And some teams are already living on a prayer… I mentioned on X last week that the odds on the Ravens taking the AFC North were shorter than I’d have expected for a team starting 1-5, and they’ve since won both game, last week with Tyler Huntley at QB and a dominant display on Thursday night in Miami where they easily beat the hapless Dolphins with Lamar Jackson throwing 4 TDs in his return to action. They’re now a stand-out 5/6 at QuinnBet and shorter everywhere else. I would be a little shocked if they don’t win the division now, it is not good this year.
National Tight End day has been and gone and there were a lot of TD’s for the position, but I was unable to get them in the same trixie, both TE’s ended up scoring for the Browns, and Tucker Kraft rounded out the Sunday action with a huge game against a very poor Steelers defense.
Another Sunday though means another chance to win a contest on FantasyGameday.app – If you’ve still not given it a go yet, use code TDTIP when you sign up for a free matched contest. Contest now run from £3 up to £25 on both single games and the whole Sunday slate.
Vikings +8.5 @ Lions: 48.5 (C5)
JJ McCarthy returns for the Vikings as they try to keep up with the others in their division while the Lions look to keep the pressure up on the Packers at the top, sitting half a game behind at the moment due to their loss in Week 1.
The Vikings have been playing an injured Carson Wentz to give JJ McCarthy more time to heal, but Wentz now having surgery means they’re forced to play the inexperienced lad at QB, probably not a great thing for them but he’s got to get some game-time eventually. He started the season as their QB but it’s not been pretty for him, 24 completions in his two starts, just over 50%, 2 TDs, 3 INTs and now coming in behind a dodgy offensive line. Not a great situation, although the Lions missing a couple of players on defense might help a little.
Aaron Jones returned for the Vikings last week to help the run game, and he’ll share carries with Jordan Mason who seems to have hit a bit of a wall, and Jones is likely the pass-catching back. The passing game has looked better with Jordan Addison back from suspension, he and Justin Jefferson are a good 1-2 in that position and TJ Hockenson will get his targets as well. Jefferson 6/13 and Hock 4/7 with McCarthy at QB, although with Addison back the numbers for Hock will probably disappear.
The Lions are fairly unstoppable on offense, especially at home where Amon-Ra St. Brown has 7 in his last 8 games as the main target in the passing game. A passing game where they probably want a little more from their bit-part players. Jameson Williams hasn’t had a good year, Sam LaPorta is struggling to get back to his play-making best after his first year and Kalif Raymond is a deep threat who doesn’t seem to be doing much this year.
BUT the passing game doesn’t really matter that much when you’ve got Jahmyr Gibbs who’s arguably the best back in the league at the moment on the ground and through the air, he’s nearing 800 combined yards and sitting on 7 TDs so far, and unfortunately for me as a Montgomery owner he’s taking most of the work now with Monty who, apart from an explosion against the Ravens is averaging under 4 yards per carry this year.
Should be an easy win for the Lions who are by far the better team here and are very good at home. I want to say over, but I think it makes more sense taking the Lions team total over as I don’t trust JJMc at all. McCarthy o0.5 interception – 4/6
Colts -3 @ Steelers: 50.5 (412)
The Colts are at the top of the AFC having scored 30 points in every game but one while the Steelers defense has been giving up a TON of points as Tomlin tries to keep them at their 0.500 mark.
I keep waiting for things to slow down for the Colts offense but it’s not happened so far, so I don’t think I can worry about it happening in this one. Jonathan Taylor is the best RB in the league (sorry Jahmyr) and is leading in the important categories, yards and TDs as he notched another hat-trick last week, something he’s done 4 times already this season, just remarkable so far this year. Daniel Jones has been moving the ball well with Tyler Warren, Michael Pittman and Josh Downs all pitching in, in the passing game, and then the deep shots to Alec Pierce who they love chucking the ball up to.
Aaron Rodgers keeps the scoreboard ticking on offense for the Steelers but their defense is aging and has been poor so far this year, which makes for fun games, but is something the Steelers won’t be too happy about, although that doesn’t seem to be changing so far. Rodgers o1.5 passing TD is a typically safe bet, he has some big-bodied guys to get the ball to, he loves his TE’s and they’ve got DK Metcalf as well for more standard plays. Friermuth, Washington and Jonnu Smith are a good threesome at TE. Calvin Austin is their WR2 which isn’t great for them. Jaylen Warren is the definite RB1 with Kenneth Gainwell behind him, I usually like the low lines on RB2’s but I won’t be touching Gainers here.
The Colts should win and cover, but I’ll be taking the over on the game despite it being a high total. I’ll probably go on Alec Pierce longest reception again o23.5 at 5/6, or 8/5 for 30+ for him.
49ers -2.5 @ Giants: 48.5 (404)
The 49ers are starting Mac Jones again, one of the benefits of having the easiest schedule in history is that they don’t have to rush Brock Purdy back with his poorly ankle. The Giants had some hope for the few games, but the horror injury to Cam Skattebo last week makes that a little harder to hold on to. It sounds like surgery has gone well for him though and he should be back in pre-season next year.
So, Mac Jones is in again, they’ve not lost anyone else, for once, so Jauan Jennings probably leads them in receptions with George Kittle looking positive in that aspect as well. That does mean they’ve gone away from Kendrick Bourne though who had a few crackers, although he’s still the WR2 ahead of Demarcus Robinson. Christian McCaffrey has had more touches than anyone this year and should bounce back after a poor match against the Texans last weekend (which cost me a 4-fold…).
The Giants will be running out Tyrone Tracy as the main back with Devin Singletary in there as well, and maybe it will mean more for Jaxson Dart who is a mobile QB. The passing game has been good enough for them with the kid at QB and they missed out on a big play for Darius Slayton last week due to a terrible PI call, Slayton is the deep threat and looks like he’ll matchup well with Dart at QB. Wan’Dale Robinson had a good game against the Broncos and Theo Johnson looks like he’s got a good connection at TE for them.
The defensive front of the Giants could cause some issues here, so while I would lean to the 49ers covering the spread I won’t be betting that or the total. Slayton longest reception o20.5, I’d probably take o18.5 rush yards for Singletary too.
Falcons +5 @ Patriots: 45
The Falcons are bi-polar and as such proving utterly un-trustworthy while the Patriots go from strength-to-strength with Drake Maye tearing up defenses.
The Falcons have one of the best run games in the league but were inept against the Dolphins last weekend where they had Kirk Cousins in at QB. I don’t rate Michael Penix, but he returns this week which must be a good thing for them after Cousins’ performance last week. They have Drake London back at WR as well which is big for their passing game as it’s pretty much him and Kyle Pitts, although Darnell Mooney returned last week and had a fair game. Bijan Robinson is fantastic but couldn’t get it done last week, so who knows what he’ll do here.
The Pats have started slowly, but the mid-deep range passing of Maye has been killing teams with Keyshon Boutte scoring in their last 3 games, Stefon Diggs doing well and Mack Hollins looking to make some plays as well, they’ve quickly become a quite exciting team to watch. They are without Rhamondre Stevenson this weekend at running back which surely means they will have to unleash TreVeyon Henderson for the first time as they’ve seemingly limited the rookies snap count so far. With Rhamo and Antonio Gibson both out there doesn’t seem much choice for them here. Terrell Jennings looks like the RB2, but a best of 4/1 is terrible. Hunter Henry is showing he’s a good TE as well, with some good displays this year. Late update – It looks like they’ve brought in D’Ernest Johnson who can have big games, and at 10/1 is probably worth a punt, even though he won’t know the playbook.
The Pats are the form team of the league but it would be typical Atlanta for them to get the job done and pull off the win here. Lean Pats to cover, but I won’t be betting it. The over looks good though. D’Ernest Johnson anytime – 10/1 (Sky/PP)
Panthers +13 @ Packers: 44
The Panthers were tooth and clawless against the Bills with Andy Dalton at QB last week, while the Packers rolled on with a win over their former hero Aaron Rodgers and his Steelers team.
The Panthers have Bryce Young back at QB which looks a big upgrade on Dalton who was riddled with mistakes against the Bills last weekend. It’s not a good spot for Young though who seems to hold the ball a lot and that’s not a good idea against one of the better pass rushes in the league. They have said that Rico Dowdle will be the starter and get significant touches so I think it’s him over Chuba Hubbard if you believe them, but really both should get a lot of carries as they try to protect their QB. Xavier Legette did nothing after I pushed him last week, he’s behind Tet McMillan in the pecking order, a player who has had a decent start to his NFL career. They’ve got options at TE now with Sanders returning alongside Tremble and Mitch Evans.
I just don’t seem to be able to get behind the Packers, they’re going about their job well as they do every regular season and they’ve not really faced any struggles in their wins but they rarely blow anyone out and seem to play down to their opponents which always worries me a little. Josh Jacobs will carry on doing what he does on the ground, he’s scored in all but one game this year, and the return of Christian Watson last week gives them more options in the passing game with Tucker Kraft and Romeo Doubs the main guys along with Watson. Rookie Matthew Golden hasn’t done too much but is explosive and they’ve got a lot of others who will sneak the odd catch but can’t be bet on.
The Packers will win but I can’t go near them covering 13 points, so lean Panthers on the spread and nothing on the total. Chuba Hubbard o7.5 rec yards
Bears -2.5 @ Bengals: 51
Talking of untrustworthy NFC North teams… the Bears don’t seem to be able to string together a good run of form although the loss to the Ravens last week wasn’t too shocking and they get a matchup here against the Bengals defense which allowed nearly 40 points to the Jets without Garrett Wilson last weekend, and apparently still have Zac Taylor calling the shots.
The Bears are without D’Andre Swift who’s had the bulk of the workload most weeks so it looks like it will be Kyle Monangai leading the running game with Roschon Johnson behind him, Monangai has looked all right when he’s had the ball and this is the best matchup he could have wished for as his first start. Rome Odunze has been the WR1 for them and he’s done well, topping 100 yards for the second time this season last weekend, although the Bengals have one good CB and he’ll surely be on Odunze. DJ Moore had his best game of the season last week and Olamide Zaccheaus continues to have me spell-checking his name as a player of some relevance. 7 for 33 yards last week is a crazy stat-line. Luther Burden is also out.
The Bengals look like they’ll be starting Joe Flacco despite a shoulder injury, seemingly him at 70% is better than Jake Browning, but that does add some worry to the Bengals offensive side of things, an area which has been ticking well enough for much of the season still, which you’d hope it would with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins at WR for them. Chase Brown has run well in recent weeks and Samaje Perine got a lot of work last week as well, and Noah Fant is a decent TE too. But the defense in Cincinnati is absolutely shocking and the play-calling of Zac Taylor must be laughable to everyone who’s not a fan of them. For us who are fans, it’s predictably awful and something that’s been there for years. I will admit I was slightly tilted on X last weekend after the game.
It’s not a big spread… I don’t trust the Bears to cover it, I don’t trust the Bengals to do it either, so a firm avoid on that side of things, but there should be points for both teams so lean over on the total. Anytime Tee at home – 6/4 (WillHill)
Broncos +1.5 @ Texans: 40
The Broncos got an easy win over the Cowboys last weekend as their defense stymied Dak and had the backup starting by the 4th quarter, while the Texans defense got it done against the 49ers.
Bo Nix had probably his best game of the year against the hapless Cowboys defense as he notched up 4 TDs, with none for Courtland Sutton for once, his usual main target. Troy Franklin led the team in receptions and yards as they moved the ball around a bit more, Evan Engram had 4 receptions again at TE, a line he’s hit in each of the last 5 games. Marvin Mims and Pat Bryant pretty much round out the pass-catchers but they do use a lot so it’s tough to pick any to bet on. The run game should still be mostly JK Dobbins despite RJ Harvey’s hat-trick last weekend on about half the touches of his team-mate.
The Texans should be at relative full-strength in the passing game for the first time this year with Nico Collins, Christian Kirk and Dalton Schultz all looking like they’ll play here. The better news for them is that Pat Surtain is out so Nico Collins gets a better matchup than he would have done otherwise, and that is good news for the rest of the pass-catchers. Jayden Higgins stood up last week with Collins out, as did Xavier Hutchinson and Jaylin Noel… they’ve got options in the passing game. Woody Marks and Nick Chubb will share the work on the ground, Marks looking good in the passing game as well.
An interesting game on paper, but one that probably won’t show up on the scoreboard with two of the best defenses in the league in this game, meaning I’ve got to lean under on the total. I’d lean to the Texans covering. Nick Chubb anytime – 11/5 (888), 2/1 PP/Sky – Without Surtain teams are picking on Riley Moss who gives up a TON of DPI’s, if he does that in the endzone then you’re looking at a run from the one and that should be Nick Chubb… that’s the theory here anyway.
Chargers -9.5 @ Titans: 43.5
The Chargers had Joe Alt back on the OL on TNF last week as they strolled past the Vikings while the Titans lost another one.
Justin Herbert’s numbers with and without Joe Alt are stark so I think it’s safe to say they’ll be fine on offense this week with Alt coming through his return to action without issue last week. The eruption of Orende Gadsden in recent weeks has given them yet another options in the passing game as he’s now scored in consecutive games with 240 yards in those. Ladd McConkey scored as well as they were able to just run the game out with Kimani Vidal, such was their dominance. I’d expect at least something from Quientin Johnston who didn’t even get targeted last week. Along with Keenan Allen and maybe now Tre Harris it’s a varied attack. Vidal is the main man on the ground and looking good with it.
The Titans are a frustrating team to watch. They continue to use Pollard despite Spears being the better back and Cam Ward continues to look for deep shots while getting battered by opposing rushers instead of just dropping off short passes to his RB’s and TE’s. Good news for Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike who seems to be his favourite target now he’s settled into things in his rookie year. Not much else to talk about here.
Chargers should win and although I don’t like spreads this big, especially on the road, but the Titans are terrible.
Jaguars -2.5 @ Raiders: 44
Two teams who avoided defeat last week, mainly becuase they were both on bye. The Jags look to keep up thier hope for a wildcard spot while the Raiders will be hoping to get something from Jeanty now they’re through their bye week.
The Jags have put Travis Hunter on IR, so he’s out for at least 4 games, meaning they’re down to pretty much just Brian Thomas Jnr. on offense now, someone who’s barely been able to catch a ball this season, probably not a good thing for them. Travis Etienne will get most of the carries on the ground and should have appreciated the rest week, with Tuten behind him. Hunter Long is the de facto TE1 but he’s not great. Parker Washington, Dyami Brown will have to step up, Tim Patrick will probably get a couple of touches as well.
The Raiders have been terrible this year, Geno Smith is not a good QB, despite being relatively solid in fantasy, so they’re struggling to move the ball at all, although the return of Brock Bowers should help them immensely and he’ll surely lead them in targets and yards in his return. Jakobi Meyers hasn’t done too much, Tre Tucker has had big games, but duds as well. It’s all on Jeanty and Bowers really. The rookie running back has been getting the touches but such is the team, he hasn’t been able to do too much with them.
Such is my dislike of the Raiders I’ll lean to the Jags, but I doubt many will be watching this one.
Saints +14 @ Rams: 44
The Saints made the change halfway through last week’s game and they’ve stuck with it with Tyler Shough starting at QB, the Rams come off their bye week as the biggest favourite of the week.
It was still messy with Shough (Shug, apparently) last week, but he kept it a little safer than Rattler did, so they may as well see how it’s going with the new QB, neither will be a starter in the league in the long-term. Realistically they should want to lose out and get a better pick in April. They have options still, Olave, Johnson, Shaheed all pretty reliable through the air. Alvin Kamara has struggled behind a poor offensive line and on a poor team though. Shaheed’s reception line ticked up to 4.5 last week and he still went over it… with 9! Olave had 8, Johnson had 5 as they were chasing the whole game and avoided looking more than 10 yards down the field.
Matthew Stafford became the first QB to throw 5 TDs in an international game as they beat the Jags with Devante Adams getting 3 of them as Puka Nacua missed out, Puka returns here though so expect him to get 10+ targets again and Adams to revert to a red-zone threat (which, in fairness he was last time they played). Higbee will get a few looks, but there’s not too much behind the main guys here. Tutu Atwell has done nothing all year and is now on IR. Kyren Williams has run well without too much success, just 5 TDs this year, but he’s still the heavy 1 with Blake Corum taking touches behind him.
Rams win, I won’t be taking the spread.
Chiefs -1.5 @ Bills: 52.5
If you can manage to take your eyes off of the Jags v Raiders game you’ll find the game of the week, and probably game of the season on the AFC side of things as the two faves from that side of the game face each other in Buffalo. The Chiefs are resurgent and seemingly unstoppable in recent weeks, while the Bills easily dealt with the Panthers last week after a couple of poorer performances. We know that the Bills won’t win if these two teams meet in the postseason, but they have shown they are capable in the regular season after Josh Allen dragged his team to a win in this matchup last year.
We may as well get our money on the Chiefs winning another Lombardi if the weeks since the return of Rashee Rice are anything to go by. The Chiefs had got back on track before he returned but now they’re at relative full strength, it’s looking worryingly ominous for everyone else. The Bills might already be looking at a wildcard spot with the return of the Patriots who have a very easy looking remaining schedule.
Mahomes has thrown 17 TD’s this season, the most in the league, he’s second in yards and sits 4th in QBR, and with Rashee Rice back in the picture he’s thrown 3 TDs in each of the last fornight, 3 of them to his favourite receiver and had a rating above 100 in each of them, he’s pretty good, although he did throw a couple of interceptions last week in an easy win against the Commanders. He’s not rushing as much as he had to at the start of the league as they’ve got the run game working to an extent, but without Isiah Pacheco he might have to step it up again, the Chiefs have called up CEH from the practice squad as they get someone else in behind Kareem Hunt who will probably now lead them and Brashard Smith who’s been in and out so far.
Rashee Rice came off his suspension for professional bellendery a fortnight ago and has 16 receptions from 19 targets already, 3 TDs and 135 yards, as well as a couple of carries as they open their playbook with him back in there. It’s not meant too much of a drop off for Xavier Worthy either who similarly tends to get a carry a game, he’s still around 4/5 catches a game as more of a gadget player. Travis Kelce looks like he’s playing better in recent weeks , in fact he’s not dropped below 54 yards in a month and had a TD last weekend against the commies. Hollywood Brown, Juju and Tyquan Thornton are all capable helpers in the passing game, but Rice looks cemented as the 1 despite just returning.
Obviously the defense is working pretty well; they sit 2nd in points allowed, 4th in total yards allowed, which is 3rd in passing and 11th in rushing this season and they’re relatively healthy on that side of the ball as well. It’s just looking pretty good for them in general and 5/6 for the AFC West looks a great price despite them being a game down on the Broncos in a competitive division.
The Bills leave it pretty much all to Josh Allen who overtook Cam Newton in games with a rushing and passing TD as he had his 46th last weekend against the Panthers. He can rush in from anywhere and has a rocket for an arm, although the supporting cast for him isn’t as loaded as it is for the Chiefs, but he still seems to find a way of getting the job done. In the regular season… I will still have reservations about the Bills in the playoffs until they do it. He has been getting help from James Cook who had 216 rush yards and a couple of TDs last weekend, by far the highest of his career so far, but I think he’ll do well to get near a quarter of that as the Chiefs will look to make the Bills throw the ball and have a good rush defense. They’ve not used Ty Johnson or Ray Davis as much as they did last season thanks to the dominance of Cook.
The passing game really needs to step up to give Josh Allen a little assistance, Khalil Shakir has broken a few from a long way, a 43 and a 54 yarder for him this season but that seems to be what the Bills are relying on for their passing TDs at the moment, it seems all a bit of a struggle for them with no notable standout there. They were hoping it would be Keon Coleman, and he started the season with 8 for 112 yards and a TD in a high-scoring game, so maybe there’s a bit of hope for him in this matchup which I do expect to be high scoring, but he’s had too many dud games this season. Dalton Kincaid should be a useful target, but again he seems to go missing…admittedly, that’s partly game-plan as they are a run-heavy team but I’d want more personally.
As has happened for the Chiefs a few times this year when they play another big team, that opponent has been hit with injuries to the defense and that’s the case here as well with the Bills missing a couple of starters, although they should still be able to get home up front. The Bills actually matchup quite well as the 2nd best defense against the pass and 2nd worst against the run, which doesn’t matter too much against a team who aren’t great running the ball.
Should be a cracking game and I’m fine taking the over, despite it being a large number. Might be worth taking the rushing yards on both QBs. I would probably lean to the Bills getting the job done, everyone getting far too over-excited and then the Chiefs inevitably stomping them in January. Should be bet-builder central, I’ll get something together later
Seahawks -3 @ Commanders: 48
The Seahawks come off their bye week with a better away record than their home record on the road in the capital facing a Commanders team who didn’t achieve much with Mariota at QB last week, but welcome back Jayden Daniels here.
Sam Darnold has done a fine job at QB for the Seahawks, and has the league leading Jaxon Smith-Njigba at his disposal, a player who just seems to be in yards of space every time he receives the ball and has a minimum of 79 yards in every game this year, including 5 of 7 with over 100 yards, and he’s scored in each of his last 3 games as well, safe to say he’s having a good year without having much competition in the recieving room. Cooper Kupp looks like he might finally be getting some connection with Darnold as the WR2 but there’s not much behind them two, rookie Tory Horton is hit-or-miss and the TE’s Arroyo and Barner do help a little, Barner seemingly a good redzone target. They do like to run the ball though and I’ve said it every week, Walker as the man between the 20s, but they seem to love Charbonnet in the Redzone and 10zone, and he has scored in 4 of 6 games for them despite a pretty poor ypc. – Late update – It sounds like Kupp may be missing out… great.
The Commanders welcome back Jayden Daniels, but are again without Terry McLaurin who aggravated his injury last week. That means it’s on Deebo as the main man again as he gets back into things after a few weeks off and a poor game against the Chiefs last week. Behind him it should be a lot of Zach Ertz, some Luke McCaffrey, Chris Moore maybe and by the look of it, a lot of targets to the running backs. They will want more from JCM who has flattered to decieve despite a lot of hype on him coming into the season and anyone behind him. It was Jeremy McNichols as the pass-catching back last week but I’m not sure it will be with Daniels back at QB.
Seahawks to win and cover for me.
Cardinals +2.5 @ Cowboys: 53.5
The Cardinals are a team, like the Raiders of the NFC, just plain, boring and ultimately useless, they’ll once again go without Kyler Murray and start Jacoby Brissett this week. The Cowboys are the Bengals of the NFC, good offense, dismal defense.
I honestly don’t have anything to say about the Cardinals, Brissett looks the better QB for their team and he seems to be better at getting it to Marvin Harrison Jnr, which is pretty much all you need to do as the QB of this team with the lack of any other talent around them, 15+ targets to him and Trey McBride and see what happens away from that. 18 receptions from 24 targets in Brissetts two starts is where it should be for him, but just 4 catches from 8 targets over the same period for Marv Harrison is something they need to look at, no team should have Zay Jones as their leading receiver in a game. Michael Wilson has shown a bit with Jacoby at QB as well, and Greg Dortch might get a couple of touches. They released Michael Carter this week then brought him back on practice squad and he’ll probably play as backup to Zonovan “Bam” Knight who is listed as both on betting sites, so make sure you’re looking for them. He’s a good goalline runner and usually a fair price still.
The Cowboys have Ceedee Lamb back and he’s straight in again dominating targets with George Pickens a very good WR2 behind him, definitely useful for Dak Prescott who was having a great season before shitting the bed with some horrible throws against the Broncos last weekend. Lamb should have had a TD but was mauled constantly by his DB and in the end they just gave up trying to get it to him, although he did still finish with 7 receptions for 74 yards. Jake Ferguson is usually a very reliable target at TE as well, but he put up a goose egg last weekend, something that I doubt will be happening again in this one. Javonte Williams has run well all year and found the endzone again, that’s 6 of 8 games this year with a TD, and 9 in total for the season, 8/11 isn’t bad on him really. I felt like they gave Jaydon Blue far too many carries last week but they seemed to give up quite early, hopefully the same won’t happen in this one.
Should be a high-scoring affair, and with Brissett they’ve managed to get McBride the TD’s he was missing, so my builder will involve his receptions, TD, Javonte Williams yards and a TD.
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