Week 15; Fantasy Playoff’s start

Some pivotal games on the slate today across the league, division could be decided, teams will be knocked out of contention. It’s all excitement, all the time! Unless you’re a Jets or Raiders fan. Then it’s just misery. Endless, constant misery.

It is time for the fantasy playoffs though! Congratulations if you made it to yours, and I hope your entire season hasn’t been ended already by a 40 point haul from Kyle Pitts from Thursday night where his 166 yards and 3 TDs helped the Falcons beat the Buccaneers to help swing the NFC South towards the Panthers once more.

On to Week 15!

Bills -1.5 @ Patriots: 49 (C5/412)

A win for the Patriots will essentially wrap up the division, a win for the Bills and we’ll be going to the end of the year. The Bills won last week, the Pats had their bye week, but come into this on the back of a 10-game win streak.

The Bills haven’t been the force they usually are in division and needed defensive turnovers to deal with the Bengals in snowy Buffalo last week, but they do always have one of the best QBs in the league. Whether they win the division or not they should make the playoffs and probably not having to face Mahomes or Burrow it’s the best chance the Bills have had in a while of making the big game.

Josh Allen puts the offense on his shoulders and tends to get things done when they’re needed, which is good as James Cook is the only other reliable asset on the offense. He should have had at least one TD last week but fumbled on the goal-line a few times to ruin his stat-line. Khalil Shakir is their best WR and can make moves after the catch, but other than him they’re relying on Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid at TE to move the ball down the field.

The Patriots aren’t littered with star talent on offense either but have got it done this year with Drake Maye up there with Matthew Stafford in the MVP betting, just goes to show what good coaching can do. TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson are sharing carries on the ground and the passing game is spread around everyone, with Hunter Henry probably the most consistent target. Stefon Diggs is the veteran player here but they move around Pop Douglas, Kayshon Boutte and even Kyle Williams who popped up with a TD last time out.

An interesting game where it really could be anyone, but I think I’ve got to trust the proven team here and go for the Bills. Or maybe it’s just that I don’t want the evil empire returning after such a short time off? In all realism, it’s a no bet. Kincaid o3.5 receptions – 10/11

Ravens -3 @ Bengals: 51.5 (404)

The Ravens won 5 in a row when Lamar returned but have now lost the last two and now face the Bengals for the second time in three weeks. They lost a close one to the Steelers last wekeend which leaves them 1.5 points behind their bitter rivals at 6-7. The Bengals loss to the Bills effectively leaves them on the outside looking in, but there’s still a glimmer of hope if they win tonight.

The Ravens and Lamar just haven’t looked right since he came back into the side and that’s come home to roost in recent weeks, but they still could have won last week if Likely’s TD stood instead of being ruled out. They always have a habit of hanging in there. Derrick Henry hasn’t hit his usual heights but has topped 1000 yards and has 10 TDs this year, they mixed in Keaton Mitchell a lot more last weekend as well and his pace could be key in this one. Zay Flowers is the main WR, as always with the TE’s behind him in Andrews and Likely, last week was the Likely week.

Joe Burrow set the rumour-mill aflame this week with his comments in his press conference leading to all sorts of ridiculous-ness, but he’s stuck in Cincinnati forever, so there is that. He’s been playing very well since his return but two horrible mistakes killed the game for the Bengals last weekend when it really counted. He still threw for 4 TDs, 2 of them to Tee Higgins who could be done for the season after suffering another concussion last weekend. Honestly it’s a disgrace that he was allowed back into the game and those responsible for that decision should be punished, he had just come back from concussion, hit his head and pointed to it. There’s no way he should have been allowed to carry on… anyway. Mitchell Tinsley takes the Tee spot, so is one I’ll be backing for a TD. It should mean more for Chase and Iosivas in the slot. Chase tends to do very well against the Ravens. Mike Gesicki had a big game at TE, hopefully that carries on.

I said it the first time these two played, Lamar Jackson usually smokes the Bengals on the ground, there were a ton of mistakes which cost them in the first matchup which won’t happen in this one, HOWEVER… I just don’t think the Ravens are playing well. It’s a tight game, the spread is probably correct, I’m leaning to the Bengals at home and the over. Isaiah Likely o3.5 receptions – 8/5; Mike Gesicki o3.5 receptions – 5.6 – I’ll probably have a builder with those receptions and TDs for each. There’s good value on all Bengals pass-catchers tbh, Yoshi and Tinsley at 2.5 receptions. Should be a high passing game and they have limited options. 17/4 the best price for Tinsley is a little lower than I wanted.

Chargers +6 @ Chiefs: 41.5

The Chargers beat the Eagles in OT on MNF last week while the Chiefs playoffs hopes are hanging by a thread after their loss to the Texans last weekend.

It’s not been pretty for the Chargers though with Herbert throwing u200 yards in their last 3 games which means there’s no real betting hope in the passing game for me. Allen, Ladd McConkey, Quinten Johnston all good on their days but there’s not been many days recently. Johnston probably the best at the odds, when he plays, but he’s out. Gadsden at TE came on for a while but has dropped back a bit along with the rest of the passing game. Omarion Hampton came off IR last week and shared carries with Vidal, I think it means more to Hampton as things go on but for now it’s split so there’s value in Vidal scoring at 5/1 (Sky/PP)

Mistakes littered the Chiefs game last week with vital drops from key players costing them, and the Texans D is very, very good. Mahomes stills gets it done in general, but was judged with 3 interceptions last weekend, not entirely on him. Travis Kelce generally has good games against the Chargers and Rashee Rice is the other usually reliable player. Worthy will get touches and with Hollywood Brown now out there might be more for JuJu at third/fourth option. Tyquan Thornton will get a deep shot or two. Isiah Pacheco is RB2 with Hunt now securing most of the RB snaps and the better TD threat.

Definitely leaning Chargers getting the points, and the under. But both teams are capable of scoring points if needed so stay away on total. I’ll take the shot on Vidal at 5/1 (PP/Sky)

Cardinals +10 @ Texans: 42.5

The Cards might be done with Kyler Murray, it’s Jake Brissett again at QB. The Texans beat the Chiefs and with their defense look like they could launch a run for the conference this year.

There’s no Marv Harrison again, so it’s another Michael Wilson game. He feasts without Marv so there’s a chance he tops his 67.5 yard line again. Trey McBride has 5+ receptions in 15 games, life has been better for him with Brisket in charge, he’s even scoring TDs now.

The Texans defense has been dominant and CJ Stroud looked like he could be back as well last week. Woody Marks is good to go on the ground, Nico Collins is the main man in the passing game, but Jayden Higgins has come on well towards the end of the year. Dalton Schultz the other main target, but they move the ball around well.

Texans win and probably cover. Looks like the Cards team total is 15.5. Under at Evens seems the sensible bet here. Jayden Higgins anytime – 16/5 (PP)

Browns +7.5 @ Bears: 38.5

The Browns lost to the Titans last week, the Bears to the Packers in a fun NFC North clash.

I’ll mention his name this week. Shedeur Sanders is starting for the rest of the year after throwing 4 TDs last weekend. Fair play to him. Quishon Judkins is the offensive weapon they want to focus on if they can, but at least they can move the ball better through the air now. Harold Fannin the main man in the TE spot, his lines are high though with David Njoku out of this one, 5.5 recs and 48.5 yards, eesh.

The Bears are fraudulent and I don’t think they win the division, but the future looks good for them under Ben Johnson, he’s got them running hard with Swift and Monangai sharing carries. The passing game is rough without Odunze, who looks like he’ll be playing tonight. The fall of DJ Moore is quite something.

Bears win, but I think it’s kept close, I don’t believe the Bears can blow anyone away. Fannin anytime – 14/5 (365), Maybe a small punt on Blake Whiteheart at TE2 for the Browns, 20/1 at Boylesports the standout price. (don’t take the 8/1 at PP)

Raiders +12.5 @ Eagles: 38.5

Geno Smith is out, so it’s “SUPERBOWL WINNER” Kenny Pickett coming to gain some vengeance on the team who brutally cut him. Because he’s shit. The Eagles aren’t playing well this year and need the win.

Jack Bech might be worth a look with Pickett at QB, seemed to throw to him a lot last week. Brock Bowers the only other person worth talking about. Ashton Jeanty has had a tough year on a terrible, terrible team.

The Eagles just aren’t working so I’m not taking anything on their side of things.

Eagles win, no bet on anything here though.

Jets +14 @ Jaguars: 41

The Jets are down to rookie Brady Cook at QB. The Jags have looked great since going more run-heavy.

Nothing on the Jets side of things, they’re without Mason Taylor as well, so maybe a look at my boy Jeremy Ruckert? No, I’m not taking o2.5 for him. John Metchie and Adonai Mitchell have been fine since starting but with this QB it’s no bet. 14/30, 163 yards, 0 TDs and 2 INTs for the kid finishing the game last weekend.

A win for the Jags takes them to 10 wins and a step closer to the AFC South championship. Travis Etienne took most of the carries last week finishing with 20 for 74 and 2 TDs with Tuten only having a couple of carries. The passing game isn’t great but Jakobi Meyers has been a useful addition since coming in.

Jags win, probably cover.

Commanders +2.5 @ Giants: 46.5

Marcus Mariota is back for the Commanders and it’s the second game since returning for Jaxson Dart.

The Commies were getting back to health but didn’t look great even before Daniel landed hards on his dodgy elbow last weekend. Chris Rodriquez the lead RB now, Terry McLaurin should have a good one.

Dart makes the Giants fun at least, Wan’Dale Robinson has been decent this year, Theo Johnson the other guy in the passing game. Devin Singletary and Tyrone Tracy sharing carries on the ground, I prefer Singles.

Giants should win and cover but it’s another no-bet.

Lions +6 @ Rams: 55 (404)

The late slate has a couple of crackers in this one and the Packers/Broncos game. The Lions have struggled against the best teams while the Rams got back on track last week but have the Seahawks on deck on TNF, so could be looking ahead to there.

I personally think Jahmyr Gibbs is the best back in the league, he can do it all and never seems to go down on the first tackle attempt, he ran in a hat-trick last weekend to make it 16 total on the season. Amon-Ra St. Brown has looked fine since suffering a knock and Jameson Williams has had some big games this year but still throws in the occasional dud. Monty had a TD last week at least but is solid RB2 territory now.

Matthew Stafford should be the MVP this year, another 3 TDs for him in a blow-out last week took him to 35 on the season, not bad for someone with a dodgy back. Puka Nacua usually only gets the yards but had the TDs to add to it last weekend, Devante Adams had a knock early on and didn’t have to be involved for most of the game, he’s been the TD threat for most of the year, both should do well against a dodgy Lions pass-defense. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum are proving probably the best 1-2 punch in the league with both scoring last weekend and to top it off the defense is pretty good as well. They’re a good team.

Rams should win and cover, but the Seahawks in a probable NFC West decider on Thursday worries me. They do still need this game though.

Packers -1 @ Broncos: 42.5 (412)

The Packers moved to the top of the NFC North with their win over the Bears last week while the Broncos only have the Chargers as challengers for the AFC West now, a win here pretty much seals the division for them.

Josh Jacobs seems to be fine to go after a worrying week with his knee injury, he’s the main man for them on the ground with Emmanuel Wilson coming in and running well when required. Christian Watson has added a vital thread to the Packers passing attack since his return and has made them a lot more potent on offense, Jayden Reed returned last week with 4 for 31 which relegates Romeo Doubs to WR3 now. It will be interesting to see who gets covered by Pat Surtain.

I am interested to see how the Broncos go against one of the NFC favourites. I don’t think they deserve the record they’ve got, but results are results and their defense is insane. Bo Nix gets is done when he’s needed and spreads the ball around his receivers. RJ Harvey hasn’t taken the chance he’s been gifted at RJ Harvey but is an average running back. From a betting perspective it’s tough on the Broncos side of things.

Obviously I think the Packers win and cover, but the under seems the more obvious bet really.

Colts +13.5 @ Seahawks: 41.5

There’s someone older than me playing this week! Literal Grandad Philip Rivers comes in a QB for the Colts. The Seahawks need the win to keep the pressure on the Rams in the NFC West.

God knows what this does for the Colts, it probably won’t be a good thing for them, but Rivers uses the same playbook when coaching his high school team and has been in regular contact with Steichen, so he knows what to run at least? I’ve got to think it means a lot more touches for Jonathan Taylor. Those deep shots to Alec Pierce may go away though, I can’t imagine Rivers has the arm strength any more. 153.5 passing yards for Rivers? Interesting.

The Seahawks have dominated on defense and the ground with Charbs and Walker moving the ball well in general, Walker let all fantasy owners down last weekend. JSN the only real man to target in their passing game. Their defense is the key thing here and against a QB who’s not played for a few years it should feast.

Seahawks win, probably cover, but obviously I won’t take that line. Oh man, I’ve just seen the odds on Colts pass-catchers… I might have to take some shots on Pittman at 5/1, Pierce at 15/2, Downs at 8/1. They’re just too high to ignore but I’ve not idea which I’ll plump for, I think Pierce is still the one I’d back if I was.

Panthers -3 @ Saints: 40.5

The Panthers have a chance to go a game ahead in division, but the Saints step it up in division as shown with their win against the Bucs last week.

The Panthers are far better at home and it’s always a hostile atmosphere in the Superdome. Dowdle and Hubbard shared carries last time they played with the Dowdle train seemingly slowing down. Tetairoa McMillan has had a good rookie season and Jalen Coker did something last time they played.

Tyler Shough might not be a long-term starter but he ran in a couple of TDs last week and won the game for his team. Devin Neal scored, he’s the lead back again, Juwan Johnson the only reliable pass-catcher for them though.

I actually think the Saints get it done here. Not one I’ll pay much attention to though.

Titans +12.5 @ 49ers: 44.5

The Titoons won in Cleveland last week with Cam Ward only getting sacked once. Remarkable stuff. The 49ers should make the NFC playoffs with CmcC still healthy. Weirdly both these teams beat the Browns last time they played.

Nothing on the Titans side, they’re too volatile. Tony Pollard had a huge game last week but I doubt that happens again this year.

The 49ers are getting healthier and will have appreciated the late bye-week. Ricky Pearsall hasn’t done much since returning with Jauan Jennings seemingly the WR1 now, it’s him and Kittle for most of the targets, oh and CmcC of course.

49ers win, probably cover, spread too big to bet.

Vikings +5.5 @ Cowboys: 47.5

JJ McCarthy might not be terrible? I’ve no idea. The Cowboys are 2 games back in their division but have their eyes on a wildcard spot.

It was McCarthy’s best game by a mile as he found his TE’s for all their TDs, but surely they’ll want some kind of connection with Justin Jefferson to form eventually? Jordan Addison led them in yards last time they played. Jordan Mason took the rushing TD as they split the carries on the ground.

The Cowboys have Ceedee Lamb playing, he was on for a huge game before leaving the game last week with concussion but he’s through protocol. That game was a Ryan Flournoy breakout, but he’ll probably go back to 2 receptions with Lamb returning, George Pickens volatility showed up in full effect when they needed him last week.

The Cowboys defense has improved since the trade deadline moves and for that reason I’ll go for the Cowboys winning and covering.

Dolphins +3 @ Steelers: 42.5

Uh oh, the Steelers are above 0.500, you know what that means! The Dolphins have had a decent run of form recently to make this an interesting and tough game to call.

De’von Achane is good to go after a knee injury scare last week, but they didn’t need him to blow out the Jets and Jaylen Wright looked fine as his replacement. Jaylen Waddle the obvious WR1. Greg Dulcich looked like he was close to a TD a couple of times and could be a decent look to find the endzone here.

Aaron Rodgers got the job done against the Ravens last week as he finally found a connection with DK Metcalf, that’s the one spot the Dolphins defense isn’t too bad against though, so will it carry on? Jaylen Warren wasn’t great on the ground but has a nicer matchup here and Kenneth Gainwell looked good once more, although both running backs found the endzone. They are without TJ Watt who is too weak to even battle through a measly partially collapsed young. It’s the WOKE I tells ya, THE WOKE! It wouldn’t have happened in my day, just put a plaster on it and get him out there… In all seriousness it weakens their pass rush but Highsmith and Herbig have been very good this year getting to the opposing QBs.

I want the Dolphins to win, of course. I think they’ve got a good chance of doing it.