Things have been a lot more settled this week after the Covid-related issues of the extended week 12. The play-off picture is settling into place now, the Chiefs and Steelers can officially confirm their place this weekend with wins. The AFC has quite a few teams in contention for a playoff spot. It’s looking like Steelers, Bills, Titans, Chiefs as division winners, then Browns, Ravens, Raiders, Colts battling for the other three spots. The Dolphins could make a push for it, they’ve a fairly decent run-in but I don’t think they’re that far this year.
The NFC you’re probably looking at Packers, Saints as division winners. The West is anyone’s due to good teams, the East is anyone’s due to them all being shit. I fancy the Rams and Washington to win them. Then at least one of the other West teams, Bucs, and hopefully Vikings to fill out the playoffs. I like the Vikings for some reason.
I usually get my lines from Bet365, but seeing as they closed my account this weekend I’ll use Redzone for them from now on. They’re especially good for larger bettors, and offer better than the usual 10/11 on most spreads. Get a free £10 when you bet on a £10 double
(2-8-1) Bengals +10.5 @ Dolphins (7-4): 42
The Bengals go to Miami off the back of a defeat against the Giants, probably should have stolen the win at the end but it wasn’t deserved. Brandon Allen proved he’s a backup QB, he couldn’t move the ball until the end of the game and won’t here against 2 very good cornerbacks. Should be looking for Boyd/Sample in the middle of the field where the ‘Fins are weaker. Gio NEEDS to get more of the ball, but they don’t seem to even try and establish the run, he’s had 2 TDs in 2 games against Miami and this Miami team can be got at up the middle (see Frank Gore who had a season high vs. them last week). Defensively the Bengals were fairly solid, a couple of big receptions against them but OK other than that.
I don’t know what to make of the Dolphins, I think they’re largely defense-led which to me seems risky in this league. I thought Fitz would be starting, but it seems like Tua will be a go, I guess it should be good practise against a poor Bengals secondary? I’m not entirely sure what to make of him so far, he’s been a game manager. Apart from Parker they’re quite talent-poor on offense so fair play to them for going as far as they have this year. The Tight ends seem to be used a lot in redzone, Shaheen scored again last week while Smythe caught a few as well. RB is messy if Ahmed misses out again, Gaskin should be back though and he fitted very nicely in the offense earlier in the season. The defense will get to Allen and should cause issues as the Bengals OL isn’t exactly stellar.
Should be enough to bring home the win for the Dolphins, but I can’t touch that spread, especially with Tua there, it’s a lean to Cincy if anything.
(8-3) Browns +5 @ Titans (8-3): 53
Tough to know what to make of the Browns as well really, they’re a fairly contrarian team in this day and age who like to run the ball, a lot. Chubb and Hunt have to be considered the best duo in the league, both of them are over 700 rush yards this season despite Chubb missing a few games. They come on in the latter stages of games as they alternate the backs and keep them fresh. Baker Mayfield finally got a decent matchup not in a hurricane and finished with 19 for 258, half of that to Jarvis Landry. He still managed to get in a wide open endzone miss to make him seem poor though. I think he’s a fine QB, nothing special, but the lack of Titans pressure should help him. Khadarel Hodge and Rashard Higgins are WR2 and 3. Higgins likely to get the more valuable looks. Myles Garrett should be back for them on defense and Tannehill has been hit up the middle a lot this year.
It’s Derrick Henry season (SZN?) – He tends to get hot at this time of the year and did so against the Colts last week who had no answer for him on the ground, putting up 140 yards and 3 TDs in the first half last week to essentially win the game for them, and his presence allowed Tannehill to stroll in for a score as well. He’s looking for his 5th game in a row with 75+ yards and a TD against the AFC North. It’s the dream game-plan for the Titans who establish the run and pass off of it, and Tannehill has been very good at doing just that since taking the reigns at QB there. AJ Brown is another on a streak against the AFC North, looking for 4 in a row with a TD. Corey Davis has been reliable this year although unexplosive in general and the tight ends prove to be matchup nightmares,
Jonnu Smith has 8 total TDs this year. Jonnu has been ruled out, so Firkser might get more targets there.
I think a lot depends on who gets the lead in this one. Should be a whole lot of rush yards either way. Honestly nothing on the spread, could see if going either way. Lean under on the total with it probably being so run-heavy, but Henry can fuck up all plans
(4-7) Lions +3 @ Bears (5-6): 45
The Lions finally let Matt Patricia go, that’s got to be a bounce of the Lions after a dismal loss on thanksgiving. They have been hit with injuries, and it doesn’t look like Golladay or Okudah make it back this week, but Amendola should be, for what it’s worth. D’Andre Swift should return, he’s cleared concussion protocol but was off training due to illness this week and it looks like if he does play he’ll be limited. He makes them instantly more exciting although Adrian Peterson went to third in the list of 2 TD games, with 27 in his career. TJ Hockenson will likely be most targeted and Marvin Jones will get some good looks too. I’d imagine. Always tough to tell with new coaching.
Matt Nagy isn’t a great coach, but he’s beaten the Lions every time these teams have met. He had Mitch back at QB last week which at least got them a few garbage time points, and David Montgomery was back plodding along on the ground last week too. Allen Robinson is great, and is one of 4 players with 70 receptions on the year, he scored twice with Mitch back last week and should have a good game against a batter secondary. The Bears defense is their strength though and should cause issues for the Lions.
I lean to the Lions, but I think that’s more my dislike of the Bears than anything else. If there’s a new coach bump then that could be enough for the Lions to win. Lean that way and I guess under, but it’s a low line. Bears games are 4-7 to the unders this year. Bears to win 4th quarter is probably sensible, but again, new coaching for the Lions muddles trends
(7-4) Colts -3 @ Texans (4-7): 50.5
Jacoby Brissett keeps getting rushing TDs, 3 in his last 3 games after 2 last week.
DeForest Buckner has been activated from the Covid list.
The Texans without Will Fuller worry me, he’s been great this year, but misses the rest of the season suspended for PEDs, maybe that’s why he’s finally been able to stay healthy all year so far?
Look for a price on Coulter. (10/1 at 365)
I like the Colts to win and cover, they seem to matchup well with Buckner back
(1-10) Jaguars +10 @ Vikings (5-6): 51
The Jags have lost 10 in a row since a shock win in the opener against the Colts. They gave rookie Jake Luton a couple of starts where he didn’t impress then turned to Mike Glennon last week who did fine, kept them in the game at least, although he should have scrambled for 2 to tie it up at the end, but I think he realised he was Mike Glennon and it was a silly idea. DJ Chark missed last week, so Collin Johnson got some targets and found the endzone for the first time and led the team in targets, catching 4 of 8 for 96 yards (13/2 Hills). Generally backup QBs have a favourite WR3 or 4 as they’re the one they’ve been playing with in training, and it could be double L. Look for a price on him, although Chark returns for this one. James Robinson has been brilliant, probably the best rookie RB this year, 4th in attempts, 3rd in yards (860), although way behind Cook and Henry.
Dalvin Cook is 2nd in attempts and yards with 1,130 yards, nearly 300 ahead of Robinson. He’s got 14 TDs this year and may well have found the endzone last week had he not gone off with what looked like a serious injury. Fortunately it wasn’t and it looks like he’ll be good to go this week, Alexander Mattison won’t be playing and they’ve said they want to lessen Cooks involvement so a punt on Mike Boone probably isn’t stupid (10/1 on Betway). They will have Thielen back after missing last week as he was on the covid list. Justin Jefferson furthered his case for the best rookie WR with 70 yards and 2 TDs from 7 receptions, that took him to 918 yards and 6 TDs on the season (hard to argue he’s there, although I think Higgins has been under-rated) He was one of 4 players with 7 receptions last week, Rudolph, Bisi Johnson and Chad Bebbe the other 3. With Thielen back they’ll probably all just go back to sleep.
Vikings should win, but the Jags were spunky and kept it close last week, on the other side of it Zimmer usually covers spreads, and they tend to either cover by a mile or lose by a mile. The Jags have covered 3 of the last 4 games.
(6-5) Raiders -7.5 @ Jets (0-11): 47
Everything went wrong for the Raiders last week, Carr reached the top of the charts for fumbles as they fell apart against the Falcons. I think you can write that off as a random occurrence, but this is another trip to the East coast for an early start, luckily it’s against the Jets. It meant a bad game for Josh Jacobs who got a knock and has been ruled out for this week so I guess Devontae Booker could be one to watch for this week, 1/2 for a TD is absolutely shocking though, if he gets the Jacobs role, Richard should get the booker role? Ruggs seemed more involved, but it’s been tough to figure who gets the ball between Agholor, him and Renfrow. Darren Waller seems to be the only reliable asset for them. Zay Jones to get a catch? You can get o0.5 rec. yards on 365/Hills – He’s caught a pass in 7 of 11.
The Jets scored 3 points with Sam Darnold back last week, he still found Perriman down the field and Denzel Mims has looked good since starting, 62+ yards in the last three weeks, longs of at least 26 yards in the last 4. Frank Gore got all the carries. Enough.
Raiders win, probably cover, a great teaser leg. Lean unders as the Jets probably won’t score more than 14. If you want to go over the total it’s probably better to take Raiders team total.
Denzel Mims o55.5 rec. yards – 1.83 (Skybet)
(9-2) Saints -3 @ Falcons (4-7): 45.5
The Falcons were on the other end of that Raiders game. They struggled like hell in the redzone early on, but kept being given good field position and eventually made it count. Their game against the Saints two weeks ago was the opposite though, Ryan was on his back more than standing up as they failed to stop anyone getting to him, he was terrible. Julio and Gurley should return after missing last week, Julio says he feels great, he usually has good games against the Saints (averages 111 per game at home vs. NO). The Falcons have been good under Raheem Morris.
The Saints basically had a bye week against QB-less Denver, strolled to the win. Taysom Hill ran in another 2 TDs after 2 after two vs. the Falcons in their matchup. He’s not a great passing QB but the sheer chaos of him works very well and he’s tough to stop in redzone situations. Thomas rightfully seems his favoured target. One noticable thing with Hill is the lack of receiving for Kamara, 1 catch in two games for -2 yards. Latavius Murray seems to be getting more carries on the ground as well since Hill took over 124 for 2 for him last week. Their defense is up to #2 in DVOA now, 2 against the pass and rush.
Surely the bet here is Saints covering the spread. They smashed the Falcons two weeks ago, and basically had a week off. They’ve also won 5 of the last 6 against the Falcons. Lean over.
Murray anytime – 3/1 (Paddypower)
(7-4) Rams -2.5 @ Cardinals (6-5): 47
The Rams lost to Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers, they do that. But they tend to have good records against the other two teams in the NFC West, including the Cardinals with McVay 6-0 against them, and I think they’ve been smashing them iirc from the DeepDive podcast. (a quick check on Oddssharks database, those 6 wins, by – 7,27,22,34,16 and 33 points, including 2 shutouts) Only the first two were against Kilff and Kyler, so while the other lot is impressive it might not be overly significant.
The 49ers defense seems to boggle Goff who has issues against certain D’s, generally when under pressure, the Cards aren’t great at pressuring QBs, so he should be OK in this one. Basically it’s all on Goff, if he’s fine then Woods and Kupp are great, Woods has 7 TDs in 6 road games this year. Surprisingly the Rams have been better away from SoFi this year. Reynolds probably worth a nose on his rec line. The run game is as muddled as ever, Henderson doesn’t look like the one, and Akers had his first rush TD last week and seemed more explosive, Brown is a better pass blocker. Aaron Donald is a best and one of the two best defensive players in the league, is second in the league with 10 sacks, it’s between TJ Watt and him for DPOY.
As with the Rams it all depends on the QB, since Murray injured his shoulder early on against the Seahawks he’s rushed just 10 times for 46 yards and seems to be avoiding contact. He is a decent enough passer but the rushing is such a big part of his game, I don’t think they can win if he doesn’t feel comfortable rushing. Last week against the Pats was the first time this season he didn’t throw or rush for at least 1 TD. Ramsey vs. Hopkins will be an interesting matchup, they’re both alphas and arguably the best at their positions, got to think it’ll be more Kirk and I guess Drake/Edmonds from the backfield. They did get Isabella the ball a bit last week with Fitz out (Fitz may miss this week as well, his age puts him in the at risk category)
The overall history has me leaning to the Rams winning. It’s the circle of the NFC West. Rams beat Cardinals.
(5-6) Giants +11 @ Seahawks (8-3): 47
I’d be surprised if Daniel Jones plays this week, it seemed a fairly serious hamstring injury last week and he couldn’t make a throw without being in pain. The line seems to be suggesting he won’t be playing and Colt McCoy will be there, he was shite. They seem all right Gallman running the ball now, he scored again last week, his 5th game in a row with one. Engram had his best game of the season and has 5+ receptions in 4 of 5 games now, and Sterling Shepard has a similar streak with 5 in 9 of 10 games. All different with McCoy, but worth noting if Jones somehow plays. They’ve been pretty good defensively at least.
It doesn’t matter how good a team is on D, they’re not stopping DK Metcalf this year. He had a career high 177 last week, has 5 games with 100+ yards, and leads the league in receiving yards this year, oh and 8 TDs in their last 6 home games, looking to make it 7 in a row. He’s a fucking beast. Lockett isn’t terrible, but clearly the second option now. Chris Carson returned with a TD last week, he’ll be better another week healthier and helps immensely on offense. Defensively they’ve improved since Carlos Dunlap joined them and are now able to give at least a little pressure finally
Giants are actually tied-2nd behind the Steelers in covers this year with 7. Only 3 overs in their 11 games. Can’t take the Giants with Colt at QB, would lean under.
Sterling Shepard o4.5 receptions – 11/10 (decent price due to McCoy being unable to complete 5 yard passes)
(5-6) Patriots +1.5 @ Chargers (3-8): 48
Line has flipped from Patriots -1 to 1.5
Coaching. The only way the Patriots could have beaten the Cards last week. They were terrible for large parts of the game yet kept their thin playoff hopes alive, and this week is a chasm in terms of coaching mis-matches. Cam isn’t good, their pass catching group is poor, only 3 players caught the ball last week, one of them had minus yards. They’ll want/need to run the ball a lot. James White got the redzone carries last week with Rex Burkhead out, he rushed for 2 TDs while Harris did most of the work between the 20s and Sony Michel may get the ball this week. The defense has been poor too but they have the 2nd place leader in INTs with JC Jackson and Gilmore is back.
The Chargers had an off week, it was very messy last week and the series at the end of the game was shambolic. Austin Ekeler returned for them though finishing with 129 scrimmage yards (85 from 11 catches), taking away a lot of Keenan Allen targets by the look of it. Josh Kelley vultured a TD. Hunter Henry had season highs in catches last week. They’re fine on defense although rank 31st against the run which I’d expect the Pats to attack this week.
The Chargers lose 1 score games, it’s what they do. 1-7 in games settled by 8 points or fewer this year. I can’t ever back the Chargers, they’re the Chargers, but I do feel they’re the better team. Have to lean under on the total, it’s Bill Belichick against a rookie QB.
Austin Ekeler anytime TD – 23/20 (888/Uni), Ekeler o39.5 receiving yards – 1.83 (365/Skybet)
(3-7-1) Eagles +10 @ Packers (8-3): 49
What’s going on with the Eagles? Doug Pederson said that Jalen Hurts would get more snaps last week, that turned into 1 completion. No rush attempts, nothing else. 1 fucking completion. Fuck you Doug. He’s actually got a 100% completion percentage this year. But no, lets play walking interception Carson Wentz. It’s the 11th different OL combination he’ll have played behind this season, that’s never good. for some reason they don’t want to let Miles Sanders top 75 yards in any one game despite him having one of the best yards per carry averages in the league, they brought in Jordan Howard who will get carries now and Boston Scott gets too many receptions. The passing game is shit, Dallas Goedert lead them in recs last week, Ertz should be back for this one. Raegor, Fulgham, Jeffrey? Fuck ’em all.
The Packers put up 41 on the Bears last week, their defense is meant to be good. 34 carries, 17 each for Jones and Williams in the backfield, leading to 163 yards and a TD for Jamaal. ONLY 6 receptions for Davante Adams, 61 yards and a TD for him, he’ll probably be closer to double digits again this week. After fumbling the week before MVS got no catches last week, Allen Lazard is back to health and found the endzone, while Robert Tonyan had a deep catch as 5 defenders went towards Adams.
I don’t see how the Eagles keep it close. Packers win, actually a relatively low total, lean over – That total has risen 2.5 points since first draft.
(4-7) Broncos +13.5 @ Chiefs (10-1): 50.5 (SNF)
The Broncos got shafted last week, but they did it themselves and Vic Fangio was right to have a go at his QBs. None of them seem to have had it, so they’ll be back this week. I’m not sure it really means a whole lot as Lock hasn’t exactly been great this year, although the injuries to pass catchers has been a little harsh on them as a team. The offense ranks bottom 3 according to DVOA, the run game can’t get going and while Jerry Jeudy has flashed there’s been no consistency.
Patrick Mahomes will probably be MVP again this year, he’s so good. Tyreek should be up there in the running, he had over 200 yards and 2 TDs in the first quarter last week, finished with 269 and 3 from 13 receptions that game took him to a league leading 13 TDs. Clyde had an injury, but it seems like he’ll be playing anyway, he’s going to be a late decision. If he doesn’t then Lev will get the main role, which hasn’t been extensive in recent weeks. Kelce will get a lot of catches.
I like Tim Patrick to go over his yards and receptions, I’ll take his receptions at 3.5 – 42.5 is his yardage line. No doubt I’ll have picked the wrong one.
I’ve been slack on Monday previews recently, but the Bills and 49ers is actually a decent game so I’ll try and get something out tomorrow for these three games
(4-7) Washington +7 @ Steelers (11-0): 43.5 (MON 10pm)
down from Wash +8.5
(8-3) Bills +1 @ 49ers (5-6) :47 (MNF)
Line has flipped from Bills -1 earlier.
(3-8) Cowboys +7.5 @ Ravens: 44.5 (6-5): (TUE)
- Saints -3
- Rams -2.5
- Latavius Murray – 3/1 (Paddypower)
- DK Metcalf – 10/11 (BetVictor)
- Austin Ekeler 23/20 (Uni/888)
- Denzel Mims o55.5 rec. yards – 1.83 (Skybet)
- Sterling Shepard o4.5 receptions – 11/10 (Skybet)
- Younghoe Koo o6.5 kicking points – 1.80 (365)
- Tim Patrick o3.5 receptions – 2.00 (Skybet)
Good Luck if you’re betting today.
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