Week 17; It’s Christmas (Week) – Da Bears are NFC North Champs!

Bucs -5.5 @ Dolphins: 44.5 (C5/404)

The Bucs need to win out to take the NFC South away from the Panthers who beat them last week, and they face next weekend. The Dolphins give Quinn Ewers another start in the battle fo Florida.

Things didn’t really click for the Bucs last weekend and going away from Bucky Irving at the goal-line may have killed them as White and Tucker repeatedly failed to get into the endzone. Evans led in receptions again with Egbuka falling off a little since everyone else has returned to health.

Quinn Ewers was fine but his rookie-ness and 7th round-ness came to the fore in the second half as multiple turnovers cost them in a big loss to the Bengals. De’von Achane will get a lot of the ball again, he scored early on but had a quiet second-half for them, Jaylen Wright found the endzone again as the backup. As you’d expect Waddle led in receptions with Waller and Dulcich having 3 recs each.

I am a little surprised the spread is under 7. Bucs win and cover. Gimme that 17/2 for Jaylen Wright (365). Achane o26.5 rec yards

Seahawks -7 @ Panthers: 42.5 (412)

The Hawks are in control of the NFC West after their win over the Rams last week, and they boast the best away record in the league. The Panthers need to win to keep their spot atop the NFC South, but either way that division looks like it will be going to their game with the Bucs next week.

Walker between the 20s, Charbonnet getting the scores, JSN deep down the field, and a very solid defense, that’s the usual gameplan for the Seahawks. AJ Barner found the endzone again last week and is the most likely outside of JSN and Charbs. Not a whole lot outside of the main men here.

The Panthers are 5-2 at home with some nice wins so things aren’t dead for them here. Tetairoa McMillan notched his 7th of the season and is the heavy favourite to take the OROY crown ahead of Tyler Shough. McMillan will probably be the most targeted on their team but they’ve been a tough one to call on a weekly basis. It could be Coker or Legette. The run game is closer to 50/50 now too with Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard sharing snaps there.

Tough one to call. It feels like a Seahawks win but I’d probably lean to the Panthers covering the spread as they have been very good at home. Chuba Hubbard probably the value TD scorer at 7/2, but Charbonnet at Evens seems fine.

Jaguars -5.5 @ Colts: 48.5 (404)

The Jags look like they’ll be taking the AFC South but need to win here with the Ttians on deck next weekend. The Colts had their season ended last night with the Texans winning their 8th game in a row.

Fair play to the Jags, they are a very good team with Liam Coen and Trevor Lawrence seems to have cut out his idiotic mistakes…let’s see how he does in the playoffs. Jakobi Meyers has been very useful since coming in, he had 4-45 last weekend, and they may have found another useful player in the passing game with Parker Washington having a career game last week, 145 yards and a TD for him against a very good Denver defense. Useful for them as Brian Thomas has been and afterthought this season. Travis Etienne has TDs in 6 of 7 games and multiple in most of them so he’ll be the one to target for a TD at short odds. (was expecting more than 8/15 though).

The Colts put up a fight with Philip Rivers last week in their loss to the 49ers. Alec Pierce had nothing in Rivers week 1, but 2 TDs last week, the ball was spread around though with Downs and Tyler Warren leading in targets in that one. JT found the endzone but his numbers are way down with an immobile QB under center.

Jags roll on and probably cover in a high scorer, it’s overs for me. Etienne o19.5 rec yards.

Cardinals +7 @ Bengals: 53

Both of these teams are plodding on to the end of the season, the Cardinals are in the division of death and the Bengals defense has killed them for most of the year.

Marv Harrison looks like he’s good to go, so that kills off a lot of the Michael Wilson targets, they really look better without Marv playing but he’s a high draft pick. Carters, Kiner and Demercado shared carries last week, assume Carter will be the lead again, but who knows. Elijah Higgins led in receptions, but this should be a smash spot for Trey McBride as the Bengals are dreadful against the TE and he’s the best in the league in his position… I will struggle to take o80.5 and 8+ receptions, maybe the 20.5 and 2.5 on Higgins will be my bet.

The Bengals offense has never been an issue and their defense took advantage of a rookie QB to give good starting positions last week. Chase Brown was the man last week, will they get Chase a few scores this weekend? He made the pro bowl for the 5th consecutive season this year, but Higgins is the redzone guy.

Bengals should win, but who knows with them, could be their down week. Trey McBride is 11/8 at Boylesports, but I’m fine with anything over even for him. Maybe McBride 100 and 2 TDs at probably decent odds. Gesicki is in a good spot too for the Bengals, he’s best priced 3/1 at Boyles.

Patriots -13.5 @ Jets: 42.5

The Pats could still get the 1 seed if they win out, the Jets may as well not exist.

Pats are tough to call from a betting standpoint, the ball moves around a lot and both RBs can get things done, Henderson is through concussion protocol. Demario Douglas the highest priced regular WR for them at 5/1, arguably you’re best taking the highest priced guy here as I wouldn’t want 3/1 on Kyle Williams or 9/4 on Mack Hollins.

The Jets need to lose and hope results go their way elsewhere to try and get that 1 pick. Adonai Mitchell probably the best scorer bet for them at 4/1

Pats win, probably cover but I won’t take that. Nothing on total

Saints -1.5 @ Titans: 39.5

Tyler Shough has had a fair year since coming in, they killed the Jets last week, the Titans recorded an easy win over the Chiefs (imagine that at the start of the year).

Taysom Hill did a bit of everything for the Saints last week, threw a TD, rushed 12 for 42 yards and caught 4 for 36 to become the first player (in the Super Bowl era) with 1000s in each column. He led them on the ground with Estime and and Hull doing little behind him. Chris Olave had a huge game with 2 scores and 148 yards as he looks to finish off the season strong after reportedly considering retirement mid-year after concussions. Juwan Johnson as solid as ever at TE for them.

Tony Pollard had another big game with over 100 yards and Cam Ward had his best of the season with 2 TDs and no turnovers, only taking 2 sacks. Spears found the endzone again at fair odds. Okonkwo was 13/2 to score last week as well, he led them in receptions as they moved the ball around pretty well.

Still a 3/1 around Tyjae Spears at Sky/PP/Betfred, I’ll probably take o2.5 receptions and a TD for Spears, one I’ve been high on for a lot of the year. As for the game, I’m taking Saints to win. If you fancy Taysom to do something similar to last week there’s a 13/2 and 16/1 available for 3 and 4 receptions on Bet365.

Steelers -3.5 @ Browns: 34.5

The Steelers need the win to seal the AFC North, the Browns need a sack from Myles Garrett for him to get the season record in that area.

A remarkable catch from the ressurgent Kenneth Gainwell changed the game last weekend as the Steelers beat the Lions and he’ll probably be the key to this one as well, as he has been for most of the year. They finished strong with Warren running in 2 late TDs, and Rodgers kept the ball safe for once, it was all they needed. DK Metcalf is suspended for the rest of the regular season after an altercation with a fan so er… Calvin Austin is WR1, so it’s probably more Washington, Muth and Smith at TE who get the extra targets.

Sheduer Sanders has miraculously overcome a broken fingernail to come back as the starting QB, but Quishon Judkins will miss most of the summer after a horrible injury last week. Dylan Sampson and Raheim Sanders probably sharing carries, I guess? Or it might be former Bengals failure Trayveon Williams who led them in yards last week. Fannin is questionable but looks like he’ll play as a key man at TE for them.

All the rec lines for the Steelers are low, so you can probably make some good money on them. o21.5 for Thielen probably the best? I’d probably take o10.5 for Bond again as well, but it’s risky and o2.5 receptions for Sampson might be a good one too. I actually like the o34.5 but I could be very stupid. Steelers win and cover a small spread.

Eagles +1.5 @ Bills: 44.5

The Eagles have the NFC West wrapped up, the Bills need wins to keep up the pressure on the Pats.

An easy win for the Eagles last week with Saquon finishing 132/1 TD, AJB led in yards while Smith and Goedert got the scores, the story of a weird season for them. I might actually take the 12/1 on Tank Bigsby getting in again, although I don’t see it being a blowout so he may only get one or two chances. I’m not a fan of them this year so I’ll probably leave it all alone.

The Bills have a wildcard spot secured at least and their best chance of making the Super Bowl, although Josh Allen will have to be at his best for another 6 games or so. They need the run game working to get their wins as the passing game just isn’t really there. Dawson Knox though has come on in recent weeks, but it’s shared between him, Kincaid and Hawes. Shakir is the WR1 but there’s not much behind him as they apparently hate Keon Coleman who was a healthy scratch again last week. James Cook is leading the league in rush yards at the moment and should do well against an Eagles defense which has struggled against the run recently.

Despite me being down on both of these in general, should be a close game. I’d probably take the Bills at home but it will need to be another Josh Allen dominant game. Hurts and Allen both to score will probably be boosted somewhere, probably decent enough. Goedert at 5/2 a nice price as well.

Giants -2.5 @ Raiders: 41.5

Loser wins, winner loses! The battle for the #1 overall pick!

The Giants are trusting in their natural terrible-ness to get the 1 pick after Jaxson Dart completed 1 pass in the first half last weekend. Safe to say I won’t be taking any receiving lines on their players in this one, especially with Theo Johnson out. Bellinger is probably the beneficiary of Johnson being out, at 11/2 anytime, 4/1 (WillHill) the best of the mainstream but it’s a risk for a coaching team that has probably been told to try and not win.

The Raiders are going hard for it after putting Brock Bowers on IR and telling Maxxxxxx Crosby he won’t play for the rest of the year, and starting Geno Smith shows their lack of trying as he’s been awful this year. They did finally give Ashton Jeanty a good game last week and he should get a lot of touches here. Tre Tucker the WR1? Jack Bech has had more touches as the season closes and Michael Mayer will probably get a lot with Bowers out.

It’s all shit. I guess lean under the total as there will probably be a lot of rushing here. Jeanty o18.5 rush attempts.

Bears +3.5 @ 49ers: 52.5

The Bears are the NFC North champs but will be looking for a win here to try and keep the 1 spot on that side of things. The 49ers have come on strong now they’re getting healthier.

Odunze is out again for the Bears, so I guess DJ Moore might have another good game after a couple in a row now (after a useless season). I’ll be honest, I can’t judge the Bears so it’s probably pointless me talking about them. Swift and Monangai are a good 1-2 on the ground.

The 49ers have had a very easy schedule this year but they’ve looked good in their wins as well. Cmc had another 3 TDs last week to take him to 16 on the season and he’s nearing 2000 combined yards as well. Purdy threw for 5 TDs with Kittle, Jennings and Robinson getting one alongside CmcC’s double. Kittle is questionable but it looks like he’ll pull through to play, look for Tonges is he doesn’t, although not at under 2/1 like he is at 365.

The Bears have kept every game close this year, so while I think the 49ers are the much better team I’d have to be leaning to them over a field goal. McCaffrey o5.5 receptions 20/21

Rams -8 @ Falcons: 50

The Rams lost control of the NFC West last week with a gutting loss to the Seahawks. The Falcons are underdogs, so no doubt they’ll pull off the shock here. Such an annoying team to keep an eye on.

Devante Adams is officially doubtful so I think it’s safe to assume he’ll miss out, so 15 targets for Puka and probably a TD or two. Konata Mumpfield was the 2nd guy behind him last week, I was hoping for more than 3/1 for him as Blake Corum and Kyren Williams will probably get all the goal-line work and the TEs are all involved, led by Parkinson.

This Bijan Robinson fella is pretty good, another 150+ yard game and a TD for him last weekend. Drake London returned but isn’t at full health so he and Pitts both got a lot of targets and Bijan led them out of the backfield. Pitts is having his best year as he enters free agency looking for a decent deal. Tyler Allgeier will get carries at the goal-line.

Konata Mumpfield o2.5 receptions – only had 3 last weekend but from 8 targets. Rams should win, but it wouldn’t shock me at all if the Falcons got it done.