It’s here, the finalé of the 2025/26 NFL season. After 271 games between 32 teams we’ve reached the showpiece taking place this year in Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, home of the 49ers, so that’s an advantage for the NFC West team in this game already as they have to visit this area every single season.
The Seahawks earned the 1 seed in the NFC with a 14-3 record and have done what they should with it, dispatching the 49ers with ease before holding on against the Rams in the Championship game a few weeks ago. I’m not sure it’s happened before that a team has beaten two teams from their own conference on the way to the Bowl, but here we are with Seattle achieving that feat. It actually meant 3 games in a row against a division rival after they beat the 49ers in week 18 to secure the 1 seed and home-field throughout the post-season.
If the Seahawks manage to lift the Lombardi, they’ll become only the third team in history to win at the home of a divisional rival, the Broncos won at the home of the Chargers in 1998 and the Chiefs won at the Allegiant (home of the Raiders) a few years ago. It would be the second Super Bowl win for the Seahawks who last made it to this game in 2015 when, ironically, the Patriots denied them the chance of back-to-back wins with a rather famous interception at the goal line essentially sealing the game.
There’s a British spin on this game from the Seattle sideline when Aden Durde will be defensive co-ordinator for the Seahawks and such is the dominance of that area of the game for Seattle he could be in line for a head coaching job once this run to the San Francisco is completed.
For the Patriots, it’s a return to the big game for the first time since Tom Brady left in 2019. Wow, the pain those fans have had to suffer, a whole 7 years without going to the Super Bowl… however did they cope?! A win in Santa Clara would leave the Patriots out ahead of the Steelers as the winningest (horrible word) team in NFL history with 7 Lombardi trophies.
The Patriots finished the season with the same 14-3 record as their opponents here but had to take a slightly longer route after missing out on the 1 seed to the Broncos. They took care of the hapless Chargers and the woeful Texans in horrible weather before overcoming the Jarrett Stidham Broncos in Denver a couple of weeks ago. If they win this week Mike Vrabel will become the first player to win the trophy as a player and a head coach.
Off the field this year Donald Trump claims “it’s just too far” for him to possibly travel to the game. I’m sure it’s nothing to do with Green Day opening things with a pre-game show and the most streamed artist in the world, Spanish-singing Bad Bunny playing at half-time. Two artists who Trump has been just a touch critical of as they’ve been fairly vocal between them on Trump himself.
I’m not sure why the NFL have decided this route to take shots at the paper-thin orange manbaby, but it’s worked with the leader-in-chief knowing the reception he’s likely to get and staying away. Bad Bunny himself took some shots at ICE when receiving his best Album Grammy at this years awards and there are rumours of ICE turning up at the game. That wouldn’t shock me at all, but hopefully all goes well for the showpiece.
It does, however, mean that my usual half-time game betting will be tougher this year as I have absolutely no idea of any Bad Bunny songs and no interest in watching the show. It will be a wait-and-see brief for me, waiting for the inevitable set-list leak.
Having a quick look around the total viewership for the half-time show line is set to 135.5m on PaddyPower, which would be a new record, beating Kendrick Lamar, who pulled in 133.5m a couple of years ago. My first instinct was that with the Latino viewership from North and South America, the over makes sense, but will the lack of MAGA’s watching it hit that total number? Obviously, they’ll all be tuning into the TurningPointUS half-time show filled with white country stars (probably, as despite it being 6 days away, they’ve not announced any performers, almost like it’s some huge grift).
My usual go-to is the length of the National Anthem, this year performed by Charlie Puth… yes, the same Charlie Puth who did a tribute song to Paul Walker with Wiz Khalifa. Apparently, he’ll be the first Jewish performer to do the anthem. Good for him. According to Google AI (yeah, really reliable), they’re expecting a whopping 2min 16secs performance of the anthem, way, way over the 119.5 available on books. It does seem like he’s said about adding some jazz elements, so I guess over is the look at the moment. As always, keep an eye on X towards the game as there will be a leak at some point. It looks like the leaks are suggesting under on the 119.5 as you can get 5/4 on o117.5 seconds now on PP.
Seahawks -4.5 vs Patriots: 45.5
The Seahawks are officially the road team this year, as that alternates year-on-year, meaning they’ll be in the dressing room they’re used to in Levi’s Stadium, and they get to call the toss. They opened as 3.5 faves, so that’s ticked up a point while the total has gone down a touch from the opening 46.5.
Both teams were 60/1 at the start of the season to hoist the trophy with the Pats hitting 120/1 after week 3 after lossses to the Raiders and Steelers (credit to ESPN). The Underdogs have covered the last 5 Super Bowls and have won the last 3. A cracking stat from ESPN again, “Teams to win the Super Bowl are 50-7-2 ATS. The only time in the past 15 Super Bowls that a team won the game but did not cover the spread was in Super Bowl LVI when the Rams beat the Bengals by three points and did not cover the 4.5-point spread” – Just goes to show how well the bookies do on juding the game.
I will start by saying that I think the Seahawks win and cover this game. I think they do it fairly easily as well. Their 3 losses this season came by a COMBINED 11 points. They have the best defense in the game and know how to get it done on offense. Admittedly, the 18 points in the Patriots defeats isn’t to be sniffed at, but here we are.
Quarterback
Sam Darnold becomes the first quarterback from the 2018 class to reach the final, something you wouldn’t have thought after his first couple of seasons in the league playing for the Jets where he was famously “seeing ghosts” after playing the Patriots. It’s been a hell of a redemption arc for him from 13 wins at the Vikings last season to 14 wins this year and his first Super Bowl appearance. Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson eat your hearts out, I guess Josh Rosen too? Poor guy.
Darnold finished the season 5th in yards, 9th in TDs passes and a mediocre 19th in QBR. That’s probably about where I rank him in all honesty. He is very good passing on the run, but this run hasn’t been on his brilliance. He does what is required of him and he’s done it well for the last couple of years. It does feel like I’m hugely detracting from him, but this is a defense-led team and with only really Jaxson Smith-Njigba to throw to it’s never going to provide big numbers for him.
Drake Maye has more impressive numbers and is rightly going to finish 2nd in the regular-season MVP betting. He ranks 1st in QBR, 4th in yards and 3rd in TD passes this season as well as running for nearly 600 yards, including a season-high 66 in their win over the Broncos a couple of weeks ago and the naked bootleg to seal the game. His deep-ball throwing in particular has been the highlight of his tape this season with it proving effective throughout the year with a less-than-stellar pass-catching corps.
It has been a meteoric rise under Vrabel for the sophomore stud after a 15:10 TD:INT ratio in his debut season last year where the Patriots won just 4 games. The playoffs though haven’t shown him in the best light in my eyes. I think he’s looked dodgy under pressure, admittedly against some of the best defense in the AFC, but things don’t get any easier coming into this game.
Who comes out on top in this area? I’ve got to go for Maye despite my pessimism on him dealing with pressure. Darnold isn’t exactly good in that area either and with the defenses on both teams here some of the better in the league it will be who deals with things better in the biggest monent of their careers.
Running Back
The Seahawks used a nice 1-2 punch for the regular season but lost Zach Charbonnet to an ACL injury in their win over the 49ers so have ridden Kenneth Walker throughout their 2-game playoff run. That hasn’t been a bad thing as he racked up a hat-trick against the 49ers and ran one in against the Rams last time out. The ability to spell him through the season was frustrating to those of us who had him in fantasy football but has allowed him to be fresher when hitting the crunch part of the season and he’s loved it as the sole back here.
He toppped 1,000 yards in the regular season but only had 5 TD’s as Charbonnet was constantly brought in when they made the 10-zone. Walker has shown in the post-season that he can do it from close in with his 4 TDs and 19 carries in each game. There’s not a whole lot behind him with George Holani getting just 3 carries for 4 yards in their win last weekend. I think it’s safe to say it will be all Kenny Walks.
The Patriots have had a good 1-2 punch for most of the season as well with rookie TreVeyon Henderson having a fair first year in the league, especially with Rhamondre Stevenson went down, but during the playoff run they’ve gone almost entirely towards the veteran running back with Rhamo in the main room, leading carries 25:3 in their win in Denver last weekend. 16:12 v Texans and 10:9 vs the Chargers.
Stevenson finished the year with 7 TDs, although 4 of those came in the final three games of the season and he’s not found the endzone in the playoffs. Henderson on the other hand, the lightning to the thunder, had 10 in the regular season, although they came in bunches with those coming over just 5 games.
Best RB area? Kenny Walker has shown he can do it by himself, the Pats have the change of pace back helping them out as well. It’s a tough one. Walker is better than Steveo. I think Henderson may get a bit of work tonight as I expect the Pats to be trailing.
Pass-catchers.
This is a fairly evenly matched area as well. The Seahawks do have the new offensive player of the year after Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) won that award in the week, but behind them it’s not been a very productive season. He finished the season as the leading receiver in the league with 1793 yards at 15 yards a catch (good for 10th in the league) and 10 TDs, a remarkable season after playing mainly in the slot last season. He definitely proved the Seahawks right for allowing Lockett and Metcalf to leave, a move which I personally thought was a bit silly at the time, shows what I know!
He added another 153 last time out and has scored in both of their post-season wins this year, again, pretty damn impressive for someone that every defense knows the ball is going to. That performance had Tom Brady explaining to us layman viewers that the squareness of his shoulders when running was a big factor in his success as defenders aren’t able to tell which direction he’s going until it’s too late.
Cooper Kupp has flashed a little bit, but he’s not at the level he was a year or two ago, although 5 and 4 catches in the playoffs served up some of his better numbers for the season. The arrival of Rashid Shaheed from the Saints gave them an electric kick returner and he’s their deep shot guy to provide them some chunk plays when required. The elusive Jake Bobo made just his 2nd catch of the season to score a TD against the Rams last time out, but, unsurprisingly I can’t call him reliable on a week-to-week basis.
AJ Barner had a big start to the year with 4 TDs in their first 5 games before slowing down and finishing the year with 6 on the year and 519 yards. He did have a 10-catch game this season as well so he has shown he can deal with a higher workload if the need requires.
The Patriots similarly have Stefon Diggs as their WR1, who, when he’s not spreading his seed throughout the north-east has been a nice pickup for the Pats who needed an experienced presence around their young WR-corps. He just about topped 1000 yards in ther regular season and has been increasingly involved in the playoffs without putting up the numbers, he’s the trusted guy in the short-mid range and allows them to move the ball.
The rest of the group are harder to predict, they are all capable of big plays down the field and Maye was one of the best in the season at those balls. The tough thing is trying to figure who out of Mack Hollins, Demario Douglas and Keyshon Boutte will get the targets. I can’t tell you that, and it’s to the benefit of the Patriots that they are built that way, all have had good games over the course of the season and the playoffs.
They do like to use the TE’s though, Hunter Henry having one of the better seasons at that position. 768 yards and 7 TDs for him this year as he continues a tidy career. Austin Hooper pops up with the odd catch as well.
Will Gonzalez travel with JSN? That may well be the decider here. The players behind him are capable but haven’t shown a whole lot to make me think they’ll be able to move the ball well if he’s shut down. As a group? I’ve probably got to lean to the Pats here as well.
Defenses
This is where the game will be won and lost tonight though, two of the better defenses in the league facing off against each other looking to bring home the trophy.
The Seahawks defense allowed the fewest points per game in the regular season and if you leave out the games against the Rams, every team has a nemesis, it was one of the best seasons on record on that side of the ball. They were top 10 in yards allowed vs the pass and top 3 against the run as they locked down opponents for much of the year. Top 5 in red zone defense, top on 3rd down defense, top 5 in interceptions with 18, and second in passes defended. All over they’re a very, very good unit.
I won’t claim to be an officianado of that side of the ball, but I know people think Emmanwori is one of the best at his position in the league and while the Legion of boom went away a couple of years ago, the new “Dark Side” has been excellent to watch this year.
The Patriots’ defense has been a revelation this year as well, falling within a couple of spots behind the Seahawks in most metrics, and during the post-season allowed the second-fewest points ever across 3 play-off games with just 26 conceded to the Chargers, Texans and Broncos. NOW I am aware there’s a huge asterisk over that number, (Chargers with no OL, Texans with no OL in a blizzard, and Jarrett Stidahm in a blizzed) but it’s on paper as one of the best in history. They consistently got pressure on opposing QBs and caused mayhem throughout the games.
Christian Gonzalez is one of the better cornerbacks in the league allowed below 40 passer rating when targetted, but he generally doesn’t trail one player, it will be interesting to see how they work him tonight as if they can slow JSN then they’re in a good spot to get the win tonight.
Personally I think both defenses will be on top for a lot of the game, there will be interceptions on both sides of the ball and offenses will have short fields to work with for a lot of it. I’m struggling to think of overs on many of the offensive players in this one.
Best defense? Has to be the Seahawks, but I think both will be good.
Overall?
Well done on the Patriots for making it to the Super Bowl, it’s been a rough couple of years without having the chance to win a Lombardi and I feel for the fans who have had to endure literally days of heartbreak as they struggle to make it back here, BUT I have to pay attention to the easiest strength of schedule in the league, to the opponents they’ve beaten in the playoffs and what I’ve seen of Drake Maye in the post-season. I am also happy to be proved wrong here as Maye is a likeable guy and I wouldn’t be too shocked to see him have a big game.
I am taking the Seahawks by 10 points or so. Something like 24-14. The Pats have played good defenses throughout, in bad weather, but I’ve been a little worried with Maye in those games. Darnold has been very impressive in the post-season.
Bets.
Well, I’m too late for any of the novelty prop bets, and I’m not fussed at all by a half-time show I won’t understand. It will be on in the background while I’m drinking and eating, but it’s not one I’ll be betting on, for probably the first time ever. I haven’tn even managed to get on the anthem this year as the bookies seemed to have removed it before the weekend… scratch that, it’s now back up at 117.5 from 119.5 earlier in the week. I’ll be checking for leaks on that fella.
There’s some that used to be regular every year but they’ve fallen off over the last couple of seasons. I don’t like the Touchback bet now. Coin toss I’ve got nothing on this year, Gatorade colour? The Seahawks apparently like Orange, which WAS the favourite. MVP will likely be Darnold if I think they’ll be winning the game, although a shot on one of their defensive players might be worth a look. It looks like Lime/Yellow/Green has come in to be the favourite colour now, I assume as people think that’s what the Seahawks will have.
I’ve got to take the Skybet boost of “Both teams to score a TD in the 1st half” at 5/4 from 1/2 – The Seahawks tend to start quickly, and while I do think defenses will be on top I can’t ignore that, even with a £10 maximum.
Both teams to record an interception is 2/1 on Skybet repeat request-a-bets – I do think this happens.
There’s still 11/2 available on TreVeyon Henderson anytime, I do think that’s over-priced – at Ladbrokes/Coral
It’s also 11/2 for Seahawks defensive TD (Coral/Lads/Skybet/PP), and there’s a 9/1 for the Patriots to get a defensive TD (Coral/Ladbrokes) – If I think both get an interception, I think there’s a better than normal chance for one of them to score a TD. Seahawks does seem the more likely to me.
Rashid Shaheed is 15/4 anytime on Bet365, he’s on kick returns so that adds more chances to find the endzone as he did to open the game against the 49ers.
There’s 3/1 available on Drake Maye rushing one in, they use him a lot in the redzone, as shown by the 0 TDs scored by running backs this post-season. I’ll probably have a bet with him scoring and going over his 35.5 line. Drake Maye o35.5 rushing yards
Paddypower has 50% boost on a betbuilder for this game… I’ll take this at the odds.
That’s it for me for the season.
I’ll admit it’s been a weird one, and not a very good one for me either from personal bets, or on here. I’ve had a strange time with motivation in keeping this going as I’ve just not really enjoyed the season as a whole. This definitely isnt’ the Super Bowl I thought we’d get to finish the year and it’s two teams I’ve not really been able to judge for the whole season, so I wouldn’t be shocked if this enitre post is proven wrong.
Fingers crossed we get a good game, I have definitely got more hyped for it coming into this Sunday and feel it should be quite an entertaining one. Good luck with whatever you’re on tonight.
TouchdownTips 
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