So the regular season draws to a close, leaving just the 12 teams, and set of supporters with something to look forward to, for a week at least. Even the Texans supporters have a glimmer of hope facing a beaten up Raiders team who couldn’t get anything going this weekend.
My team. The Bengals… Well, they struggled, I thought they’d overcome the loss of 2 of their main guys in the passing game, and in fairness, they may have done had it not been for the Eifert injury in pre-season, then the follow up injury meaning he missed half the season in the end. That was too much for the team to overcome, losing Gio and AJ in the same game was the final nail in an already pretty well sealed coffin. At the moment, they will be drafting at no.9, which isn’t a bad thing, and have to draft some good O Line guys, they really struggled in protection, and creating holes for Jeremy Hill to run through, although they could be due to Hill not actually being very good. I’d like to see Burkhead and Bernard as the 2 feature guys and Hill the goal line back next year tbh, but I doubt that will happen. Tyler Boyd has looked good enough, LaFell even looked good, and earnt himself a far bonus in the final game, to support AJ Green. Hell, even Cody Core looked good enough. I’d also like to see Alex Erikson get the ball the way Tyreek Hill does for KC, but that would involve inventive coaching, and Lewis just doesn’t do that. Some clock management would be nice too, but you can’t have everything.
Aaaaaaanyway, Lets look back at the bets we suggested at the start of the year, and figure out if the big winner covered all the rest of them…Well, lets start with the 2 that I know we tipped, and I know won… Drew Brees top passing yards – 6/1 (5pts) – In the end, a fairly comfortable win for Brees, finishing, nearly 300 yards (264) ahead of second place, possible MVP Matt Ryan. We did also tip Blake Bortles ew for 4pts total, lets not talk about his season – profit on top passer – 26 points.
Now, offensive rookie of the year has yet to be official announced, but surely it can only be the guy that we tipped as (admittedly the overwhelming) favourite?! Zeke nearly set rookie rushing records, and is 75% of the reason that the Cowboys are where they are, despite him looking like a homosexual convict from the longest yard in most post-match interviews, we had just the 5pts on him at a meagre 6/4 which, after the losses of Tunsil and Corey Coleman SHOULD give us a profit of – 3.5 points on this market.
Now for my favourite, and the most profitable thing I’ve done all year, the top TD scorer, we went pretty brave on this, and despite the Cardinals being pretty damn poor all year, they only one any game all season because of 20 TD scoring David Johnson we went for 7pts EW at 11/1 (1/4 odds) and it landed quite nicely to give a huge – 87.5 points profit on him. Unfortunately we did waste 10 points on Jeremy Hill, although the theory was there, and he scored pretty well, the Bengals just had a bad season (read above) Baldwin it turns out is ok, but if his QB isn’t doing well enough he’s nowhere, and CJ Anderson, in fairness may well have got there had he not got injured quite early on. Total profit on this market – 73.5 points.
Ok, so that’s the winners… you’ll forgive me for not going into the losing season longs in quite so much detail… The receivers we went for Antonio Brown. The loss of Bryant of the season was a big hit on the passing offence, however, Brown finished 5th. Annoyingly close (less than 100 yds) to the top three which would of given us a profit on his selection. Even more annoyingly, there’s a good chance our EW shot. AJ Green would of won this selection had he not missed the last month due to a hamstring injury. We had 2pts EW at 16/1 which would of been another nice winner. But these things happen, and it means a 9 pt loss on the market.
Rushing yards… Well, the less said about this market the better. We had Todd Gurley straight up, and Devonta Freeman EW. Freeman did ok, but we didn’t realise quite how much of a committee the backfield there would be, and Tevin Coleman shared a lot of the load. Gurley was in one of the worst teams in the league so never really stood a chance. – 9pt loss here too. Despite sharing the load Freeman actually did ok finishing 9th, 200 yards off a top 3
So from a total outlay of 36 points on these markets, we returned a pretty fucking tasty 103 points of profit.
I’ve been drinking.
Now for the matchup bets… from @Andy_B_NFL_Tips – Catchy and easy to follow name, I know…
We went for the Cardinals and Steelers, and Browns and 49ers both to have matched records, both at 5/1 and if it wasn’t the some crazy bullshit from the Browns in the final game, we would of had a winner here. The Browns finished a loss behind the niners, but missed countless chances to take the win in the final game to equal the series. All in all, a good bet.
The Cardinals were a lot of peoples bet for the NFC championship, but they sucked this year, and as soon as the draw vs the Seahawks hit, this bet was dead in the water.
The Colts beating the Broncos record was a bone of contention at TDT HQ, but we went with it, and came worryingly close, although fell short in the end, They both won their final games, to leave the Broncos at 9-6 and the Colts at 8-8. If the Colts could protect Luck then it probably would of landed.
So, we lost 15 points on the matchup bets…Running total now down to 88 points profit.
I then decided to chuck in a few random request a bet suggestion, 1 which relied on AP, and 2 which relied on Todd Gurley, so safe to say they all failed.Now, I didn’t suggest stakes on any of these… Given the odds, I probably would of gone with 2 pts each, so i’m going to give us a 6 point loss on them.
Which means overall, from my (semi drunk) calculations we are 64 points in profit on the season long bets?!
Given that it’s the first season I/We’ve attempted anything like this, i’m massively happy with that! – I’ll be honest, that’s the 3rd different total I’ve got, but it seems reasonable given the huge win on David Johnson
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