s good coaching in Chicago though and an early bye could be what they needed to get shit sorted out? D’Andre Swift has been the main man at RB for them, but not massively efficient. Caleb Williams seems “fine” again, he’s a young starter but as a #1 pick there’s more expected of him than he’s showing so far. Rome Odunze has scored in every game so far, I’m expecting Moore from DJ and less from Olamide Zaccheaus who’s been pretty reliable so far for them. Colston Loveland is questionable with injury so I guess more Cole Kmet again.
Jayden Daniels returned to the starting lineup last week as they easily beat the Chargers. They’ll be without Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown again, so I’d imagine the same game plan for this week, give it to “Bill” – rookie Jacory Crosskey-Merritt had a breakout game with 111 and 2 TDs on the ground and 39 through the air, I guess that’ll be the plan this week as well. If they do have to throw it then Deebo Samuel will look for another big game, he seems to have found his spark again in a new location and away from pneumonia. 8 receptions for him, 1 the most of any other wide reciever and NOTHING for Zach Ertz, who’s usually so reliable to at least 4 receptions a game. Ertz o3.5 receptions.
Tough one to call. I guess I’d say Commanders, but no result here would shock me.
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