It’s been a weird season on the field, and a weird postseason for me and this website. Last week I was re-vamping the wife’s website; happy wife, happy life and all that, and I’m kinda glad I was as my prediction went 1-3 in terms of spreads with the Bears +3.5 the only one I got correct, so I’m pretty much dead in my playoff picks contest after that shocker, and it didn’t get much better with props, so at least it was only me who lost money on it and no-one had a chance of following me in.
I have said that I find the Broncos and Seahawks tough to judge this year and that has continued at the sharp end of the season. The Seahawks absolutely dominated the 49ers as they did in the regular season so I shouldn’t have been surprised to see such a one-sided result in that game. I might have to concede that they’re really rather good. That set-up this match against the Rams who went to OT with the Bears after intercepting Caleb Williams and kicking the winning field goal, a tough game for them, but they came through it and get another trip to the tundra with a chance of making the Super Bowl.
On the AFC side of things there was a similar script, one game fairly dominant to the victor and one game going to overtime. The Broncos made it through against the Bills with a couple of favourable flags moving them down the field before an innocuous play changed what this week could be as Bo Nix somehow broke an ankle when moving the ball sideways for the winning field goal. The Patriots defense got it done against a shell-shocked CJ Stroud who looked terrified on every single snap and couldn’t stop giving the ball away. Drake Maye did enough to get the job done for the Pats.
Patriots -3.5 @ Broncos: 43 (8pm)
The betting line has been all over the place on this one, opened at 4.5, went up to 5.5 and now down to just 3.5 as we near kick off. The total has ticked up a touch as well, opening at 41.5 at the start of the week.
The big story for this game was the Nix injury that Sean Peyton annouced just after the game. That moved the line from Broncos -1.5 to where we are now with Jarrett Stidham
With the weather bomb that’s blanketing a lot of the US right now, checking that is the sensible first look on the game, but it seems this is going to be largely typical January weather in Colorado, 18f, so in minus Celsius and a chance of snow through the game. It doesn’t seem too windy so it sounds like it’s good AFC title game weather.
Patriots
Drake Maye could be taking the MVP crown home before the Super Bowl, and he has been very good this year, but I’m a little worried with him against this Broncos defense. His numbers didn’t need to be good last week as the Texans fell apart, but I felt they got a little lucky with fumbles and interceptions from Maye, which could have cost them had their defense not been immense for the game. That’s the negative from me on Maye… but the positive is his deep ball throwing, the pass to Boutte on the right-hand side of the endzone was perfection and is something they’ve done all season. I will say that the weather was terrible last week as well, which didn’t help things.
Rhamondre Stevenson (50.5) faced a challenge this year with TreVeyon Henderson (35.5) being drafted at RB for them and with injuries in the middle of the year it looked like he’d lost his role but he finished the season strong and was the leading back for them last week with 70 from 16 carries, compared to the inefficient 12 from 25 for the rookie. Stevenson too got more in the passing game with 4 receptions, (2.5) tonight. I think we’ve got to assume that’s how they want to play it and expect similar tonight in terms of percentages at least. I did say last week that I thought Drake Maye would have had a good game on the ground but the weather put pay to that. Will he top his 29.5 line tonight?
The good thing about the Patriots is that they move the ball around well, so if Stefon Diggs gets Pat Surtain then they shouldn’t be too fussed with Boutte, Douglas, Hollins and Kyle Williams all popping up with big plays throughout the season and Hunter Henry showing up as one of the better TE’s in the league. They trust each of those smaller part players and will use them if they’re free enough. Diggs is technically the WR1 and had some important catches last week to seal the game but if he doesn’t get too much of the action then they won’t be too bothered.
The Pats defense was incredible last week against an admittedly poor Texans offensive line, but they got home constantly and forced mistakes throughout the game. Carlton Davis had a couple of interceptions and it looks like he’ll be fine to go after being in concussion protocol last weekend and Christian Gonzalez will be playing as their version of Pat Surtain.
Broncos
So we get to the biggest part of this game, it’s a Jarrett Stidham REVENGE game as he makes his first start of the season facing the side who drafted him in 2019. They have been positive on him coming into the side, as you’d expect, but the numbers don’t exactly fill anyone with confidence. 8 TDs, 8 INTs in his career and the only action he’s seen this season was a kneeldown. I do feel though that if they can limit turnovers from Stidham then they’ve still got a chance of making the final to lose to either of the NFC teams.
RJ Harvey is their main running back since JK Dobbins went down, but I don’t feel he’s been as good as they would have hoped when they drafted him this year. Just 6 for 20 yards in their win last week, and he finished the season fairly ineffectively as well. He is a good pass-catcher though and that’s probably where I’ll be looking. His rushing line is just 39.5, his rec line at 22.5 and o/u 3.5 receptions. Jaleel McLaughlin is the RB2 there and he’ll likely get some work with a QB who’s barely seen the field this year, he had 4 for 21 last week, his line this week though is 25.5, maybe a little high for me.
Much like the Patriots the Broncos do have a WR1 but they move the ball around well aside from him. So if Courtland Sutton gets Gonzalez on him for most of the game then they’ll use one of their other guys. Last weekend Sutton didn’t get a catch until the 4th quarter and they then used him to control things as they went into OT. It was a Marvin Mims game as he finished with 8 for 93 and the TD which sent them into the extra period, the problem with them though is that there’s half a chance he does nothing this weekend so it’s a tough one to call.
Sutton is lined at 48.5 with Mims at 29.5. They do like Pat Bryant and Lil Jordan Humphrey has popped up with the odd good game as well this season, 33.5 and 7.5 for those guys respectively. My usual go-to with QBs who don’t play much is either one of the lower ranked WRs who usually play with the QB in training or the TE. So I’m leaning to Humphrey having a good game. Evan Engram is the TE1 for the Broncos but we might see a bit of Adam Trautman here as well. 19.5 and 4.5 for those two. Basically… like with the Pats pass-catchers, it’s complicated.
The Broncos defense has been one of the best in the league this year and they’ll have to do it once more to get the job done here. Pat Surtain is arguably the best corner in the league, Riley Moss will do all he can legally or not to stop opponents, usually by just grabbing them and the pass-rush is electric with pressure coming from every. Zach Allen and Nik Bonitto the two most likely to get a sack in my eyes.
The Verdict?
My thoughts all week have been to take the Patriots against a backup QB, and I think I’ve still got to lean that way. I just can’t take Jarrett Stidham winning the AFC Championship game. IF the Broncos manage to limit themselves to probably under 2 turnovers though then their defense could get this done. It’s going to be an interesting one.
I’ll have to say Patriots -3.5 and Under 43.
Props-wise. I think I’m going to take Lil’Jordan Humphrey – o7.5 on Bet365, his line is 10.5 on Paddypower so the edge is there. RJ Harvey o3.5 recptions at 11/10, Stevenson o2.5 receptions at 8/11.
TD scorers. I think Hunter Henry is good value at 2/1 for a shorter odds shot at 365/Skybet and PP – There’s a 14/1 on Humphrey at Betfred, 11’s at 365. I don’t mind that for a longer shot, he shouldn’t be higher priced than Trautman.
Rams +2.5 @ Seahawks: 45.5
The line on this has stayed constant at 2.5 for most of the week, while the total is down a little from the opening 47.5; It looks like just above freezing for most of the game, a slight chance of rain, no real wind, so I think we can say that weather shouldn’t be a factor in this one either.
Obviously in the same division these two teams played each other twice this year with a 21-19 Rams win in LA and a 38-37 OT win for Seattle at home in a brilliant TNF game about a month ago.
The Rams had a good middle to the year but dropped off a little towards the end of the season on both sides of the ball, but a nice win over the Panthers and the OT win in the cold last weekend against the Bears has them in this game. Matthew Stafford came into the season with a back injury but that doesn’t seem to have affected him too much this season as he should be taking home the MVP title over Drake Maye. He threw the ball a lot last week but didn’t record a TD, but his experience is a big boost for the Rams.
They’ve got a good 1-2 punch with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum both doing well on the ground, with Williams retaining the 1 spot there. He scored last weekend and will get the majority of the carries but the Rams later in the season were sharing drives between the two teams. Corum is generally the higher price for a TD so he’s where I tend to look in the betting. 54.5 and 29.5 the lines for those two players.
The passing game is mostly Puka Nacua who like JSN on the other side, teams seem unable to slow down. He had 5 from 10 targets last week although most of that came early on in the game. I’d imagine he’ll get double-digit targets in this one as well. The TE’s have been increasingly used with Colby Parkinson leading them in yards last week. I was actually on Tyler Higbee who only had 1 reception but went over his line last weekend and Terrance Ferguson will probably get a look-in as well at the TE spot. Parkinson 25.5, Higbee 13.5, Puka at 91.5 and the man I’ve not mentioned yet, Davante Adams is at 49.5. I’ve not mentioned him as he’s a tough one to get right. He’s very much the redzone guy so my lean is to go under on his receiving line but probably look at him to get a score, even then, his month off means that they moved more towards the TEs, even in the redzone so it’s a tough one.
The Rams defense is a good unit and it’s well coached and the key to stopping Darnold and the ‘Hawks offense is getting pressure, that’s something they are good at with Verse and Young up front. Byron Young at 17/10 seems a great price for a sack.
Seahawks
Is Sam Darnold good? I don’t know. He was playing injured last week so after getting so far ahead in the first quarter of the game they didn’t give him much to do, just the 12 completions for 124 yards and an early TD on a scramble to JSN. I think I’m going to stick with my opinion all year and say “he’s fine”. Like Stafford he’ll give one of his players 10-15 targets and that guy seems constantly open, so it’s a fair tactic, and he’ll move the ball around the others well enough, but he does struggle with pressure so it will be interesting to see how this goes.
They lost Zach Charbonnet for the season last week but due to their dominance and the fact they’ve got a running back who they’ve been keeping to a smaller workload all season, they got the job done pretty easily against the 49ers last week. Kenneth Walker is in for a big deal this summer, he finished last week with 116 yards and 3 TDs as the main back. It was nice for him to get the game he’s been denied for most of the year as they constantly took him out in the redzone. Behind him tonight is probably going to be George Holani, or maybe it’s the return of Cam Akers? Another REVENGE game.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the only thing you can guarantee in the Seattle passing game, he’ll probably get double-digit targets as despite the Seahawks defense I doubt they’ll have the run of the game like they did last weekend. He may well get the OPOY award for the season with 1793 regular season recieving yards, he and Puka were nearly 400 ahead of 3rd place in the category and there’s little doubt they’ll try and continue that here. Behind him Cooper Kupp has plodded along (another REVENGE game) and Rashid Shaheed has done a bit since coming in, but he’s there largely for his kick returns. AJ Barner has been a useful redzone threat for them and he has 14 receptions against the Rams this season, with a TD in the Seattle home game. Rec lines – JSN – 89.5, Kupp 28.5, Shaheed 22.5, Barner 27.5, Walker 22.5 although if I’m looking at Walker I’m looking at over 3.5 receptions for him.
The Seahawks defense has been immense and coming off the bye last week was full of energy. It’s safe to say they’ll be fresh enough for this one and they’re the reason the team has come this far. The elder statesman got the two sacks they notched last week in Demarcus Lawrence and Leonard Williams, but they’ve got a few capable of getting home.
The Verdict?
Should be a really fun game. The Rams are the one team I have called from quite a way out so I’m hoping they make it through. A Rams v Patriots Super Bowl would probably be a lot higher scoring than a Broncos v Seahawks game would.
I don’t know who will win this one although it is hard to look past the Seahawks giving up under a field goal on the spread, and I’ll take the OVER on the total. If I was being forced to choose I’d go Seahawks -2.5.
As for props – Walker o3.5 receptions, Byron Young to record a sack, Higbee o13.5 rec. yards. I’d be looking at Seahawks -0.5 1st Quarter as well, they’ve started quick in most game this season.
I guess a shorter odds TD scorer I’d go for is Blake Corum at 16/5 on PaddyPower, if I was taking a longshot, Cam Akers is available at 28/1 on Betfred, 17/1 at PaddyPower, although there’s a fair chance he doesn’t see the field.
Super Bowl
There are lines up on 365 for the finalé;
- Rams -8.5 v Broncos: 44.5
- Rams -3.5 v Patriots: 50.5
- Seahawks -8.5 v Broncos: 39.5
- Seahawks -3.5 v Patriots: 45.5
So either way the NFC are either 8.5 or 3.5 point favourites and there’s a fairly wide range of totals there!
I get the feeling the spreads would rise on any of the combinations to be honest, and really I think the NFC team would cover in all instances. It has been a poor year for the AFC. The NFC has the benefit of knowing the surroundings as well as they play in San Francisco every year.
TouchdownTips 
Leave a comment