MNF – Colts at Jets – @touchdowntips

Another good night for us last night, finishing on a 14 point profit, 5/10 winners, priced at 10/11, 2/1, 7/2, 3/1 and the Latavius Murray NAP at 11/8. At the moment, anything over evens on him is a pretty much sure-fire go! We’re up 107pts on the year so far, and have at least 3 season long bets that are looking very tasty at the moment as well. Ezekiel Elliott for Offensive rookie of the year 5pts on him at 6/4, he’s only got his team mate Dak Prescott as a challenger. David Johnson top TD scorer 7pts ew on him at 11/1 is looking like it will at least be a place winner, he’s now 2 ahead with 15. Unfortunately our AJ Green top receiver bet looks dead in the water with him having a few weeks out injured, he won’t be catching Julio now. Drew Brees is sitting 100 yards ahead at the top of the charts for passing yards, we had 5pts on him at 6/1 – That’s potentially 130odd points of profit from the season long bets if they keep on track as they are at the moment!

Oh, a quick mention, apparently Bet365 settled Tyler Lockett as a loss, he definitely got in for the TD, I can only think it’s because it went down as a rushing TD when they were expecting a Rec. TD, I don’t know, either way, chase them up on livechat or twitter and make sure they sort it. I’d imagine they will eventually fix it anyway, but I’ve been told it’s not the first week they’ve done something like this.

Monday off work means only one thing for me, listen to the Around the NFL podcast, and get into this write up and see what we can do to keep up the decent streak we’re on recently – Pre-warning, there’s more stats in this write-up than usual as I’ve got more time to look around, I’m not sure they actually help or whether they just muddy the waters a bit, but we’ll see! I usually trust my instincts and what I hear.

Monday night football is not exactly a cracker, but an important one for the Colts if they want to make the post season, with the Texans losing yesterday and going back to .500 the Colts are now just one win behind. They have the best Quarterback in that division by quite a way, someone I admittedly didn’t rate as highly as everyone else seems to do, but playing behind the stinking pile of trash that is their offensive line and getting hit more than anyone really should he puts up some impressive figures week in, week out. He took the week off at Thanksgiving through a concussion, and the Colts only scored 7 points at home without him, he’ll be rested, the bruises from the near constant sacks/hits will have healed for once and he’ll be back looking to take advantage of a poor Jets secondary, they’re joint 10th worst in yards per game given up to passing, but 2nd best in rushing yards. So it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that the Colts strength matches to the Jets weakness… This should be a big game for Hilton and Moncrief, maybe even Dwayne Allen since he seems to be back in the good books for Indy. Hilton has been questionable all week with a back injury, but is expected to play tonight, I still however prefer Moncrief as more of a TD scoring threat, he’s scored in 5 of the 6 games he’s played so far this year, TY is also on 5 but from 11 games. Dwayne Allen will get a few catches, and even Jack Doyle should get at least one as the second tight end. Frank Gore is in for a tough match, he’s generally guaranteed 50-60 odd yards on the ground and 20 odd through the air. He doesn’t do much exciting, but trudges on week on week and thanks mainly to the fact they have literally nothing else there to take touches from him, so he’ll carry on plodding along. Paddy and WillHill have his rushing yards set to 65.5 for the night, I would imagine he will be under that, but i’ll probably be giving it a miss at that line, there’s a couple of other lines that look more enticing to me. Luck over 263.5 yards at 5/6 on Paddypower to me seems more likely than the Gore yards, as said above, they’ll pass a lot on a tough run defence, and with their poor defence, it SHOULD be an end to end game depending which Fitz turns up for the Jets, so they’ll probably have to keep the scoreboard ticking.

And that’s what is known as a segway… the Jets are starting Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB again tonight, their season is over, but they seem to think he is their best chance to get a few wins, in all honesty, since he threw 9 picks in 2 weeks, he’s not been completely awful, 3 INTs and 6 TDs in 6 games. He is capable of putting up some decent numbers, and with Brandon Marshall, Quincy Enunwa, Matt Forte and Bilal Powell, he’s good a few good players to look for. As a Marshall owner, I can tell you now he’s been really disappointing this year, and I can’t trust him for anything, he’s the big name here so his odds are always shorter than they should be, he’s scored 3 TDs all season, but is still the second shortest odds for the Jets, and his yards are set to as high as 71.5 in some places, I doubt he’ll get to that. Enunwa has been playing better than Marshall for most of this season and was the man last week vs the Pats, 109 yards and a touchdown for him, however 4 TDs on the season doesn’t inspire confidence, he’s been targeted pretty solidly, 4 being his lowest on the season. The guys in the backfield for the Jets revolves around Forte and Powell, they’ve been about even in snaps in recent weeks with Powell mixing in more and more, he was the guy I was looking at for a yardage bet on the Jets side, he’s got himself 79, 51, 89 and 43 combined yards in the last 4 games, he’s set at 50.5 on Ladbrokes tonight. That looks like a low enough mark to go on against a poor Colts defence. Matt Forte is the better runner though, and unsurprisingly has better rushing yards, going over 80 rush yards in 4 of his last 5 games. Robby Anderson probably deserves a quick mention as the third WR option, he’s had a couple of receptions in recent games, usually for quite big yardage, 6 targets in 3 of the last 4 as well, he’s 5/1 anytime at Coral if you wanted a dart throw.

So… yeah, this could, and I think should be a high scoring shootout, but it all depends on who turns up for the Jets, they’ve been within a score in each of the last 5 weeks, so they can keep up with their opposition. I would usually put up a two or three player to score selection for some big odds shots, and there should be quite a few TDs, but god knows who will get them, so i’ll save my pennies on that this week. Doing my due diligence, I even checked the weather predicted for tonight after the snow/sleet ruined a few games… I’m happy to report it’ll be clear and dry, a little above freezing.

As usual, stick to 2pts per selection –

  • Moncrief anytime – 6/4 (WillHill)
  • Moncrief first TD scorer – 10/1 (365/PP)
  • Luck o263.5 passing yards -5/6 (PP)
  • Bilal Powell o50.5 combined yards – 17/20 (Ladbrokes) thats the official too.. but o49.5 is available at 10/13 on 365 if you want

8pts total, means that even if they all lose, we’ll finish the week on near enough 100 pts profit for the season to date.

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