Story of my betting season continued on Thursday night tipping up Burton o24.5 (365 and Hills had 29.5 so it was a good line) for him to finish on 24 yards. Of course.
I actually thought last weekend was more of a disaster than it was, finishing less than a point down on the bets as the props pulled through in the end. Still in a bit of a funk but not as bad I was expecting.
Not good. Not at all, but not terrible.
A little warning if you have notifications on for me on twitter. It might be sensible to run them off after 9pm UK time. there may well be a whole lot of tweets about the Bengals v Steelers game. Largely swear-word infested and more than likely offensive to the Steelers.
(2-6) Texans +4 @ Browns (5-3): 45.5
The total has dropped here as reports of it being a bit blow-y, according to nflweather.com “57f Rain and Dangerously Windy” So after seeing the farce against the Raiders a couple of weeks back you’ve got to expect this to be a low-scoring affair and lean to the better run game.
That’s undoubtedly the Browns with Nick Chubb back for this one against one of the worst run defenses in the league, ranked 28th according to DVOA. This could be a 300+ rush yard game for the Browns and is basically all the preview I need for it. Baker is playing after a Covid contact scare, Hooper returns and “star” guard Wyatt Teller should be back as well. It puts me off any line on the pass catchers which is annoying as Rashard Higgins is a decent price on Draftkings again and in good weather would get decent targets.
The Texans are without David Johnson with concussion so it looks like former Brown Duke Johnson will get a chance to show he can be a proper running back rather than just a pass catcher, but the Texans run game hasn’t been good all year. Deshaun Watson is the best QB in this game and Fuller, Cooks and to an extent Randall Cobb have done pretty well. Again, after seeing the Raiders v Browns wind affected game, it worries me on any passing.
Browns win and cover.
(1-7) Jagaurs +14 @ Packers (6-2): 47.5
Blustery in Wisconsin too, just above freezing, near 30mph wind and possible drizzle. Got to love November football.
The Jaguars almost pulled off a late comeback against the Texans last week with rookie Jake Luton running in a TD with a minute left before fluffing the 2-point attempt. He was better than I expected but made familiar rookie mistakes as well. Some big plays, some stupid stuff. DJ Chark had a decent game, but they lost Laviska Shenault and he’ll miss out this week. They were shallow at WR and now shallower. James Robinson is the only player you can really consider for any bets in this one, 66.5 looks a decent line to go over after 25 carries for 99 yards last week, should be a run heavy game and the Packers run D isn’t great.
The Packers are fairly easy to diagnose, Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams and Davante Adams pretty much the only guys worth mentioning. Jones returns after injury and it should be a gameplan to get him yards (69.5 his line) Williams has done well in his place but I’d expect the run game to go back to what it was before the injury. Davante Adams will get double digit targets, catch 10 for 112 and a TD. I’m not sure why teams aren’t triple teaming him as he’s the only real target in the passing game, although Allen Lazard may be back. MVS will get a couple of deep shots, and that’s the Packers.
Green Bay win, obviously. Can’t take them at 2 TDs, but they’ll be around there.
(3-4-1) Eagles -4 @ Giants (3-6): 44.5
An exhilarating NFC East clash with implications at the top of that mighty division. This is the second time they’ll have played in a few weeks, the Eagles won that by a point, the old ‘Daniel Jones killed by Turf monster’ game
A win for the Eagles moves them further ahead at the top and they should get it here as they finally have players returning from injury. The offensive line will be better with Lane Johnson and Jack Driscoll back while Miles Sanders and Alshon Jeffery add to their offensive pieces. They have been killed with injuries this year so it’s some over-due good news. Sanders is obviously the big name here as the run game hasn’t been great. It remains to be seen what they do with Jeffery as they were trying to trade him over the summer, but they are short at pass catcher. Dallas Goedert returns to bolster the TE position.
Daniel Jones has 5 career wins, 4 of them against Washington. He’s exciting but a bit of a rollercoaster, good on the ground, hit and miss through the air. Sterling Shepard has been his favourite target when playing with 4 of his 5 games this year at least 6 receptions. Evan Engram f inally caught a TD last week, he’s been frustrating this year while I remain convinced Darius Slayton will have a 2 TD game at some point this season. Golden Tate is officially questionable. He’s pissed off with them, they are with him, Austin Mack got the ball last week in his place, I don’t know whether Tate plays this week. They finally got a bit of a run game with the mighty Wayne Gallman and Alfred Morris partnership going well last week.
Eagles win, probably cover, total will be around that mark.
Sterling Shepard o3.5 receptions – 1.66 (365/Skybet)
Bucs -6 @ Panthers: 51 (Sky)
The very definition of bounce-back spot after the Bucs got embarrassed in front of everyone on Sunday night by the Saints. It was a shambles from the Bucs and you’ve got to think they’ll be wanting to punish the Panthers here. It should be an interesting match as the Panthers have been far better than expected.
Tom Brady will have more time to throw in this one facing a lesser pass rush, they’ve got talent all over and if he gets time to find a man he usually will. I said last week the issue with backing individuals is that Brady spreads the ball around so you’re never sure where it’s going. Godwin looks like he’ll be back so that’s even more talent to get the ball to, Godwin, Evans, Brown is a heck of a lineup on paper. Gronk had been scoring well too to add that to their game. On paper this should be a canter.
The Panthers had Christian McCaffrey back for a game. He’s out again though with a shoulder injury so back to Mike Davis, although probably not for DFS against one of the best run defenses in the league. I think that’ll mean a more pass happy offense for the Panthers who have got Anderson, Moore and Samuel putting up numbers each week. It looks like Andersons’ line has caught up with him at 74.5 now, although he’s still firmly the #1.
The Panthers were very aggressive against the Chiefs last week and nearly got the win, if they do the same with fake punts, 4th down conversions then they’ll at least put up points.
Buccs win, probably cover, lean over the total.
(2-6) Washington +3 @ Lions (3-5): 46
Was Wash +4.5, now only +3. I’d lean to the Lions at that line
Washington will be starting Alex Smith who looked decent in relief of Kyle Allen last week. He put up the yards but threw some killer interceptions for them to lose the game. He likes to target JD McKissic who seems to be getting far too much 3rd down play ahead of Antonio Gibson. 30 receptions in the last 5 weeks for JD. Terry McLaurin the only person of note in their passing game although Logan Thomas the tight end gets the odd TD.
The Lions should have Stafford who doesn’t have an injury designation but will be without Kenny Golladay and numbers are significantly lower without him. Marvin Jones becomes the one, then you’re looking at varied average guys like Marvin Hall, Danny Amendola, Quintez Cephus. Amendola o3.5 receptions looks a decent bet with the lack of other options. TJ Hockenson should play through a toe injury but is officially questionable. The running game is frustrating for bettors as they insist on using everyone, Swift, Peterson and Kerryon. They’ve improved defensively but aren’t great.
Not a game many will be interested in. Nothing confident from me, but lean to the Lions winning especially with it being just a FG.
(7-2) Bills +2.5 @ Cardinals (5-3): 56.5 (Sky)
The Bills bounced back with a good performance against an historically bad defense last week. It was an impressive win as Josh Allen dealt fairly easily with the constant blitzes by the Seahawks; although he was sacked 7 times he tore them apart down the field. 31 of 38 for 415 yards and 3 TDs. It came after a few quiet weeks, but they face a better D this week. He’s shown he can do it through the air and on the ground so should be able to put up numbers. Vegas definitely think he will with this total.
Stefon Diggs leads the league in receptions and yards this season but struggles to find the endzone, he’s had at least 6 receptions in all bar 1 game this year despite facing the best coverage. Safe to say he’s fitted in well with the Bills. They finally properly welcomed back John Brown last week after his injuries catching 8 of his 11 targets and looking good. Quite happy to take o3.5 receptions for him here. Those two and Cole Beasley are a good 3, then chuck in Gabriel Davis too and it’s arguably up there with the Bucs for the best 4 in the league.
The running game has looked good with Zack Moss seemingly stepping forward to a more involved role, he’s a more prototypical shape for an RB than Devin Singletary and has had a few redzone carries which used to go to Josh Allen. He actually leads the team in RZ carries with 3 scores from 17 attempts.
The Cardinals want to be a similar team to the Bills and may well turn into that in a year or two. They’ve got a top WR in Hopkins, Christian Kirk is proving himself good and Larry Fitzgerald is doing well in the slot, as well as a couple of viable options at RB with Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds. It’s all there for them to improve as the season goes on and into next year.
Kyler Murray is one of the more exciting QBs in the league and certainly the most electric on the ground with Lamar struggling a little. His explosiveness in short distance is second to none and he’s rushed a TD in every game but one this year, including last week where he topped 100 yards on the ground against the Dolphins. It was his best passing game as well with a QBR or 96, 21 from 26 for 283 and 3 TDs.
Hopkins’ targets have dropped in recent weeks with Kirk getting back to health but he’s an important part of the passing game as he frees things up for others, Kirk has scored in each of their last 3 games with double TDs in 2 of them. Larry Fitz gets his, but nothing much exciting there, or at the Tight end position.
Should be a lot of points in this one, but it’s the highest line of the week so it’s tough to take the over. – No bet on the spread but I think the Bills win and take another step towards the AFC East title.
John Brown o3.5 receptions – 1.73 (Skybet)
(3-5) Broncos +3.5 @ Raiders (5-3): 50.5
Lovely preview there.
Should be high scoring, I like the Raiders to cover now that the spread has come down.
(2-6) Chargers +1.5 @ Dolphins (5-3): 48.5
Battle of the rookies. Surely the Chargers finally get the win?!
(2-5-1) Bengals +7.5 @ Steelers (8-0): 46
I have no interest in this game.
As a Bengals fan this is the first game you look for when the schedule is released, whether it’s correctly defined as a rivalry when one team has been so utterly dominant over the other is something I don’t want to get into, for the Bengals it’s their rivalry game. The history is long, from the Steelers hitting low, hitting blind or hitting knees to take out players in key games to the Burfict and Pacman incident a few years ago which some blame for Antonio Brown being completely fucking mental. There’s a fantastic history of this matchup on Full10yards so I’ll defer to Sean for more info on it.
This year I honestly think it could be a turning of the tide. I’ve watched every minute of Joe Burrows’ career so far and he’s improved every week. He’s taken a ton of punishment behind a porous offensive line but barely missed a snap and his pocket movement has got better through every game. He seemed to be locking on to AJ Green early in the season but that’s gone away and it’s made the team better as he finds the open man more often than not. – The offensive line had its best game of the season with 4 of 5 starters out against the Colts, Spain has come in and looked like a beast, but tonight will be a much stiffer test.
Tee Higgins, the 2nd round pick looks like he’s the one and his connection with Burrow will hopefully be there for years to come for the team, he’s had at least 62 yards in his last 5 games and has a long of at least 24 yards in each of them, he’s the outside threat and he’s making that position firmly his. AJ Green seems to be getting more in the slot now and Pitt colleges’ Tyler Boyd has been one of the best slot receivers in the league since he joined the Bengals, on target for another 1,000 yard season.
They don’t get a whole lot from the tight ends since CJ Uzomah went out with injury, Drew Sample can catch passes but it’s not really his role.
Joe Mixon is once again out with a foot injury, that’s a month now and they’ve been annoyingly quiet with it. It’s frustrating as a fan but we’re not making the playoffs, so I guess you make sure he’s fully fit before bringing him back? It means Gio Bernard is the RB again, and in fairness he’s better at picking up the blitz, something he’ll have to do a lot in this one.
They’re actually better than most realise on defense, Jessie Bates has re-found his form and PFF has him ranked among the best safeties in the league. They do give up drives in the 2 minute drill which is immensely frustrating but overall it’s not been terrible.
The Steelers have the best pass rush in the league and that may well be the reason they win tonight. They should have their way with the Bengals offensive line and it could be a long night for Burrow. TJ Watt has a tackle in every game of his career and the Steelers are close to setting a record for consecutive games with a sack. It puts QBs under pressure and meshes well with their good secondary.
Personally I haven’t been impressed with them on offense, I don’t think Ben is playing as well as most of the NFL cog-ni-cent-eeeeeeee seem to make out, and he did his usual “I’m injured, but i’m a fucking hero so i’ll play through it” routine against the Cowboys last week. He actually played better after “injuring” his knees in that one. He’ll probably throw 3 TDs in this one, but I think a couple of INTs are on the way too.
James Conner has been adequate behind one of the best offensive lines in the league 520 yards, 5 TDs on the ground at 4.4 per carry. That’s about what you’d want really. He keeps the chains moving, just not THAT explosive. They’ve been bringing in Snell a lot in goal-line positions and Anthony McFarland got a bit of the ball last week in their training game against the Cowboys last week.
The passing game has targets, it’s fairly obvious I don’t rate Juju too highly, he just hasn’t really done it as the one, again I’d expect him to do well tonight, he tends to do well against us, but Diontae Johnson is the most targeted player and usually finds the most separation against his opponent. Chase “Better than Jerry Rice” Claypool has had big games with Johnson out of the game and James Washington occasionally does stuff.
Eric Ebron has scored two weeks in a row now.
The Steelers tend to have a dud game every season where they dramatically under-perform, that was last week and I don’t think it will happen again. This game will be won up front, if the Bengals get a decent amount of protection for Burrow then he will move the chains, if not then we’re fucked. It sounds stupid as the Steelers have put up nearly 30 points a game, but I’m not overly worried about their offense.
I’m trying to watch my words here as I know full well it will bite me in the arse, but while I think the Steelers win and go to 9-0, I do think Joey B’s Bengals will keep it close.
Steelers win, Bengals cover, lean to the over, cry.
(6-2) Seahawks +3 @ Rams (5-3): 54.5
An NFC West clash which could have big implications on who wins that division, the Seahawks are top at the moment, but could be down to third with a loss here. The Seahawks are on target to be the worst defense in NFL history in terms of yards allowed, if they carry on as they are they’d allow 500 yards more than ANY TEAM has ever allowed over a season.
It makes for entertaining games at the very least, the likes of their game agianst the Bills last week for example, a 34-44 final score, and they’ve averaged 34 points per game for themselves while allowing just over 30 points to their opponents. They blitzed the hell out of Josh Allen last week, recorded 7 sacks but were torn apart as they left players open downfield, will be interesting to see where they go this week.
DK Metcalf is a beast, basically unguardable at least once or twice a game, he’ll get his, Tyler Lockett was disappointing in a good matchup last week but can put up big games, the tight end position is muddled with Olsen, Hollister and Dissly all getting involved.
Running back is down to Deejay Dallas who has 3 TDs in two games and Travis Homer who’s more of a pass catcher.
The Rams are coming off their bye week after Jared Goff got fucked up by the Dolphins pass rush. Goff just doesn’t deal with pressure very well so that will be the key here, and his offensive line has been pretty good for the majority of the season.
They should welcome Darrell Henderson back to further muddy the RB position with Malcolm Brown and Cam Akers who apparently they’ve said they want to give more touches. It makes it tough to judge much there
Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods will obviously get theirs as they do every week, theoretically both of them should have big games against this defense, I like Bobby Trees to get a score this week though, he gets the outside targets and they’ve used him a few times on Jet sweeps at the goal line. Higbee and Everett are a good TE duo, Everett has the slightly lower yardage line.
An interesting game which I think revolves around how much protection Goff gets. McVay has a good record against the Seahawks and are at home so I’d lean their way and probably overs, you can’t really say unders on Seahawks games this year.
(4-5) 49ers +10 @ Saints (6-2): 49.5
The poor 49ers. Injuries have killed them this year, they’re without Deebo, Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert once more for this one, but have their WRs back at least after they got screwed over by Covid protocols last time they played.
They’ve said they’ll give Jerrick McKinnon “significant touches” now that he’s recovered from his “tired legs” so if you believe that then there’s some good lines available for him tonight, but I don’t trust Shanahan one bit so I’ll porbbaly be staying off him with Hasty the other possibility in the run game.
Brandon Aiyuk and Kendrick Bourne will be back, and they’ve done well getting Aiyuk the ball, he’s a YAC monster and has shown it well, Bourne a little ineffective this year after a string of TDs at the end of last season, Richie James put up big yards last week and Jordan Reed is another 10 days healthier at TE, always one to look for in the TD market when he plays, he should get more touches than Ross Dwelley.
The Saints dominated the Bucs to take control of the NFC South late last Sunday, I don’t think it will be as controlling a performance this week in a game which doesn’t mean as much against a team who are severely beaten up.
They are back to near full health with Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders expected to both play, a nice revenge game for Sanders here.
Alvin Kamara has been brilliant but off the boil in terms of TDs in recent weeks having only scored once in their last 4 games. He’s put up big yardage every week just a weird quirk that he’s not been finding the endzone, they do like to use the tight ends when they get close to the line. Could be a good time to look under on his yards as they now have viable other targets for the first time all season.
The Saints are a pain to pick for anytime TDs actually, while not over-flowing with talent they do spread the ball around a lot, Cook, Hill, Hill, Smith, Callaway all randoms who have scored this year.
Saints win, won’t touch the spread, although they should cover. Nothing on total.
(6-2) Ravens -7 @ Patriots (3-5): 43.5
You’ve got to love seeing the Patriots as a TD underdog in Foxborough, it’s probably near 2 decades since this kind of spread has been seen in the North East of the country… November 18th, 2001 they were 8.5 point underdogs to the Rams according to the amazing Oddsshark.com football database.
The line is probably too skinny though, I think the Ravens could run all over the Patriots here. They match up very well and should be able to do whatever they want, they might even be able to complete more than 20 passes in a game if they want. They really struggled for a half against the Colts last week but ended up winning very comfortably after half time.
I’m not sure they will want to, to be honest, it would be nice to get Lamar Jackson a bit of practise throwing the ball, but why bother when you’re against the 31st run defense in the league and that’s your speciality then just go with that. Mark Ingram looks like he’ll be back, so you’re looking at Ingram, Dobbins and Edwards all back for once.
Marquise Brown complained about not being targeted in the passing game, then promptly dropped a easy catch last week, that was funny. The tight ends still get a lot of targets, Nick Boyle led the team in yards last week. Basically don’t touch the passing game for bets.
The Patriots are a stinking mess. They’ve got so little talent on both sides of the ball it’s no real surprise to see them struggling this much.
Cam Newton started well for them running the ball with the odd pass, but the loss of Edelman and basically all their tight ends leaves them so talent poor that they struggle to get much going.
Jacobi Meyers will likely be the most targeted player for them after catching 12 of his 14 targets against the Jets last week. Then you’re looking at the likes of Damiere Byrd, Jakob Johnson and Ryan Izzo is he plays.
The run game is a little more settled and where they need to concentrate with Damien Harris, James White and Rex Burkhead all chipping in with yards, Harris the main runner though.
That’s more than enough on the Patriots offense. I’d be surprised if they top 14 points against a very good Ravens defense.
Ravens win and cover.
Summary
Spread
- Browns -4
- Ravens -7
- Eagles -4
Player props
- Sterling Shepard o3.5 receptions – 1.66 (365/Skybet)
- John Brown o3.5 receptions – 1.71 (365)
TD scorers
- Nick Chubb anytime – 2.2 (PP)
- Alfred Morris (Giants) – 8.00 (365) – half stake
- Foster Moreau – 17.00 (WillHill) – half stake
- Troymaine Pope – 5.5 (Paddypower)
Few random long-shots for TDs. Morris has been getting carries, Moreau seems to score every 4 or 5 games, and Pope is back for the Chargers after getting a ton of touches 2 weeks ago.
Good Luck with whatever you’re on this week.
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