It’s Thanksgiving in the states, which means we get a triple-header of NFL action on a Thursday, kicking off at 1800 in the UK, half hour later than usual, which is nice for those of us trying to get home from work in time to get all the games in.
I’m usually out for the two early games, but with payday not coming until tomorrow, and the Bengals playing in the late, late game it makes more sense for me to have a couple of earlier beers, have a nap and get up to hopefully watch that game, even if it is inevitably going to end with the Bengals losing their 5th game in a row.
Our guys over at Fantasygameday.app have a £5 entry contest going on today for the three games, if you’ve still not given the only specialised UK DFS contest a go, then sign up now using TDTIP and you’ll get a free matched entry for the contest
A quick look around the books at some of the offers first – PaddyPower has 25% boost on your betbuilders, and their TD treble for the night is Gibbs, Kelce and Chase all to score at 15/2 from 5/1, 50% better isn’t bad at all. Looking on Oddschecker, the best elsewhere is 5.46/1 so it’s pretty decent in all fairness. – For the record I have bet on this
Skybet have Bet £10, get a free £5 on the NFL, and Gibbs, Khunt and Henry to all to score at 5/1 from 7/2, it’s a best of 4.8/1 as standard on CoraLadbrokes, so not quite the boost they’re boasting of there. They also have Gibbs 100+ scrimmage yards and a TD at 6/4 from 6/5, not the biggest boost, but a fair bet. Mahomes 250+ and Kelce TD at 3/1 from 9/4 seems all right on first glance (2/1 as standard on PP)
And they’re the two sites which are easiest to check for boosts…
William Hill have Amon-Ra, Lamb and Chase all over 69 (heh) yards each at 5/2 nudged up from 9/4, Over 21 TDs combined at 3/1 from 11/4 and Love, Dak and Lamar o249 passing yards each 8/1 from 15/2 – Not the biggest boosts, the first should hit, but I’m not a fan of the others.
My first thoughts today were to have an alt-spread treble on the games tonight – Packers +7.5, Dallas +7.5 and Ravens moneyline. It’s around 1.4/1 though, so I don’t think I’ll be going on that, although it’s probably the most sensible way to try and win some extra spends.
Packers +2.5 @ Lions: 48.5 (1800 kick off)
This was the opening game of the season for these teams where the Packers pulled off the win at Lambeau. The Pack come into this one at 7-3-1 after a comfortable win over the Vikings last weekend while the Lions are 7-4 coming off a win over the Giants.
Despite sitting a game and a half back on the Bears, the Packers are still the bookies favourites to take the NFC North and secure a home-berth in the playoffs, so I think it’s safe to say that this game will be pivotal in deciding whether that happens come January.
I will admit this probably won’t be the most balanced preview as I love one of these teams and the other bores the hell out of me… but I’ll see what I can do.
The Packers are undoubtedly run-first and they have been able to do that for the majority of their games this season, mainly on the back of Josh Jacobs who should be back for this one after taking the weekend off after a late fitness test, my personal thoughts were that if they didn’t have this game coming up they would have had Jacobs playing on Sunday, but he wasn’t needed for Emmanuel Wilson ran well in relief of him finishing with 107 and 2 TDs on the ground. I think Jacobs will go straight back in as the 1 and be trying to get to 20 carries, if he gets to that number then it’s good news for the Pack.
The passing game lacks a star but has been fine when called upon, Love sits 11th in yards and 4th in QBR (a lot higher than I’d have expected), so he’s been playing well according to the numbers. Romeo Doubs has had issues with drops recently so they’ve been moving more and more towards Christian Watson as he fully returns from injury. He led them again at the weekend and provides the deep threat for them. Doubs will get targeted in the short-mid range and Dontayvion Wicks will likely get a few touches as well. The main man in the passing game though was Tucker Kraft and they’ve struggled to fill his shoes at TE. At the weekend Fitzpatrick, Musgrave and Whyle all caught a pass. If you want a longer priced TE then Whyle is probably your man there.
The Packers defense is the key to the game though and while I’m still far from convinced they’ll be properly challenging once everything lays out, the signing on Micah Parsons definitely wasn’t a bad thing. He’s notched 10 sacks this year, and with another 2 will become the first player ever to have 12+ sacks in his first 5 seasons in the league. They are missing a couple of linebackers though, and that’s a key position against the Lions.
Jared Goff gets his home comforts again and that’s key for his numbers this season, he is FAR better at Ford Field compared to elsewhere in the land, although he’ll want to bounce back from last weekend where he had a bit of a mare! I finally decided to get on the Jameson train for this season and he promptly put up a goose-egg… thanks Jared.
The passing game is second though to the ability and star power of Jahmyr Gibbs who had a career day on Sunday with 254 combined yards and 3 TDs as they overcame the Giants. It leaves Gibbs now 3rd in rush yards, 3rd in rush TDs and on 1300+ and 13 TDs across the season. He’s got the elusiveness, the breakaway speed and the strength to run up the gut as well. In short he’s probably the best back in the league in my eyes this year, a younger, darker CmC. It does mean the David Montgomery has taken a solid hold of a bench spot though, not even really getting goal-line carries now, and rightly so.
Amon-Ra St. Brown will continue to be the one constant in the passing game, he nearly hit 150 yards this weekend and got his 9th score of the year, good for 2nd in the league, he’s 6th in receptions and 4th in rec. yards at this point as the very secure 1. He has scored in all bar one games at home this year so it seems foolish to ignore him here. Jameson Williams had been coming on well but seems like he’s still not the most reliable player despite his big play ability. Kaliff Raymond will probably get a deep shot or two taken on him, but they are shallow there and the loss of Sam LaPorta hurts them in the middle of the field with Brock Wright nowhere near that level as a pass-catcher. They have signed Anthony Firkser who can pop up with the odd score, he was 25/1, now a best of 7/1 which probably isn’t for me.
The Lions defense isn’t terrible, they sit 11th in rush yards allowed per game and not too much lower against the pass.
I am a little surprised by how high the total has been set on this one, so I’ll be looking to go under. The Packers tend to play slow and having a top 10 defense against both the pass and run should be able to slow the Lions.
(Jacobs, Amon-Ra anytime, and Goff o1.5 passing TDs – 3.5/1ish at PP)
Chiefs -3.5 @ Cowboys: 52.5 (2130)
The Chiefs come off an overtime win over the Colts on Sunday afternoon which keeps them in contention for a wildcard spot while the Cowboys had a remarkable comeback from 21-0 down to beat the Eagles 24-21 with a last minute field goal to avoid going to an extra quarter.
It was a weird game for the Chiefs who moved the ball well but couldn’t complete drives, but fortunately for them, despite his personal beliefs they have a very good place-kicker and Butker did his job for the team to help get the game won. They forced a 3 and out and then matriculated down the field fairly easily to kick the winning FG.
Mahomes was under pressure quite a lot and took 4 sacks, the most in a game this season, but still threw for 350 yards as they came back from 11 points down. He’s still rather good, not much more to say on him really. It is nice from a neutral (fan of another AFC team) fan point to see the Chiefs not utterly dominating this season at least.
Kareem Hunt ran 30 times and found the endzone but I’m sure they’ll be happy to have Isiah Pacheco back for the game tonight to share the burden as the likes of Brashard Smith and Clyde Edwards-Helaire just don’t seem to get the job done on the ground. Hunt will retain goal-line carries regardless of who else is back in the running game.
Rashee Rice continues to impress after his return from suspension, he had 149 yards from 8 receptions as once again the WR1 in the passing game. Xavier Worthy had another tidy game as well and will probably be one I look for in the rush game as they tend to give him 1 or 2 attempts per game on the ground. Travis Kelce is old reliable and has a decent matchup here while Tyquan Thornton will continue to be the random deep ball threat for a couple of targets per game.
Chiefs run defense is one of the best in the league and that will be important tonight, if they can force Dak to throw he’ll probably make some mistakes.
Fair play to Dak this weekend though, while I love him for Fantasy football I’m not his biggest fan on the field but he was very good in the comeback last week. Much like the QB for the Bengals though, it does help having 2 top tier talents to throw the ball to in Ceedee Lamb and George Pickens.
Pickens in now second in the league in receiving yards, and 3rd in rec. TDs after 146 and a TD last week, making it nearly 300 yards in their last two games with 9 receptions in each of them, he always had the talent, just needs to get the mentality sorted and the chase for a HUGE contract next season seems to have sorted his head out a bit. Lamb has been dropping a LOT of important passes recently and that has led to the up-tick in Pickens work. Ceedee finished with just 4 from 11 targets last weekend, although he will still get a lot of work. Jake Ferguson is a good 3rd option for them at TE, although is a little tougher to judge on a weekly basis. Turpin and Flournoy offer the fringe aspects in that area.
Javonte Williams has run well all season but the TDs have dropped away a bit in recent weeks, he’s gone 3 games without finding the endzone now and tonight faces a Chiefs team who allow under 100 rush yards per game, so he’ll do well to have a good game in this one, in my eyes. Although there’s not too much to challenge his position, so he will get the chances to show his worth.
Another one I’m leaning to the under. I rate the Chiefs defense to be able to slow the Cowboys and the trades the ‘boys made seem to have improved their defense as well.
Hunt to score, Worthy 5+ rushing yards, Dak o1.5 passing TDs – 7/1ish
Bengals +7 @ Ravens: 52.5 (0120)
Joe Burrow returns with his team dead in the water at 3-8, even winning out will now only get them to 9 wins and that probably won’t be enough for a playoff spot. If it was up to me he’d still be benched the Bengals would continue to lose and get a high pick for a new HC who starts a day after the season finishes, but none of that will happen. The Ravens made it 5 wins in a row with a stinky victory over the Jets last week, a win that took them to the top of the division.
The Bengals have their LSU alumni both back here with Chase back from suspension and Burrow from his injury, but they’ve lost Tee Higgins for this game due to concussion protocol after he hit the floor hard making a catch at the weekend. Flacco had played well for the Bengals until he hurt his shoulder and the last few games were too much for him to come through with wins, so it’s season over and nothing to play for now.
This is the 4th year in a row that the Bengals have been sent on the road on a short week to Baltimore…short rest in arguably the most important game most seasons… strange that.
Hopefully Burrow has learnt from Flacco’s play as he seemed largely un-touched in comparison to Burrow, fingers crossed he can be more settled in the pocket and get rid of the ball when required instead of taking hits by trying to make the big play, but we’ll see on that one. Not much more to say about Joey B really, he’s good, and the OL looks like it’s improved so hopefully he can carve them up like a thanksgiving turkey.
Chase Brown has been running fairly well in recent weeks, they are top 10 in EPA for the rush, which also suggests the OL has improved. He’s also been more involved in the passing game in recent weeks, again, something I hope carries on with Burrow at QB rather than just a Joe Flacco release valve. Brown will want to add to his just 3 TDs on the season.
So it’s Chase back at WR and Higgins out, which is probably better than the other way around, but not ideal for the Bengals. HOWEVER… I am high on my boy Mitchell Tinsley who found the endzone last weekend with Higgins out of the game, he’s more of a Higgins replacement than he is Chase so I feel he’ll have a decent game tonight and he’s one I’ll be putting some prop money on, 2 TDs from his 5 receptions this season including last week where he was 11/2 anytime. Iosivas has become the 3rd down guy with Flacco, I think they’ll probably go more TE (Fant) with Burrow back, but we’ll see.
The defense has actually been OK against the run in recent weeks, but utterly dismal against the pass, and it still ranks as bottom 2 in both categories so the improving is good, but doesn’t change the season overall.
The Ravens offense hasn’t been playing well recently but they’ve been doing enough to get the job done with some good defensive performances and if there’s anything to get your offense back on track, it’s a game against the Bengals, especially for Lamar Jackson who seems to kill them every single year, might be worth a look at his rush yards tonight.
Derrick Henry hasn’t run up to his standards but is still having a fairly good season, 4th in carries, 6th in yards and 5th in TDs… for a “bad year” that’s really not bad at all! Just 3 yards per carry last week and it feels like there’s been more of those types of games for him this year, but he did score twice in it, so swings and roundabouts. Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell are both getting little bits behind him.
Mark Andrews and Isiah Likely get a good matchup, the Bengals are worst in the league against the TE position, so they’ll be a good look for props. Mind you, the Bengals are worst in the league against a lot of positions, so it’s pick your poison really. Zay Flowers the obvious WR1 there, and he tends to find himself in acres of space whenever he plays the Bengals, so probably tonight as well. Deandre Hopkins isn’t the man of old behind him but the return of Rashod Bateman will help that area.
Their defense has shored up recently although this will be the best offense they’ve faced in the last few months, so it will be a tougher test for them than they have had recently.
The Ravens should win, they always seem to win against the Bengals and Lamar invariably shows why he’s always up there in the MVP betting by putting the team on his back. I’ll be backing Mitchell Tinsley to score again though, best priced 5/1 at Boylesports.
Mark Andrews anytime 5/4 (PaddyPower) and because I’ve got a free fiver on this game from the MNF offer that PP have on each week… Andrew o3.5 recs and a 15+ yard receptions, Tinsley 30+ yard reception, Bateman 15+ yard reception and Lamar o1.5 passing TDs – 25/1 – Why the heck not.
TouchdownTips 
Leave a comment