Week 8 of the season and the key bit of information this week is that the games are an hour earlier in the UK as we’ve turned our clocks back a week before the US does. So we’re looking at 5pm, 805/825 and 0020 this weekend. The best time to watch the late games without having to worry about work the next day.
There are 6 teams on Bye this week and it’s made life tough for a number of my fantasy teams having the Lions and Rams as 2 of them, along with Seahawks, Cardinals, Jaguars and Raiders. It does mean a smaller slate, but at least there’s only one MNF game this weekend.
The London games are done, but we’ve still got Munich and Madrid coming in recent weeks, although the Dolphins are involved in one of those, so it might not be the spectacle they had intended when they planned it.
Make sure you check out the bottom of the post as I absolutely have to put together a Tight End Trixie or two!
If you missed it, check out Full10Yards on YouTube as we did our group power rankings this week, the Chiefs, somehow weren’t top despite 5 of us, including myself putting them there! I already need to change mine after TNF where the Chargers smashed the Vikings. I was expecting Lamar back this week, the Vikings definitely need dropping, and I may have allowed slight bias to enter my rankings with where the Steelers are, but they may well lose the AFC North lead by tomorrow morning and had just lost to Joe Flacco.
Giants +7 @ Eagles: 44 (C5)
A re-match from a couple of weeks ago where the Giants shocked the Eagles on TNF, both teams looked good last week, the Giants kicker has been removed after his missed XP’s cost them the game while the Eagles rolled over the Vikings with their passing game.
Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo are fun to watch, the rookie QB led his team to a big 4th quarter lead last week before they collapsed, he did get them ahead again with a late TD, but they couldn’t hold on for a shock in Denver. They seemed to mix in Tyrone Tracy a lot more than most of us would want on the ground so I’m hesitant to go with any Skattebo props, the o18.5 rush yards on Tracy looks good though. The passing game looks to Wan’Dale and Theo Johnson for the most part, the lack of a WR1 might actually help them in this one. Darius Slayton is back from injury to add a more reliable deep threat.
The Eagles feel too volatile this year to go all the way, but they can win any game by a significant amount and players returning last week helped with OL and DL. Hurt has moved the ball well over the last couple, including the game against the Giants, so they should be fine doing that tonight. Dallas Goedert and AJB had 9+ targets each when these faced a couple of weeks ago, the loss of AJ Brown for this week could be pivotal. Goedert has been racking up the TDs and Devonta Smith had his big game for the season, so he’ll probably be back around 50 yards this weekend. I don’t think I can trust Saquon, which is something I wasn’t expecting to say this year, under 83.5 seems the most sensible prop for him, he’s only topped that line once this year and the Giants DL is very good, ALTHOUGH I have talked myself out of that now I’ve seen that Brown is missing. They will probably try and run the ball more.
I won’t be taking the spread on this one, obviously the Eagles should get their revenge, but the Giants are fun and spunky, I’d lean to the G-Men getting a TD, over on the total. Tracy o18.5 rush yards.
Bears +2.5 @ Ravens: 45 (412)
The Bears haven’t hit the heights that many expected so far this year, but they’ve been grinding some wins, as they come in at 4-2 after 4 wins in a row, despite their bye week, the Ravens are having to start Tyler Huntley, surely he’ll be better than Cooper Rush, but he’s nowhere near Lamar. The line has dropped from 7 to 2.5 and the total is down from 49.5
The Bears aren’t going anywhere is they make the post-season but it’s growth on where they were last season. D’Andre Swift looked good again last week, he scored and they actually invovled another RB with rookie Monangai getting touches and a TD as well. Rome Odunze is the WR1 there, he failed to score for the first time this year but still led them in targets, DJ Moore had a few more yards. It looks like Loveland might have taken the TE1 spot after their bye week.
The Ravens are obviously tough to call without Lamar once more, but they will surely look to get Derrick Henry back nearer his usual self after their bye week and the mobility of Huntley over Rush should help that. It does mean the passing game isn’t really worth a mention, Flowers, Bateman, Andrews, Likely… who knows.
I mean, the Bears with 4 wins in a row, getting points against a backup QB… I’m definitely leaning towards them, but who the hell knows, the Ravens are well coached and have had the bye week to get their shit sorted out, they surely can’t be terrible again. I do think their defense will continue to struggle though, Caleb Williams o1.5 passing TDs – 13/10.
49ers +2.5 @ Texans: 42 (404)
Kyle Shanahan continues to show he’s one of the better coaches in the league as they’ve kept winning despite injuries, having CMcC definitely helps that. The Texans are volatile and without Nico Collins tonight which is a big hit to them after a loss on MNF.
It’s Mac Jones again as Brock Purdy still struggles, but if the team is winning and has the easiest remaining schedule, then why rush him back. Mac Jones has done well as their starting QB, and Christian McCaffrey seems to be enough to get wins by himself, 200+ yards and 2 TDs last week for him as he leads the league in carries. George Kittle returned and did nothing last week but will have liked being back on the field at least. Jauan Jennings led the WRs, with just 31 yards as they went away from Kendrick Bourne now they’ve got other options.
The Texans are a solid defense and that keeps them in the running in games but they’re just not very good on offense. The OL has got better but is still poor so the run game struggles and without Nico Collins I’m not too sure how they’re going to move the ball. Dalton Schultz had 9 receptions last week and has been the one reliable constant for them, but rookie Jayden Higgins did nothing, he has to step up here. Jaylin Noel was the positive rookie with 77 yards. Woody Marks out-rush Chubb 10 to 5 but was ineffective with it, although he did notch a receiving TD.
49ers getting points? Yes please. It’s a low total for a reason, I think taking Texans team total under 22.5 makes sense
Bills -7 @ Panthers: 46.5
Talking of volatile. The Bills needed their bye week having lost two in a row going into it, while the Panthers beat the Jets in a low-scorer last weekend.
I’ll admit I’ve not really looked into why the Bills have fallen off a cliff in their last two, it looks like being unable to stop the opposition is the reason over their offense, although the lack of reliable or elite passing weapons definitely doesn’t help things. Josh Palmer leading your team in receiving isn’t where you want to be. I would think they go back to getting completions to Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid assuming he’s back from injury. Keon Coleman hasn’t become the player they needed, yet. James Cook will hopefully bounce back.
The Panthers have a good looking 1-2 on the ground now, Chuba Hubbard got the official start last week but Rico Dowdle finished with the higher yardage. I don’t know how they’ll go this week, but would have to imagine it will be similar and they’ll try to share carries. They’ve got Andy Dalton starting at QB with Bryce Young out, he finished 4/7 for 60 yards last weekend, all completions to Xavier Legette who scored their TD. Tet McMillan has looked good and JaTavion Sanders returning helps them at TE as well.
The Bills surely bounce back against the Red Rifle, but giving up a TD on the road? That’s a tough spot to bet them. Xavier Legette o33.5 rec, yards, Legette anytime – 9/2 (365) – I wanted his receptions, but that price is too big in my eyes.
Browns +7 @ Patriots: 40.5
The Browns won again, with a thumping win against the terrible, terrible Dolphins. The Patriots have a real chance of taking the AFC East with a very nice remaining schedule and after Drake Maye set the Patriots completion percentage record last week with 21/23 against the Titans.
The Browns run game got it done with Quishon Judkins looking very good while running in 3 TDs, although he actually went under his line with 84 rush yards (it was 85.5). The passing game wasn’t great but the weather was poor so it didn’t need to be. Harold Fannin led them with David Njoku missing out, although it looks like he will return here. Jerry Jeudy will be on the field. That’s about it for the Browns offense, they use their strong defense to get short fields and use the run game.
The Pats have won 4 in a row including against the Bills and Drake Maye looks like the best QB from his draft class at the moment! Sitting 4th in QBR on the season, top 10 in yards and TDs and keeping it quite safe, but this will be the best defense he’s faced all season. They seem to have giving up on TreVeyon Henderson already, just 2 carries for him in a blow out with Rhamondre Stevenson getting the main role once more, and the passing game is missing studs but varied, with Stefon Diggs leading them there. Boutte and Pop Douglas are good deep threats and the TE duo of Henry and Hooper associates works well for them.
Have to go under on the total, I think this will be quite a tight game so I’ll be leaning to the Browns getting the points as well.
Dolphins +7.5 @ Falcons: 44.5
The Dolphins are absolutely terrible. They’re a broken franchise with a broken QB. The Falcons are (apparently my word of the week) volatile. They beat the Bills and then lost miserably to the 49ers last weekend.
De’von Achane is the only player worth mentioning for the Dolphins. Darren Waller is done for the season, and probably his career. Again.
The Falcons will be starting Kirk Cousins as Michael Penix misses out, he knows how to throw the ball constantly to Drake London so their passing offense shouldn’t change too much. Bijan Robinson is a beast and will probably be 60% of their game here. Darnell Mooney returning last week gave them another passing option alongside London and Pitts at least.
The Falcons should hit 30 in this one, so Falcons o26.5 points seems fine to me. I think they’ll cover but they’ve been so up-and-down this year I won’t be taking it.
Jets +6.5 @ Bengals: 44.5
Justin Fields is back in for the 0-7 Jets! He was meant to be dropped this week and his team owner had some less-than-complimentary words for him, but Tyrod Taylor is out with a knee injury so we get another Fields day for the Jets. The Bengals are coming off their mini-bye after TNF… Should be a good spot, but they’re 0-8 in those games in recent years.
So Justin Fields is in, 4 passing TDs this year, 31st in QBR, but ZERO Interceptions. Well done you. One thing he does do well is rush with the ball but they just don’t seem to have focused on that in their game-plan for him, that might be something they’re forced to do here with so few passing weapons out there for him. Garret Wilson is out, their main guy, Josh Reynolds is out, Breece Hall is questionable but will play. It’s a flaming heap of garbage for them. Expect Mason Taylor to do a lot I guess, oh yeah, their best CB, Sauce Gardner is out as well.
The Bengals beat the Steelers in a high-scoring affair 10 days ago to keep their season alive, a win here could sent them top of the AFC North so it’s safe to say it’s an important one. Flacco has kept the ball safe and that’s all they really needed, just don’t turn it over when you’ve got Ja’Marr Chase on your team. Chase set franchise records hauling in 16 of his 23 targets last week and you’d like to think that would be the plan here against a weak Jets defense, but this Bengals coaching group will likely not do that. Tee Higgins is looking for his 9th home game in a row with a TD, so look towards him today, and I think with them being big favourites they’ll probably try and get the run game going now they seem to have figured something out on the offensive line.
The Bengals should win, and do it very comfortably but this is the Bengals, and two years ago they lost to Mike White when he started as the backup for the Jets. If anyone can do it, the Bengals can. Tee Higgins anytime – 6/4 (Betway), 7/5 (WillHill) looking o42.5 rush yards for Fields as well as an assumption that they just don’t have much else, but I’ll not do that as an official one.
Bucs -4 @ Saints: 46.5
Mike Evans 1000yard streak is over as he’s done for the year with a broken collarbone, but the Bucs have found ways to carry on winning. They’re also without Bucky Irving again here. The Saints have been plucky but not really been close to winning.
The NFC South is a weird division where anyone can beat anyone and that puts me off the Bucs a little, but they have been very fun to watch this year with Baker getting MVP shouts (mainly from his own fans) as he keep them scoring without studs at WR. Emeka Egbuka has been outstanding so far this year and Johnson and Johnson have been cleaning up late in games with Tez and Kam looking pretty good for the most part. Cade Otton and Sterling Shepard are fairly useful in the mid game as well. Rachaad White looks good on the ground with Sean Tucker getting the odd bit of work.
Chris Olave looks good for the Saints as the main target for Spencer Rattler (who isn’t going to be a long-term starter in the league). Juwan Johnson had his 4+ receptions as usual, as did Shaheed who hit 4 once again. Kamara is getting the carries but not doing too much in general but this should be a decent matchup for the Saints offense against a fairly weak Bucs secondary.
Got to look to the Bucs really, but this matchup tends to throw up surprises so I won’t be putting money on that. They’ve ticked Shaheed up to 4.5! He’s doing 4 a games exactly so I’ll avoid him this week.
Cowboys +3.5 @ Broncos: 51 (412)
The best offense against the best defense… this should be fun. Dak Prescott is playing very well while the Broncos have had the most sacks of any team in the last 10 years over the first 7 weeks of the season.
CeeDee Lamb returned with a casual 5/110/1 last week as they eased him back into things and George Pickens still topped 80 yards through the air as well. This week should be a Pickens game with Pat Surtain probably on Lamb, what a matchup that is! Jake Ferguson carries on being reliable at TE and the run game for the Cowboys still looks effective with Javonte Williams hitting 100+ and a TD once more last weekend.
The Broncos are 11 sacks ahead of anyone else this year and unsurprisingly lead in QB hits, it’s safe to say their defense is working well. Bo Nix was horrible for 3 quarters last week before blowing up in the 4th quarter so they’re tough to predict, he hasn’t been good this year. Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin had 10 targets apiece and Marvin Mims had a big game last weekend, Sutton the only one who’s reliably targeted though. JK Dobbins has run well this year and RJ Harvey has been fine as the 3rd down back.
Strength v Strength with the Cowboys offense vs the Broncos defense. Offenses usually win in those spots and I am leaning to the Cowboys getting the points, and under on the total due to my respect for Pat Surtain. Pickens o59.5 rec. yards.
Titans +14.5 @ Colts: 48 (404)
Top vs. Bottom; The Titans are poop. The Colts are the surprise package of the year.
I was high on Tyjae Spears last week, and… well, he did have the most rush yards of his team with a remarkable 22 from 5 attempts, far exceeding the 6 for 18 yards for Tony Pollard, as well as 3 receptions for Spears. I am sticking with my thoughts that he gets more of the ball here. They are without Ridley again so Chimere Dike and Elic Ayomanor need to be the guys for them again, although Chig Okonkwo should do well (Apparently the cousin of the Wrexham goalie who was once on-loan at Crewe).
The Colts have been pretty dominant on both sides of the ball, the offense being especially effective with Daniel Jones at QB who sits second in QBR this year. JT leads the league in yards and rushing TDs having added another 3 last week, taking him to 10 rushing TDs, and he’s averaging over 5 yards per carry. Alec Pierce is back and being used as an effective deep shot and Michael Pittman and Tyler Warren look great in the mid range. They look a very well run team.
This Titans defense is pretty good, so I’m not going to take the Colts covering 2 TDs, that’s silly. I wanted to take the Colts in the 1st quarter, but I can’t do -3.5 for them. Alec Pierce 30+ yard reception – 23/10. I will probably ladder Spears receptions again as they will surely be trailing. 3/4/5 at 10/11, 21/10 and 4/1.
Packers -3 @ Steelers: 45.5
Aaron Rodgers revenge game, thank god it’s hidden away in the late slot so we don’t have to listen to the fawning over the almighty hero of all football. The Packers looks to keep the pressure on the Lions in the NFC North, the Steelers seek to bounce back after a loss last weekend.
The Packers have Christian Watson back to help their passing game which is useful for them with Reed still missing out. Romeo Doubs has been reliable for them and Tucker Kraft looks like the best TE in the league in all honesty, Matthew Golden has been fine in his rookie season, but as always, I still really struggle to judge them. They rely on their run game with Josh Jacobs and that’s probably where they’ll look this week after the Steelers made Chase Brown look effective in their last match, so I expect 20+ carries for Jacobs here.
The Steelers have been fine and Rodgers, in fairness, hasn’t been the reason they’ve lost games, he had another 4 passing TDs last week to take him to 14 on the season, all of them last week were to their tight ends as they took advantage of the matchup. DK Metcalf will get his 50-odd yards, and then it’s pick your poison with the rest of the passing corps. Jaylen Warren is the definite 1 on the ground, he averaged nearly 8 yards per carry against the terrible Bengals defense last weekend.
Two teams I struggle to judge, the Packers defense is excellent though and Rodgers is a statue so I’m definitely leaning to them on the spread, although the Steelers defense will surely be better than last week, so under on the total.
Commanders 12.5 @ Chiefs: 48
Marcus Mariota gets the start for the Commies with Jayden Daniels out with a hamstring injury, the Chiefs should just roll on.
Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel return for the Commanders so they’ll at least have someone other than Zach Ertz to target in the passing game this week. Chris Moore and Jaylin Lane were their main guys last weekend and that’s not a great place to be. JCM (Bill) ran well again, but their lack of overall offense cost them any chance of hanging with the Cowboys, but this is the Chiefs defense so the run game won’t be great and making Mariota throw the ball probably blunts most of what they want to do.
I had the Chiefs as my #1 in rankings after the return of Rashee Rice gave Mahomes his favourite target back and they got him straight back into the action with 2 TDs on plays, allowing him to stroll into the endzone as they eased him back on limited snaps, 33 snaps, 10 targets, 7/42/2 for him last week. Xavier Worthy had his usual rush attempt and Travis Kelce led them in yards against a woeful Raiders team. Tyquan Thornton caught his usual deep shot though and the run game is looking better as well with Smith now mixing in with Pacheco and Hunt. They shut out the Raiders so I think we can say their defense isn’t bad either.
Yup, I’m at that point of the season where I’ve accepted the Chiefs are making the Super Bowl again. They should win and do it comfortably. I don’t take this kind of spread, but I’d look to the Commanders team total under 17.5 with Mariota in at QB.
TIGHT END TRIXIES!!!
I love my TE touchdown bets; they don’t get a huge amount of receptions in games, but that usually gives them good odds to find the endzone on a weekly basis.
Shorter odds; Theo Johnson 18/5 (VirginBet), 7/2 (365), Dalton Kincaird 9/4 (Skybet), Tucker Kraft – 13/8 (SpreadEx), 6/4 (Hills) – 35/1 the best for the three at BetFred.
Johnson and Dart have a good connection, Kincaid is back from injury, the Bills should score well and they don’t seem to have trust in anyone else, Kraft is probably the best TE in the league this season against a Steelers team who gave up a lot of points last time out.
Longer odds; Jeremy Ruckert – 9/1 (Betway), 7/1 (Sky/PP), Harold Fannin’ – 9/2 (PP/Skybet), Mo Alie-Cox – 12/1 (365), – 527/1 for the 3, best priced at PP/Skybet. £2.50 Trixie returns £1,835
Bengals allowed 4 TD’s to the TE last week and the Jets don’t have many options. Fannin seems preferred over Njoku for the Browns (Njoku was 5/1 as well if you fancied the other side) and… my boy! Big Mo! Usually in there blocking, but Gigantor does pop up with a TD every now and then, it wouldn’t be TE day without me backing him.
TouchdownTips 
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