Week 11 of the season, and at the end of last weekend I made my first Super Bowl bet, the Chiefs and Rams making it to the finalé at around 11/1. The Chiefs have looked great since Rashee Rice returned and I don’t see that really stopping. The Ravens and Bills can’t beat them in the post-season, I think they’ll sweep the Broncos, they’d deal with the Colts, unfortunately I think it’s them again.
The NFC is a little more top-heavy but even then I don’t think there are many real competitors. I don’t like the Packers or Vikings and the Lions have shown they’re fallible recently as well. The NFC West looks the best division, the Seahawks have been very good, the 49ers are winning with half a roster but the Rams have been dominant recently and are strong on both sides of the ball. The Eagles are rightly short in the odds but for me haven’t been great this season, although winning while playing badly is the key to a good team. I think it’s Rams or Eagles really.
It’s your final chance to have a play on an early game this weekend! Why not give it a go before the England game, or the NFL kicks off tonight. If you’ve not given it a go yet you can sign up with the code TDTIP and you’ll get a free matched game for this weekend’s slates, they start at £3 an entry and the choices are ever-expanding as they get more popular.
Commanders +2.5 v Dolphins: 47.5 (Madrid)
Another first for the NFL this year as they have their primer juego in Madrid as the future Trumpington Trumps come over to face the Miami Dolphins. It looks like it will be a dull but mild enough day, more typical of Washington weather than Miami as they take the field at the Bernabeu. The Commanders lost to the Lions while the Dolphins made me look like a plum by easily beating the Bills in the shock of the season against the spread.
It wasn’t pretty for the Commies last week, but this is a nicer matchup than last weekend. Jayden Daniels is still out, but they are hopefully he will be back this season if required (probably not) so it’s Mariota at QB again. Amazingly it was Treylon Burks who led them in yards last weekend with Zach Ertz behind him. Deebo caught 4 of 5 targets and Robbie Chosen (formally, Chosen Anderson, formally Robbie Anderson) had 4 targets as well as the deeper threat. How will the passing game look this week? Who knows? Ertz should be the main man though, in my eyes.
The run game hasn’t hit the heights they hoped when they handed it over to Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Bill) who has been largely inefficient, but does get a potentially nice matchup here to maybe bounce back. They gave Chris Rodriquez the TD on the ground last week and Jeremy McNichols tends to get the 3rd down plays.
Dan Quinn now on defensive play-calling, has to lead to an improvement on that side of things, although injuries may hamper that.
So which Dolphins will we get this week then? Everything worked for them against the Bills, they forced third downs constantly and the offense actually worked. Tua threw 2 hideous INTs but then put one on a rope for Jaylen Waddle down the field. It’s the Tua we’ve come to know and utterly disrespect. De’von Achane had a huge game with 174 and 2 TDs on the ground and his usual 6 or so catches. They will be hoping Ollie Gordon gets healthy as the RB2 though as Jaylen Wright was quite wrong. A narrow passing game saw Malik Washington score the TD and Greg Dulcich catch 1 of 4 targets… I was high on him last week in a game I thought they’d be trailing, do I go back to him this weekend?
Both defenses have been fairly inept in general so there will hopefully be quite a few points on show here. I doubt the Dolphins play to the level they did last weekend, but can the Trumpers take advantage of that? I’m not so sure. I think I’ve got to lean to the Dolphins winning, and why not, over on the total.
Paddy once again has their BetBuilder moneyback offer, I feel I’ve been close on a couple of the early games, hopefully finish them with a win here; Miami -1.5 first quarter, Ertz o3.5 receptions, Achane 15+ yard reception, Robbie Chosen anytime; 51/1 (Fairly sensible until the Chosen TD, at 13/2 he might be worth a look as a single)
Chargers -3 @ Jags: 44 (C5)
I’ll be honest, this wouldn’t have been high on my list for Channel 5, but obviously it’s London’s team and both teams have shown to be mildly competitive this year I guess, the Chargers won easily on SNF, the Jags lost in typical Jaguar fashion to the Texans.
I thought the Chargers OL was the worry last weekend but they got the job done without too much issue, Vidal bounced back from a stinker to top 100 yards on the ground, McConkles had over 100 through the air thanks to a 58 yarder and they should have Orende Gadsden available at TE despite a knock last weekend. Keenan Allen does a lot of work moving down the field, McConkey is everywhere and Quinten Johnston has a knack of getting free in the endzone.
The Jags are without Brian Thomas again and Travis Hunter is on IR, so they’re down to Parker Washington leading them again in this one, he did find the endzone last weekend. Jakobi Meyers came in and had targets last weekend, nearly a TD but a false start stopped that. It’s not good behind those two, Brenton Strange is out again, so Johnny Mundt gets the start at TE. Travis Etienne will probably get a TON of carries, but if they’re trailing they’re in real trouble.
Chargers win and cover. Over on the total. Jakobi Meyers anytime – 23/10 (365)
Bucs +6 @ Bills: 46.5 (412)
The Bills shit the bed against the Dolphins last weekend and probably gave up the AFC East as the Pats won again against this Buccaneers team.
Injuries continue to hurt the Bucs, but Baker Mayfield is still out there throwing TDs, another 3 last weekend with Tez Johnson scoring two of them and Egbuka continuing his fantastic rookie season with one and 115 yards. Cade Otton led them on receptions. The run game was split almost 50/50 between Rachaad White and Sean Tucker who is the more bruising rusher and get more carries than he usually does.
Nothing went right for the Bills last weekend, fair play to the Pats for that, Dalton Kincaid going out of the game definitely didn’t help things, Jackson Hawes scored with Kincaid out of it. Keon Coleman picked up their second TD last weekend, and Khalil Shakir was the leading receiver, like he usually is. My automatic is Dawson Knox to go over his receptions, but they don’t just slot him into the Kincaid role despite him showing well as a receiver so that’s an avoid. The Bucs secondary isn’t great so it could be a better game for the Bills pass-catchers. I am avoiding James Cook as they seem to be giving him one chance in the 10zone before going to others there, it seems he has limited chances to find the endzone.
I think the Bills bounce back, but I would lean to the Bucs on the spread, they’ve been spunky. Over on the total? Sean Tucker anytime – 5/2 (365)
Bears +3 @ Vikings: 48 (404)
Another I doubt I’d have chosen for TV coverage, but an important NFC North clash with the Bears at 6-3 joint top of the division and the Vikings at 4-5, although they are quite up and down as a team.
The Bears scored 17 in the second half to beat the Giants who lost Jaxson Dart during the game, so, another fraudulent win, but a wins a win and they keep notching them up, Odunze had a dud the week before so they got that sorted straight away as he was targeted heavily early on, he found the endzone as well. DJ Moore had nothing last week so maybe he’ll get fed this week? He’s been a disappointing fantasy own this season. Colston Loveland continues to be reliable at TE for them. Swift and Monangai shared carries and it was the rookie who got the score this weekend.
The Vikings lost to a good Ravens team after JJ McCarthy had a down game, throwing 2 INTs in the process. They moved the ball well but couldn’t get drives finished off. Jalen Nailor led them in yardage, which was unexpected. Justin Jefferson caught just 4 of his 12 targets and Addison 3 of his 11. I don’t think the Bears D is as good as the Ravens so I think that will level out a little this weekend. Aaron Jones had his first rushing TD of the year as they stuck with him over Mason.
I think the Vikings are the better team, the bookies seem to as well, just. Vikings win and cover. Addison o3.5 receptions – 10/11, Olamide Zaccheaus o3.5 receptions – 7/5
Bengals +5.5 @ Steelers: 49
Burrow back practising, but the offense has been fine, it’s the other side of the ball they need to work on. They didn’t lose last weekend, YAY! – The Steelers got closer to that 0.500 dream with a loss to the Chargers, they’re now 11/4 to win the division.
The Bengals are looking to sweep the Steelers for the first time since 2021. Their TNF win was a very fun game and I don’t see why there would be much difference here. They have shown they have no issue putting up points with Chase Brown, Ja’marr Chase and Tee Higgins all looking fine with Flacco at QB, Noah Fant will have a role here and Iosivas will be hoping to actually catch important passes rather than dropping them. Higgins has scored in 8 games in a row in Cincy, but he’s not yet scored on the road. The Chases’ both had good games in the first match between these two. The Bengals defense though is HISTORICALLY bad and although it tends to improve through the seasons, they are again without Trey Hendrickson so won’t get any pressure.
Aaron Rodgers is fine at QB and he should operate without any pressure on him in this one. He used the tight ends non-stop in the first game between these teams so I have to look their way again here, Friermuth, Smith and Washington should all have good games. DK Metcalf is probably due a big game but it just doesn’t seem to be clicking for him and Rodgers this year. Calvin Austin is meh, but Jaylen Warren will be looking forward to this matchup, he’s been very good recently and keeping the Bengals off the field is the easiest way to get the job done here.
The Over makes the most sense for me in this one, I’ve got to lean to the Steelers covering though. They will be fired up for this one and I don’t see their defense being as dismal as it was the first time these teams met. Tee Higgins o4.5 receptions, Noah Fant anytime – 9/2 (365)
Packers -7 @ Giants: 42
The Giants once again gave up a 10 point lead, and while this one might not have been on Daboll after Dart went down, it was the end for him as they sacked him in the week. The Packers played out a snorer as they lost to the Eagles on MNF.
I don’t want to keep repeating it, but I just don’t get Jordan Love. To me he’s a mid-level QB and with their defense that might be all they need, but to lose when the D gives up just 10 points isn’t good enough. Christian Watson has come back well as their deep threat, Luke Musgrave did a little as the replacement to Kraft but the passing game isn’t getting going. Golden hasn’t done a lot, Dontayvion Wicks is fine but they were down to relying on Bo Melton as others weren’t getting the job done. Having said that I do expect Romeo Doubs to bounce back after just 5 yards last week. Josh Jacobs 20+ carries should be do-able tonight.
The Giants have realised that Russ Wilson is done and gone with Jameis Winston as the starter here! MUCH more fun, although the loss of Darius Slayton for the week is annoying as I was expecting a decent game from him. Wan’dale Robinson the last remaining reliable receiver for them. Expect Theo Johnson and the running backs to have a decent game. I prefer Devin Singletary to Tyrone Tracy in the passing game.
The line came down when Jameis was announced at QB, and my automatic thought was that this is a guaranteed under game, so I’m leaning there, but I’ve got to cover that with Packers Defense scoring as Jameis WILL turn the ball over. Devin Singletary o1.5 receptions – 20/23; Packers Defense anytime – 8/1 (Coral/Ladbrokes) HUGE price on those two, 11/2 the best elsewhere.
Texans -6 @ Titans: 37
The Texans had a great comeback win over the Jags last week as 20/1 Davis Mills scored the winner and he gets the start here as well. The Titans had the week off. Money is on the Titans here, down to 6 points from 7.5 on Friday.
Backup QB starting a game in a team with a stud receiver? Yeah, it’s not that difficult, just lob it his way. Nico Collins had 15 targets last week, finishing with 7 for 136 yards and that should be the same story here really. Dalton Schultz had 7 receptions as well and got himself a score, Jayden Higgins has improved through the year and showing his worth a little more now. This was, however, in a game they were trailing for most of though, and that shouldn’t be the case here, so it should be more for Woody Marks and Nick Chubb on the ground. Marks has run fairly well for a smaller back, Chubb running like someone who nearly had his career ended by the Steelers.
The Titans aren’t a good team, on either side of the ball and it’s possible that they’ve killed Cam Ward already. He’s very scatty back there and unfortunately for him seems utterly incappable of just taking the easy pass, so he doesn’t help himself. My choice here would be to give Tyjae Spears the start but they like Tony Pollard and he’ll probably lead them on the ground still. Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike have been the leading receivers for them on alternate weeks and Chig Okonkwo should be a reliable target if they can stop Ward trying to play hero ball all the time.
I won’t be taking the Titans, but I don’t think I can do Texans either. 37 is a migthty low total.
Panthers +3.5 @ Falcons: 41.5
The Panthers stunk it out in a loss to the Saints while the Falcons lost in OT in Berlin against the Colts. Two teams who are utterly unpredictable on a weekly basis.
Tet McMillan came through a minor hamstring injury to lead them last week so I assume he’ll do the same this weekend, Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker don’t seem to have any connection with their QB though. Rico Dowdle the lead back looks like he’s dominating touches in that area now and I don’t see why that would change. The Falcons D is very good so I think they’ll try and lean on the run game as much as possible here.
The Falcons looked good for large parts last week, again, if you’ve got a stud WR then get him the ball all you can. Drake London had another 100 yards and a TD catching 6 of 8 targets as the one reliable person in the passing game. Kyle Pitts dropped some easy ones, Darnell Mooney is the deep threat and was targeted a lot without any success and Bijan Robinson was in the backfield a lot but barely targeted. Robinson and Allgeier had 28 carries between them as they gave us some weird formations. Bijan much better in open space but Allgeier got the goal-line work and scored twice. I don’t see that changing.
I won’t be betting either, the Falcons are the better team but have MUCH more travel disparity here afer returning from Europe. Under was my first thought but I don’t want to touch the total either. Mooney o30.5 rec. yards
————————-
Chiefs -4 @ Broncos: 45 (412/C5)
A win for the Broncos here would be HUGE for their chances of winning the AFC West for the first time in a decade, but the bookies aren’t stupid and have this line about right given the Chiefs are 36-8 against the division in the last 8 seasons. The Broncos have only won TWO against the Chiefs in that decade since they last won the West, and one of them came last year as the Chiefs sat everyone. Chiefs had a bye, Broncos STUNK against the Raiders on TNF last week.
It gets worse for the Broncos as the Chiefs record coming off a bye week is insane as well, although that may well already be baked into the line here. They are without Isiah Pacheco again but the run game doesn’t matter too much to them and Kareem Hunt has been playing well enough for them there, Clyde Edwards-Helaire even got a few touches last time out. Rashee Rice has returned looking like he was never out of the game as he’s been the best WR in each game since he returned. Travis Kelce tends to play well against the Broncos so I’m expecting a good one from him, Xavier Worthy is fine and Juju and Hollywood aren’t terrible, although aren’t great either.
The Broncos are defense-led and that defense is the best in the league by some way this year, especially getting pressure on the QB, so it’s safe to say that’s the key matchup in this one. Bo Nix hasn’t been great but has stepped up in the 4th quarter where required, so fair play for that at least. Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin seem to now be 1a and b rather than 1 and 2 as Franklin has at least 8 targets in the last 4 games. Evan Engram is fine at TE for them. They are without JK Dobbins for the rest of the season though so will need RJ Harvey to step up and it may mean more for Tyler Badie.
A very interesting game, the Chiefs dominate in division and off a bye week so I can’t take the Broncos. Under seems the correct way to lean, but I could also see this being high-scoring if Mahomes manages to overcome the Broncos defense. Kelce o43.5 rec. yards, Kelce TD – 2/1 best odds, 7/4 (Skybet the more mainstream)
Seahawks +3 @ Rams: 48.5 (404)
Two of the form teams in the league and both have been very impressive this year with both teams at 7-2 on the season. The Seahawks are 4-0 on the road, the Rams 3-1 at home, both with 4 wins in a row. THIS should be a cracker.
The Seahawks have been blowing teams away early in games and using their defense and run game to get the job completed. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is constantly open and Sam Darnold has been finding him as he leads the league in receiving yards, and it’s not close, he’s 200 yards ahead of Chase in second having both played 9 games. Behind him Cooper Kupp is there, and Troy Horton has done a bit, the TE’s have been fine with AJ Barner the more deadly TD threat. Basically the passing game is JSN. The run game is frustrating the bet on, Kenneth Walker just doesn’t find the endzone despite having more carries, Zach Charbonnet tends to get the shorter work and last week they even decided that George Holani should get touches to mix it up even more.
Matthew Stafford is the MVP favourite at the moment, he leads the league in TD passes after another 4 last week took him to 25 on the season, and he’s 4th in yards as well with most going to Puka Nacua who’s third in receiver rankings. Devante Adams have been the redzone threat we all expected with 9 which puts him top of the rankings for receiving TDs, he’s just unstoppable at the goal line. Behind these two there’s not much but the TE’s looked good last week with Higbee, Parkinson, Ferguson and even Davis Allen getting touches and scores between them. The run game isn’t bad either with Blake Corum getting more touches but Kyren Williams the better of the two.
I like the Rams, they’ve been lights out recently, but they’ve not faced a defense this good since the Eagles in week 3, so I don’t think they’ll be as dominant as they have been for most of the season. I do think the Rams defense will slow JSN though and if they don’t have him they’re in trouble. Again, could be low, could be high. I’m leaning to the defenses stepping up and the under in this one. Zig when others Zag etc…
49ers -3.5 @ Cardinals: 48.5
The 49ers were outclassed by a healthy Rams team last week, the Cardinals lost to the Seahawks as they trailed 38-7 at the half and unsurprisingly couldn’t come back.
The 49ers healthier than opponent for the first time this season! They have Purdy and Pearsall back, so while Mac Jones has done well and will be on call, they should be better on offense with more of their starters back. Christian McCaffrey has been most of the offense although they seemed to go away from him too quickly at the goal-line last week (maybe I just thought that as I had a bet on him), he leads the league in touches and that probably won’t change. Pearsall though started the season on fire so it will be interesting to see how he slots back in with Jauan Jennings and Kittle both now healthy. Brian Robinson has been increasingly involved on the ground, maybe a good look.
The Cardinals are without Marvin Harrison, so… 20 targets for Trey McBride? They seem to have moved to Emari Demarcado on the ground with Bam Knight behind him. The passing game? Well, yeah all Trey McBride, with Michael Wilson now the WR1?! This probably won’t be pretty for them.
49ers win and cover. Brian Robinson anytime – 9/2 (Skybet/PP) a standout price on him, down at 5/2 on WillHill.
Ravens -7.5 @ Browns: 38.5
The Ravens won again last week while the Browns lost again. Normality is restored. Ravens now 2/5 to take the division. The Browns continue to exist.
It wasn’t pretty for the Ravens offense, but the short-fields that their defense gave them helped get the job done against the Vikings. The lack of Derrick Henry TD’s is a little worrying for me and the Browns run defense held him to just 23 yards in week 2 this year. Do I dare take him under his yards? Zay Flowers should lead them in the passing game, but the TE’s are probably where the ball will go for a lot of this, Andrew, Likely and now Charlie Kolar who’s scored a few this year. They’re a tougher offense to predict than they used to be. Rashod Bateman is out.
The Browns have officially changed their backup QB which will probably get the morons crying non-stop if (when) Gabriel makes a mistake. The TE’s are the keys in their offense, Njoku scored at a good price last week and Harold Fannin has had a good rookie year. Jerry Jeudy continue his mediocrity and Cedric Tillman will want more than he got last weekend. The run game has stumbled a little but Judkins should still get all the chances they can give him.
Ravens should win and cover a low-scoring game, but it is worth saying the Ravens put up 41 in the first match between the two.
Lions +2.5 @ Eagles: 46.5
The Lions easily dealt with the Commanders last week while the Eagles notched an important conference win over the Packers on MNF.
Jahmyr Gibbs has been great this year as they have given him a higher portion of the touches from the backfield, he’s now on 10 TDs for the season after a couple last week and sits top 10 in rushing yards, if he has a good game they’ll win. David Montgomery has been fine in lesser work behind him but not hit the heights of previous years. Amon-Ra St. Brown is still the main man in the passing game, maybe more so with Sam LaPorta on IR now. Jameson Williams has stepped up in recent weeks though with nearing 200 yards and 2 TDs in the last fortnight. Behind the main two in the passing game is a little weak though, Brock Wright probably the TE1 in this one, Isaac Teslaa has shown sparks but there’s not much too reliable and Jared Goff tends to struggle a) against pressure and b) outside.
The Eagles haven’t blown teams away but they’re getting the job done and should be the first team in 15 years to retain a weak NFC East. They can get the job done in multiple ways and that’s a credit to them. Saquon Barkley still looks good when he gets the chance, AJ Brown has had a down-year in a limited passing attack with Devona Smith looking like the WR1 in recent weeks as a very viable deep threat. Jalen Hurts can loop the ball long and being allowed to move the OL seconds before the snap on the tush-push will keep them moving down the field.
The Eagles defense doesn’t have to stop too much to get the job done here and I think they will at home this week, give them the cover in a low scoring game.
Cowboys -3.5 @ Raiders: 49.5
Not a whole lot of quality on show here, but that could lead to a lot of points. The Cowboys come off their bye week while the Raiders have had 10 days since their snorer vs. the Broncos.
The Cowboys have been able to put up points, they just can’t stop anyone. Javonte Williams has run well all year and should appreciate the rest as they’ve had to go to Jaydon Blue to give him some rest, who has looked pretty poor for the most part. Ceedee Lamb’s return has dropped Jake Ferguson to more standard TE usage and George Pickens has been pretty reliable for most of the year. That’s about it.
The Raiders are short on offense as well, Ashton Jeanty faced a big step up from college and has been all right with it, he’s getting a lot of touches. They traded away Jakobi Meyers so you’d expect Brock Bowers to get even more in the passing game. He had 1 receptions last week, from just 3 targets. Expect him to hit 100 yards and at least one TD tonight. Tyler Lockett is known by his coach and he had 5 receptions on his debut, gets a good matchup here, obviously. Tre Tucker leads the team in rec yards but most came early in the year.
Not a great game on paper, but should have points and maybe quite fun to watch. Brock Bowers o72.5 rec yards, Tyler Lockett 4+ receptions – 2/1
TouchdownTips 
Leave a comment