Week 12; Colts v Chiefs; Eagles v Cowboys the highlights

They say the league doesn’t start for real until Thanksgiving and we get the Thursday triple header coming up this week, so let’s have a look where we are.

So where does that leave me? I’m on the Rams and Chiefs already although there is a little worry over the Chiefs now in my eyes. So I may have a nibble on Rams and Ravens. The 49ers might be the value in the betting at the highest odds. They’ve been riddle with injuries all year but are getting people back now and their schedule remains easy, but on the road in Phillie, or at the Rams won’t be an easy wildcard game if things go as I expect.

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Colts +3 @ Chiefs: 49.5 (C5)

The Colts come off their bye week looking good atop the AFC South. The Chiefs lost in Denver last week and sit outside the playoffs at the moment at 5-5.

Jonathan Taylor should probably be the MVP so far, but we know it will go to a QB. He leads the league in all running back stats and we know his role won’t slow down in this offense, although the Chiefs run defense is probably the hardest he’ll have faced this year. Daniel Jones has done well for the most part but has had a couple of melt-down games, he struggles against pressure and the Chiefs will bring that today. Michael Pittman, Josh Downs and recently a lot more Alec Pierce have proven a nice trio in this team now. Their defense has run well all year and Lou Anorumo knows how to deal with the Chiefs so this will be an interesting game.

The Chiefs offense couldn’t get going last week as the Broncos showed that history means very little on a season-to-season basis, but Mahomes still got things done with Travis Kelce as expected. Rashee Rice led the WR group once more with Worthy and Hollywood Brown doing bits and Tyquan Thornton the deep threat again. Pacheco misses another game so Kareem Hunt will get the carries, he found the endzone for the third game in a row in Denver.

An interesting game, but the Chiefs run defense being so good makes me think they win and cover. If JT can’t get going the Colts will struggle. I’m leaning under the total as well. Taylor o19.5 receiving yards

Steelers +2.5 @ Bears: 46.5 (412)

The Steelers won the battle against the Bengals last week but maybe starting Mason Rudolph with Aaron Rodgers having a small fracture on his non-throwing wrist. The Bears won again and went to the top of the NFC North as the others lost.

Rodgers is pushing to play but the team docs are suggesting he doesn’t so it looks like we’ll be waiting on a decision there. Rudolph looked fine against the worst defense in history last weekend so I feel they’ll probably go for him. Jaylen Warren ran well and Kenneth Gainwell had a monster game last weekend, I do think he should be getting more work in the split but they’ll likely use Warren as much as possible. The passing game hasn’t been great regardless of QB, DK Metcalf techinically leads them but hasn’t had a great year and they’ve got a few TE’s they like. Last weekend should have been 20 targets to the giant 300lb Darnell Washington who couldn’t be stopped last week (although, again, against the worst defense ever).

I’m still not buying the Bears, but they get the job done. It’s a split between Swift and Monangai in the running game now with the rookie getting more of the short and red zone carries, although both are looking pretty good. The passing game is tougher to predict. Rome Odunze looks like the 1, but the TE’s are getting work as well in Kmet and Loveland and DJ Moore is frustrating on a weekly basis. Luther Burden out there as the deep threat.

I want to say the Steelers win this one, but I just have no idea on the Bears. Clearly they’re better than I think and than they look as they keep sneaking these wins. Tri-bet; Either team by 7 or fewer looks sensible though at 4/6 on PaddyPower.

Vikings +6.5 @ Packers: 41.5

The Vikings lost again last week and the Packers gott the job done against the Giants.

JJ McCarthy looks terrible and Justin Jefferson is struggling to contain his frustration as he’s constantly air-mailed by the 2nd-year QB. It’s killing their whole offense and I doubt that changes in this game against a good defense. Aaron Jones will feel at home against his former team and Jordan Mason has run pretty well too. Addison has been targeted a lot but they’ve not been good targets and he’s dropped a few. I’ll probably be taking over on his receptions again though.

The Packers are much like the Bears, they generally get the job done without impressing. Josh Jacobs is officially a game-time decision but with them playing on Thursday I don’t think he’ll play in this one and Emmanuel Wilson looked good in place of him last weekend, with Chris Brooks as RB2. The passing game isn’t great without Tucker Kraft, Matthew Golden is looking like a bust from their 1 pick, Romeo Doubs dropped a ton of easy ones last weekend, at the moment Christian Watson looks the only reliable player there.

This feels like it should be fun, but neither team is clicking at the moment. I’m leaning under the total. Jordan Addison longest reception o18.5 yards.

Patriots -7.5 @ Bengals: 50

The Patriots roled on with a win over the Jets, the Bengals offense realised it was all pointless as they lost miserably in Pittsburgh.

Drake Maye is best-priced at 6/4 for the MVP at the time of writing and with the schedule the Pats have left there’s no reason why he won’t be around that price at the end of the season as well. He’s been very good this season, 1st in yards, 4th in TDs, 2nd in QBR at this point of the season and the emergence of TreVeyon Henderson in the running game with Stevenson out in recent weeks has helped the team as a whole as well. Rhamondre Stevenson is back for this week though so we’ll see what kind of split they go with, it will surely be Henderson as the lead back now. Stefon Diggs has settled in and is looking good now as the lead and the likes of Pop Douglas, Keyshoun Boutte and Mack Hollins offer chunk plays when required. Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper have good match-ups this week.

Joe Burrow was pushing to play but they’ve given him another few days as he’ll return on TNF against the Ravens, so we get Joe Flacco’s final game as he’s struggled through a shoulder injury. Ja’marr Chase gets the week off as he’s suspended after spitting on Jalen Ramey last weekend, a disgusting and heinous thing to do, but the league set precedent of a one-game ban and they’ve stuck with that. So Tee Higgins is the de facto #1, with Iosivas as the 2. Yoshi has been targeted a lot but he’s dropped a lot as well. Mitchell Tinsley is my boy for the evening though as I’m sure he’ll be used a fair bit tonight, and I’d imagine Jermaine Burton will remain on the sideline. Chase Brown has been pretty good really. The defense is dismal.

We know the Pats won’t be stopped, but can the Bengals put up the points to keep it tight? Probably not but I’ll be taking the over still. Henderson anytime – 6/5 (fine with over evens everywhere tbh), Mitchell Tinsley anytime – 11/2 (Sky/PP)

Giants +13 @ Lions: 50.5

Jameis Winston got the start and the Giants got the loss last weekend, the Lions lost on the road in Phillie.

Jaxson Dart misses out again, so we get another Jameis Winston week, he’s fun to watch due to the fact we really don’t know what’s happening on any play. Devin Singletary and Tyrone Tracy ran well. It looks like Wan’Dale will be targeted the most but Isaiah Hodgins had a rare good game with the backup QB in there.

The Lions are far better back home and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them cover the big spread here. Jameson Williams has stepped up in recent weeks with Sam LaPorta out and he’s now done for the season so he’ll hopefully carry that on. Amon-Ra St. Brown is the most reliable WR and it’s tough to call anything behind them two. Jamhyr Gibbs is one of the best players in the league in my eyes though and they should just feed him constantly.

Lions win, I’m not taking 13 points, but I think they’ll be right there.

Jets +13.5 @ Ravens: 44.5

The Jets got the loss they wanted last weekend while the Ravens made it 4 in a row.

Tyrod Taylor made it through the week without injury so he gets the start. He’s definitely a better passer than Fields, but this team is horrible. Adonai Mitchell actually led the team in targets last week with Jeremy Ruckert just behind him at TE and John Metchie led them in yards with a massive 45. This might be the week to take the overs though.

The Ravens have Lamar back and they’ve won every game since he returned without much issue. Derrick Henry scored after a couple of games missing out on the endzone and he topped 100 yards. Zay Flowers led in yards, Mark Andrews looked good again and they moved the ball around the rest of the team as they dealt easy enough with the Browns.

Ravens win, obviously, probably lean on the Jets to cover the big spread though with a QB who can actually throw the ball. Jeremy Ruckert o4.5 rec. line (4/5) is a definite bet for me, give me 4/1 on 20+ yards and 10/1 on 30+ yards as well please (on Bet365).

Seahawks -12 @ Titans: 40.5

The Seahawks lost their first road game in LA last week, the Titans looked better in their loss to the Texans.

The Seahawks road record has been very good this year and they’ll win this one after their loss to the Rams last weekend. It’s Jaxon Smith-Njibga in the passing game and Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet on the ground. AJ Barner did get a load of receptions as they chased the game last week though.

The Titans looked better with Jeffrey Simmons back on defense, but the offense is still putrid. They still use Tony Pollard too much for my liking, but Spears got 5 receptions at least and that’s where I think he should be used more. Ayomanor is out so they’re even weaker in the passing game now.

Again, Seahawks win and I think they’ll cover but I’m not taking double-digits on the road. Tyjae Spears o2.5 receptions at 8/13 and 4+ at 33/20 look good.

Browns +3.5 @ Raiders: 36

Shit v Shit. Both teams lost again last weekend.

Myles Garrett is on target to smash sack records this season and he may well notch up a couple more here. The Browns are starting their third different QB of the season with Gabriel out, I’m not going to mention his name as he’s been mentioned far too much this season, I will say though that he’s “sub-par” and I’ll leave at that to be polite. The TE’s should still be in play but the whole passing game is now probably worse. Quishon Judkins gets a lot of carries and looks fine.

The Raiders are a very poor team, Brock Bowers the main man to talk about there, Geno Smith has fallen apart though so it’s not pretty. Tyler Lockett will probably get the most targets as he looks like he’s settled in there. Ashton Jeanty had 6 rush attempts for 7 yards last week, it’s been that season for them.

Honestly, lean under the total. Raiders win and cover.

Jaguars -2.5 @ Cardinals: 47.5

The Jags won impressively last weekend, the Cardinals lost with a lot more yards than their opponent.

Brian Thomas is out again, so it’s the lesser WR’s again in Jacksonville. Jakobi Meyers has come in and looked good in his few games, he led them in yards last week. But they’re moving to the run game with the lack of talent at passing and Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten have looked good with the work they’re getting. Tuten got one and Etienne 2 last weekend.

Jacoby Brissett set an NFL record with 47 completions last weekend, and they lost by 19 points, quite incredible. Michael Wilson was the big winner from that with 15 receptions for 185 yards, and he’ll be the 1 here too with Marv Harrison missing again. Trey McBride will be up there with him and then it drops off a lot. Bam Knight and Emari Demercado share the run game.

May be a weirdly fun game to watch if you like offense. I’m taking the Jags to win and cover. Tuten o45.5 rush yards.

Falcons +2 @ Saints: 40

The Falcons lost in hilarious fashion once again, the Saints had a week off.

I want nothing to do with this game. We’ve got Kirk Cousins starting for the Falcons and he’s looked dismal. He will target Kyle Pitts, but the bookies have noted that and bumped him to 5.5, I am not going near that line. It’s a look to the unders on their pass-catchers for me.

The Saints aren’t very good either. Juwan Johnson o4.5 recs is a teaser.

Nothing at all on this game. I care for neither.

Eagles -3 @ Cowboys: 47.5

The Eagles dealt fairly easily with the Lions last week, the Cowboys had an easy win over the Raiders on Monday.

I do feel the Eagles offense has been poor this year, Saquon hasn’t hit the heights of last season, the passing game is a bit of a mess, but they’ve been getting the wins still so I doubt they’ll be too fussed by it. Dallas Goedert the most reliable pass-catcher in my eyes, Devonta Smith continues being hit-or-miss. AJ Brown not doing a whole lot either.

The Cowboys defense looks a little better after the work they put in at the trade deadline so they’ll be hopeful of pulling off an upset here. Ceedee Lamb and George Pickens are a very good duo, Jake Ferguson found the endzone last week as well. Pickens is actually top 5 in rec. yards this season as he looks for a big deal next year.

I won’t be taking the Cowboys as they can easily shit the bed, but that’s the lean for me in a lower scoring game than expected. Not betting this, but Tank Bigsby at 9/1 isn’t bad, I will take o11.5 rush yards for him.

Bucs +7 @ Rams: 49.5

The Bucs lost a fun game in Buffalo, the Rams got the job done in division against the Seahawks and stay home.

Sean Tucker had a career day as he finished with 140 yards and 3 TDs in Buffalo, they gave him the carries and it paid off, will they have him over Rashaad White this week? I have no idea. Chris Godwin is returning for the Bucs which should help their offense as Egbuka has slowed a little in recent games. Cade Otton has been targeted more recently but that may well drop with Godwin back in the team.

The Rams started fast but slowed against a good Seahawks team, Stafford threw for just 130 yards, but they got the job done. Puka Nacua will led them in most receiving categories but Devante Adams is the red-zone guy. Tyler Higbee has hit IR so they’ll give more to Parkinson and the lesser TE’s. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum have a 60/40-ish split, Williams obviously the better there and he tends to be the man in on big downs.

I’ve said I like the Rams this year and I think they’ll get it done here. Lean under as I do rate the Rams defense highly. Parkinson anytime – 4/1 (PP/Skybet)

Panthers +7 @ 49ers: 49.5

The Panthers won in Overtime in Atlanta, the 49ers beat the Cardinals.

Bryce Young threw for 448 yards last week, and that was largely after he’d left the game after getting hit… fair play to him. Tet McMillan apparently would rather be Tetairoa or T-Mac, so we’ll go with the easier to spell, had a 2 TD game and Legette scored as well as they were trailing for a lot of the game and the same game-script could be in place here. Rico Dowdle actually had more receptions than Chuba and obviously led on the ground so he’s becoming even more involved now. This maybe the week for Ja’t Sanders if he’s good odds.

The 49ers welcomed back Brock Purdy who was efficient on his return 19 from 26, 3 TDs and 200 yards is perfect for what the 49ers want to do. It helped that CmcC got a hat-trick and ran well on the ground. Kittle notched a couple of TDs as well with his starting QB back, and he’ll have another decent game. Ricky Pearsall came back and caught one of his 3 targets as they eased him back into things, he had a big start to the year so will be hoping to get back near that with Jauan Jennings in the side as well.

I thought I’d be taking the 49ers to win and cover, but the Panthers are spunky and will be hoping to build on last week so I’m avoiding the spread. Lean under on a higher total than I thought it would be. Sanders anytime – 11/2 (Bet365)