The Seahawks won in Overtime on Thursday night to get to the top spot in the NFC but the Bears kept the pressure up with their own overtime win over the Packers early this morning to keep things interesting on that side of things. The Eagles win over the Commanders made them the first back-to-back NFC East champs in over two decades.
The AFC is fairly open still and will continue that way throughout the playoffs with the Chiefs now ruled out and Mahomes done for the season anyway. A win for the Broncos will pretty much get them the bye week but the Jags have been in great form as things are starting to get settled down.
Buccaneers -3 @ Panthers: 45.5 (412)
A game with real implications is the choice for Sky today as one of these teams will take a step towards the NFC South championship and the 4th seed in the NFC, and probably get to host the Rams. (A Spot the Panthers have already won in…)
The Bucs are getting back to health now with Evans, Godwin and Bucky Irving all playing the last few weeks. Evans has stepped straight back into the main man in the passing game with 132 last week in their loss to the Falcons. Bucky Irving is the main guy on the floor in terms of carries and he’ll catch a few as well. Their defense is still hurt with injuries though which gives opportunities for their opponents.
The Panthers are 4-2 at home, although one of those with with Dalton at QB, so it’s an even better with Bryce Young under center, he’s been fine this year, but they want to use the run game which has gone back towards Chuba Hubbard now with Rico Dowdle getting snaps as well. Their passing game is spread around with all the self-proclaimed Coke-heads celebrating last week as Jalen Coker found the endzone. Tet McMillan and Xavier Legette have big games here and there but it’s tough to predict.
The Bucs have won 9 of the last 10 between the teams so I’ve got to go for their side of things. Bucky Irving anytime – 6/4 (PP/Sky)
Bills -10.5 @ Browns: 41.5 (C5)
The Bills have their best chance of making a Super Bowl with how lacklustre the AFC is this year and if they win out to close the season they’ll probably be on the road in Pittsburgh, a very winnable game. Josh Allen is great, their defense is fine, the recieving corps, not quite so much. James Cook is having another good year.
The Browns are starting Sheduer Sanders for the rest of the year and he’s been fine in all fairness. They’re without David Njoku and Dylan Sampson again so we know Harold Fannin probably gets most of the targets in the passing game and Quishon Judkins will get the rush attempts after a down game last weekend.
The main focus for neutrals on this game should be Myles Garrett who needs 1.5 sacks to set the single-season sack record. It won’t be easy against Allen but I wouldn’t put it past him. Bills win, Browns on the spread, over total. You know what, lets go a bit crazy – Isaiah Bond o13.5 rec yards – 10/11, 50+ rec yards 7/1.
L.A. Chargers +1.5 @ Dallas Cowboys: 50.5 (404)
The Chargers are currently the 5th seed on their side of things, the Cowboys are officially out of the running after the Saturday games.
I don’t rate the Chargers this year but I’m obviously missing something. Omarion Hampton and Vidal split carries again with the rookie doing better, they spread the ball around in the passing game with Allen having a good year back in LA, Ladd McConkey and now rookie Tre’ Harris looking like he’s getting a bit more involved
George Pickens has had a few down games and bit back at critics this week, as he does. He and Lamb are a good 1-2 punch though. Javonte Williams started the season on fire but he dropped as the whole offense has and the improvement in their defnese hasn’t been quite enough for them to keep up their challenge.
On paper seems a fun game for the neutral but the Chargers don’t seem to be involved in those this year. Under on the total. Probably lean to the Cowboys.
Bengals -4 @ Dolphins: 48.5
The Bengals were inept last weekend and the rumours around Burrow are infuriating, but the team needs change and this SHOULD be the third to last game Zac Taylor has in charge of the team. Tee Higgins is apparently going to play, I don’t think he should after two concussions in three weeks.
The Dolphins have finally benched Tua and are starting Quinn Ewers, the 7th round draft pick so it’s hard to have too much faith in their offense today. He should be able to copy Tua and get it to De’von Achane on dump offs though, and the Bengals are dismal against the TE so I’ll probably be on Dulcich at his odds over Waller. Maybe it’s Julian Hills day!? Backup to backup?
Julian Hill o3.5 rec yards – 10/11; Greg Dulcich – 13/2 (Sky/PP)
Kansas City Chiefs -3 @ Tennessee Titans: 37.5
The Chiefs are out of the playoffs! They’re starting Gardner Minshew! The Titans are terrible!
Minshew 8/1 anytime (365) to run one in. I want to lean to the Titans against a backup QB but I can’t do it. Under on the total makes sense, Chig Okonkwo is a big price if you wanted one from the Titans for some reason.
Minnesota Vikings -2.5 @ N.Y. Giants: 43
The Vikings not being terrible the last few weeks shows how stupid people like myself are in saying a QB is useless after just a few games. JJ McCarthy has been annoyingly good in the last few and they’ve been winning meaningless games. He still can’t find one of the best WRs in the league but his TEs and Jordan Addison are getting good touches.
The Giants are fun without being very good, so this might be a decent game. Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton both had 10 targets last week which weren’t really converted so look to them for props.
Vikings win and cover. Darius Slayton longest reception o20.5, Devin Singletary o0.5 rec yards. Feels like we should be taking Josh Oliver anytime at 13/2 (WillHill) again.
N.Y. Jets -6.5 @ New Orleans Saints: 40.5
Who cares. Brady Cook starts again, Tyler Shough isn’t doing too bad in his audition for the main role in New Orleans.
Adonai Mitchell scored for the Jets, John Metchie has been fine as well, probably a decent odds TD scorer here but I can’t pick who.
Devin Neal has been pretty good for them as lead back but he joins Alvin Kamara on the sideline so we’re expecting Audric Estime to get the lead RB role in this one. This used to be good for bettors but the bookies are much tighter on NFL these days.
Saints win and cover. The Jets aren’t good.
Jaguars +3.5 @ Broncos: 47.5 (412)
The Jags look like they’re going to be taking the AFC South but need to keep ahead of the Texans who have surged in recent weeks while the Broncos will be sealing the AFC West with a win and have their eyes on the 1 seed which they’ll pretty much get with a win.
Trevor Lawrence has settled into Leon Coens offense and has looked great in recent weeks, as shown by the 5 TDs he threw against the Jets last weekend. They traded for Jakobi Meyers mid-season and have already decided to give him a contract extension, good for him. They’re without Tuten for at least this week with a broken finger and Travis Etienne cements his role even more after he caught 3 TDs last week, running one in from 45 yards. Good luck doing that against this defense.
The Broncos… obviously a good team predicated on their defense which is the best in the league and seemingly one of the best in recent years, but I still don’t trust Bo Nix. Maybe it’s because they’re usually the late slate and I don’t watch them enough? Maybe I’m being too harsh on him, or maybe it’s just that without a focal point they don’t have one guy making plays. If it’s that last one then I should shut up and appreciate them. Sutton is the main guy, Troy Franklin does his bits and even LilJordan Humphrey popped up with a score last week.
The Jags have been really impressive in recent weeks but this Broncos defense will give them a real challenge. I’m taking the home team to continue their great season and get the job done. Zach Allen to record a sack – 13/10; Jakobi Meyers – 2/1 (most)
Steelers +7 @ Lions: 52.5 (150/404)
Aaron Rodgers Steelers are now two games above 0.500 after easily beating the Dolphins on Monday night without TJ Watt. The Lions need wins to try and sneak into a wildcard spot.
Kenneth Gainwell is the man for the Steelers and probably the most reliable guy on that side of the ball. 20 touches for 126 yards for him last week, but no score. He’ll get on here. Jaylen Warren gets rushes as well but it’s tough to trust any of the passing game on a regular basis. I feel DK Metcalf gets a good matchup here but that doesn’t seem to matter, it’s varied.
The Lions have been frustrating to back but are one of the better home teams in the league, especially against the AFC. Jahmyr Gibbs has gone 3-0-3-0-3-0 in terms of TDs scored, so sorry Steelers but it’s his hat-trick week this week. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams are most of their passing game and David Montgomery gets the odd TD, he’s had 3 in a row now.
Lions win and cover. Steelers should still get the AFC North though. Is it worth a shot at Connor Heyward on the tush-push again? 8/1 if you fancy that.
Atlanta Falcons -3 @ Arizona Cardinals: 48.5
IT’S A GOOD OLD FASHIONED TIGHT-END-OFF!!!!
The Falcons pulled off a shock win last weekend with Kyle Pitts having the 5th best TE game EVER with his hat-trick and 166 yards from 11 receptions. So knowing how this Falcons team has been this year they’ll score 9 points this week and lose convincingly.
The Cardinals having been sleep-walking through most of the season but have Trey McBride on the best TE run ever in terms of receptions. Marvin Harrison is back so that means Micheal Wilson probably disappears once more. Michael Carter probably the main RB.
Probably Pitts and McBride over 5.5 and 6.5 respectively. Wilson u5.5 receptions. The Falcons should win but I feel it’s a rare Cardinals win, so obvious no-bet.
Las Vegas Raiders +14.5 @ Houston Texans: 37.5
The Raiders are probably a worse team than the Titans, they turn back to Geno Smith after they were shut out last weekend. The Texans defense is up there with the Broncos as the best in the league and they’ll maul Geno in this one.
I won’t take -14.5 but that’s the side to be on in my eyes.
Patriots +3 @ Ravens: 49
The Pats needs the win to keep up the chase for the 1 seed, the Ravens need another to keep the pressure on the Steelers.
The Pats gave up a huge lead to lose to the Bills last weekend but I think we can still be impressed with them despite the result last weekend. TreVeyon Henderson set a record of long-TDs for the Patriots with a 65-yarder last weekend as part of his double. The passing game fell off a cliff last week but they’ll be hoping to bounce back against a Ravens defense that has generally been poor, but shut out the Bengals last weekend.
The Ravens had a walk-over last week as the Bengals shit the bed, Lamar Jackson made some of the best passes he has all year in that win, although he only had to throw 12 times, Zay Flowers actually managed to hold on to the ball to lead them in recieving. Annoyingly I was on Keaton Mitchell but it was the other backup RB Rasheen Ali who scored, might be worth a punt on one of them.
Very tough one to call, I think I’d be leaning the Pats though, they’ve been the more consistent team this year.
49ers -5.5 @ Colts: 46.5
The 49ers are still in the hunt in division but it looks more likely now that they’ll be 5th or 6th seeds. The Colts have dropped off and are now looking to scrape into a playoff spot with old-man Rivers at QB.
49ers are getting healthier but have chosen to give Ricky Pearsall a week off, he’s not done much since his return anyway, so George Kittle probably gets more targets, it’s him and Jennings in the passing game, and Christian McCaffrey doing everything everywhere all at once.
The Colts will try and be mainly Jonathan Taylor on the ground and probably more in the passing game. The passing game is tough to call but last week it was spread around Warren, Pittman, Taylor and Downs so Rivers is still looking to get things done there. 18/27 wasn’t terrible for his first game in half a decade.
49ers win and cover. Sorry Colts.
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