I was hoping to get through a lot more work yesterday, but life got in the way and as I’m not going to have much time over the weekend I better get on with it today.
Obviously we are pretty lucky in the UK with weekly prop bets, there’s usually around 230 lines available on Bet365, far more than is usually available in the states, so I won’t concentrate too much on the usual one, I have posted a couple on the preview thread Superbowl LII – Philadelphia Eagles v New England Patriots #FlyEaglesFly #GoPats and obviously check out the stupid props section here if you want to have some fun bets. But I’ll try and sift through the extra ones here and see if anything jumps out, there’s plenty of ways of making money on this game, it’s just a test trying to find it!
I haven’t mentioned any TD scorers in the props below, we all know about them every week and they’re all pretty tight. Trey Burton at 9/1 on PP seems like a fairly decent price if the Pats try and take away Zach Ertz which is quite possible. Corey Clement at 5/1 on WillHill are probably the only 2 value bets I can see in all honesty. If you wait until game time you can usually get Kenjon Barner at 375/1 for some reason, he’s the kick returner for them so usually worth a quid.
I’m on a few of these, not all of them, a lot are quite similar but give some options if you fancy a dabble on things.
- Highest scoring half – Second half – 20/21 (Main Props)
This is available at a lot of places but 365, Ladbrokes and Corals all have it at 20/21. Superbowls are generally slow starting, as I’ve said a few times the Pats haven’t scored in the 1st quarter of any of their last 7 Superbowls, and only put up 3 points in both of their playoff games so far this year.
- Tribet – Any other result – 2/1 (Main Props)
I mentioned this in the Superbowl preview thread, as far as I know 365 is the only place that offers the “Tribet” market. This option basically means either team to win by 5 or less points. All the Pats SBs have been decided by 4 or less, except the OT match last year. I think this will be a very close game decided by a late TD or FG. You can take Eagles 1-6 at 4/1 and Pats 1-6 at 7/2 at other places if you want but this is better value.
Both of the two above are on the standard game pages, both on Main Props. Below are on the NFL Future – Super Bowl specials page
Most time of possession – Eagles – 5/6 The Eagles led the league in time of possession in the regular season and have put up some clock sapping drives in the post-season too. They will look to keep the ball out of Brady’s hands by running a lot and slowing the game down. 10/11 over on William Hill.
- Team to record the first QB sack of the game – Eagles – 10/11
While Brady isn’t a very easy guy to sack, with 18 years of experience he knows how to move in the pocket, the Eagles have a better D-Line to the O-Line of the Patriots and have a bevvie of pass rushers who have pressured QBs all season. I would have the Eagles favourites here, but they’re not.
- Will either side convert a 4th down? – 2/5
Pretty crappy odds, and it’s slightly better on boylesport at 1/2, but I’m not sure as many people have an account there, but it’s 8/11 for them individually, I’m not saying I would back this myself at 1/2, but both of these coaches use analytics well and will go for the 4th down if it is in their favour. If not then it will be a team chasing the game in the 4th quarter who are forced to go for it. I am staking a fair bit on this game so may go for it anyway, it should win.
So I’ve given one at crappy odds, now a longshot or two –
Player record the most receiving yards – Chris Hogan – 9/1 and/or Torrey Smith – 14/1 Obviously a big risk whoever you take here, Hogan is the forgotten man in the Patriots offence, It wouldn’t shock me to see him have a blow-up game. Torrey Smith as the odds suggest is obviously even less likely to win this bet, BUT, he is the downfield threat for the Eagles, if they get behind and need some quick points he could be the player they aim for. Far better odds for this on Paddypower, Hogan at 14s, Smith at 16s on there… Scratch that. 16s and 22s on Willhill!
These are all from the Superbowl Match Specials market on there –
- Team to receive the opening kick off – Eagles – 10/11
The Patriots always choose to defer, I honestly don’t know what the Eagles do, but if I was them I would want the ball first to try and get some points on the board and put a little pressure on the opposition.
- First team penalised for Pass Interference – Eagles – Evens
We all know the Patriots have the referees in their pockets right? Well, maybe not, but they are a very well drilled team and don’t concede many penalties. They also have Cooks who has drawn a huge amount of PI calls this season and will challenge the Phillie corners.
- Opening kick off to be a Touchback – Yes – 10/11
I’m pretty sure this is usually a pretty heavy favourite. If the Pats kick off I can see Gostkowski putting it into the stands out of the back of the end zone. Even if the Pats receive i’m not sure Amendola will attempt to run it out of his own end zone. They’re too clever for that.
- Most receiving yards handicap – B – Chris Hogan +24.5 – 5/6
As I said above for some reason I think that Hogan will have a good game, if I’m getting 25 yards on a player who will probably be matched up with Gilmore then I’ll take the free yards. – Side note on this one – Most recieving yards match bet – C is Torrey Smith vs Chris Hogan, both at 5/6. Again I would take Hogan to out-gain Smith, AND a further side bet, probably the one I like the most of the three in all honesty – Most receptions match bet – C – Hogan at 1/1 over Torrey Smith.
- Coin toss winner – Eagles – 20/21
Another pretty stupid one that I probably won’t back. BUT… Did you know that the Pats have only won the toss in 1 of their 7 Brady/Belichick Superbowls?
- 1st Qtr vs 4th Qtr – More points scored – 4th quarter – 4/11
Again, not one I will be taking at such massive odds on, but I’d be amazed if it doesn’t land
- Will Patriots rush for a Touchdown – Yes – 4/6
I’m not sure what I’m missing here to be honest, I know that the Eagles have a very good run defence, but in the whole game? A PI in the end zone gets them to the 1, a drive down to the 5 yd line with 3 downs, at least 2 of them will probably be rush attempts? I am surprised by the odds on this one to be honest, and this is one I will be playing.
- When will the Patriots score most points – Second half + OT – 5/6
I know we’ve all been banging on about this stat, but the Pats don’t score in the 1st quarter of post-season matches. Therefore, 2nd half seems a lot more likely, getting OT as well just sweetens the pie.
- Will the Eagles rush for a Touchdown – Yes – 8/11
The Pats on the other hand do not have a good run defence, they were actually one of the worst in the league with regards to yards conceded. I did however quote a few stats in the Superbowl preview thread, they actually conceded less rush TDs than the Eagles did during the season. I actually prefer the Pats to score a rushing TD than the Pats.
- What will happen first for the Patriots – Punt – 4/5
I will not be backing all of these bets that insinuate that the Patriots won’t score in the first quarter, I’ve said my piece there, and the world seems to know pretty well about their problems scoring in the first quarter, so I don’t want to put ALL my eggs in one basket, but I’ll give people a few different options to attack on that front.
- First penalty culprit – Special teams – 9/2
There always seems to be a flag for illegal block in the back on kick returns these days, either that or holding. IF either team tries to return the opening kick off then we could be golden, at the odds, I’ll take a punt on this (yes, I know)
The Nations best bookie. Nothing on there in the special markets to be honest, mostly stuff that you can get week in, week out. Most unlike them, they love money.
William Hill –
- (Superbowl Specials) Patriots to win a challenge – 5/1
Not really any stats or logic behind this other than the fact that it seems like high odds for the bet. As with nmost things, I get the feeling that the Pats know what they’re doing.
- (Player Props) Player with longest reception – Torrey Smith – 14/1, Mack Hollins 40/1
Couple of long shots there. Smith is the usual downfield threat, Mack Hollins might get himself a catch, if he does it will be a long way down the field!
- Longest reception for Torrey Smith – o17.5 – 10/11
You may notice a theme here. If he catches one it will be in the secondary. A long of 20 vs Atlanta and 41 vs the Vikings in the 2 playoff games this year.
- Kenjon Barner and Amendola – Longest punt returns – both overs at 9.5 – 10/11
10 yards isn’t far for a punt return, I would think there would be quite a few punts in this game so should be plenty of opportunity for returns.
Nothing on here that takes my fancy tbh.
I’ll admit that I don’t have an account here, I may open one tomorrow with the deposit bonus. As you’d expect they have a ton of markets on the big game so I’ll have a look tomorrow afternoon if I get time and see if there’s anything that takes my fancy.
The obvious choices are Brady and Foles, if the Pats win it will be Brady, James White got 3 TDs last year and yet Brady still got the MVP. For the Eagles it’s a little different, I think they could win with defence. 2 guys stand out from the pas rush side of things. Fletcher Cox is 150/1 on Boylesport, 100/1 on Coral – Brandon Graham is at 250/1 on Bet365, and if you want a skill player from the Eagles, I think Corey Clement could surprise, he’s a lovely 300/1 on Paddypower. I will have very small bets on each
What have I backed?
Ok, things I’m on, as much as a way of remembering them myself as anything else…I will be going through a fair bit with it being the end of the season and so many markets available!
- William Hill
- Belicheck Yourself – Pats to win a challenge – 5/1
- Barner longest punt return o9.5 – 10/11
- Amendola longest punt return o9.5 – 10/11
- Timberlake to cover any Prince song – 2/1
- Player to record longest reception – Mack Hollins – 40/1 (Will be placing when my boost reloads tomorrow)
- Most time of possession – Eagles – 10/11
- Highest scoring half – second half – 20/21
- Tribet – 2/1
- Brandon Graham MVP – 250/1
- 1st quarter handicap – Eagles + 0.5 – 4/5
- HT/FT – Eagles/Patriots – 15/2 – BOOST
- 1st Eagles offensive play – run – 4/1 – BOOST
- Gronk anytime – 11/10
- 1st team penalised for PI – Eagles – 1/1
- National Anthem u123.5 seconds – 5/6
- First penalty culprit – 9/2
- Most receptions match bet – C – Hogan at 1/1 over Torrey Smith.
- Eagles to score a rushing TD – 8/11
- Patriots to score a rushing TD – 4/6
- Corey Clement MVP – 300/1
All with various stakes and quite a few of these have shortened in price since I placed the bets.
I’m probably most confident in the half with most points. Time of possession looks good too.
That pretty much rounds up everything I have/need to post on the big game tomorrow, please read the other posts
If you haven’t already and follow @TouchdownTips. It’s been a long and challenging season, thanks if you’ve been reading all along!