Leading Passer market

So, finally some bookies out there are offering EW prices on the leading markets on these guys. In the topsy-turvy ever changing world of the NFL, they’re a very tough market to get on the nose, so I feel that EW is important to get some kind of return on them.

This was meant to be one post on Passing, Rushing and Receiving, but it turned out to be a lot of words on just passer!

Last year we had an EW return on Phillip Rivers and LeSean McCoy in the passing and rushing markets respectively.

EDIT: So it turns out Sky and RedzoneSports are offering EW now as well. On the plus side they may have listened when I asked, on the negative side, they could have at least bloody told me, or maybe I just didn’t realise after my first check a few weeks ago. I don’t think it changes much, but it’s good to know as they’re best priced on a few. 

Skybet are also offering 4 places instead of the 3 on offer at Betfred and William Hill. Depending on the odds that could be useful when going for long shots. Unfortunately the odds on Mariota are too low at 66/1 for me to consider them over the 100/1 available for 3 places.

Betfred and William Hill at the moment are the only books I can find offering Each Way, although I have requested with Bet365 and Skybet, to be honest, I’m not sure why they don’t offer it, I’m sure from a business sense they’d make more money from mugs like me betting on ridiculous long shots rather than not betting at all. But hey, fuck knows.

I do plan on getting divisional previews done at some time over the summer, probably within the next couple of weeks, but they’re a fair bit of work and finding time and energy in this kind of heat isn’t easy. BUT the wife and child are away for a week soon so I’ll have some time in the afternoon/evenings for them.

I have quite a few things on my odds tracking spreadsheet but it needs updating before sharing again, doesn’t yet have any EW markets on there which I’ve used below, so no link for it, but I’ll get on it soon!


Leading Passer –

Last years winner Tom Brady – 4,577 yards.

Brady 5/1, Brees 6/1, Big Ben 10/1, Rodgers 11/1, Rivers 12/1, Stafford, Ryan 16/1, Garoppolo, Cousins, Watson 28/1, Luck 33/1

So Tom Brady leads the market, I guess because he won last year that makes sense, but I’m not going to take him at that price. He’s lost a lot of players in the off-season and arguably will be starting the season with one of the poorer WR rosters in the league. Edelman is suspended for 4 games, so it’s down to Chris Hogan and, er… Kenny Britt?! – In fairness I’d expect a lot of Gronk, but as they’ll be leading a lot (They have one of the easiest schedules) they won’t NEED to pass. So i’m out on him this year. (Usually not a good move to doubt Brady but here we are) 5/1 Skybet – EW Available

Drew Brees, for obvious reasons is near the top of the list, there has been over 5,000 yards thrown 9 times, 5 of those were Drew Brees. I was on him last year, despite being told by someone on twitter that it would be more run heavy, and less passing I stuck with him. It didn’t pay off as we went for win only on it, but he was still a top 4 passer albeit 200-odd yards off of Tom Brady at the top. I do think they’ll continue in roughly the same vein as last year, more rushing than years previous to this. So again, I’m off him. 6/1 Skybet – EW Available

Big Ben? Well, AB will get around 1,500 yards if healthy, Juju seems to be liked by most, and I can’t deny he had a good year, and as the Steelers are apparently the only team capable of drafting WRs who can work well straight away the addition of James Washington should help him too. The tight ends don’t give him a whole lot of work, but Lev Bell does help him get a lot of free yards with dump offs in the backfield/screen passes. He’s one for the shortlist, but I feel his home/road splits let him down. 10/1 365 – Win Only

Aaron Rodgers should probably be the choice, BUT… He’s only once gone over 4,500 yards in a season. He’s coming back from a collarbone injury and the NFC North is very competitive this year, the Bears, Vikings and Lions all have pretty good defenses (the first 2 were both top 10 last year) Randall Cobb looks like he’s going to be playing injured all year, Jordy Nelson has gone (no big loss for yards frankly) In theory there’s no real reason to go against him, but I’m not feeling it. 11/1 Skybet – EW Available

So all the above are best priced on Sky or 365, 365 is still win only. I was intending to take one for the win and one EW, but I don’t like the win only guys, so I’ll have a few stabs at some top 3 finishes.

I do like Phillip Rivers again this year. Bad points first, he’s lost Hunter Henry who I think would have been near to 800 yards this year, whether they start Virgil Green  or get Antonio Gates back, I doubt they’ll get near to 400 yards between them at tight end now. Good points. Keenan Allen looked great last year, Tyrell and Mike Williams are good, Travis Benjamin offers a downfield threat, and probably most importantly they look to have firmed up the offensive line which so often cause issues for the Chargers. He was 25/1 last year, finished second, you can get 12/1 EW on him at William Hill now, which is the best I can find anywhere. 4pts EW on Rivers – 12/1 – William Hill

I think Matt Ryan is due a bounce back year. The first year of the Shanahan offense his numbers were down, then he had a career year in the second year. Last year was the first year with Sarkesian taking over play calling. It wasn’t pretty. His TD numbers especially were down, but he still topped 4,000 yards and finished 6th in yards. He’s not lost a whole lot and they drafted Calvin Ridley quite high as well. Logically his numbers should improve. Will he throw for 500 more? Debatable, but he’s probably a decent EW shot at 16/1 over on Betfred, again better priced than the win only sites.

Matthew (Don’t call me Matt) Stafford should have a good year in Detroit too, he’s widely perceived as a top 10 QB in the league now, and his side arm throws are a think of beauty to watch. Kenny G should be running his smooooooooth routes for an added downfield threat alongside Marvin Jones, and Golden Tate will fill in the shorter routes. Again there’s not really a tight end threat here, and as with Rodgers, the defences in this division are tough. 16/1 Skybet – EW Availabvle

Ok, that’s the smaller priced guys, you’ll be reading forever if I go in that much on the rest of them, so I’ll skim a little now.

Cousins – Love him, but that defences should give him shorter yardage and negate the need for him to throw tons. 20/1 Betfred – EW

Garoppolo – He’s an attractive man, he’s never lost a game, he’s in the Shanahan offence, has a good pass catching back, Goodwin for longer throws, Garcon for shorter throws, good chemistry with his tight end. It all points up for Jimmy. In fact, as he’s as low as 9/1 in some places I’ll give it 2pt EW – 20/1 William Hill. 

Andrew Luck – Bit of a wild card here as he’s not thrown a ball in the league for a year and a half, but if he’s healthy, he’s rather good as 4,761 yards shows a few years back. I personally don’t think he’s really got the weapons to get there, BUT, his defense is likely still shit meaning they’ll probably have to air it out, always good for a QB. 50/1 RedzoneSports – Win Only, you can get 25/1 EW on Betfred though. Hmmm, I didn’t actually see the 50/1 at RZ. He’s best priced 33s elsewhere. 50s makes me look twice, but still go past.

Wentz – Probably would have been the MVP last year if it wasn’t for his injury, was stupid efficient to the extent if he retained it he’d be putting up record numbers. I don’t think he’ll be able to keep that up, the return from knee injury concerns me. 33/1 William Hill – EW. 50/1 Win only at RZ

Watson – As above, would have thrown for over 300 touchdowns if he kept up his pace for the whole season (rough guesstimation) Although he COULD, I just don’t think he’ll be able to show what he did in limited games last year. I could be stung by this one, he was amazing. But he’s behind one of the bottom 5 O-lines in the league. 40/1 Bet365, RZ – Win Only, best of 20s if you want EW.

Patrick Mahomes – He’s a gunslinger. He’s got a below-average defense, he’s got one of, if not, the quickest pass catchers in the league, Sammy Watkins is looking good out there, Kareem Hunt is good out of the backfield, Travis Kelce is a top 3 Tight end. Hmmm, at 33/1 he’s probably not an awful bet. He will probably throw a lot of INTs, but that means they may well be trailing more meaning more passing. I think he’ll be over 4,000 yards. You can get 2/1 on that at Skybet – 3pts Patrick Mahomes over 4,000 passing yards – 2/1 – Skybet. I’m tempted, very tempted to go EW on him at 33/1 on William Hill.

Alex Smith – Talking of KC, he was Mr. Reliable there, but couldn’t get them over the hump so they moved on. Now in Washington he should carry on there. But I don’t think he’ll ever get into the top 3 of the league in passing. 40/1 EW – William Hill

Eli – Has weapons back, a top RB, top WR, top TE, improved protection in front of him, but is he still any good? I can’t trust him to hit top 10, let alone top 3. 50/1 EW – William Hill

Russell Wilson – He’s all the Seahawks have. He’s got no-one to throw the ball to especially is Doug Baldwin carries an injury all year which, with a “sore knee” he might. Tyler Lockett? Amara Darboh? Damore’ea Stringfellow? That last one is an actual guys name. They want to go more run heavy this year, it probably won’t happen, but I can’t see Wilson hitting the top 3. 50/1 Win only – 365.

The rest aren’t even really worth a mention…

 

 

 

EXCEPT….

 

 

 

For some reason I’m really high on the Tennessee Titans this year, and therefore MARCUS MARIOTA. I love Corey Davis at WR for them, he holds college records for yards and TDs, Rishard Matthews or Taywon Taylor are good in the slot, Delanie Walker is a 800 yard a year TE, Dion Lewis should give him a lot of free yards from the backfield, he’s behind a possibly top 5 offensive line. Probably most importantly they changed coach and offensive co-ordinator, bringing in Matt LeFluer from the Rams where he helped them score the most points of any team last season. The down points… Mariota hasn’t really done it in the league. They play the Jaguars and their defence twice a year. He’s had a maximum of 3,426 yards in his time, although nearly 4,500 in college, so he can do it. Maybe. Either way if I’m getting 100/1 EW, I think I’ll give it a little punt. 0.5pt EW – 100/1 – Betfred.

 

So I think that’s about it on the QBs… Appreciate you reading if you made it this far!

Summary – 

  • Phillip Rivers – 12/1 EW – William Hill – 4pts EW
  • James Garoppolo – 20/1 EW – William Hill – 2pts EW
  • Marcus Mariota – 100/1 EW – Betfred – 0.5pt EW
  • Patrick Mahomes over 4,000 passing yards – 2/1 – Skybet – 3pts.

Total – 16 points outlay

 

Image of Rivers and his crazy throwing style, in that beautiful baby blue uniform from NBC Sports.

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