SNF – Week 15 write ups and tips

 

Very frustrating night yesterday, Marvin Jones started it well topping his yardage line in the second quarter, but nothing after that. The Bears couldn’t get the run game going and fucking Benny Cunningham was in at the end of the game when they were trailing, he got the TD for them. The late game was always a tough one to call and it could have gone either way but for a few costly turnovers by the Chargers which ended drives, also meant that Hunter Henry didn’t get to his yard target, it was the right bet as it was a low line in comparison, but the season has been that way for me this year. The Chiefs make it 13 in a row at home conceding less than 20 points, and the win last night pretty much seals the AFC West for them. Damnit.


Miami (+3.5) at Buffalo – o/u – 39.5

A surprisingly tough start to the predictions this week with two teams who I’m really not sure who or what they are. Tyrod SHOULD be back for the Bills, and they really need him to be, if not they’re starting a third string “QB” and will likely lose. Either way, Shady McCoy will get his, that’s about all I can say for sure from the Bills. The Dolphins? Well, they should in theory just ride Kenyan Drake as much as possible as his 193 yards last week against the Pats. If Tyrod plays I’m on the Bills, if not, the Dolphins. I expect him to play – History isn’t exactly on my side with this though – The Buffalo Bills are just 1-6 SU and ATS over their last seven games against AFC East opponents – BUFFALO – Kenyan Drake anytime – 13/8 (skybet) – 2pts

Green Bay (+3) at Carolina – o/u – 47

Aaron Rodgers returns with the Packers still in with a slight chance of making the playoffs. I think this may well be the last action he sees for the year though. I mean, surely if they’re out of contention they’ll just let him rest the remainder of the season to recover even more? – Jamaal Williams is darn good, but faces one of the better run defences in the league. I know I should buy in to the Packers with Rodgers back, and maybe I’ll regret it, but he’s just had 6 weeks and he’s coming back at the shortest quoted time so I’m just not sure, although every fantasy analyst I listen to is all in on him and the Packers this week. The Panthers are another who are tough to call, but they’re in the hunt for the NFC South still and beat one of the better teams in the conference last week, admittedly mainly due to chunk plays. But Cam is on form this year and if he’s in the mood he’s very difficult to play against, maybe Greg Olsen can do something this week? If not it’ll be all Funchess. – PANTHERS – The markets have reacted far too much for my liking on anytime prices, so nothing for me here.

Baltimore (-7) at Cleveland – o/u – 41.5

Will the Browns win a game? Will Hue survive? They’ve replaced Sachi and said he’s safe, but surely he can’t survive 0-16. This is not an easy challenge for them, the Ravens have found an offence, not from Joe Flacco, who still isn’t great, but from Alex Collins who I’ve been praising all year, oh how the Seahawks must wish they kept him, he’s great to watch and very effective. The Browns look a far more interesting team with Josh “Flash” Gordon back in the team, he has had 2 years off from playing and come back as though he’s never been away. It’s a low total in this game, and I shall be taking the overs, both teams apparently can score now, so seems a sensible bet. I need a Baltimore loss in their last 3 games to land u9.5 season wins. I don’t think I’m getting that loss here though, I am leaning towards them on the Browns on the Handicap, but they’re not winning – RAVENS – The Browns are one of the worst in the league in defending the tight end, so due to the slightly bigger odds I’ll risk a little on Ben Watson anytime TD – 11/4 (Unibet/PP) – 2pt, and the previously unheard of Terrance West – 20/1 (PP) had a couple of carries last week, if they rout the Browns which they could he could get some garbage time work, at the price 0.5 point stake. – And… I like the overs in this one – o41.5 – 2pts

Houston (+10.5) at Jacksonville – o/u – 39

Have the Jags ever been favourite by more than 10 points?! It can’t have happened often if at all. They probably deserve to be a TD favourite here, but ironically the Texans could well be a stronger team with TJ Yates instead of Tom Savage playing for them. I would imagine they’ll target Nuk Hopkins all day long as that seems to be all they’ve got, it won’t be easy going up against thunderc**t Jaelen Ramsey though he’ll be chipping all day. The Jags have been looking better on offence with Dede Westbrook back, and I had backed him for a couple of weeks to score before this week, a wedding got in the way and of course he scored. He’s increased his yards every week, finishing with over 80 last week, will that continue?! I should have been on this one yesterday when the news the Fournette was out broke, the price on Chris Ivory is useless now because of it. – JAGS – Dede Westbrook o48.5 receiving yards – 5/6 (PP) – NAP – 4pts

Cincinnati (+11) at Minnesota – o/u – 42

The Bengals have given up, they conceded 33 points to the worst offence in the league last week, admittedly with a host of injuries on both sides of the ball, but it was a heartless game and it will be interesting who plays most of the game at QB with them possibly looking to the future with Driskel or McCarron at some point in this game. The Vikings should run out comfortable winners, but with offensive line problems, the Bengals could cause some issues. Also, as I mentioned earlier in the year Dalton does pretty well against un-common opponents. But It’s in Minnesota against one of the most rounded teams in the league and the Bengals are 0-9 on the road against the Vikings, not a tough choice for the win, although I wouldn’t take them on the spread – VIKINGS – Latavius Murray anytime TD – 5/4 (Ladbrokes) – 2pts Murray 2+ – 15/2 (PP) – 1pt – Personally I’ve had the smallest of nibble on CJ Uzomah at 25/1 for the Bengals, as I think that Tyler Kroft will miss out and the Bengals like their tight ends, but I can’t tip him.

NY Jets (+16.5) at New Orleans – o/u – 46

Bryce Petty vs the Saints? What could possibly go wrong? It’s a 3 score handicap for the Saints to cover, but they may well do it still. Kamara is expected to be back to have a run out before the final two division deciding games against the Falcons and Panthers in the final two, but this should be a cake-walk – SAINTS – On the off chance that the Saints don’t want to rush back Kamara after his concussion, Trey Edmunds – 20/1 (Skybet) 0.5pt – But on the other side of that…

Philadelphia (-7.5) at NY Giants – o/u – 40

Carson Wentz getting injured was yet another hit to the entertainment of the league. But it shouldn’t bother the Eagles this week against a crappy Giants team. The line has actually come in to just -7 for the Eagles now, I would probably take that as even with Nick Foles, the Eagles are a balanced team with 3 good RBs, hopefully they’ll just ride Jay Ajayi (he was born in London don’t you know…) as he’s the best of the 3. The Giants? They’ll be there – EAGLES – AJayi anytime TD – 11/5 (Ladbrokes) – 2pts ap-jay-ajayi

Arizona (+4) at Washington – o/u – 40.5

I have no idea. The Redskins are beaten up all over the shop, they seemingly lose an offensive lineman or some other offensive piece every week. It’s been rough year for them. The Cardinals haven’t been much better to be honest, and it looks like AP will be out for the rest of the year so the offense will pretty much revolve around Kerwynn Williams. It’s not the most exciting game of the week for me. Travelling west to east is a tough one for most teams though – REDSKINS – Kapri Bibbs – 22/1 (PP) – 1pt – Other than Perine, he’s the only remaining RB for the Redskins!

LA Rams (+1) at Seattle – o/u – 47

Game of the week?! Whoever wins this will take the NFC West, well not guaranteed, but pretty much… The Seahawks lost yet another defensive player this week, Bobby Wagner suffering a hamstring injury. It could be the straw that breaks the camels back. I was actually on the Seahawks for most of the year, including this week, but looking into it a bit more and even the magic of Russell Wilson will struggle to get them past this Rams team. The Rams should welcome back Robert Woods this week to add to their loaded offence and Todd Gurley has been better than ever in recent weeks. The Rams are underdogs, and I will probably avoid betting on this one as it’s tough to take any team going up to the north west, but, for the win – RAMS

New England (-2.5) at Pittsburgh – o/u – 53.5

Game of the week?! This should be a cracker, it’s the battle for the #1 seed in the AFC. Last weeks surprising loss to the Dolphins doesn’t damper my thoughts on the Patriots too much, in fact they’re very good coming off a loss in the Belichick era (Belichick’s teams are 38-11 (.776) in games where they lost the week before) They welcome back Gronk this week and Chris Hogan at least had a good warm up for this game last week despite catching 1 ball for a yard. Against a beaten up Steelers defence they should be able to get the better of them. Whether they can stop Big Ben and Antonio Brown is a different thing though, they have been electric recently, AB putting up 600 yards in the last 4 games, including 213 yards last week. The Pats USUALLY try and take out Lev Bell and funnel the play elsewhere – Lev Bell has had 156 snaps MORE than any other RB in the league, he leads the league in rushing with under 4 yards per carry but the volume is ridiculous. I think personally it would make sense to stop Brown first and foremost, who knows! Generally the Patriots, and Belichick outcoach Mike Tomlin and I wouldn’t be shocked to see that again. It may be hoping too much, and I don’t want to jinx it, but – PATRIOTS – Gronk has scored 8 TDs in 5 games against the Steelers, he’s 4/5 best priced tonight.

Tennessee (+1) at San Francisco – o/u – 45

A 3 win team at home to an 8-5 team looking to take the AFC South championship, yet the 3 win team is the favourite and it’s all due to Mr. Garoppolo at QB giving the 49ers some hope for the first time in a few years, and in fairness they are probably rightful favourites. The Titans are a bit of a mess and Mariota clearly isn’t fit at the moment, they don’t seem to be able to see that Derrick Henry should be the lead back and continue in a time-share back there. I really don’t want to do it because, you know, it’s the 49ers, but I am so down on the Titans at the moment, a quick shout out to Marquise Goodwin who lost his child during birth last month and his father this week, I’m not sure what he did to annoy god, but surely this is enough pain for him now?! – 49ers – Delanie Walker anytime TD – 2/1 (Ladbrokes) – 3pts – NB

Dallas (-3) at Oakland – o/u – 46

The Cowboys last game without Zeke and they are still theoretically in the hunt for a playoff spot. I don’t think they’ll get there, but well done them. I’m also not buying the Dak Prescott resurgence. He hit his highest passing yards last week, but it wasn’t much to do with him, his pass catchers did all the work. His air yards were roughly half of the total he ended with. Although if he wants to look even more like he’s back then this is a good game for that. The Raiders defence is awful and the Cowboys should be able to do pretty much whatever they want this week. Not much to say from a Raiders standpoint. Derek Carr has greatly disappointed this season and the offence has been poor. – COWBOYS.

Quite a few for tonight, not much on the big games of the day though, doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of value available there. One thing to note is that Ladbrokes actually have some better prices than elsewhere for the first time ever!

Summary –

  • Kenyan Drake anytime – 13/8 (skybet) – 2pts
  • Ben Watson anytime TD – 11/4 (Unibet/PP) – 2pt
  • Terrance West – 20/1 (PP) – 0.5pt
  • Cleveland v Baltimore – o41.5 points – 2pts
  • Dede Westbrook o48.5 receiving yards – 5/6 (PP) – NAP – 4pts
  • Latavius Murray anytime TD – 5/4 (Ladbrokes) – 2pts
  • Murray 2+ TDs – 15/2 (PP) – 1pt
  • Trey Edmunds – 20/1 (Skybet) 0.5pt
  • AJayi anytime TD – 11/5 (Ladbrokes) – 2pts
  • Kapri Bibbs – 22/1 (PP) – 1pt
  • Delanie Walker anytime TD – 2/1 (Ladbrokes) – 3pts – NB
  • Walker and Ajayi double – 8.6/1 (Ladbrokes) – 2pts

21.5 point outlay

Good luck with whatever you’re on and if you’ve not joined the draftkings league, then get on it!! – https://dkn.gs/r/LOYkrK-f-EK5O-pQQpglFg

 

 

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