Just a month of the regular season left to go and the final bye weeks are here with the Pats, Panthers, Giants and 49ers taking a late rest before hitting the final stretch of the season.
This week kicked off with a fun game in Detroit as Jahmyr Gibbs further showed that he’s probably the best offensive player in the league this season by notching another hat-trick in their win over the Cowboys to keep their hopes of the NFC North alive and to hit the Cowboys’ chances of taking the NFC East. Worse news for the Cowboys was that Ceedee Lamb left the game just after halftime with a concussion. He was on for a massive game and they’ll be hoping he clears protocol ready for the Vikings next weekend.
The Lions are now 8-5, a game behind the 9-3 Bears. While the Cowboys hit 6-6, 2 games back from the Eagles in their division. I did think the ‘Boys could be dangerous if they made the post-season, but they’ll now need a lot of luck for that to happen.
On to Sunday’s game and some shorter previews this week as I feel terrible. A few days in the big smoke has left me unable to breathe overnight and therefore sleep isn’t fun. So I’ll get through the previews a fair bit quicker today (the people rejoice!)
Colts -1.5 @ Jaguars: 46 (C5)
The Sky game sees a big one from the AFC South where the Colts have stumbled with a couple of losses in a row which has opened it up for London’s team to take the top spot and a 4th win in a row for the Jags here would go a long way to taking the division. It’s a matchup that the Jags have done well in, in recent years. 3 of the last 4 going to Jacksonville, 5 of the last 8.
A fractured fibula for Daniel Jones is obviously going to affect him and the Jags pass-rush is one of the better in the league so he won’t have a fun time in this one, although he did all right against the Texans last weekend. Alec Pierce was his deep/redzone threat as always and he found the endzone. JT is one of the better backs in the league and I think I’ll be looking to his receptions again with DJ getting the ball out quicker.
The Jags were forced to go more run-heavy and it’s done them some good, although it is a pain for betting purposes as Etienne doesn’t get much at the goal-line despite being the better back down the field, a lot like Walker-Charbonnet for the Seahawks, Tuten tends to find his way into the endzone more than his team-mate. Brenton Strange has been an important return for them, he scored last weekend and Jakobi Meyers has been a nice in-season trade with Brian Thomas returning and not doing a whole lot last week.
I think I’ve got to take the Jags and the over here. JT o16.5 rec. yards – 10/11. I think I’ve got to take the 9/4 on Alec Pierce scoring as well, over 2/1 is fine for me.
Bengals +6 @ Bills: 53.5 (412)
The Bengals are still alive in the AFC North, although winning out is the key for them and this is a tough matchup for them. The Bills aren’t the team we thought they were, they’ve tripped up in recent weeks as it looks like Josh Allen can’t do it all himself.
Tee Higgins returns for the Bengals putting them at full strength on offense with Burrow looking settled back into things after he came back a couple of games ago. Chase, Higgins and Brown is a very nice line-up and one that should do well here. They’ve got the TE’s as well with Gesicki and Fant both healthy and Tanner Hudson finding the endzone with a one-hander last weekend. The defense hasn’t been great but has done well against the run and that’s a key thing against the Bills.
The Bills like to use James Cook as much as they can and Josh Allen is obviously one of the best running QBs in the league since Cam Newton, so there’s always a chance of them scoring from anywhere. The passing game isn’t great though with Khalil Shakir leading them in that area, although this could be a Kincaid day as the Bengals are terrible against the TE. Brandin Cooks came in for them recently to add another option, but he looks past it to me.
The Bengals have a good record in this one and are fine in the tundra of Buffalo where it’s expected to stay below zero for the evening here. Obviously, I want the Bengals to win and I think they’ll keep it within the spread at least. Kincaid 5/2 (Skybet)
Steelers +6 @ Ravens: 42.5 (404)
A potentially pivotal game in the AFC North as no-one seems to want to win that division. Both teams sit at 6-6 with another matchup between them coming at the end of the season which could be the division decider.
Aaron Rodgers is playing through injury and not exactly looking happy doing it (when does he ever) and they’re struggling on offense in general. Just 10 completions and 117 for Rodgers last weekend as the Bills dominated time of possession against them. DK Metcalf just doesn’t seem to be working there and there’s no real talent behind him, although Rodgers does love the TEs with Washington again an important target for him last week. Gainwell is the pass-catching back and has had some good games this year but they’d rather be in position to use Jaylen Warren if they can.
Lamar Jackson had a shocker against the Bengals on Thanksgiving as the team turned the ball over 5 times in a blunt loss. This game is different to any others though and he’ll be hoping to bounce back. Derrick Henry broke away for a TD and has a decent matchup here. Zay Flowers should be the most targeted and they recently signed Mark Andrews to a contract extension so we’ll go for him as pass-catcher 2, despite the fact I think Likely is now the better at TE for them.
The Steelers have won 8 of the last 12 games between the team and they’re usually tight games filled with “good AFC North football” (read: dirt) – So I’m definitely on the Steelers side of the spread despite the fact they’re not very good. Likely o2.5 receptions – 5/6, Washington o2.5 receptions – 11/10
Dolphins -2.5 @ Jets: 41
Two teams with nothing to play for. The Dolphins can be fun, and the Jets beat the bi-polar Falcons last weekend so they’re showing that they’re not dead either.
There are some choices for betting here, do you take Dulcich now Waller is back? 11.5 for Greg is definitely more tempting than 33.5 for Waller in my eyes. AD Mitchell looks like the 1 for Tyrod Taylor and he had a big game last weekend but I won’t be taking o50.5 for him, although o3.5 receptions looks very good. Adonai Mitchel has 6/7/12 targets since coming in from the Colts. Probably a nice one for laddering… 1.66, 2.55, 4.20 for 4/5/6 receptions.
It’s not snowing, the wind isn’t bad, so Dolphins win and cover.
Saints +8.5 @ Bucs: 42
The Saints keep their top 3 pick with a loss last weekend while the Bucs beat the Cards to keep a playoff spot within reach.
Nothing to talk about with the Saints, Kamara is out again so Devin Neal gets the start, he didn’t get the receptions I thought he would last week so he’s on my shit list. Deshaugn Vele had the big game last weekend, I’m not chasing that.
The Bucs might have Mike Evans back for the final stretch and with Bucky Irving back and scoring last week, along with Chris Godwin things are looking up for an offense which has had setbacks all year. Bucky immediately had the lead role and showed no ill-effects from injury, even had a TD called back for the hold so I think he’ll do well again.
The Bucs have dominated the recent matchups between the two and the Saints are one of the worst teams in the league so surely the home team cover desipte the big spread? Not a bet but what should happen.
Seahawks -6.5 @ Falcons: 44
The Seahawks are the best road team in the league, the Falcons aren’t really anything.
Not much to say that’s different from usual for the ‘Hawks, they walked over the Vikings last week and were able to do it without JSN putting up numbers which is good for them as a whole. Nothing from them prop-wise.
The Falcons quickly go away from Bijan Robinson at the goal-line so Tyler Allgeier is the only player I’d look at for a TD, best price 23/10 at WillHill and PaddyPower.
Titans +3.5 @ Browns: 34
Stink v Stink, the Titans look like they’ll be securing the 1 pick for the second year in a row while Myles Garrett is going to break the single season sack record this year which sits at 22.5, he needs 4 more and they may well come here against the QB who’s been sacked the most this season.
I don’t believe the Browns QB is very good so I don’t see many points on that side of things either, although Quishon Judkins is a decent running back and Dylan Sampson can break some as well.
The Titans team total sits at 13.5, if you can find u14.5 that’s probably a good bet for tonight.
Browns total sacks o3.5 – 6/10 (365); Isaiah Bond o10.5 rec. yards; Spears o2.5 receptions – 4/6 (PP) – As if my free bet-builder on PaddyPower is going to go on this shit…
Commanders -1.5 @ Vikings: 43.5
Jayden Daniels should be back for the Commanders but whether it’s him of Mariota they should get the job done in this one.
I personally believe the Vikings have been fucking with the league with how they’re dealing with their dodgy young QB. I wonder how quickly he’ll be pulled out of the game today, maybe a pinky injury or a back strain. Something tough to judge from the outside but that allows them to get him out of the team. Although JJ McCarthy looks like he might be better than one QB in the league at least as Brosmer was terrible last weekend.
Commanders win and cover. Foster Moreau the long-shot if you want one.
Bears +6.5 @ Packers: 44 (412)
The NFC North is in the Bears hands and a win here pretty much gets it wrapped up for them and would be a nice change from the Packers who own the Bears in recent years.
Rome Odunze misses out for the Bears and it sounds like that’s one that will be on or off for the rest of the season so they will need DJ Moore to step up, the veteran hasn’t had a great season. Cole Kmet and Colston Loveland should get more targets over the middle and Olamidde Zaccheaus has been reliable for 6-10 yard catches for a lot of the year. D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai have proven a good 1-2 punch on the ground with the rookie getting more of the goal-line chances. If they can dominate the run game as they did against the Eagles last week then they’ll win again.
The Packers are getting healthier on offense and should have Jayden Reed returning soon at WR. They were brave on 4th down when they opened Thanksgiving last week and it will be interesting to see how aggressive they are against a team they don’t need to be as risky against. Josh Jacobs should hit 20 carries here and they’ll try to dominate the ground game. It’s tough to pick anyone in the passing game, it was Wicks last week, this week probably reverts to Doubs, but they’ve got options all over. Christian Watson has been a welcome return for them, he looks like he’s never been out.
Bears on the spread for me here, they’ve been in close games all year and I don’t see that changing here, under on the total (although it is low) as I think both teams try to control the clock with their run game. Cole Kmet anytime – 17/2 That’s about 4 points higher than I expected him to be.
Rams -10 @ Cardinals: 48 (150/404)
The Rams have looked great this year, so obviously lost to the Panthers in the Carolina rain last week, the Cards are without Marv. Harrison again and could be done with Kyler Murray now with him missing the rest of the season.
Rams offense is Puka moving the ball and Adams finishing drives while they are increasingly using Blake Corum on the ground, he and Kyren Williams both scored last weekend with Kyren missing snaps with a knock, it’ll be interesting to see how they share carries in this one. Stafford also loves the TE’s with Colby Parkinson the main man in that area.
With Marv Harrison out we’ve seen that Michael Wilson will get peppered with targets, obviously the bookies know that as well with his line at 73.5 and 5.5 receptions, probably overs but the Rams defense is good.
Rams win, won’t be taking them to cover though.
Broncos -8 @ Raiders: 40.5
The Broncos just need to get the job done a couple more times to break the Chiefs AFC West streak and that shouldn’t be an issue against a dismal Raiders team.
Nothing prop-wise for the road team as the Broncos move the ball around the offense well. Maybe look at the backup RBs as the Broncos should dominate this one.
I will take o2.5 receptions for Tyler Lockett though at 11/10 on PP
Texans +3.5 @ Chiefs: 41.5
A big one for the playoff picture in the AFC as the Chiefs could feasibly miss out on the post-season this year. The Chiefs will be down at 10% chance with a loss, around 50/50 with a win, so it’s safe to say they need to get the job done here.
CJ Stroud had a decent enough game in their win last weekend, but he’s had a rough season and I’m not confident against this defense. It looks like Woody Marks is fine for the game despite an ankle injury which took him out for some of last weeks game, he’s been a good spark for them on the ground. Jayden Higgins is having a good rookie season as he, Hutchinson and Kirk share touches behind Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz.
The Chiefs lost to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving to put their season in the balance but Mahomes is playing as well as ever with most of their first-choice offense on the field. Pacheco came back last weekend and slotted in behind Kareem Hunt. Rashee Rice led them again through the air with Worthy and Kelce behind him, and then there’s a lot of mess for the rest of the offense.
This could be a defensive battle and with the Chiefs missing their LT against the best pass-rush in the league it could be a rough one for the Chiefs. Could they really miss the playoffs?! Form suggests taking the Texans but I just can’t do that. Jayden Higgins o3.5 receptions – 11/10
Eagles -2.5 @ Chargers: 41.5
The Eagles were terrible on Black Friday while the Chargers seem like the Falcons of the AFC, just impossible to call on a weekly basis.
It’s been a weird year for the Eagles where they haven’t impressed in any single game in my eyes, but they always have the potential to do so. Will this be a Smith or AJB game? Will Dallas Goedert be seen walking in for TDs? Will Saquon break away for a score? It feels like they’re struggling to metriculate and are relying on big shots which just isn’t how want to work. I just can’t call the Eagles.
I definitely have no ability to judge the Chargers on a weekly basis either, Justin Herbert has a messed up non-throwing hand which doesn’t affect things TOO much but when you’re a streaky QB anyway it probably hurts more. Keenan Allen looks the lead WR, Ladd McConkey behind him and Gadsden at TE probably the third target. Quinten Johnston typifies the team though, it’s feast or famine with him. They do welcome back Omarion Hampton who I think gets 80% of the touches on the ground with Vidal behind him. Hampton o43.5 rush yards – I’m not worried about Vidal taking too many touches away.
The Chargers are 3rd in total team defense, 2nd against the pass and a little lower against the run. The Eagles generally have a good defense but were dominated by the Bears last weekend. Got to lean to the Eagles but this is a firm stay-away for me to close the weekend.
TouchdownTips 
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