WHAT A START TO WILDCARD WEEKEND! I will admit it was laziness rather than much else that led me to miss the previews for the Saturday’s games, and I got the Panthers covering the spread right in my mind, but I couldn’t have predicted what happened in either!
The Rams overcame the Panthers with a game-winning touchdown from Colby Parkinson with 40 seconds left in the game. I caught the first 3 quarters and the Rams should have been out of sight by half-time, but the Panthers followed my advice of stopping Puka Nacua and slowed the LA offense significantly to take a 31-27 lead just before the 2 minute warning. Matthew Stafford though is in the top 2 in the MVP betting for a reason though and led them to the winning score to close out the game. The Rams lost here in the regular season as well, so there’s something about Carolina which gets them, but they’ve overcome that now to take the 5th seed into the divisional round next weekend. Rams v Seahawks next week if things play out according to seeding?
The late game was infinitely more exciting than I could have imagined, I predicted 40 points in my picks contest and with the score at 21-6 at the end of the 3rd quarter it looked like I’d called it pretty well, but 31 points in a remarkable 4th quarter blew out any unders that might have been there. I guess Ben Johnson is a pretty good offensive mind! I’ve not watched any of this game so can’t really comment on it other than the box score, but Caleb Williams and the Bears got the job done in the end to overcome their Packers hoodoo and they’ll be hosting a game next weekend as well as the 2nd seeds.
Bills +1.5 @ Jaguars: 51
The AFC playoffs kick off with every team thinking they’ve got a chance without Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the running this year.
My first thought is that this total is a tad lower than I’d have expected, and the spread is about right. It’s flipped through the week as the Bills opened (wrongly in my eyes) as favourites on the road in Jacksonville.
Josh Allen is a two-time regular season MVP and the fact that the offense is pretty much just him and James Cook gives him good reason to have been thought of in that calibre again this year. He’s not been great in the post-season though, although it’s games against the Bengals (1 loss) and Chiefs (3 losses) which have been his downfall and even then, it’s a bit harsh for me to put much of the blame on him. He has been superb this season without a whole lot of help from a relatively weak roster. 25 passing TDs, 14 rushing TDs for him this season and he finished the season with a double in a loss against the Eagles.
The addition of Brandin Cooks didn’t seem to do a whole lot, but he had a couple of deep shots in the last proper game they played so he could be one to look at for longest reception bets (7/1 at Boylesports for him anytime). The usual passing game is Khalil Shakir and the tight ends, with Dawson Knox more involved towards the end of the season but a now fully healthy Dalton Kincaid a good look most weeks. They’ll spread the ball around the rest of the lower recievers, but I don’t want to get my money on any of Palmers, Shavers or Gabe Davis. Oh shit. Gabe Davis revenge game!
The run game has been very good, as it tends to be with a mobile QB controlling the offense; James Cook led the lead in rushing yards for the season and added nearly 300 yards through the air as he notched 14 TDs on the season and given his large amount of carries, averaging over 5 yards per carry was very impressive. They do rotate their backs on drives, with Ty Johnson in on a lot of 3rd downs (7/1 anytime) and even Ray Davis popping up every now and then, and of course Josh Allen is officially the best rushing and passing QB in the league, which always helps.
I don’t rate the Bills defense so I’m expecting a lot of points from both sides here.
I have repeatedly written off Trevor Lawrence and I still feel he’s capable of throwing multiple INTs in a game, but his second half of the season was incredible as the Jags finished with 8 wins in a row, the win against the Broncos where he threw 3 TDs and rushed in for one as well was the highlight and showed that the Jags are properly in contention this year. He threw 12 interceptions on the season, but only one in their final 6 games where the run game properly got off the ground and some of the throws he makes on the run show why he was the 1st pick in his draft.
Travis Etienne finished the season with 13 TDs split between the passing game and rush game, including a hat-trick of receiving scores against the terrible Jets. He gets the bulk of the carries with Bhayshul Tuten mixing in as well and, in my eyes, the better short down back, so usually a good one for a TD at a higher price, around 3/1 today.
The passing game was expected to go through Brian Thomas Jnr. who had a great rookie year but an injury early in the season seems to have affected him all year and it’s now the slot guy, Parker Washington who seems to have emerged as the stud in the passing game; 18 receptions, nearly 350 yards and a couple of TDs in the final 3 games he played in the regular season and if he gets free he’s very tough to stop due to his kick-return elusivity. They traded for Jakobi Meyers at the deadline who has been a good addition and earned huimself a new contract with the team. The return of Brenton Strange at TE has been important for the offense as well, another good red-zone target for them.
The Jags pass-rush has been very good this year, and they’ll be put to the test against Josh Allen. Quite satisfyingly, we may well get a Josh (Hines) Allen sack on Josh Allen.
Wow, a tough one to call. It feels like it’s the Jags year. They’ve been great to close out the season as Liam Coen’s offense starts clicking, maybe a good reminder that coaching really does matter in this league. I think I’ll be taking Jags +1.5, over on the total.
As for props. Quarterbacks tend to run more in the playoffs and with both of these QBs liking to run anyway it’s likely they’ll go over their lines. 38.5 for Allen, 25.5 for Lawrence. I’ll probably get Lawrence o25.5 in a builder, they’re both quite short to score (Bryce Young was 15/2 yesterday) at 10/11 and 15/8 respectively so I’ll probably avoid those.
I’ve never heard of AKBets but according to Oddschecker, they’re the highest price for most TD scorers.
49ers +6 @ Eagles: 44.5
The 49ers had one of the easier schedules in the NFL this year, but had to deal with a TON of injuries so getting this far is still a pretty impressive achievement. The Eagles haven’t destroyed anyone all season, but had the toughest schedule of any NFC team so come into the playoffs battle-hardened and of course as the reigning champs they know how to get through the post-season.
I thought this total would be higher. The Eagles do have a very good defense but the weather seems like it will be fine and the 49ers have shown they can rack up points, and with the injuries on their defense still lingering, struggle to stop teams as well. The line was opened at 3, was 4.5 earlier in the week and now sits at 6. Money is obviously on the Eagles.
Brock Purdy. What a guy. It’s been multiple years and I still don’t have a good grip on whether he’s top 10 or not. The game about the Bears shows that he’s one of the best in the league when he’s on his game but I still feel there’s disaster waiting on every play as well. He needs good protection, so getting Trent Wiliams on the field will be important for them, but he’s a good scrambler and with CMC on the field he always tends to have a get-out on any play. I highlighted the Bears game where he accounted for 5 TDs, but with the 1 seed on the line he then had his worst game of the year against the Seahawks.
Christian McCaffrey has made it through the full season and topped 2,000 total yards on the year with 17 TDs in that. The run game hasn’t been great for them and he’s struggled to break big runs for most of the season but it’s his receiving work which is an extension of the run game for them where he specialises. Brian Robinson has had some decent work for the 49ers but has struggled to find the endzone, hence the usual pretty big price for him of 10/1 at 365.
George Kittle is a big part of the passing game and the most reliable fella they’ve got in that aspect, he may well top 5.5 but it’s a tough line for me to take against a very good Eagles defense. Jauan Jennings is the WR1 for them, and he came back quite nicely to finish out the season with Ricky Pearsall never really coming back from his injury and the rookie will be officially questionable having no practised this week. Demarcus Robinson adds a little but it’s the 3 main guys and the odd bit behind them, I’d probably trust TE2 Josh Tonges over the rest of the WRs, especially at 10/1 and above at most mainstream books… WilliamHill are a disgrace for anytime bets btw…
The 49ers defense is still beaten up and has not got any better.
I struggle with the Eagles offense this year, it’s not been good. Jalen Hurts ranks 20th in QBR and hasn’t even really been able to rush the ball into the endzone for much of the year, the relative ineffectiveness of the tush push from where it’s been the past few years has been satisfying to neutrals to see but makes them a tough watch for non-fans. He’s never been the most accurate but is always a threat with his legs and will hit deep shots when they get behind.
They rely a lot on Saquon Barkley and it’s been a tough year for him after his huge season last year, just the 1,140 yards and 7 TDs this season, and remarkably un-used in the passing game as well, even less so as they closed out the season, just 2 receptions in his final 5 games. Tank Bigsby will get a few carries per game as RB2 and they might get a touch or two to Will Shipley.
AJ Brown and Devonta Smith have always been tough for me to call, but can both have 200 yards and multiple TD games if things go their way. My thoughts without much research are that AJB probably has a good matchup against a weak 49ers defense and he may be the one they lean towards, but Hurts seems to have been more on Smith for a lot of the season and he’s the deeper threat. You’ll probably get a shot or two towards Jahan Dotson ass well. Dallas Goedert has been the most reliable in the passing game though with 11 TDs on the season whether from the usual TE position or on Jet sweeps near the goal-line, a play they’ve used a few times this year.
The Eagles defense is elite and boasts a few 1st team all-pros, they’ll be basing their game on being able to restrict the 49ers.
Now that it’s up to nearly a TD I’ll be taking the 49ers, I trust the offensive play-calling more on that side of the ball than the Eagles side of things. HOWEVER I do think feel it’s 50/50 on Purdy having a good or terrible game, so it could easily be a blow-out on the other side of things. I feel it should be another over, but I’ll be saying that for all games today, so inevitably it’ll be a dud-day after some big scoring yesterday.
Again I’ll be looking at QB rush yards, o17.5 for Purdy is preferable to the 30.5 for Hurts. 2/1 for Goedert is probably the sensible shorter priced bet, and I might look towards Juszkskeysyzyk at 14/1 as well, playoff games bring crazy plays.
Chargers +3.5 @ Patriots: 45.5
As with Josh Allen, it feels like the best chance that Justin Herbert has had to progress through the playoffs, while on the other side of the ball Drake Maye has had an MVP-worthy year and will look to continue that against a good Chargers defense.
Spread is about right but the total is once again a little lower than I’d have had it, so that’s an easy look for me straight away. The Chargers had a middling schedule while the Patriots had one of the easiest in the regular season, although they did deal with teams impressively in general.
Justin Herbert is rated as one of the better QBs in the league, but he’s one I’ve got a blindspot on so I can’t really judge him, especially behind such a poor pass and run blocking line which has been riddled with injuries for much of the season. His post-season record isn’t convincing either but I do appreciate their coaching team so I won’t be writing him, or them off.
The passing game has largely gone through the returning Keenan Allen for much of the season and he’s been the most reliable on a weekly basis, but Ladd McConkey and Quinten Johnston have both popped up with important contributions during the season. Johnston being quite boom or bust as the deeper threat, but he’s also the most likely to find the endzone of the 3. The end of the season has seen Tre Harris and KeAndre Lambert-Smith more involved as well, so they’ve got options at WR. Ordonde Gadsden had a blow up in the middle of the year and probably remains the TE1 although Will Dissly will be involved too.
Omarion Hampton has returned as the definite RB1 for the team as he finished with 5 TDs on the season after a long break with injury ruined the middle of the year for him. It’s not easy behind the offensive line but he’s been pretty good despite that. Kimani Vidal and Hassan Haskins will probably get a few carries too.
They’re a good defense and that will be the key to them winning this one.
The Patriots have been the surprise of the year for me, sure Drake Maye looked all right last year but his leap forward this season has been very impressive. 1st in QBR, 4th in yards, 3rd in TDs, and he set the record for completion percentage with 21/23 against the Titans earlier in the season. He’s got a well-rounded offense to use and he does it well. Fair play to him.
The run game has been very good for them with Rhamondre Stevenson bouncing back to form in recent weeks to compliment, or be complimented by TreVeyon Henderson to form a really nice 1-2 punch in the run game. Stevenson finished the year with 6 TDs in his final 3 games to put a statement on his season, while Henderson tends to be the more big-run threat for the team, all behind one of the best OL’s in the league.
The passing game is mixed around well with Stefon Diggs the WR1 when he’s not beating up or impregnating various women, he’s not scored that many but has been there when required as the veteran in the WR room. Other than him it’s tough to call between Demario Douglas, Kayshon Boutte, Kyle Williams, Mack Hollins, all of whom are speedy receivers who can be found by the arm of Maye for big TDs if things go right for them. The most reliable player in the passing game is Hunter Henry who is a valuable red-zone target and useful for moving the ball down the field as well, and there’s Austin Hooper who’ll pop up every now and then as well.
The Patriots have had a good season on defense as well.
This is a good test of post-season trends. Generally you take the team who’ve played the tougher schedule, which is the Chargers. You take the team, and QB, who have more experience in the playoffs, that’s the Chargers… so I think I HAVE to lean to the Chargers on this one. BUT it just seems like it’s been the Patriots year. I will be taking the over though.
Once more, I’ll probably be looking at QB rushing yards on both of them here. 28.5 for Herbert and 24.5 for Maye. It might be worth a look at both scoring as well, although 3/1 for Maye to find the endzone is horrible. There’s not many at a price I’d take in terms of anytime scorers.
Texans -3 @ Steelers: 38
All these games I think the totals are too high, then comes Monday night. This is down from 39.5 earlier in the week and I think it will probably continue to head that way. Well done to the Steelers for making another playoff game, can they actually win one?! I doubt it.
Not a massive preview on this one, defenses should be on top. The Texans boast the best defense in the league, I think it’s better than the Broncos anyway, and they should be able to get sustained pressure on Aaron Rodgers and that should be the key to the game.
CJ Stroud has been fine, he’s definitely improved in the second half of the season as the Texans have now won 8 in a row, coming into the playoffs as THE form team. The run game has been fine with Woody Marks now taking the RB1 role ahead of Nick Chubb. The passing game is mainly Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz, but Jayden Higgins has mixed in well in the second half of the season as well. Xavier Huutchinson will get a handful of targets and Christian Kirk rounds out the roster there.
The Steelers have done what they do, won enough to make the post-season, although none of their wins have been particularly impressive. 7 of their 10 wins have been by one-score, and I’d imagine they’ll at least keep this one close as well.
Aaron Rodgers finished the year 23rd in QBR, and that’s probably about right based on the eye-test, he’s not a game-changer any more but does enough to get them some wins. Kenneth Gainwell is probably the jenga piece for them on offense, he shares carries with Jaylen Warren but is a very effective pass catcher as well, I’ll be looking to target both RBs receiving lines as they dump off the ball to lessen the pressure on Rodgers.
DK Metcalf returns from suspension to add a big body to the passing game, he’s not had a big year though. Darnell Washington is done for the year so it will be on Friermuth and Jonnu Smith at TE, a position Rodgers likes to target. Calvin Austin probably the bigger threat with his speed and MVS could be a deep shot too, although neither should worry many teams.
The Steelers are defense first as well, and Joey Porter vs. Nico Collins will be a fun matchup to watch.
Under on the total. Kenneth Gainwell… yuck, his rec line is 5.5 that’s a tough one to take the over, o30.5 is preferable on that aspect I think, although o10.5 rec. yards for Warren is a better line in my eyes. If Jaylin Noel catches one it will be for o6.5, so he maybe worth a nibble. Texans win.
That’s that for wildcard weekend. I’ve had one small go on Jags and 49ers to make the Super Bowl at 90/1, high odds due to the Eagles and Bills being their opening opponents, but in a crazy year that’s been tough to predict I’ll shoot for the stars.
TouchdownTips 
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