While this is mainly a betting website, I do touch on proper issues as well occasionally so I want to say how shocked I was by the passing of Marshawn Kneeland who passed away this week just a couple of weeks after touching down a blocked punt for a score against the Cardinals. Horrible, horrible news and one that should be honoured across the NFL today with a moments silence for a fallen comrade.
Talking of fallen comrades, it’s Remembrance weekend in the UK as well, marking the end of WW1. To me, this goes beyond politics and is something I try and support each year by throwing a few quid to the Royal British Legion who work to support the Armed forces in the UK. If you win anything today, or even if you don’t and want to donate anyway, follow this link https://www.britishlegion.org.uk/get-involved/donate, or go to pretty much any shop today and donate in person.
That’s the non-football out of the way… The Broncos won a stinker on Thursday night to go to 8-2 and top of the AFC West. Fair play to them, but they’ve still got the Chiefs to play twice, games which may well decide the outcome of the division. Personally, I think the Chiefs continue their ridiculous record against the other teams in that division, but we’ll see.
Bit of a shitter for Bye weeks in fantasy football this week with the Bengals, Cowboys, Chiefs… and er… the Titans.
Falcons +6.5 v Colts: 48.5 (Berlin)
The bipolar Falcons looked like they got things back on track, but lost by a point hosting the Patriots (who might actually be good) – Meanwhile the Colts struggled playing outside in their humbling defeat to the Steelers.
It was 3 for Penix and 3 for Drake London last week as they figured that ignoring everyone else and chucking it to your studs was a good plan. London finished with 9 for 118 and 3 TDs while Bijan Robinson has 8 for 50. Pitts had his standard 4, but as someone who for some reason owns Darnell Mooney in a redraft I’d want more from him, he’s not that bad. It’s a pretty narrow offense, which should be good for us,
Who are the true Colts then? They’ve dominated games this year scoring 30+ points in most of them but came shuddering back down to earth last week as they allowed constant pressure on Daniel Jones and he really didn’t cope with that, they also couldn’t get the run game going, which is the key thing for how they play. It looks like the weather will be fine, so I don’t see why the Colts won’t bounce back to some extent. Jonathan Taylor is still great, Alec Pierce offers a reliable deep threat, Josh Down and Michael Pittman are both healthy now and Tyler Warren has been very good so far as well.
Do I trust the Falcons to be good… or bad?! No, so I’m not touching the cover on this one, I’d lean under on the total, European games are tough. Paddypower have their refund on betbuilders again, so I’ll put something together for that. Drake London, Bijan Robinson anytime TD, Daniel Jones o1.5 TD, Mooney o2.5 recs, Warren o4.5 recs – 25/1 or so. £5 refunded on PP if it loses.
Bills -9.5 @ Dolphins: 50 (C5/404)
The Bills beat the Chiefs in the regular season, as they tend to do before being done when it counts in January. The Dolphins should be relegated.
Josh Allen had yet another game with a passing and rushing TD, he’s pretty good. James Cook actually had a fairly decent game against the Chiefs and should be nearing 150 in this one against a hideous Dolphins defense. Khalil Shakir still leads the passing game, but Dalton Kincaid had one of his good weeks last weekend, hopefully they’ll keep using him as a weapon. Those got had 13 receptions between them last week with 10 spread around the remainder of the rest of the team. It’s a narrow offense, but with Josh Allen there it works.
The Dolphins are Tua, Achane and Jaylen Waddle… not much else. They did give Greg Dulcich quite a few touches in his first game for the team so he may be worth a look and Malik Washington has been getting more touches in recent weeks. The Dolphins do play better at home so maybe they won’t be too bad in this one.
Bills win and should cover the spread as it may well be another <10 point game for the Dolphins, therefore I’m looking under quite a high total. At this point it seems silly not to take Josh Allen rushing TD, although he is now odds-on.
Browns -2 @ Jets: 37.5
Both teams had a bye last week so should be rested. It will be Dillon Gabriel at QB for the Browns, will it be Tyrod or Fields for the Jets?
The bye week came at a good time for the Browns who had just lost Quishon Judkins to a knock, he’s a week to heal up and should be fine in this one. The passing game goes through the two tight ends, David Njoku seems larger than ever and rookie Harold Fannin has had a good rookie season (Fannin is questionable for tonight). This team though is mainly defense, and that’s mainly Myles Garrett who finished their last game with 5 sacks and was not happy about being taken out of the game with time left.
The Jets beat the Bengals before their bye but this defense is just a touch better than what they faced in Cinci and they’ve since had a firesale with Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner going out of the door. The offense remains together though, and Breece Hall will look to build on their last game, not easy against this run D. Garrett Wilson is questionable with a knee, they could do with him back. Tyler Johnson led them last time out, the Isaiah brothers Davis and Williams had a few each and Mason Taylor scored the winner in that one, also a good rookie year.
The Browns should win this, they will slow the run game and force the pass. I’ll take the rookie TE double though, Fannin and Taylor
Jaguars +1 @ Texans: 37.5
The Jags beat the Raiders last weekend, it was a scoreless 1st quarter but finished an entertaining game. The Texans lost to the Broncos with CJ Stroud knocked out of the game.
The Jags will be without Brian Thomas as well as Travis Hunter, so they brought in Jakobi Meyers in the week to give another target to Trevor Lawrence, who may have Brenton Strange returning in the next week or two. That would help as they struggled in the redzone last week, no TDs thrown for Lawrence, but he did sneak in a couple and Tuten found the endzone as well. Travis Etienne is the one to look at this week though as he was stopped repeatedly on the one-yard line, that stuff tends to even out. Parker Washington led them in receptions, so he and Meyers could be the ones to look at for props.
The Texans will be starting ole long-neck Mills this week, he finished out last weeks game to minimal effect, 137 yards from 30 attempts. Not exactly efficient. You would think it will be lots of targets for Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz. They are the two best options anyway and with a poorer QB they usually move to just aiming for the best players. Christian Kirk had the same 8 targets as Schultz, so get him there as well. The run game is split between Chubb and Marks but neither has been effective on the ground as yet. I called the Chubb TD perfectly last week btw… foul in the endzone gives them the ball at the one… he had his chances but couldn’t get in.
Under seems the best look here, the Texans D is very good and I don’t think they’ll do much with Mills at QB. The line has flipped from the Jags to the Texans.
Patriots +2.5 @ Bucs: 48 (412)
A nice choice for the Sky game this week as the 7-2 Pats on a 6 game win streak, take on the 6-2 Buccaneers who come off their bye week not looking in much better health than they were a fortnight ago.
Rhamondre Stevenson is out again, and we saw a fairly clean split between TreVeyon Henderson and Terrell Jennings last week in the rushing game, although neither were too effective. From the outside though it looks like they use the run game to set up the passing game and Drake Maye has been very good recently, especially with chunk plays. Longs of 58, 21,20 and 19 yards to different players last week with Pop Douglas having a big game with Keyshon Boutte out (he’ll be out again). Stefon Diggs has grown into his role as an experienced player among the younger WRs they’ve got, the likes of Kyle Williams should benefit from it in the long run.
The Buccs have overcome injuries throughout the season and are still without Bucky Irving in this one, I guess with the state of their division they don’t have to rush him back and Rachaad White is a good enough replacement for him, as is Sean Tucker who’s been increasingly involved on the ground. Rookie Emeka Egbuka has been a star in his rookie year with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both out of the lineup. It’s been Tez Johnson, Cade Otton and Sterling Shepard working behind the main man, with Johnson providing a useful deep threat for Baker Mayfield who’s had a great season.
A very tough one to call. If it was in NE I’d be on the Pats, because it’s not I might be on the Bucs. But I’ll be staying away from the spread here, hopefully a fun one to watch at least.
Giants +4.5 @ Bears: 47
The Giants lost to the 49ers last week but still put up points but made it three losses in a row, and the Bears nearly hit 50 against the dismal Bengals defense.
Jaxson Dart rushed in another TD, that’s 4 games in a row now and 5 in 6 games on the ground for him and he’s been moving the ball pretty well through the air with limited options as well. Devin Singletary and Tyrone Tracy shared carries with Cam Skattebo done for the season, the passing game uses the TE’s a lot with Theo Johnson putting in a good shift last week and scoring a TD. Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton had the bulk of the targets though with 18 between them, Slayton always likely to have the higher yardage between those two.
The Bears took advantage of their easy matchup and went into their bag of tricks to get the win last week and with D’Andre Swift out rookie Kyle Monangai had a lot of touches. Swift looks like he’ll be playing tonight so it will be interesting to see what the split will be, either way it means no bet on the yardage for either of them now. Swift is still the better back in my eyes. Rome Odunze has been the WR1 but scored NOTHING last weekend with DJ Moore having the big game. Olamide Zaccheaus continues to make me spell his name correctly by racking up some catches, but it was the breakout of Colston Loveland which will please Bears fans as he had his best game of the season, mainly thanks to his 58 yard TD to win the game.
I’m still not convinced by the Bears, they’ve beaten a lot of poor QBs and the Bengals defense. This Giants defense is showing up as one of the better in the league so it will be interesting to see how they go here. I’ll lean to the Giants covering though. Dart anytime 2/1 the best price, 19/10 at Bet365 the best of the mainstream.
Ravens -4 @ Vikings: 49
The Ravens have Lamar back and suddenly everything looks fine and they have a good chance in the division despite being a couple of games back from the Steelers. The Vikings looked very good in their win against the Lions as JJ McCarthy shut up some of his critics.
Even the Ravens defense looks like it’s getting back on track now they’ve got a functional offense, and that’s a worry for everyone else in the North. Lamar threw 4 TDs on his return and got Mark Andrews back to the type of numbers we’re used to from him. Zay Flowers led the team in yards and the rest of the passing game looked a lot better as well. Likely, Bateman et al. Derrick Henry topped 100 yards but didn’t find the endzone, he doesn’t usually go two games without scoring. I will say though that they played an awful Dolphins team so that may skew figures a little and this game will be a lot tougher against an actual professional NFL team.
The Vikings have won both games that JJ McCarthy has sarted and finished, both, weirdly, 27-24. He’s rushed in a TD in both of them, which is good as his highest yardage in his 3 games is 158 yards. But he obviously runs the offense well, it just means dampening our expectations for the pass-catchers. Jordan Addison had a couple of catches, as did TJ Hock and Justin Jefferson of course led the team in targets. The run game with Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason is fine, Jones looked like he was running through treacle when he managed to break one at the weekend, so I think it’s safe to say his top-end speed isn’t where it used to be.
I think the Ravens win this one and do it fairly comfortably, so I’ll take them on the spread. But the Vikings have shown me they’re a good team so I may look stupid.
Saints +5.5 @ Panthers: 38.5
Tyler Shough started, they continued to lose last week, the Panthers pulled off a shock win at Lambeau as they beat the Packers.
Rashid Shaheed had been a reliable target but he moved to the Seahawks on the trade deadline so they’re down a target now. Worryingly for them Taysom Hill led on the ground with 30 yards as they just can’t get the ball moving there this season. Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson probably gets more targets with Shaheed out of the door, and maybe Foster Moreau gets a few touches now as well. Brandin Cooks and Deshaugn Vele the possible beneficiaries as well.
The Panthers should have Tet McMillan who is touted to be playing despite a hamstring tweak, he has been their best WR so it would be handy for them, if he is limited then Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker should do well. Ja’Tavion Sanders is a young TE I’ve been keen on, could get more targets as well. But they’re a run first team and Rico “two pump” Dowdle looks like he’s wrestled the RB1 spot from Chuba Hubbard, and he deserves it. Dowdle has 130 yards and 2 TDs last week in their win.
The Panthers won’t get many more easier chances to win two in a row as they face a Saints team looking towards the draft. They should win, but I can’t trust them on a weekly basis so nothing on the spread for me, or total. Rico Dowdle.
Rams -6 @ 49ers: 49.5 (412/150)
The NFC West takes the spotlight in the late window with the two divisional games. The TV companies have chosen the Rams and 49ers for their coverage, both coming off of relatively easy wins last week, the Rams killing the Saints and the 49ers dealing with the Giants. The division seems to have predictable records between the coaches, but this one has been split in recent seasons.
Matthew Stafford has looked fantastic this year 6th in yards and leading the league in TDs thrown after another 4 last weekend and there’s no reason that should change against a beaten-up 49ers defense. Devante Adams is the redzone threat they expected as he’s been proving unstoppable on the goal-line in recent weeks, he notched another 2 last time out to make it 5 in 2 games. Puka Nacua is the obvious yardage-getter, he returned after getting banged up last week and behind those two they’ll use the TE’s with Tyler Higbee the main one, but Terrance Ferguson and Davis Long looking good in limited touches as well. The Rams defense , especially their pass rush has been very good this season and again, should do well here.
Mac Jones goes again as they hide Purdy away for another week. All he has to do is get the ball to Christian McCaffrey who’s had the most touches in the league and has 8 TDs from them, he’s 9th in rushing yards and 6th in receiving yards across the league. Jauan Jennings and George Kittle should be leading the targets again as they did last week, Kendrick Bourne and Demarcus Robinson are fine behind them two. The defense has managed to keep things together despite injuries throughout the levels there.
The Rams are the better, healthier team and they SHOULD win here. But this is a divisional game so I’m a little hesitant to take them as road favourites. All the money for the Rams, line is now 6 from 4.5 on Friday.
Cardinals +7 @ Seahawks: 45.5
Jacoby Brissett has been the better QB for the Cardinals so they’ve shifted Kyler Murray to IR and freed up a roster spot. Brissett led them to a win against the Cowboys last week. The Seahawks trounced the Mariota-led Commanders to add another road win.
Actually having a passing game has made the Cardinals competitive, which is nice for them. It means that Trey McBride is actually a threat to score TDs now, and that Marvin Harrison actually gets targets and receptions now, he scored as well last weekend. They only need to use those two and they have a functional offense. Michael Wilson probably deserves a mention too ass someone who might top a low betting line. Emari Demarcado looks like he’s the RB1 one there with Bam Knight used in short yardage situations. This all needs to be tempered a little as the Cowboys defense is probably the second worst in the league.
Is Sam Darnold very good?! 21/24 for 330 yards and 4 TDs for him last weekend! He’s looked good on a typically run-first team and he’s helped the team to a 6-2 division-leading record in a wild NFC West. Having Jaxon Smith-Njigba obviously helps things as he leads the league in receptions and always seems to find himself in acres of space when he receives the ball, he had 129 yards last week but somehow not a TD. They went to Cody White (never heard of him) Tory Horton who had a couple and AJ Barner who’s been a useful redzone target for them. They have added Rashid Shaheed now who will probably fit in as the WR2 behind JSN. Kenny Walker and Zach Charbonnet are tough to take in TD markets now.
It’s 8 wins in a row for the Seahawks over this divisional rival, that should continue and I’ll take them to cover.
Lions -8 @ Commanders: 49
The Lions were humbled by the Vikings defense as they lost last weekend and the Commanders gave up a big loss to the Seahawks. Donald Trump is apparently at this game trying to push a stadium name-change, probably a team name change to the Washington Trumps given his unstoppable ego.
I still rate the Lions as one of the better teams in the league but it’s been a bit messy in recent weeks. Jahmyr Gibbs is very good, David Montgomery hasn’t been great this year, although did score last weekend, as the knuckles to Gibbs’ sonic. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta are doing things in the passing game, but they need Jameson Williams to have more games like he did last weekend where he finished with 4 for 66 yards and a TD. It’s a narrow offense.
The Commanders are starting Marcus Mariota for the foreseeable future although it sounds like Jayden Daniels could return this year as he didn’t require surgery from his horrible elbow dislocation. They are lacking in the passing game with Terry McLaurin missing out again. That leaves it to Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz to get the ball moving and that’s not a great spot, Jaylin Lane and John Bates the other two who garnered targets from Mariota last week. The run game hasn’t been effective which doesn’t help things either. They gave Chris Rodriguez equal carries to “Bill” last weekend, Rodriguez scored the TD.
Steelers +2.5 @ Chargers: 44.5
Sunday night football sees the Steelers on the back of a win over the Colts now worryingly ahead of 0.500 face the Chargers who struggle without Joe Alt, but beat the Titans last weekend. Both teams on 6 wins coming into this one.
It was a defensive masterclass against the Colts last week as Daniel Jones couldn’t cope against the Steelers, and they might have success here with Alt missing the rest of the season and weakening the Chargers offensive line. It gives them short fields and with Aaron Rodgers providing adequate QB play it’s all they really need now. Jaylen Warren has run well for the most part, he scored twice last weekend. The passing game should be DK Metcalf but he’s only had one big game, the win in Ireland. Calvin Austin actually led them in yards last week with 56 from 5 receptions. Then it’s the three TE’s, Freirmuth, Jonnu Smith and Rodgers favourite of the 3, the gigantic Darnell Washington who gets a lot of targets.
The Chargers couldn’t get the run game going last week, but didn’t need to do too much to beat the Titans, just 30 from 12 carries for Kimani Vidal who’d looked good in the games leading up to it, he should bounce back here. Justin Herbert threw a horrible interception in the first half but got the job done. They’ve found something in Orende Gadsden, the TE led them in yardage last week with Keenan Allen looking the most likely to get yards behind him. Ladd McConkey has dropped off a bit and Quinten Johnston seems more redzone than anything else in this attack.
An interesting game, and one unfortunately I’m leaning to the Steelers winning. Under on the total. Those splits with and without Alt really are significant.
Eagles +1 @ Packers 45.5
A fun one with two teams at the top of the betting for the NFC facing each other on Monday night. The Eagles come off their bye week, while the Packers may well have been overlooking the Panthers last weekend knowing this game was on deck. They will have to be far better than they were in that one.
Saquon Barkley had probably his best game of the season so far last week before leaving with a tweak, but he’s had the week to rest up and will be fine here. AJ Brown and Devonta Smith are good when required, but the Eagles aim not to use them and that makes them very tough to do anything with them in terms of props. Dallas Goedert the most reliable player on their offense.
The Packers lost Tucker Kraft for the season last week, so I’d imagine it will be Luke Musgrave getting touches but he’s just not as good as Kraft has been. Josh Jacobs will do his bit as the main ball-mover, Christian Watson has come back well as the deeper threat for them with Romeo Doubs mostly shorter passes. They’ve got players, they’re just tough to pick for betting.
Um… I’m not sure. I will admit I’m not a fan of the Packers and don’t see them as a real threat, but I’m not sure either of these have really impressed this season. I guess I’m taking the Eagles getting points and coming off a week of rest. Under on total.
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