Thanksgiving Sunday; Will the Underdogs continue to show up?

Well, betting didn’t go well for me on Thanksgiving or Black Friday, or probably for a lot of people as all 4 of the underdogs won outright.

The Packers went for it on 4th down a few times and that bravery pulled off as they beat the Lions in Detroit and put themselves in a good spot with them still having to play the Bears twice in division. The Chiefs went down in Dallas as the Cowboys made it consecutive wins against last years QB competitors to keep themselves in with a chance of the NFC East, especially with the Eagles looking dreadful on Friday. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens were utterly inept against a terrible Bengals defense who finished with 5 turnovers and got the win in Joe Burrow’s return. Remarkably, they’re in the running for the division still despite having just 4 wins, although it’s very much an outside shot and one they don’t deserve at all.

Friday saw the Bears utterly dominate the Eagles in their own house. They ran all over them and stopped anything they tried to do on offense. I want to praise the Bears as they were very impressive, but I still come down on it being mainly the Eagles being poor as they have been for a lot of the season.

The AFC is a hot mess this year, which is making it mildly interesting. We could have no Chiefs, Bills, Bengals in the post-season. The Lions may be missing out on the NFC side of things as well which would be shocking. The Lions and Cowboys on TNF this week is a huge game for both teams.

Cardinals +3.5 @ Bucs: 44.5 (C5)

A strange choice for Channel 5, but they have been for most of the season. Kyler Murray v Baker Mayfield?! Nope… Jacoby Brissett vs. Teddy Bridgewater (probably, although Baker is pushing to start). The Cardinals lost in OT last week, the Bucs lost Baker at half time and couldn’t do a thing against the Rams.

The Cards obviously go back to Kyler next season but they must have reservations after seeing how much better their offense is working with ole Jake Brisket at QB, even without Marv Harrison Jnr. who should return tonight despite an illness. If he doesn’t then Michael Wilson should have another big game after 24 receptions and nearly 300 yards in two weeks as the WR1 there. Trey McBride the only other real pass catcher there, although Greg Dortch has done a bit and scored last week. Let’s not forget they’re down to RB3 and 4s on the ground as well, Bam Knight seemingly the main back although he and Michael Carter both struggle.

The Bucs have been hit with injuries all season, Chris Godwin returned last week and did very little with Baker Mayfield leaving the game, so I’ve not got much faith in the Bucs offense this week. They have Bucky Irving back for the first time since week 4 but reports are that he’s on a pitch count, so I’ve no idea what his role will be with Rachaad White and Sean Tucker both looking fine in relief of him. It’s a mess for fantasy and betting. Emeka Egbuka had a huge start but his numbers have dropped a little, he’ll still be the 1. Tez Johnson has been scoring well though. Cade Otton has been frustrating at TE but gets the targets.

It’s a West-coast team going across for an early start, not a good spot for the Cardinals… but I can’t take the Bucs with the unknown at QB. Got to go Cardinals on the spread but I’m not feeling great about it. Dortch o2.5 receptions (was going to go 18.5 yards, but prefer this). Brissett o24.5 completions

Texans +3 @ Colts: 44.5 (412)

An important game in the AFC South as the Texans look to keep in the hunt having won 3 in a row with a backup QB. The Colts come off a defeat against the Colts with bad injury news around their QB.

The Texans defense has come to the fore in recent weeks with the pass rush looking like the best in the league as they’ve been killing opposing QBs. Davis Mills has done enough in relief of CJ Stroud, but Stroud returns from concussion tonight and that will surely give the offense a boost. Nico Collins will give the Colts a way of showing whether the trade for Sauce Gardner was worth it or not, and that could open things up for Jayden Higgins who’s been in good form in recent weeks and Christian Kirk looks like he’s back to speed aftr injury hampered the first half of the season for him. Dalton Schultz has been reliable at TE and Ashton Dulin has had some big gains with Mills, wait and see if that carries on with Stroud back. The run game isn’t quite as useful. Rookie Woody Marks has taken the 1 spot over Nick Chubb now but they do split carries, Marks the much more explosive and useful pass catcher.

The big news for the Colts is the fact that Daniel Jones is playing with a fractured Fibula, something that I can’t imagine being much fun, and obviously something that will pretty much stop his mobility, one of his big plus factors usually…against a pass-rush like this, that’s not a good thing. Jonathan Taylor will look to bounce back after a tough matchup last week, but this is arguably tougher, the Texans 5th against the run this year. He is the best back in the league this year though, so I wouldn’t be too shocked to see him have a good game. The passing game revolves around Michael Pittman and Tyler Warren who soak up most of the targets, it feels like a “get the ball out quickly” game here so I’m expecting Warren to be the main target, maybe look at Taylor recs as well. Alec Pierce will be the deep shot, as always, and Josh Downs and as mentioned, Ashton Dulin round out the group.

Tough one to call. I feel I’ve got to take the Texans and that defense against a QB playing with a broken leg. Under on the total. Christian Kirk anytime – 9/2 (WillHill), Taylor o15.5 rec yards

49ers -5 @ Browns: 36 (404)

Under 39.5 was the shout early in the week, but it’s now down to 36 and apparently the weather is not good, so it makes sense. Both teams won last week, the 49ers on Monday night and the Browns beating the Raiders during the evening slate.

Brock Purdy had 3 interceptions in the first half last week against the Panthers, BUT he still had a decent completion percentage and with CmcC there they were able to reduce his attempts in the second half. CmcC scored on the ground and had another 7 through the air as he continues to lead the league in touches. Kittle led them in rec yards with another good game with his main QB back. Ricky Pearsall didn’t do much again, Jauan Jennings the WR1 there now he’s healthy.

Shedeur Sanders won a game for the Browns and the NFL went immediately from 6 to midnight hailing him the future for the Browns despite his one TD coming from a 2 yard pass which was taken to the house by Dylan Sampson. But 11/20 was enough for them to win very easily against a bottom 3 team. Quishon Judkins will get as many carries as they can, but there’s no point taking anyone in the passing game. If you wanted a longer odds play then Isiah Bond is probably your guy. Harold Fannin and David Njoku likely the most targeted. The Browns though go with their defense which is 2nd against the pass, top 10 against the run and has Myles Garrett looking to destroy the sack record this year, he should get a few here as well.

The weather could ruin this for the 49ers as I’m Purdy is a fair-weather QB. The 49ers are the better team but I can’t take them in this one. Under the obvious lean despite it plummeting since Thursday. “DEFINITE SNOW, 22mph wind” – Yeah, that’s not great for play-making. Lean Browns on the spread. I want to say take under on the highest Rec. yardage player, but they’re so low already it’s just not for me. Kittle 45.5 the highest line on the board. 33.5 for Fannin the higest for the Browns.

Jaguars -6 @ Titans: 41.5

With 2 wins in a row the Jags are looking to go level atop the AFC South while the Titans are looking for their 2nd win of the season after losing 6 in a row.

The Jags welcome back Brian Thomas Jnr. from injury which should help their passing game, as he goes back to WR1 with Jakobi Meyers behind him. Parker Washington is probably back to a big-part player now with Brenton Strange back last week as well and instantly leading the team in yards. The run game has been the key for them in recent weeks though with Travis Etienne and to a lesser extent Bayashul Tuten running well in general. Etienne still getting probably 65% of the touches.

The Titans have to play their games but probably wish it was April already. In fairness they have at least been competitive in recent weeks. Cam Ward maybe isn’t completely broken already but is a frustrating watch, his WR group isn’t great and the run game isn’t exactly stellar either though. Pollard still getting the majority of touches on the ground, Chimere Dike and fellow rookie Elic Ayomanor offer an outlet, (Ayomanor expected to play after missing last week) but there’s not much here. Tyjae Spears has been one I look for in receptions from the backfield, and I’ll be taking o2.5 for him again. He’s had at least 3 in all but his first game back this season, 6/7 – although the odds are 10/17 for it.

Probably leaning to the Titans covering again, but Jags win. Under on the total. Tyjae Spears o2.5 receptions – 10/17, 4+ 29/20

Saints +5 @ Dolphins: 41.5

No idea on this one. The Saints lost to Atlanta while the Dolphins may have lost a bit of momentum after a couple of good wins before their bye week.

The Saints are without Alvin Kamara here, but he’s not been running well anyway, so Devin Neal gets the start, I guess? Tyler Shough has been adequate at QB but will have it tough with Chris Olave possibly out as well, although he is pushing to play through injury. He caught 9 of 13 targets last week with Juwan Johnson the man behind him in that aspect and Neal actually getting a lot out of the backfield. Without Olave they’d be looking at er… Devaughn Vel? Mason Tipton? Yikes. Foster Moreau might get a catch and go over his 2.5 line.

The Dolphins are two (maybe three) players, De’von Achane, Jayden Waddle and maybe…Darren Waller who’s straight off IR and back into the lineup. He didn’t do a whole lot but did have a knack of finding the endzone earlier in the season. Malik Washington, in fairness has been playing pretty well and Greg Dulcich was doing ok at TE. Will Dulcich top 9.5 yards?! It’s a teaser.

The Dolphins are clearly the better team, at home, I’ll probably take them on the spread but this game could be anything, I have zero trust in either team.

Falcons -2.5 @ Jets: 39.5

Talking of zero trust in either team… Kirk Cousins is a road favourite after getting a win last week. The Jets did not look much better with Tyrod Taylor at QB, I was expecting better games from their receivers but that didn’t really materialise.

It’s pretty easy for the Falcons really, limit your QB and get the ball to Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. Just run the ball 3/4 of the time. Drake London remains out so it’s Darnell Mooney as the 1 and Kyle Pitts, realistically as the 2. There’s not a whole lot more in the passing game really, Woener, Drummond (no idea) and Sills had 3 receptions each last weekend, good for them.

I thought the Jets WRs would do better with Tyrod, that didn’t really play out, although it’s nice to see John Metchie leading them at WR after the struggles in his personal life. Metchie is probably the one to aim for on bets, although AD Mitchell is fairly involved as well. Breece Hall wasn’t efficient on the ground last week but will get the vast majority of touches and had the speed to take his 4 receptions for 75 yards last week.

What a stinker, at least 5 didn’t choose this one. I was on Jeremy Ruckert last week and he didn’t even garner a target after 4 receptions the week before, do I dare go for o0.5 yards for him at 20/21?! – Nothing on the spread, total. John Metchie o33.5 rec. yards.

Rams -10 @ Panthers: 45

The Rams are the best team in the league this year, they come off an easy win over the Bucs, while the Panthers have a shorter week off a loss to the 49ers.

Matthew Stafford has 27 TDs without throwing an INT and will look to extend that here. It turns out Devante Adams is unstoppable at the 1 yard line which definitely helps Stafford’s numbers! They even got Adams a TD from further than that last weekend. Puka obviously the main target, but behind those two there’s some useful TE’s who get open as well. Colby Parkinson the main man there at the moment but Davis Allen and Terrance Ferguson both chip in. Kyren Williams gets the main bits on the ground, Blake Corum will surely score again at some point, nothing since week 2 for him.

The Panthers are a tough watch but are a lot better at home and with the early start for the Rams it’s a decent spot for them. Bryce Young is tough to pick, but has had some big games… I don’t see that here as the Rams pass rush has looked great. Should mean more on the ground for Rico Dowdle and maybe some Chuba Hubbard. Tetairoa McMillan has had a good rookie year as their main guy in the passing game and Xavier Legette has shown sparks but there’s not a whole lot more as Jalen Coker hasn’t done much since returning.

Rams win, I wouldn’t take them on the spread although I do think that is the right way. It’s West to East travel and the Panthers are a lot better at home. Colby Parkinson anytime – 3/1 (WillHill) – There is 4/1 on 10bet if you’ve got an account there.

Vikings +12 @ Seahawks: 41.5

Personally I think the Vikings should be investigated for how they’re dealing with JJ McCarthy, he’s clearly not very good so they hid behind a poorly foot earlier in the season and this week he’s magically concussed after another terrible game, so they can leave him out without dropping him. Although starting Max Brosmer is an interesting solution. The Seahawks beat the Titans to take their road record to 5-1.

It’s impossible to take anything on the Vikings side with an unknown at QB. Aaron Jones gets most of the carries on the ground with Jordan Mason behind him. I’d imagine they get as many carries as possible, and the passing game? I guess 15 targets to Justin Jefferson as he’s been increasingly frustrated with JJMc air-mailing him constantly. Maybe TJ Hockenson as the TE is the new QBs best friend.

As terrible as the AFC has been this year the Seahawks would probably be top of it if they were on that side of the game. They’ve played well with Darnold at QB, a solid, if incredibly frustrating for betting, run game and a working passing game. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is on target to break records as he sits on 1313 rec yards already this year, his line is set at 96.5 and he’ll probably break that. Not too much behind him although Shaheed got a few more catches last week, Cooper Kupp hasn’t had a great year.

Seahawks win and probably cover, once again I won’t take that spread. Seahawks 1st quarter/1st half might be the play. Seahawks -2.5 first quarter – 10/13

Raiders +9.5 @ Chargers: 40.5

The Raiders might be the worst team in the league, while the Chargers seem to change from game-to-game, they should be fine off their bye week.

Nothing to trust on the Raiders side, Ashton Jeanty will get all the carries and probably most of the receptions as well. It looks like Tyler Lockett will be the main WR for them, which isn’t a good place to be. Even Brock Bowers is struggling to do much with how dismal this offense is, although they did change OC this week so maybe it will get a slight boost. Tre Tucker caught 3 of 10 targets last week.

The Chargers have activated Omarion Hampton but he won’t return this week so Kimani Vidal gets a final hurrah as the RB1, although he’s fallen off a cliff recently, so they’ve got nothing at RB. Justin Herbert is who he is, can have big games, can be terrible. Last we saw him he shit the bed with under 100 yards passing. Keenan Allen seems to be the 1 there with Laddles behind him and Quinten Johnston nothingness in half his games, so no doubt he’ll notch 2 TDs this week, incredibly frustrating. Gadsden at TE looks the most trustworthy behind Allen.

Chargers win because the Raiders just look hideous. Under was the pick but the new OC at the Raiders surely makes them a little better on offense?

Bills -3 @ Steelers: 45.5

Neither of these teams are playing well this year, the Bills look like they’ll be settling for 2nd in division and a possible wildcard spot while the Steelers sit a game above 0.500 and that just can’t be done. Tomlin as a home underdog is usually a spot to hit though.

The lack of pass-catching talent seems to be hampering the Bills offense and as good as Allen is, he doesn’t seem to be able to overcome it at the moment. Khalil Shakir as the WR1 is fine if your defense is top drawer but it’s rough if that area falls off and that’s what seems to have happened here. Keon Coleman has been benched for the last two weeks, seems like he may come back here but he’s been hit and miss this year, Gabe Davis has been fine in his place. Kincaid is officially questionable, but raising a TE from the practise squad makes it look like they’re not confident in him playing. James Cook has had a good season on the ground and the Steelers run D isn’t great so it maybe a good game for him, although the offensive line injuries for the Bills may stop that happening.

Aaron Rodgers is good to go after missing last week with a non-throwing wrist injury. They scored well enough without him last weekend against the Bears. Jaylen Warren has run well this year and has the RB1 spot solidly wrapped up. Things just aren’t working for DK Metcalf in the passing game this year, which is a weird one, and makes the passing game tougher to predict. Calvin Austin led them in yards last week with a massive 36. Kenneth Gainwell again had a good game with Rudolph at QB. The TE’s are the main part, though with Washington, Smith and Friermuth sharing the targets.

Steelers win and cover. I think their pass rush kills the game. Darnell Washington o1.5 recs – 5/7

Broncos -6.5 @ Commanders: 43.5

The Chiefs loss on Thanksgiving puts the Broncos in even firmer control of the AFC West and a win here should pretty much wrap it up, it’s been a good bye week for them. The Commanders were on bye as well, although it’s not been long enough for Jayden Daniels.

The Broncos feel like the De Facto faves along with the Patriots for the AFC as it’s been a horrible year for a lot of the perennial challengers and that’s mainly on the back of their defense which could be record-breaking this season in a few categories. Bo Nix is fine at QB and that’s all that they’ve needed from him. RJ Harvey has been all right as the lead back but they do miss JK Dobbins. The passing game isn’t easy to predict as they spread the ball around well. Courtland Sutton is the 1, but they’re all kind of 2a,b,c at the moment. Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant the other two who seem to get targets regularly with Bryant coming on as the season has progressed.

The Commanders go again with Marcus Mariota at QB, and his legs maybe the important part for their offense, although they do have Terry McLaurin back for the first time in months, in probably the toughest matchup he could have imagined. It should give them a boost in the passing game at least with Deebo Samuel finally getting some help. The run game is messy with Chris Rodriguez probably the one they want there most, but Bill and McNichols will both mix in. McNichols the main pass-catcher.

Broncos win and cover. I think their defense will punish Mariota a lot. Ooof, I was hoping Mariota rush line would be reasonable. I can’t do o27.5 for him.

Giants +7 @ Patriots: 46.5

Jaxson Dart returns from concussion to take the QB spot for the Giants who were competitive with Jameis at QB, although didn’t win games. The Pats look to essentially secure the AFC East.

I’ve quite enjoyed Jameis Winston at QB for the Giants but it’s good to see Dart back there as he made the Giants fun to watch in his time as QB, although his mobility was a big part of that and you’d imagine the team will be trying to limit his running as he does tend to take some big hits. Wan’Dale Robinson has had some nice games with Jameis at QB, including 9 for 156 last weekend but he’ll drop off now with Dart back there being a little safer. Theo Johnson probably goes back to 4 receptions and Darius Slayton returning as more of the deep threat, removing the big gains for Robinson. The run game has been mainly Tyrone Tracy, but split quite well with Devin Singletary, both have been fine.

The Pats didn’t have a great game last week against the Bengals, with Drake Maye throwing the solitary TD, but they got the win and roll on to this one, the Giants have a good pass-rush but Maye should bounce back here. TreVeyon Henderson maintained his role as the RB1 despite the return of Stevenson, 18 carries to 6. The Bengals stink vs. TE so Hunter Henry had a big game, he’ll obviously drop off in this one, so I’ll be looking back towards Stefon Diggs. Behind him it’s a crap-shoot. Will it be a Pop Douglas day? Keyshon Boutte? Mack Hollins? Good for them having options, back for betting.

Line has dropped to just 7 now, so probably leaning towards the Pats, but it’s not a betting spot for me.