NFL Week 7; Rams v Jags at Wembley!

Every year it’s the same, we wait forever and before you know it it’s Week 7 and we’re into the second third of the season. It just goes too quickly! It’s the final London game today with the Rams travelling over to face the London Jaguars at Wembley and there are still tickets available if you wanted a last minute treat to yourself.

The Bills and Eagles looked imperious in the first month but have both lost 2-in-a-row now, the Chiefs have stepped it up and have Rashee Rice back this week which is a nice boost to their chances for another Super Bowl appearance. The Lions defense was riddled with injuries and they couldn’t slow the Chiefs last week while the Packers took care of the Bengals. That covers the top 5 in Super Bowl betting at this point in time. The Rams and Colts are next up, but the Buccs are probably the ones if you wanted an outside bet at this time of the season, around 18/1 everywhere.

The mighty Joe Flacco has a win under his belt as the Bengals QB as they beat the Steelers on Thursday Night to make the AFC North a little more interesting as it looked like Pitt were going to walk away with it. Mike Tomlin doing his usual when he realised how far ahead of his precious 9-8 record and their defense leaving one of the best WRs wide open throughout most of the night, it was a weird decision helped the Bengals to their first win in a month, they move to 3-4, the Steelers still top the division at 4-2 having had their bye week already.

That game would have been a good one to enter a contest at Gamedayfantasy.app with all the points, and having Ja’marr Chase as Captain probably would have won you the whole thing! If you’ve not signed up yet and fancy giving it a go, use code TDTIP at sign up and you’ll get a free matched entry into a contest.

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Rams -3 vs Jaguars: 44.5

The usual method here is to take the team who are more used to this trip, and that is obviously the Jags, however there’s strong links to taking the coach who’s done the trip more and that’s Sean McVay, against the rookie Liam Coen, the more experienced coach is 7-2 against the spread in these games…however, there’s a big injury here which makes that more worrying.

The Rams are without Puka Nacua and he is most of their passing offense, so it’s safe to say I’m a little worried about their ability to maintain drives here. Fortunately, they have one of the best coaches in the game so while it does put me off taking them giving away points on the spread I wouldn’t be shocked if they won fairly comfortably. Matthew Stafford is the better QB in the game, I think Kyren Williams the best RB in this matchup and if they give Devante Adams the targets that Puka would normally get then they shouldn’t have too many issues. They will need someone behind him to step up though, Tutu Atwell, Tyler Higbee but it might be Jordan Whittington who gets a few more targets today.

The Jags aren’t a team I can ever trust. They have definitely been a lot better this year and have set themselves in a good position in the AFC South at 4-2 after defeat at home to the Seahawks last weekend. They are moving the ball better on offense and their defense has been good to start the year as well as they’ve become a more rounded team, I still have concerns about Trevor Lawrence and he should face some pressure today from a good Rams front. Brian Thomas Jnr. has finally started catching some of the many targets that go his way and his connection with Trev is the key for them. Travis Hunter is splitting reps on both sides of the ball which seems to limit his output on offense, Parker Washington has popped up a few times but without Brenton Strange at TE they’re on to Hunter Long who’s not as good at play-making. Travis Etienne is getting the large bulk of the carries with Bhayashul Tuten behind him, both are capable on the ground and catching out of the backfield, but it is solidly Etienne’s role.

A very tough one to call, I think I would have to lean under on the total, it’s fairly high for a London game and without Puka the Rams may struggle to move the ball as easily as they usually do. Obviously, PaddyPower have their BetBuilder refund offer on again, so I’ll go for that; Trevor Lawrence o14.5 rush yards, Tyler Higbee TD, Jordan Whittington o3.5 recs, Bryce Young to record a sack – 23/1

Raiders +12 @ Chiefs: 45.5

An AFC West clash for the early Channel 5 as they get to enthuse about Patrick Mahomes for the first time this year. The Chiefs record against the AFC West is ridiculous so the winner of this game isn’t really in doubt, but can the Raiders keep within 2 TDs?

The Raiders rely a lot on Ashton Jeanty and the run-game as they try to reduce the amount of errors Geno Smith can commit. Geno didn’t throw more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage for 3/4 of the game last weekend as they were worried about his INTs, but up against one of the best run defenses in the game I’m definitely not expecting a big game from Jeanty, although the bookies know that too and have dropped him to just 58.5 yards. They are again without Brock Bowers in the passing game so relying on Jakobi Meyers, Michael Mayer and the hit-or-miss Tre Tucker. Tucker would be the one I’d lean to on props, but honestly I won’t be touching anything on the Raiders side.

The Chiefs run game is not easy to call so I’ll skim over that, Kareem Hunt seems to be getting the goal-line work, Pacheco isn’t great, but I do like the o1.5 rush yards on Xavier Worthy as they tend to give him one or two goes a game. Rashee Rice returning is the big news for them as his suspension is over, the bookies have gone straight in thinking he’ll be the main man with a 66.5 line for him. It does give me interest in Marquise Brown o24.5 as he’s topped that in every game this year. Will they ignore him completely after 2 TDs last weekend? It’s given them more options and brings them back to full strength on offense now. Tyquan Thornton o7.5 is a teaser as well as the deep threat.

The Chiefs will win, I think I’d lean to the Raiders on the spread and under on the total though. I am closer to u66.5 on Rice than the over. Hollywood Brown o24.5 rec. yards.

Eagles -1.5 @ Vikings: 44 (412)

Injuries have done for the Eagles in recent weeks with OL and DL issues hampering their cause as they’ve lost 2 in a row to the Broncos and Giants while the Vikings come off their bye week to return to action in the states after two weeks in London, still with Carson Wentz at QB.

Things haven’t looked good all year in Phillie but they were scraping out results until getting smashed by the Giants last TNF, Hurts will still get his rush TDs, but they’re not moving the ball well, the passing game hasn’t been great this year and Saquon Barkley being on the cover of Madden has slowed him down as well after he dominated last season. It’s a weird position to be in. Dallas Goedert have scored 5 in the last 4 games so must be the one to look for in TDs props, although Barkley nearing even money is a tempter as well. I can’t trust the passing game for props so won’t be touching AJ Brown or Devonta Smith.

It looks like the Vikings are hiding JJ Mac behind his injury as they go again with Carson Wentz at QB. He has been fine, and with McCarthy looking average at best in his starts I guess it makes sense. The week off will have helped Jordan Mason who had a few knocks in London and remains the main man on the ground with small doses of Zavier Scott when he needs a snap or two off. TJ Hockenson has been tough to judge on a weekly basis, but Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison look like they’re back to their reliable 1 and 2 selves.

Two usually very good defenses on show here so it’s a tough one for props. I want the Vikings to win, so I’ll lean that way, home underdogs is usually a good spot. Jordan Addison o3.5 receptions – 4/6. It’s 10/11 for Saquon, 1/1 for Hurts… 11/4 for Dallas Goedert anytime at BoyleSports, I’ll go for him and mark it as 5/2 as the more common price.

Patriots -7 @ Titans: 42.5 (404)

Mike Vrabel revenge game as he goes to the rudderless Titans after they sacked Brian Callahan after another loss last weekend.

Drake Maye has looked like the second coming of Brady in recent weeks showing off his arm strength and leading the Pats to the top of the AFC East, will that continue? This week will be a tester as the Titans have one good thing about them and that’s their defense. Stefon Diggs had a couple of big games before dropping last week as Kayshon Boutte and Demario Douglas stepped up with the yards and scores on deep passes against the Saints, Hunter Henry is ever-reliable at TE and Mack Hollins has popped up with a few good games as well. The run game is still muddled to me, Stevenson getting most of the carries still with TreVeyon Henderson still sitting behind him.

Cam Ward has been severely hurt behind a terrible OL and with poor coaching, he’s the most sacked QB in the league, although has had a few chances to show off his arm strength. Calvin Ridley is out so they’ll be looking to rookie Elic Ayomanor who he seems to like and Chig Okonkwo who’s pretty reliable at TE as well. Tony Pollard still got most of the carries last week, but with a new HC, will they give the more explosive Tyjae Spears more touches now he’s had a few games back in the line-up.

The Pats should win, but the dead-coach bounce isn’t as strong as hearsay thinks it is…I’m away from the spread, not even a lean on this one. Tyjae Spears o12.5 rec yards, o2.5 receptions – 7/4. The sensible thing to do with a new coach is give the QB easy short passes, that’s hopefully where he goes.

Panthers -1 @ Jets: 41

The Panthers seems to have worked out who they are in recent weeks, while the Jets know that they’re dogshit and mired in ineptitude.

What will they do with Rico Dowdle now that Chuba Hubbard is returning? He had nearly 250 yards last week, so surely they won’t just ignore that and give it all back to Chuba?! 65.5 for Rico, 35.5 for Chuba are the rushing lines on offer. That’s surely quite fair, 66/33 to Rico? Bryce Young has benefitted from it too, they don’t want him throwing too much and 55 attempts in their last two wins is probably where they want to be. Tet McMillan looks very good as the main guy in the passing game, he scored twice against the Cowboys last weekend and should be the most-targetted WR, Xavier Legette isn’t trust-worthy, but Tommy Tremble at TE is fine, and you should get big odds on Mitchell Evans as the TE2, but they do seem to like him in the redzone, they should have Jat Sanders back at TE and Jalen Coker returns to strengthen their passing corps, I know the Coke-heads will be happy with that one.

The Jets have been a mess and the coaching seems to be the main reason, letting the clock run down to the half last week really highlighting the state of the team. Justin Fields hasn’t ever been a passing QB and did face a very good Broncos defense in one of the worst London games in history, so I can forgive him a little for that, but with Garrett Wilson missing out it isn’t likely to be nice this week either. Bet365 handily shows the last 5 games yardage for players, the LEADING reciever for the Jets last week with Josh Reynolds with 25 yards, Mason Taylor is 2nd behind him with 2. They had -10 passing yards due to sacks. Mason Taylor has to be the guy, and I won’t go near anyone behind him despite the tempting lines on them all.

Can the Jets win a game? I’ve got to take the Panthers only giving up a point, although trusting them after a couple of good games is probably stupid as well. Chuba Hubbard o1.5 receptions – 1/1.

Dolphins +2.5 @ Browns: 35

A weather game, in Cleveland?! You don’t say. Rain and Wind expected to mess up an already horrible looking game and the total has been dropping all week, rightly so with two noodle-armed QBs.

This should be run-game heavy as Tua struggles to throw outside of the numbers and the Browns defense is actually quite good. De’Von Achane usually uses the short passing game to move the ball, so I don’t think I can do o67.5 rush yards for him, the 28.5 rec. yards looks more tempting to me. Jaylen Waddle the main target in the passing game, but I don’t want to touch him in this expected weather. Darren Waller has scored three games in a row, there’s not much else to talk about for them.

The Browns are seeing what they’ve got with Dillon Gabriel, and it doesn’t look like much, he’s not got a strong arm so may struggle tonight. They do have a very good running back in Quishon Judkins though, his 93.5 rushing line is one I can’t really take, although he may well get there. I’m far happier with o9.5 for Jerome Ford. David Njoku is out, so Harold Fannin gets all the TE targets. Isaiah Bond is getting a lot of targets without converting them, I’ll wait for next week to try and take anything on him.

Should be a run-heavy game, but I don’t like the lines and prices on Judkins, despite him looking very good. Jerome Ford o9.5 rush yards, anytime TD – 13/2. The Dolphins defense sucks.

Saints +4 @ Bears: 45.5

The Saints are doing what they need to do, looking all right, but losing and retaining good draft position, while the Bears became the 2nd team ever to win consecutive games with the exact same score. Weird stat.

Spencer Rattler hasn’t been terrible and has a pretty good completion percentage but he’s nothing special and targeting Chris Olave double-digit times a game isn’t rocket science. Alvin Kamara hinted he’d retire if he was traded this week, fair play to his loyalty, and he is still the main guy in the run game, as well as being useful in the passing game. Rashid Shaheed is the deep threat with Brandin Cooks offering similar and I’m expecting Juwan Johnson to bounce back a bit, although with Taysom Hill back now, who knows.

The Bears have ground out a couple of wins with D’Andre Swift blowing up last weekend, to the detriment of Rome Odunze who failed to score for the first time this year, although was still up there in targets, 2 from 5 for him. DJ Moore has fallen back to WR2 for them, and went to hospital after the game last weekend, apparently with a dick injury…I’m sure that wasn’t fun, but he’ll likely be playing with a cup this weekend. Olamide Zaccheaus remins relevant which means I need to check my spelling each week, he actually led the team in targets last time out. Loveland was back so he and Kmet are eating into each others targets at TE. Luther Burden seems increasingly involved as the deep threat.

Who are the Bears to be giving 4 points to anyone? I think I’ve got to go Saints covering. The Bears are the better team but I still don’t trust them to blow anyone out. Luther Burden longest receptions – o14.5. He’s the deep threat and the Saints gave up 3 big TDs last week. Rashid Shaheed o3.5 receptions, his season so far – 6,4,4,4,4,4 receptions.

Giants+7.5 @ Broncos: 40.5 (404)

The Giants come off a stonking win and long rest to take on a Broncos side who have struggled to beat anyone by a margin this season (except Jake Browning…)

10 days rest for Cam Skattebo and Jaxson Dart who have immediately make the Giants at least fun to watch. The Creatine Caucasians, Arm and Hammer, the Miiiiiighty Whites on the ground and through the air are moving the ball for the Giants at least and the aggression of Skattebo will hopefully be fun for a year or two before he retires through injury. They’re without Darius Slayton again, so Wan’Dale Robinson should lead them in targets with Theo Johnson the chosen RZ man by the look of it. Lil’Jordan Humphrey was expected to have a big role and led the team in targets last week against the Eagles.

The Broncos have one of the better defenses in the league, to the relief of their offense which has regressed under Bo Nix this year. Courtland Sutton will probably by the main guy in the passing game, Marvin Mims, Evan Engram, Troy Franklin making it a muddled mess behind him, good for them having options, bad for us. JK Dobbins is still dominating snaps at RB, and should do better than he did last week.

I can’t take the Broncos winning by a TD, have to lean to the Giants, although this Broncos defense will cause issues, as will the Giants front, in fairness to them. Have to lean under on the total. Lil’Jordan Humphrey o30.5 rec yards, or o2.5 recs, both look good.

Colts +2 @ Chargers: 48.5

Now this is an interesting game, the Colts are 5-1, the Chargers 4-2 and, as always, riddled with injuries.

The arrival of Daniel Jones has been great news for the Colts, especially Jonathan Taylor who leads the league in carries, yards and rushing TDs so far this year after another 100+ yard game last weekend against the Cardinals, so I doubt we’ll so much difference in this one. The passing game is tougher, Josh Downs misses out with concussion, Michael Pittman and Tyler Warren probably the leaders in the passing game with Alec Pierce back for deep shots and maybe Adonai Mitchell back in the lineup with Downs out for the game.

The Chargers ground out a win against the Dolphins last week with Herbert muscling out of a sack to get them down the field late on, they should have Quinten Johnston back after he missed last week meaning they’ve got their main 3 at WR. Ladd McConkey hit 100 and a TD last weekend with QJ out of the lineup, I’d imagine that will drop slightly as they revert to type. Keenan Allen has looked good back here and rookie TE Oronde Gadsden may be the TE1 for them now. Kimani Vidal had a big game at RB with Hassan Haskins the RB2 last week, I have to think that will be the same this week.

This should be a fun one to watch, although it will be mainly on Redzone in the UK as it’s not the main game on any channel. I’m going to take the over, and probably the Chargers winning and covering, but there’s not much confidence there. Gadsden o28.5 rec yards.

Packers -7 @ Cardinals: 44.5 (150)

The Packers are the shortest price of the NFC teams in the Super Bowl market and they have looked good, the Cardinals give Jacoby Brissett the start again with Kyler Murray out, that’s probably a good thing for them.

The Pack dealt with the Bengals last week in Joe Flacco’s debut for the team and it went as they want to, slow drives relying on Josh Jacobs working their way down the field and relying on their defense to give them good field position. Jacobs is officially questionable with illness but that doesn’t mean too much, although it has moved Emmanuel Wilson 5/8 for an anytime TD, which is absurd. Jordan Love is fine, Romeo Doubs and Tucker Kraft has favourite targets, although the connection with Golden seems to be growing as well.

The Cardinals looked far better with Brissett at QB as he topped 300 yards in a narrow loss to the Colts, but they’re so limited in regards to talent it’s always going to be tough. Marv Harrison and Trey McBride should be getting 10+ targets a game and then mix in a little Greg Dortch and that’s about it in the passing game. They announced late that Zonovan (Bam) Knight would start at RB and he scored again last week at nice odds, I’d assume he’s the 1 again with Michael Carter the RB2.

The Packers should win, but I’m not taking them -7 on the road even if I don’t rate the Cards at all, if it was against Kyler, maybe. 21/10 the best price for Bam Knight is probably too short for my liking. Probably stupid, but 7/1 for Greg Dortch at PP/Skybet will be getting a small stake from me.

Commanders +1.5 @ Cowboys: 54 (412)

Expected to be the highest-scoring game of the weekend as two NFC East teams highlight the late slate in Dallas. The Commies at 3-3, the Cowboys at 2-3-1.

Injuries are making it tough for the Commanders as they’re without Terry McLaurin again, Deebo Samuel is missing out, and while Noah Brown isn’t a stud, he’s another missing WR. So I guess we’re looking at Zach Ertz leading the team in targets and yards once more, not a bad thing as someone who has him in many fantasy leagues, but not ideal for the team. The top WR is probably Luke McCaffrey by default with Jaylin Lane becoming more involved by the week, Chris Moore needs a mention as well with no-one else really there. Jacory (Bill) Croskey-Merritt has looked good in recent weeks and he’s needed to be with the injuries they’ve got on offense, it looks like Jeremy McNichols is the 3rd down back for them, he may be a bit more involved in the passing game.

The Cowboys haven’t struggled putting up points with Dak Prescott apparently in the MVP talk, although he’s got no chance of winning it on a team with such a poor defense (see Joe Burrow last year). He gets Ceedee Lamb back this week after injury, he hit 100 yards in both his full games this season and will probably be around there again this week, although George Pickens will hope to retain some of the targets he’s seen without Lamb there, he’s scored in 5 games in a row and Jake Ferguson has had a lot of touches in recent weeks as well. Javonte Williams has been racking them up as well with 6 TDs so far this season, and without Miles Sanders there’s not much of an alternate option there for them.

Should be a fun one on SkyNFL. Due to the injury news on both sides I’ve got to take the Cowboys covering, probably in a high-scoring affair as their defense is poop. George Pickens anytime – 13/8, Ryan Flournoy o5.5 rec yards – He might only get 1 target, but he’ll only need a catch to top his line here.

Falcons +2 @ 49ers: 47

Are the Falcons good? They’ve figured giving it to Bijan every time makes sense as they beat the Bills last weekend while the 49ers had another big injury in their loss to the Buccs.

Again, health is important and it’s all one-way in this one. The Falcons should give Bijan Robinson another 25+ touches and that may well be enough as his explosivity and evasiveness shows up every weekend. 5.8 yards per carry and 14 yards per catch, he’s pretty good, although only 3 TDs so far this year. Tyler Allgeier has been getting a lot as well with double-digit carries in all but one game this season. Drake London caught 10 of 16 targets last weekend as they used their studs while Kyle Pitts dropped under his 4 catch usual. There’s not much behind those two in the passing game, which is useful.

The 49ers lost Fred Warner on defense and couldn’t stop much after that in Tampa, they will regroup here and should figure something out, although missing linebackers against one the of the best run games in the league isn’t ideal. It looks like Mac Jones is starting at QB again, so Kendrick Bourne should have another good game, although the return of George Kittle from IR mixes things up there and makes it a little tougher to call, it probably rules out Jake Tonges from any bets. Jauan Jennings was playing with cracked ribs last week and it showed, he’ll want more with another week of health in him. Christian McCaffrey is most of their offense though, another 7 receptions for him, and his first rushing TD of the season last week.

I respect the coaching of Kyle Shanahan and Robert Salah on their defense but I’ve got to take the Falcons getting the points here, they’re so much healthier. Kendrick Bourne o47.5 rec. yards – He won’t get 142 again, but I still think he’ll be used enough to get 50+, ah, god damn it. o6.5 rec. yards for Jake Tonges – Again, he won’t get 50+ but they’ve dropped this to essentially one catch, I’ve got to take that.

Buccs +6 @ Lions: 52.5

The first of yet another stupid MNF double-header is another with a very injured team, and a high total. The Bucs beat the 49ers last week while the Lions were blunted against the Chiefs.

The Bucs should have Mike Evans back, but are probably without Emeka Egbuka who they are hopeful of playing but it doesn’t look like it. Chris Godwin misses again. Evans returns and should immediately go back into a big role for them with so little else around, he’s lined at 65.5 and I’d be thinking over on that one. Sterling Shepard is probably the 2 in the passing game, but Cade Otton and Rachaad White should get touches there as well. Kam and Tez Johnson both scored last week as Baker Mayfield dragged his team to the win. Rachaad White will be the RB1, but Sean Tucker will get a few carries as well, both scored last weekend.

The Lions struggled against a good Chiefs defense but shouldn’t face the same issue here, although I do love Vita Vea and he’ll fill gaps in the run game. Jahmyr Gibbs is one of my favourite players to watch in the league, and he’ll bounce back here while David Montgomery would probably want to step up a little. Amon-Ra St. Brown remains one of the best WR’s in the league and gets a good matchup against a beaten-up Bucs secondary. Will it be a LaPorta or Jameson game? I think I’m leaning to the deep shots for Williams here.

I do think the Lions win, but I’d have to lean to the Bucs on the spread, they’ve kept games close all year. Jameson Williams longest reception o22.5 yards, or 30+ reception at 17/10.

Texans +3 @ Seahawks: 41

The Texans come off their bye to travel to Seattle, who won another on the road in Jacksonville, but will want to notch up a home win for the first time this year.

Two quite restricted offenses on show here, Nico Collins is the majority of the passing game for the Texans and he gets a decent matchup here, 72.5 is a high line but he should top it. Dalton Schultz the second target for most of their games this year and then not too much behind with rookie Jayden Higgins still settling and Xavier Hutchinson popping up occasionally. Nick Chubb is back to the RB1 after a random Woody Marks game a few weeks ago, the OL is so poor it makes any prop tough to trust.

The Seahawks are pretty much entirely Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the passing game and it’s worked well for them, his lowest this season is 79 yards as he leads the league in yards so far this year. He should get anoter 10 targets but this is a solid Texans defense so I’d probably be looking under 88.5 yards for him. Cooper Kupp has become a little more solid behind him and AJ Barner seems useful in the Redzone for them. Kenneth Walker gets most of the work between the 20’s but Zach Charbonnet seems to be their guy in on the ground in the red zone. Neither has been particularly efficient so far.

The Texans have been a solid UNDER team this year so I’d be looking that way and with the Seahawks home record this year I’d have to look to the Texans covering after their bye week. Chubb o36.5 rush yards, 9/2 for AJ Barner anytime at BetFred is a nice price, 7/2 at the more mainstream books not bad either.