Before I get started, thank you to all the new followers over the past week, it’s been crazy how quickly I’ve gone from 1,600 to over 2,000 and seemingly more every hour! I put a ton of work into these writeups and appreciate the thanks and other messages saying that they’ve enjoyed reading them! – It’s all for free, but signing up through this RedzoneSports link helps me out, so if you need an account there then please do that! There’s a donate page on here too 😉
Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat a night to start the season, I didn’t quite realise how much I had missed my Sunday nights watching football until I almost woke my daughter up with Clayton Fejedelem picked up a Jack Doyle fumble to run 80 yards back for the game icing TD for the Bengals!
A few things that I enjoyed from last night, obviously the NAP and NB both coming in by half time, obviously if the 2 biggest bets you’ve got on the night land then you’re sitting well for finishing the night in profit! The 49ers still not being able to convert with any regularity meaning their drives ended a few times with field goals, lovely 3/1 on o2.5 in that game. The odds on Peterson scoring a TD. And the crazily low line on Rex Burkhead (Thank you Paddypower.) Oh, and away from betting, being correct about Dallas being garbage.
I wrongly assumed that Latavius Murray would get goal line carries in the Vikings game… well I say I wrongly assumed it, they didn’t actually get any goal line carries, in fact they didn’t even get into the redzone until half way through the 3rd quarter then promptly got pushed back and threw to Rudolph for the score.
I can’t believe out of the score every quarter trixie, the Bengals were the only one of the three to actually achieve it! The Saints scored 40 points but missed the 3rd quarter, and the Chargers did what they usually do, screwed up. They had a ton of drops which didn’t help us there at all!
All in all, 7 (and a bit) winners from 12 bets for around 13 points profit! Latavius Murray not scoring cost us a very nice win unfortunately – You can view the Profit/Loss spreadsheet here – Profit/Loss
Oh, and the Skybet boosted treble won quite quickly as well at 10/1 – I didn’t post it on here or telegram, but had quite a few people ask about it on twitter and took it myself, so won’t be on the spreadsheet.
Also, also, the treble that @Tips_Central, @SiCoManc and myself put up every Sunday won at 11/2 too!
Jets (+7) at Lions: Total – 44.5
First things first, I have no idea how these teams are going to play! The Jets are starting rookie QB Sam Darnold who is going to become the youngest QB to start the season in NFL history which immediately adds confusion for me, and the Lions have a new head coach in Matt Patricia, the former Patriots defensive coordinator. The good thing with the Lions is that at least they kept Jim Bob Cooter as the play caller, so I would assume it won’t be too far off last season.
The Lions though look like they’re going to be trying to focus on the run, they drafted an offensive lineman in the first round of the draft this year, then brought in young RB Kerryon Johnson in the second round adding him to Legarrette Blount who they signed in free agency as well as pass catching back Theo Riddick. So it’s safe to say it’s pretty tough to figure out what’s going to happen week-to-week at the moment. It’s expected that by halfway through the season Kerryon will take over the majority of the work, i’d expect Blount to be the goal-line back and Riddick to be the pass-catching back, but at the moment it’s just too complicated for me to pick from. The passing game shouldn’t change too much though, Golden Tate will mainly be the possession guy in the middle of the field, Marvin Jones the WR2 and Kenny Golladay will be the downfield threat. He started last season with a brace in his first game before struggling for the rest of the season with muscle injuries, not good for a big speedy guy like him, but he’s had the summer to get fit and seems like he’s managed to do so. He’s the highest price of the three at 11/4 (3.75) on Skybet anytime so I’ll go for him to cross the paint. Tight end is a mess after Eric Ebron left for the Colts (and scored for them last night) so I’ll stay away there too, I think Luke Willlllllllllson will be the main guy there, but again, it’s complicated. They’re not a bad defense and with a defensive-based head coach should get stronger there, Darius Slay is one of the best secondary guys in the league, but they lack pass rush which is never good for any team. Matthew Stafford is great to watch at QB, he’s top 10 at his position and will throw the ball all over the park. He’s also, suitably for tonight, got a great record against teams with a losing record. And while the Jets don’t have one yet, they’re a team that the Lions expect to beat.
The Jets have decided that Sam Darnold is their guy and they’re throwing him straight in after some good pre-season performances. That usually means a mix of short passes, lots of off-target attempts and turnovers for most rookies so I can’t turn down Darnold o0.5 interceptions at 1.57 on Skybet, the Lions were 5th in interceptions last year as well. In fairness the Jets have been amazed with his development in the short time he’s been there and have opened the playbook a little to him already, so it could be a different story for him, but history says it will be tough. It’s yet to be seen who he favours in the passing game, Quincy Enunwa might not be the first player you think of after missing all of last year with a neck injury, but he’s back fit and looked great before the injury, he should be in the slot, and therefore probably the easiest target for a young QB. Robby Anderson was a breakout star for them last year, and his pace gives him a lot of advantages on the outside, he’s a bit of a dick off the field and might end up serving a ban some time during the season, but he’s a go for tonight! There’s a mystery man in this group too, will Terrelle Pryor be able to do anything for the Jets? He was a star at Cleveland before under-performing hugely in Washington, and he’s missed a lot of pre-season with injury at the Jets so far, he’s got the ability to play well though. At running back it was assumed that Isaiah Crowell would be the main man, they brought him in from the Browns and he’s got the talent to succeed, but it seems like Bilal Powell will get a lot of the ball as well. He’s an adept pass-catcher and whenever he’s been given the role he’s done very well, Bowles has said he’ll be using a hot-hand approach, but the fact that Powell started the final 2 pre-season games makes me think it’ll be him getting the first chance tonight. Tight end? God knows, they’ve got a few to choose from but none have any proven track record, so I have no idea. Defensively the Jets aren’t a bad unit actually, they took two safeties in the draft last year and Jamal Adams is going to be a star in this league.
The Lions should win tonight, they’re good at home and usually take care of teams that they SHOULD beat. I wouldn’t touch the spread with the Lions being a touchdown favourite though.
- Sam Darnold o0.5 Interceptions – 4/7 (1.57) (Skybet) – 3 points
- Bilal Powell – 11/4 (3.75) (Bet365) – 2 points
- Kenny Golladay – 11/4 (3.75) (Skybet) – 2 points
(If you fancy both you can get 8/1 (9.0) on Skybet)
Rams (-5.5) @ Raiders: Total – 47.5
What a difference in off-seasons for these two teams. The Rams brought in Suh, signed up the best defensive player in the league to a big deal to give them the best interior line in the recent years, whereas Jon Gruden seems to be on a mission to destroy everything that has been done by the previous regime, including trading the second best defensive player in the league, Khalil Mack to the Bears where he promptly started off with the forced fumble, recovery and a defensive TD for his new team. The Rams are one of the Superbowl favourites, the Raiders are favourites for 4th in their division.
The Rams were the highest scorers in the league last year, thanks mainly to Sean McVay. His schemes, playbook and the way he helped Jared Goff to read defenses before the headset cuts off was brilliant.
I’ll be honest, I still don’t particularly rate Jared Goff, but you can’t argue with results. McVay works everything for him to succeed, he’s had good reports in the off-season though and seems to be looking improved again coming into this year. A lot of his yardage last year came from short passes to Todd Gurley and letting him do everything, if it works, it works. He had an amazing season with over 2,000 total yards and 19 touchdowns! He’ll do well to match that again with more tape on the McVay playbook, but if anyone can figure out how to get the best out of him again, you’ve got to say it’s McVay. Cooper Kupp was Goffs favourites target last year, he’s a very reliable slot receiver and gets a lot of looks in the redzone as well, so he’s usually a good one to look out for in the passing game. They brought in Brandin Cooks from the Patriots as an upgrade to Sammy Watkins and he’ll definitely add a downfield threat for them. Robert Woods had a good season last year as well. They’re another team I’m finding a little tough to figure who’s going to get the ball, when and where. Tight end? Apparently Gerald Everett is going to get the ball more this year, it’s between him and Tyler Higbee. Again, they’re an avoid for now. Actually, scratch that, I’ve just seen that Everett is available at 10/1 at 365, I’ll have a go on him at the price. The Raiders are typically pretty poor against the tight end.
The Raiders… I have very little faith in them doing anything this year. Derek Carr was on MVP form a few seasons ago before ending it on IR, he returned last season but struggled with injury again, returned too quickly from a back injury and seemingly played hurt the whole season. A full summer to recuperate should have done him good. His go-to guy, by means of the fact there’s very little else, will probably be Amari Cooper. He’s an incredibly frustrating guy to catch right as all his fantasy owners ever will tell you. He got nearly half of his total yards for the year in just 2 games, so it’s safe to say he’s always going to be a risky play. They replaced Michael Crabtree with Jordy Nelson and he’ll probably perform a similar role for the team, mainly a redzone threat. Seth Roberts will be their WR3 and is also capable of some big games, he’s got a small receiving yards target available tonight on Bet365, 25.5 is achievable from 1 or 2 passes if they play anything like last season, and keeping with the Grudens seeming obsession with bringing in old players, they recently picked up Brandon LaFell after the Bengals cut him. It seems like Gruden is trying to play like it’s the 90s again by leaning heavily on the run game, and they’ve got a good guy there in Marshawn Lynch who looked as good as ever in pre-season. If they can get him going he can help carry this team to maybe 5 wins, he looks like he’s still capable of doing that, the worry for tonight is that he’s got a groin injury, he’s expected to play but it’s a worry. If he misses any snaps you’ve got Doug Martin, Jalen Richard, DeAndre Washington all waiting to give it a go! They’ve got the most reliable tight end playing tonight in Jared Cook, but you’ll be getting desperate if you’re looking at him to do much. Defensively they’re not great.
I’ve been banging the table on this game for the last few months. The Rams only being 3 point favourites boggled my mind, they’re now 5.5 point favourites and I’d expect them to beat that as well, but it won’t be a bet of mine.
- Gerald Everett anytime TD – 10/1 (11.0) (365) – 1 point
- Seth Roberts o25.5 rec. yards – 1/1 (2.0) (365) – 2 point
- LA Rams sacks – o2.5 – 5/4 (2.25)(Skybet) – 2 points
Good Luck if you follow along tonight!