My run of shit luck continues, Kyler Murray got injured early on in the Cardinals game and played conservative after that, no running which is a huge part of his game, so the Cardinals offense was largely limited for a lot of that game. The Seahawks went more ground based, which I kind of said but didn’t pay attention to myself, it meant Russ didn’t have to force things.
And then yesterday the Cincinnati Bearcats won to go to 9-0, failed to cover the spread. Of course.
If you collect NFL memorabilia or merch then check out Tailgate Traders for equipment I got my mini-helmet case from them for a decent price and it looks awesome. Arrived quickly too.
On to Sunday night.
Lions -1.5 @ Panthers: 46.5
Injury game here, so tough to judge. Matthew Stafford has a partial ligament tear in the thumb of his throwing hand, that’s never good but he’s hardcore so he’ll play through it. Kenny Golladay, Danny Amendola and most frustratingly after he’d been given the starting RB role, D’Andre Swift is out with concussion. So I’d imagine Adrian Peterson gets the starting job with Kerryon Johnson mixing in. Marvin Jones will likely leads the passing game after he had his best game of the season last week with 96 and a TD. It definitely shallows their pass-catching group though, Marvin Hall scored last week, Quintez Cephus will have to step up and TJ Hockenson needs to bounce back. The Panthers D gives up a lot of points so there should be points to go around.
The Panthers are on to their backup QB so PJ Walker will be starting for them, he would have been the XFL MVP had the season been completed, but this is different, he didn’t look great when he came in against the Falcons but it was shitty weather. He played under HC Matt Rhule in college and had Robby Anderson as one of his receivers there, so that bodes well for him. DJ Moore has been the better receiver in recent weeks, Ian Thomas has a few targets and they have been using Curtis Samuel in the run game as well as receiving. Oh yeah, Mike Davis will be the RB, should have a good game against a poor Lions D ranked 27th vs the run.
Davis has o3.5 receptions in 7 of his 9 games this year – Davis 3.5 receptions – 1.62 (365)
Nothing on spread or total for this one, too many unknowns for me.
Patriots -2.5 @ Texans: 49
The Pats ran all over the Ravens last weekend in a game I saw no way for them to win and they should employ the same game plan against the Texans terrible run defense, that should have meant a lot for Damien Harris but they activated Sony Michel yesterday so keep an eye on team news in case he’s on the roster. Harris should have a big game if he’s not. Rex Burkhead got the goal-line work and Cam Newton has a habit of running them in so it’s tough to take Harris TD, but 64.5 is an over should Michel not play. Their passing game is shit, Jacobi Meyers the main target now has 31 targets in the last 3 weeks and at least 5 receptions in each game, at least 58 yards in each game he’s been involved properly in.
Remarakbly the Patriots have the worst ranked defense according to DVOA, 30th vs the pass, 31st vs the run.
The Texans are a weird team, I think they should win here, but they’ve got no run game, even before David Johnson went out. Duke Johnson get’s the full load now but he’s average, he had 54 yards as the main man last week, only 1 target which should be a big part of his game although the weather was terrible. Cooks, Fuller and Cobb have given Deshaun Watson more options, Cooks and Fuller both having decent seasons and managing to stay healthy, this is a Cooks revenge game after a season in NE.
Deshaun Watson has at least 26 rushing yards in his last 4 games, his line is 25.5. It will be close.
I lean the Texans covering and overs, defenses are terrible but the worry would be that it could be a slow game with a lot of running.
Titans +6 @ Ravens: 50
Do the Ravens bounce back? I don’t rate the Titans, the Bengals beat the Titans. I think their record is false, but the Ravens haven’t played well and they match up well with their run game vs a weakened Ravens run D. Lamar actually played pretty well in the monsoon in NE.
Probably a lot of rushing in this one, Henry looking to make it 4 games in a row with 75+ yards and a TD vs. the AFC North, Ingram looking to make it 3 in a row vs. AFC South teams.
Lean Ravens bouncing back, nothing on total.
D’Onta Foreman – 12/1 (PP/Betfair)
Eagles +2.5 @ Browns: 47
It’s an NFC East team taking on someone from a different division, they shouldn’t win. The Eagles have a lot of players on their second game back from injury and were absolute garbage vs. the Giants last week. Miles Sanders should get more of the ball than he does, he’s had 75+ scrimmage yards in 6 games in a row and only he and Nick Chubb have over 5 yards per carry, but they seem determined to use an RBBC there. Jeffrey was back and did nothing, Goedert back, 4 receptions but basically did nothing. I’ve got to expect both get more targets this week. They’re not insprising.
The Browns welcomed back Nick Chubb and he did what he does, he’s probably the best pure rusher in the league although stepping out at the 1 yard line to guarantee his team the win really fucked me over. Kareem Hunt has better games with Chubb in the team. We’ve yet to see their passing game without Beckham due to terrible weather games in Cleveland and this game marks a month since they had to play on the road. I think Higgins will be the WR2 behind Landry and led the team in yards last week but it could be more for Hooper, I don’t know.
over 70.5 is probably a good line for Chubb he averages 120 at home this year. I like Dallas Goedert o3.5 receptions – 1.71 (365)
Now that it’s dropped below 3 I like the Browns. It may well kill me again, but I’ve got to go that side. Check the weather for the total.
Falcons +3.5 @ Saints: 49
Best game of the early slate see these NFC South teams take each other on.
The Saints are without Drew Brees, the little pussy doesn’t want to play through 11 cracker ribs and a punctured lung, so he’s on IR for at least 3 weeks, most thought that would mean Jameis Winston starting, but we get to see Taysom Hill, a mean with 18 pass attempts in his entire career. I guess they paid him a fortune so they want to see whether he can actually throw the ball, OR we’re going to see a fucking crazy wildcat game-plan all game and something truly interesting.
It makes the pass catchers practically impossible to judge. I guess Kamara will lead in targets and a lot of Michael Thomas, but who knows. We do know Josh Hill is out, so Adam Trautmann probably gets more snaps, he scored last week. Basically I can’t talk any more about their offense. I just don’t know.
The Falcons have been a lot better defensively since Bill O’Brien left and they probably should have won all the games they’ve played since then. Matt Ryan does what he does, and they should have Calvin Ridley back tonight to add to their receiving talent, he’s the usual TD threat for them. Julio is great and Hayden Hurst is one of the more reliable TEs in regards to receptions (not tough, the position is a mess this year) with at least 4 in his last 4 games. Todd Gurley somehow leads the league in rushing TDs, not worth taking him on yardage or carries, averaging 3.7 ypc, but he keeps on scoring (7 of 9 games), so over evens for him (PP) is tempting.
Too many unknowns here, but you’d have to lean to the Falcons covering and over on the total.
Hayden Hurst o3.5 – 1.86, Todd Gurley anytime – 2.1 (PP)
Bengals +1 @ Football Team: 47
The Bengals are 2-2-1 out of division with wins against the Jags and Titans and a tie vs the Eagles, close losses to the Colts and Chargers. They’ve not played the other NFC East teams yet and while I don’t expect too much they NEED to get at least 3 more wins this season for Taylor to keep his job (imo) – To me, that bodes well for this game, however. They are facing a very good pass rush and that’s been a big issues for the Bengals this year.
The offensive line hasn’t been as terrible recently and Joe Burrow is learning game on game, he was poor in the second half last week and owned up to that, it won’t happen again. His favourite target is Tee Higgins but his lines have caught up with him now, 71.5 and 24.5 for longest rec. AJ Green has caught fewer than 50% of his targets this year, 31 from 68, Tyler Boyd still gets a lot of receptions, I think we need to give Auden Tate more time tbh. Joe Mixon misses out again and is now on IR, so that’s Gio for at least 3 more weeks.
Redski football team have been OK recently with Alex Smith leading the league in passing yards over the last fortnight, 390 for him last week, a lot of them to JD McKissic the “running back” who has 29 targets in that time. 16 receptions… Antonio Gibson has looked good too as an actual running back and found the endzone twice last week to take him to 7 on the season while Terry McLaurin should have a big game against back up corners, he’s had 6 games with 7 or more receptions this year and is aiming for his 3rd game in a row with 90+, 7+ receptions and a TD. His line is 76.5. Logan Thomas should do something too.
I’ve no idea which way this game finishes. It’s AFC North vs NFC East, so that’s an obvious lean, but the pass rush vs the O-Line and the Bengals so beaten up on defense…. I think it will be high scoring, lean over the total.
Steelers -10.5 @ Jaguars: 46
It’s been fun watching Steelers fans searching for something to moan about, this week was Big Ben not being mentioned in the MVP race. You’re 9-0, get over it. Big Ben hasn’t been the reason for that and could/should have had double-digit INTs this year, including one last week. He was good (lowest completion % of the season) in terrible weather last week behind a great offensive line under no pressure throwing against practise squad CBs. Well done him. I mean woe is me, we’re at 9-0 ranked 2nd in most rankings but noooo we’re not getting enough respect. Suck it up you freaks.
Steelers win, wouldn’t take the spread as it’s a huge look-ahead spot with the Ravens on Thanksgiving night. Lean under the total as they won’t need/want to push it.
Jets +9.5 @ Chargers: 46.5
The Jets showed signs of life last week with Flacco at QB and having their WR corps how they wanted… Perriman, Mims and Crowder out there for the first time this season. Flacco has an arm on him and can utilise Perriman down the field as his 2 TDs showed, and has just passed Joe Montana in passing yards… I liked Mimsy coming out of the draft and thought the Bengals would get him and he’s showing he’s not bad. 42,42 and 62 yards in his 3 games. The running game stinks, they have said they want to get Perine more of the ball but it’s pretty much irrelevant.
The Chargers lose close games, it’s what they do. They’ve got to hope that Justin Herbert isn’t like Samson now he’s had his hair chopped off. He’s been great since starting for the team but struggled against a good Dolphins D last week, although has at least 2 TD passes in his last 6 games. Keenan Allen had 7 targets last week, he’s aiming for his 4th home game in a row with 9 receptions and 100+ yards. It’s tough to call outside of him. The running game isn’t easy either, it seems like Kalen Ballage is going to get the touches with 18 carries lsat week and 68,69 yards in his two starts for the Chargers.
Chargers win, of course, would take the Jets on the spread though.
Dolphins -3.5 @ Broncos: 46
The Dolphins are the form team of the league with 5 wins in a row, 3 of them with Tua Tagovailoa as starter. It’s not been much to do with him although he’s more reliable and less erratic than Fitzmagic is at QB so fits well with their defense which has been brilliant causing short yardage situations or scoring TDs themselves. It’s been impressive but I’m still not entirely sure it’s going to happen every week. He is limited with who he can throw to in fairness, when Jakeem Grant is leading the team in receptions it’s tough. He does seem to like the TE Durham Smythe though with 2 TDs since Tua took over. They seem able to plug anyone in the run game, Salvon Ahmed scoring his first ever TD last week in his second start.
Drew Lock has been shite, and looks like he’ll be playing injured tonight. QBR ranks him 30th and his 4 INTs last week killed his team, but he does play better at home. Gordon and Lindsay are a decent RB duo, Tim Patrick has at least 4 receptions in 5 of his last 6, Juedy is looking to make it 4 in a row with 65+ rec. yards.
I’ve no enthusiasm for this game. Dolphins should win and cover, but I’m not touching it.
Cowboys +7 @ Vikings: 48.5
Andy Dalton returns for the Cowboys despite still struggling with the after effects of Covid. It should be an upgrade on Garrett Gilbert but he played all right last time. This is another tough one to judge, they’ve still got players on offense, they just haven’t been able to utilise them and their defense has been dogshit.
The Vikings are up there with the Dolphins in terms of form, Dalvin Cook is proving to be the best RB in the league, although somehow didn’t score last week he leads the league with 12 TDs, and 954 rush yards as well as a receiving TD. He should blow up again this week really. Justin Jefferson is getting a lot of buzz for OROY, he leads rookies in rec. yards this year and had his 4th 100 yard game last week. Adam Thielen generally takes the TDs though.
Got to take the Vikings, but the Cowboys are still in with a shot of the NFC East and have been capable of scoring.
Packers +1.5 @ Colts: 51.5
The best game of the late window sees the Packers and the Colts face off in Indy. Both chasing their divisional titles.
I’m struggling to get my head around this one, I don’t really see how the Packers are underdogs despite being on the road, they’ve been the better team for me this year and Aaron Rodgers has been great this year with a passer rating over 100 in 8 of 9 games, and his record vs. Indy is decent too, 7 TDs in 3 starts against them and he’ll do well in a dome after the weather affected the team last week.
Aaron Jones disappointed on return but still had 95 scrimmage yards, half on the ground, half through the air but he shared the load with Jamaal Williams who has been pretty good recently. Davante Adams is the best WR in the league this year averaging just under 9 receptions and over 100 yards per game this year and has 7 TDs in his last 4 games. Marquez Valdes-Scantling had the best game of his career last week with 149 and 2 TDs from just 4 receptions. If he catches one it’s down the field, while Allen Lazard should be back although on a snap count. Robert Tonyan has had big games.
While the Packers haven’t really played anyone this year, the Colts have had the easiest schedule in the league to this date. They have had a few good performances but it seems they need everything to go perfectly to get the results. They rely on their defense which DVOA ranks 4th overall, vs the pass and the rush. Darius Leonard is the key man for them there.
The run game hasn’t been great but if common sense prevails they’ll use Nyheim Hines more after his 115 yards and 2 TDs against the Titans last time out, Taylor has struggled and Jordan Wilkins has been fine. I like Philip Rivers and he’s been all right for most of the year, they do finally have Michael Pittman back and the rookie had 100 yards last week, his 2 in a row with 50+ yards. TY Hilton is as baked as AJ Green. The tight end group has Jack Doyle back so seems at full strength.
If the Colts are genuine Superbowl contenders they’ll need to prove it in this one. Lean to the Packers.
Chiefs -7.5 @ Raiders: 57
REVEEEEEEEEENGE game for the Chiefs as the Raiders gave them their only defeat this season and reportedly drove around the stadium in their bus celebrating after it. It’s Andy Reid coming off a bye week.
Narratives out of the way there.
It’s tough writing about the Chiefs every week really. They’re the best team in the league and rightfully faves for the Superbowl, they’re fairly healthy with no injuries to key players, although Sammy Watkins is out. Kelce is quietly on target for his best season, Hardman has at least 48 yards in 3 in a row, Tyreek has scored 2 in each of their last 2 games and 9 TDs on the season which ties for the league lead in rec. TDs. The run game is good with Clyde scoring 2 in 3 since Bell arrived, but his carries are way down, Bell isn’t exactly the reason but they seem to be saving him for the post-season.
The Raiders had most of their defense on the Covid list during the week, they’re the worst offenders in the league and have already been fined for it. they’re playing this game no matter what happens. Derek Carr has been surprisingly good and targeted players down the field in the first matchup between these two. He’s got one of the better runners in the backfield, Josh Jacobs has 3 games this year with at least 2 TDs including against the Chiefs, he’s had 100+ in 2 of the last 3. The first was Henry Ruggs best game of the season and Agholor has been scoring long TDs as well while Darren Waller has picked up where he finished last year, at least 5 receptions in 7 of 9 games.
Chiefs win and cover. Over on the total.
- Browns -2.5
- Packers +1.5
- Mike Davis o3.5 receptions – 1.61 (365)
- Dallas Goedert o3.5 receptions – 1.71 (365)
- JD McKissic o4.5 receptions – 1.66 (skybet) – 5 points stake.
- Hayden Hurst o3.5 receptions – 1.86 (365)
- Nick Chubb – 1.91 (PP)
- Todd Gurley – 2.1 (PP)
- D’Onta Foreman – 12/1 (PP) – 1 pt
Good luck with your bets today.
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