Week 16 – SNF – Betting previews and tips #NFL100

So the Texans locked up the South and the #4 seed in the AFC, we got the Rojo yards, Dare Ogunbowale rec. yards as well although they didn’t have a line up until very late. Also had Justin Watson score but Will Fuller went out injured annoyingly so didn’t hit the 7/1 on both of them scoring. It secured the AFC South for the Texans and the #4 seed in the AFC.

The Pats dealt with the Bills but in a pretty good game, defenses were on top for the whole but the move John Brown put on the Pats defense to get open downfield was a thing of beauty. They ground it out in the end though with Sexy rexy the man in this one. It secured the AFC East for the Pats and keeps them in pole position for #2 in the AFC.

And the 49ers won a cracker in San Fran. with a last second field goal from the Goldman. Admittedly I didn’t see this one, but looking at the box score looks like the QBs weren’t exactly great, Gurely got a couple of scores the 49ers shared the ball around. The 49ers keep up their chase for the #1 seed in the NFC.


Ravens -10 @ Browns: 49

The Ravens will secure the #1 seed with a win at the hapless Browns tonight. The last game they lost this season was in week 4 when hosting the Browns. Since then they’ve won 10 games covering the spread in 8 of them.

There’s not a whole lot to say about the Ravens really. Lamar Jackson is going to be the MVP, he’s broken the QB rush record and the team as a whole are on target to have more rush yards than any team in history; Ingram, Jackson and even Gus Edwards have had good years for the team and they’ve taken the league by storm.

The Browns haven’t done a thing since that big win against the Ravens and last week pretty much opitimised their season and the organisation as a whole. They got smashed by the Cardinals, Kareem Hunt called out his team mates for not giving their full effort all game, supposedly Jarvis Landry was shouting “come and get me” to the Cardinals sideline and Beckham is as forthright as ever, oh and Baker will say whatever he wants too regardless of consequences.

It’s a big spread and if it wasn’t for the disarray in Cleveland I’d be backing them, but they’re a mess so I can’t back them.

Ravens win, not touching the spread or total. Kareem Hunt o28.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (365) – They’re not raising his receiving line and he’s hit this in 4 of 6 games, I expect the Browns to trail so they’ll use their pass catching back a lot

Panthers +6.5 @ Colts: 47

Will Grier comes in for the Panthers, he looked poor in preseason by Kyle Allen has shown he’s not the future for them so they’re giving him a go at least. That probably means more for the tight ends and short distance passing so McCaffrey and DJ Moore who’s top 5 in targets since mid-season already. The one interesting thing in this game is that McCaffrey needs 388 total yards in his last two games to beat the all time scrimmage yards record.

The Panthers are the worst in the league at defending the run and the Colts get Marlon Mack another week closer to full health. He didn’t do a lot in a poor game script this Monday gone but should be able to run well in this one. They welcomed back TY Hilton on Monday too so you’d expect him to do better in this one as well. Zach Pascal has done fairly well.

More than enough on this one, no bets for me with a rookie QB there, who knows.

Marlon Mack anytime – 10/11 (Betfair)

Bengals -1 @ Dolphins: 45.5

Are the Bengals going to try and win? They are 2 games ahead in the race for the #1 pick so can afford one win, but with the Browns up next week they may underplay this one and try harder next week. Who knows. The Bengals have been pretty good on defense recently especially the pass rush which should be able to beat the Miami offensive line. Joe Mixon has been brilliant since the Bengals week 9 bye, second in the league in touches and scrimmage yards and has been constantly creating something from nothing. He’s awesome.

The Dolphins have been fiesty this year. They’ve put up a lot of points since Fitzpatrick came back into the lineup and his play has got Devante Parker a nice fat contract as he’s been great with Fitz. Outside of them two there’s not a whole lot to aim for from a betting standpoint. Mike Gesicki is averaging over 5 targets per game and his line is set at 3.5 which is tempting. Patick Laird is an RB who can’t run but he’s good catching out of the backfield so if the Bengals bring pressure he might get a few more catches.

No bets, I like the Bengals obviously, and possibly a weirdly entertaining high scoring game.

Jagaurs +7.5 @ Falcons: 47.5

Jags stink, can’t stop the run, or much else recently but managed to fuck up Oaklands leaving the Coliseum last week. DJ Chark is back for them which helps the offense a lot. Fournette really isn’t that great, and the offensive line stinks.

The Falcons are hit and miss, they targeted Julio Jones TWENTY times last week ending with 13 for 134 yards and a TD against the 49ers. I like Devonta Freeman to have a good game in this one as the Jags suck vs the run.

Falcons should win and probably cover, but I don’t trust them.

Saints -2.5 @ Titans: 50

The Saints smashed the Colts in their dome on Monday night with Drew Brees not only breaking the TD record but the pass completion record as well on the same night. That means they’re coming off a short week, going outside onto a grass field. That’s about all the negative I can think of for the Saints to be honest. They’re very good, Michael Thomas is probably the best WR in the league this year, they’ve got a good offensive line, which admittedly is missing a few guys and they’ve got a solid defense which they strengthened by signing Janoris Jenkins in the week. The Hill brothers have been good weapons for them in recent weeks, Taysom and Josh.

The Titans ideally want to run the ball a lot with Derrick Henry, which is great, but they officially made him questionable on Saturday and promoted an RB from the practice squad which is a big worry for them and makes me think he’s not going to play. That would probably mean more for the tight ends and AJ Brown as they definitely won’t make Dion Lewis or Mr. Blasingame a workhorse back. AJ Brown has been great in recent weeks but this is the hardest test Tannehill and him have faced.

I’ve got to take the Saints to win and cover in this one. They need to keep winning to secure a bye week, and while the Titans need to win to keep up the pace for a wildcard spot, the Saints are just the better team.

Josh Hill anytime – 8/1 (Skybet)

Giants +1 @ Redskins: 41

I strangely love the over on this one. It’s a low total and I don’t rate either defense, I think both teams will be able to score easily. The worry is that the Redskins will be able to slow the game play so much that there’s not that many plays.

Daniel Jones has miraculously recovered from his injury and will play, Engram will be out again but other than that they’re actually fairly healthy on offense. Barkley had a good game last week and Darius Slayton has been great this year and deserves a mention for OROY. Tate and Shepard will get theirs as well.

The Redskins want to run the ball, so Adrian Peterson always gets a lot, there’s no-one else there really other than Chris Thompson but he rarely gets carries. Dwayne Haskins has looked more comfortable at QB by the week and had his higest passing yards of his short career last week as well as rushing for 28 yards. Terry McLaurin is a phenom who can create something from nothing and has made some circus catches this year.

I like the Giants to win and over on the total. Steven Sims an interesting look at 10/1 on Betfair/Betfred, he had a lot of targets last week, 5 from 11 targets and a TD.

Darius Slayton anytime (5/2 Betfred, and 2 or more – 16/1 (Skybet)

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Steelers -3 @ Jets: 37

Mike Tomlin for coach of the year. He’s a hero and deserves all the awards. In fairness the Steelers defense has been great, the offense has been hideous, putrid, moribund, abominable, appalling, awful, disgusting, dreadful, frightful, ghastly, grim, grisly, gruesome, hateful, horrendous, horrid. It’s not good. They should finally have Juju back though, that might help, but I doubt it, their QBs are fucking shite.

The Jets aren’t exactly great either, but it’s a Lev Bell REVENGE game. He’s been dire without one of the best offensive lines in the league, who’d have thunk it. Darnold has shown signs of life but I don’t give much hope of the passing game doing anything in this one.

Defense should rule the roost here, like both QBs to throw at least one interception and probably worth taking D/ST TD as well. Unders. I hope the Jets win but I won’t back against the Steelers any more this year.

Steelers have the motivational edge, a win could get them in the playoffs.

A defensive/ST TD to be scored – Yes – 9/4 (Bet365) It’s on Score props rather than player props on there.

That covers both teams, you can go individual teams with the Steelers at 9/2 and the Jets at 11/2 on Ladbrokes.

Lions +7 @ Broncos: 38

Shit shit shit.

Lions are poor with David Blough at QB, he does like targeting Danny Amendola though. They could welcome back Kerryon Johnson though which should help their running game. He’s been activated and if officially available at least.

The Broncos haven’t looked terrible with Drew Lock, last week in the snow was poor but is hard to judge due to the weather. He likes Noah fant who is questionable and Courtland Sutton was wrongly snubbed for a probowl call this week, he’s got a big future in the league.

Broncos win, nowt on’t spread.

Raiders +7.5 @ Chargers: 45.5

Raiders lost their last home game last week, this will probably be as loud as that one was, I’d imagine it’ll be 80% Raiders at minimum. They were awful in the second half last week but got screwed on one call which changed the game. They may have Hunter Renfrow back who will eat into Darren Wallers targets if he’s around. Josh Jacobs misses out for them so you’re looking to Deandre Washington in the run game.

It’s probably Philip Rivers last home game as a Charger which is sad. He’s been great through his career and while his action is less than standard it’s still entertaining on a weekly basis, but he’s been poor this year and was responsible for 4 of his teams 7 turnovers last week. He’s got weapons, Gordon and Ekeler in the run game and Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in the passing game. Williams has had a lot of yards this year with few TDs, Allen always has a lot of yards.

Bah, Chargers win? I think you either take the Raiders to cover the spread of the Chargers to win by 15-20.

Cardinals +9 @ Seahawks: 51

The Cardinals are feisty. They’ve been surprisingly good this year and a lot of fun to watch in general. Kyler Murray for me, is going to be OROY. QBs are always more likely to get it than any other position so I think it will be him. He’s been good anyway. 17:10 and over 500 yards on the ground with generally a random WR bunch each week as well. It does help that he’s got an NFL top 100 WR on his roster though. Kenyan Drake ran for 4 TDs last week, I doubt that will happen in this one.

The Seahawks are somehow the #1 seed in the NFC. They’ve not been great especially at home and while they’re 11-3 they’ve only got a +26 point differential. They win close games is basically what I’m saying. Chris Carson should have another good game as should Jacob Hollister as the Cardinals are terrible vs the TE. Tyler Lockett is consistently efficient and DK Metcalf is a big fella. Expect either Malik Turner or David Moore to have a TD in this one as well.

Seahawks win, Cards cover. Overs.

Jacob Hollister anytime – 2/1 (Hills/Lads)

Cowboys -2.5 @ Eagles: 46

A big game in the NFC East. Neither of these teams are making a wildcard spot so they need to win the division to make the post-season. The Cowboys have a slight lead in the race and if they win this they’re in the playoffs. If the Eagles win out they’re in. If the Eagles win, lose next week and the Cowboys win next week they’ll be in.

The Cowboys are a tough one to judge, they’re great in the stats especially offensively but have slipped up regularly this season hence the old 7-7 record they’re stuck with. They’ve been able to beat up on teams with a winning record but last week was their first victory against a team with a winning record and in fairness was one of the biggest spots they’ve had all season.

Anyway, Dak has a shoulder injury he’s going to play but it remains to be seen whether he’ll be limited or not. I would expect them to try and run the ball a lot as that’s what worked last week and removes strain on Dak. Zeke and Pollard both topped 100 yards on the ground vs the Rams. The passing attack struggled last week, probably due to the Dak injury, Gallup, Cooper and Cobb all disappointed and will need to bounce back. Cooper seems to be playing injured but has great games vs the Eagles in general.

The Eagles are a tough one to judge as well. They’ve barely won a game comfortably all year but always seem to get it done in clutch moments. They’re beaten up on offense though with Agholor and Jeffery out again. So it will likely be a lot of Ertz and Goedert again with Greg Ward Jnr. getting mixed in, he went over his line easily last week but a lot was on the final game-winning drive, in fact he was the only WR to catch a pass last week. The run game is the more interesting part of the team though, Miles Sanders has looked great since getting the backfield pretty much to himself, 170+ yards and a rush and rec. TD for him last week. Boston Scott has looked good as the change of pace back too.

I’ve got to take the Cowboys to win and cover, I think we’ll go over the total as well, neither defense has been great recently. Greg Ward o44.5 receiving yards – 5/6 (Skybet)

Chiefs -6 @ Bears: 44.5

The Chiefs need to keep up their winning to try and get the bye week and I expect them to do that this week. They’ve been in good form recently and Mahomes performance in the snow was really impressive. They’re finally getting fit and the 3 main men playing together for the first time this season. ‘Homes, Hill and Kelce. If they could figure out their run game it would be tough to stop them. They should welcome back Damien Williams this week, he’s been trending that way and is probably the best back they’ve got at the moment. I’ve not got much to say about the Chiefs to be honest.

The Bears missed the playoffs, as expected by me. They actually seem to have got their offense moving finally but too late. It goes mainly through Allen Robinson and recently Anthony Miller, both went over 100 yards last week and are targeted double digit times per game, 14 and 15 respectively last week. The run game with Montgomery stinks, I backed him pre-season to top 765 rushing yards and he’s about 50 off that so he should make it but it’s not been pretty.

The Chiefs defense is actually pretty good now, ranking at 11th on DVOA and is better vs the pass so they should slow the meagre Bears attack.

Chiefs win, lean to them covering the spread.

Summary

Player Props

  • Kareem Hunt o28.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (365)
  • Greg Ward o44.5 receiving yards – 5/6 (Skybet)

TD Scorers

  • Darius Slayton anytime – 5/2 (Betfred)
  • Darius Slayton 2 or more – 16/1 (Skybet)
  • Jacob Hollister anytime – 2/1 (Hills/Lads)
  • Marlon Mack anytime – 10/11 (Betfair)
  • Josh Hill anytime – 8/1 (Skybet)
  • A defensive/ST TD to be scored in the Steelers v Jets game – Yes9/4 (Bet365)

That’ll do. There’s a lot of stuff missing on sites at the moment, poor showing from them tbh.

It’s Championship week in Fantasy, I only made one where I’m currently taking down Louis Ross for nothing more than pride. But if you’re dead in season long fantasy why not try Draftkings one-day fantasy football.

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Good Luck with whatever you’re on this week! Next week will be even tougher to call!

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