Finally there’s a market out on total team points for next season. By the look of it, only available at bet365 at the moment, although i’m hoping others will open it up as well in the coming week or so. It’s also a market you can’t multiple as there’s obviously a lot of inter-connecting games in the market.
Research for this one wasn’t too difficult to be honest, find out the team totals from last year, record what 365 have offered for this year, and figure out whether I think that team has improved or regressed based on last seasons performances. At present I can only find the points totals on 365, if there’s anywhere else then please let me know!
(NUF is meant to be BUF, but late to change that now) EDIT – These were the prices the other day when they first put up the market, the Bills are now reduced to 326 points, not 341. Sorry
Above is last years points in order from most to last, then what bet365 are offering on the lower and upper sides, usual odds seem to be just under 2/1 for the Unders and Overs, with the middle section (401-450 for the Falcons) at 6/4 for most, although up to 31/20 for some of them.
So. Who have I picked out?
The first one that jumped out to me was the LA Rams. I know, I know, it’s the Rams. They stink, they’re boring and they’re shit, right? Well, possibly. But I think that was all down to Jeff Fisher as coach. He was a cancer on the offence last season and was the reason why they were so goddamn awful to watch. His one dream in life was to stop this 7-9 Bullshit, and he achieved that by going 4-12 and getting sacked during the season. However. This year they come into the season with 14 year old Sean McVay as head coach, fresh from work experience as a pretty successful offensive coordinator in a high scoring Washington Redskins offence. It won’t just be the change in mentality that provides them the extra 76 points they need over the season. It will be the improved offensive line, which should bring about an improvement in Jared Goff who i’m praying wasn’t too broken mentally after coming into the team too early last season. It will be the fact that he may actually have someone to throw the ball to this season after signing Sammy Watkins, and er, Robert Woods, in the slot, I expect this to open up things a little for Todd Gurley who should regress to his mean and at least score 7 or 8 TDs this season on the ground. As well as drafting Tight end Gerald Everett who could see a lot of the ball if things don’t go to plan for Goff and he has to dump it off.
The worry for them not getting to the points is their schedule, they have to play the Cardinals and Seahawks twice, both have very good units, the divisional schedules has them against the NFC East and AFC South, you’ve got the Giants, Texans and Jags in those who have good defences as well, so really it’s a case of judging whether they will improve enough to overcome those teams.
Last season they were historically bad and scored 224 points. This season they’re set at u251 points, between 251 and 300 points, or over 300 points. Personally I think it’s an over-reaction, they’re previous 5 years, all under Fisher were (2016-2011) 224, 280, 324, 348. 299, with the new coaching I’m suggesting Over 300 points at 9/5 on Bet365.
The second team that I thought were badly priced. The Tennessee Titans. They scored 381 points last year, and I think they’ve greatly improved their offence. But for some reason, the high total on them from bet365 is 365 points this year.
Now they are an off-season darling of a team, but they would have made the playoffs last season ahead of the Texans had Marcus Mariota not broken his leg. Mariota is a redzone machine, he’s still yet to throw and INT in the final 20 yards in his 2 years in the league, that’s pretty darn impressive, and something that if it carries on this year should result in even more TDs for the Titans. They picked up Corey Davis at pick 5 in the draft, he was a machine in college and set multiple TD and Receiving records, Eric Decker signed from the Jets, another redzone monster, it’s what he does. Put them two in alongside tight end Delanie Walker who has had 6 TDs in 3 of his 4 seasons in Tennessee. If they don’t do it through the air then they’ve got a brillint 1-2 punch on the ground as well, DeMarco Murray was 3rd in rushing yards last season, scored 9 TDs, as well as throwing one as well, alongside him is Derrick Henry who would be a #1 back in most teams in the league, he added 5 himself in limited time on the field. Oh, and all of this happens with one of the best offensive line units in the league who open up gaps and protect Mariota extremely well. Also, in terms of scoring points, their secondary isn’t that good either so they’re vulnerable to conceding points, ipso facto… they have to score more to win.
Again, the down point of the bet and possibly why they’ve lowered the total this year, is the division they’re in. They have to play the aforementioned Texans and Jags, as well as games against, well, obviously the NFC West, so Seahawks and Cardinals as well as the Rams who aren’t bad there, and the AFC North who also have pretty good defences, The Ravens especially. On the plus side they play the Colts, Browns, Niners, and Dolphins so could rack up points there.
Will they match the points they got last season? Yeah, I think they’ve improved past the tough schedule that faces them and I have them winning the division. – I’m going for over 365 points, again at 9/5.
Others to consider? The Niners look good there with a total less than they scored last year with a different group of coaches, Kyle Shanahan is in there now and we all saw what he can do with the Falcons last year, they have pretty much the same schedule as the Rams, so wouldn’t begrudge anyone taken them instead.
A few unders…
- Baltimore was tempting, I really don’t rate their offence this year.
- The NY Jets are tanking this year, but it’ll be hard to score under 261 points.
- The Buffalo Bills seem to be giving up this year too, it’s actually probably a good bet to take them at under 341 for the season, they will score less than the 399 last year.
- Rams over 300 points – 9/5
- Titans over 365 points – 9/5
4 points on each for me.
Any other suggestions based on the totals and prices available?