#NFL Week 14; Sunday Previews (shorter than usual)

(6-6) Cardinals -2.5 @ Giants (5-7): 47

Not sure I’d have the Cardinals as favourites in this one to be honest. They’re travelling across the country for an early start time and if Kyler Murray isn’t fully fit and ready to run I don’t think they pose THAT much of a threat. I don’t think Kyler will be fully fit all year with his shoulder injury, therefore I don’t think they’ll win. Kenyan Drake has been scoring in place of Kyler since he’s been injured, he’s above evens to find the endzone again.

The Giants have won 4 in a row now, mainly on the back of their defense who has limited teams to a maximum of 23 points in every game bar one this season. The high scoring Seahawks scored just 9 points on them at home last week. It’s a good unit, and they’ve realised Wayne Gallman is pretty good at running the ball as well, he had 5 games in a row with a TD before Alfred Morris vultured 2 last week, but he had his highest rush yards this season in that one. They should have Daniel Jones back at QB for this one, although I don’t think he’ll be rushing too much coming back from a hamstring injury.

Giants win, lean under the total. Gallman – 6/5 (Skybet)

(3-9) Cowboys -3 @ Bengals (2-9-1): 43

ANDY DALTON REVENGE GAME! – The Battle for Sewell. Narratives everywhere in the battle of the underwhelming. The clash of the injured. The…. sneaky high-scoring game? Dalton is back and it’s safe to say he knows his way around Paul Brown stadium. He’s got the talent on offense to do well against a Bengals defense which is good at the top but drops off very quickly. Amari Cooper will face WJ3 who’s been pretty good this year, CeeDee Lamb probably with Alexander in the slot, so Gallup probably gets favourable coverage for dem boyz. Zeke should be able to run if he feels like.

The Bengals have 10 points in the last 3 second halves. Admittedly one of them was after their season ended with the Burrow injury. But they’ve been feeble after the break. They can’t get the run game going (which should be done against this team) and the bright spot on offense has been Tee Higgins who’s barely practised all week. I think they’ll concede 24+ points, and I don’t think with Brandon Allen they’ll be able to get there. Might just be my fan-based pessimism, but I don’t see how they win, and frankly we don’t want to. We need that #3 pick in the draft.

Cowboys win and cover. Lean over the total, but it will be mainly Cowboys points. Gallup anytime – 5/2 (PP)

(4-8) Broncos +3.5 @ Panthers (4-8): 44.5

The Broncos… urgh, Drew Lock isn’t great, they’re unable to get Jerry Jeudy going who should be great with his route running, the run game is terrible, the passing isn’t much better. The one bright spot for them is T-Pat. Tim Patrick has been good and one I like to target on yards or recs. each week.

The Panthers look like they’ll be without DJ Moore and a host of others due to Covid issues.

Not much to like here. Would still lean to the Panthers covering, they’re better coached and a better team.

(4-8) Texans -1 @ Bears (5-7): 45.5

I got it, Deshaun Watson has been brilliant this year, but the lack of talent has to stop him at some point. David Johnson has gone back on the IR, so they’re back to Duke at RB, it looks like Cooks and Coutee will be playing, Cooks surprises me as he’s a history of concussions so I thought they’d be more careful with him after a knock last week. Watson can’t do it all himself. Well, he probably can, but this is still a mildly decent Bears defense even if they have half given up.

The who cares Bears. Dismal to watch, boring, unintersting, uninspiring. David Montgomery should have a good game on the ground, well as good as he can. Cordarelle Patterson at 9/2 (PP) isn’t bad, they seemed to figure something out with him last week and Allen Robinson looks brilliant as he runs down his contract at Soldier field.

I think the Bears win. Lean under the total. Patterson anytime – 9/2 (PP)

(11-1) Chiefs -7.5 @ Dolphins (8-4): 50.5

The Chiefs have been under-the-radar not great this year. They keep grinding out wins, they don’t ever really seem like they’re going to lose, but they’ve not been blowing teams away and are remarkably shallow when it comes to the offense. It’s basically Kelce and Hill. The run game has been poor, and the supporting pieces aren’t doing to a whole lot. We all dump on the Steelers for having an easy schedule (they have) but the Chiefs hasn’t been much tougher.

Having said that, Mahomes and Rodgers will fight it out for MVP. He leads the league in passing yards, 3rd in TDs (31) and second in INTs (2) – So I’m not down on them at all, just saying they’ve not been as impressive as they usually are. Tyreek is 3rd in yards, top in TDs having only failed to score in 3 games this year. Kelce is 2nd in rec. yards this year and has at least 8 receptions in his last 5 games. Hardman, Watkins, Robinson will all chip in, but you can’t trust them. This is a tough Dolphins defense though.

I don’t think Tua Tagovailoa has been very good so far. They’ve not asked him to do much and that could be it, but I watched his full game last week and he was really poor in the first half. Admittedly good in the second half aiming mainly for Mike Gesicki, but they are fairly shallow on offense, so go for the most talented player. Devante Parker isn’t suspended after getting booted from the game last week, so he’ll help there. But they’re without Myles Gaskin at RB after he returned last week. So they’re down to Patrick Laird/Deandre Washington at RB. That’s not good.

The Dolphins strength is the defense, but I don’t think they’ll be able to stop the Chiefs enough/score enough themselves to keep up.

Chiefs win and cover, lean under.

(6-6) Vikings +7.5 @ Buccaneers (7-5): 52.5

The Vikings are on a roll to the playoffs, sneaking in at 7th at the moment, after winning 5 of the last 6 games. That may well come to an end this week though. After saying they were going to limit Dalvin Cooks work last week they went and gave him 32 rush attempts. I assume they thought they’d be miles ahead of the Jags and not needing overtime to beat a 1 win team. It meant nothing for my man Boone and made me look like a twat for suggesting him. I’m tempted to go back in again as Mattison is still out and he’s still big odds. (22/1 on PP) Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson are proving a brilliant partnership, putting up 200+ and scoring a TD each between them last week. Kyle Rudolph is out, Irv Smith returns at TE though he’s likely on a snap count.

Who would have needed a bye week more than a 42 year old QB who had hit a bit of a rut? No-one. That’s who. I’ve got to think Brady would have spent the week sealed in an some kind of cryo-chamber revitalising his old man bones for the play-off stretch. It gave Godwin a week to further recover. Evans, Brown and him should be good, but there’s a chance they’re targeting Brown too much and not the arguably more talented guys. Ronald Jones should be fine at RB, he’s been pretty good.

Dalvin Cook vs. the Bucs run defense is the key to this one. I think the Bucs win the battle and if it was 7 I’d probably take them. Lean over on the total.

(8-4) Titans -7.5 @ Jaguars (1-11): 52.5

The Titans need to keep winning to take the AFC South title, but the Jags have been keeping games close with Mike Glennon at QB. AJ Brown isn’t fully fit, Jonnu Smith looks like he’ll be back at TE for them, it all depends on them getting the lead with Derrick Henry. He had a down game last week and they got humped by the Browns.

I don’t mind Collin Johnson again for the Jags, I mentioned him last week, he didn’t score but led the team in receiving yards for the second week despite DJ Chark returning. 6/1 on 365 for double-L. James Robinson should arguably be OROY for the work he’s done as an undrafted free agent, and he shows no sign of slowing down, I like his receptions again, as always, although only if you can find 3.5. Not a fan of the 4.5 which seems to be the line this week, scrap that.

Titans win, I’d take the Jags on the spread though, I think they’ll keep it fairly close again.

(9-3) Packers -8.5 @ Lions (5-7): 55

Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams. The Green Bay Packers offense. Adams is seemingly unstoppable no matter how obvious the play is, he scored on the 4th attempt at the goal-line last week after Rodgers targeted him for the entire series. He’s amazing, frankly. Jones had 130 yards and a TD, mostly from a breakaway 77 yard run, Jamaal Williams has chipped in on the ground and through the air. MVS will drop a 50 yard bomb, or take that one reception to the house. Tonyan and Lazard will do a little bit.

The Lions looked far more fun under Bevell last week but no Golladay again, may as well let him sit out the season now. D’Andre Swift should be back, although old man Peterson has looked good on the ground anyway, Swift adds more just because of his pass catching ability. Marvin Jones should have a good game again (5 TDs in the last 6) although faces top coverage.

Packers win, not touching the spread, lean over as the Lions should still put up points and we know the Packers will.

(8-4) Colts -3 @ Raiders (7-5): 52.5

Battle for the AFC playoffs in Vegas. The Colts currently hold the 7th seed with the Raiders a game behind, so a lot of import on this one. Neither have been particularly impressive in recent weeks, but it should be an intriguing game.

The Colts should have lost last week, and probably would have done had it not been for a muffed snap at the end of their game. They’ve been hit on the offensive line and it seems to have thrown them off a bit with statue Rivers behind them. He’s still been getting the job done on the whole but their run game hasn’t been as successful as it seemed it would be. It’s tough to figure who will get the ball in the backfield between Taylor, Hines and even Wilkins, it should be Taylor after his 135 scrimmage yards and a TD last week. TY Hilton is looking remarkably good in recent weeks though, ever since I said he was done in fact, and Pittman isn’t bad either on the other side. They use the TE a lot and it looks like Burton is the man of choice now.

The Raiders have Josh Jacobs back which is huge for them, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that they’ve been poor without him running the ball 25 times a game. Derek Carr has actually been having a very good season and they’ve got some weapons on offense, Henry Ruggs scored the winner last week, he’s quicker than anyone on the field, Nelson Agholor has scored quite a few this season with 3 in their last 4 home games. Darren Waller is the man though, he had 200 yards and 2 TDs on 13 catches against the Jets last week.

Tough one to call with Jacobs back. I’d lean to the Colts and over still though.

(0-12) Jets +15 @ Seahawks (8-4): 48

I liked the Jets earlier in the week, but Mimsy missing out, and Crowder questionable really isn’t good. They could do with Gore missing this week as the run game looked far better with Johnson and Adams last week after Gore went out with concussion. Not a whole lot to like though really.

The Seahawks lost to Colt McCoy last week. They’re rarely not involved in one-score games though no matter the opposition, so I’m conflicted here. DK Metcalf should have his way, even Tyler Lockett might get his shit together and do something in this one. It will likely be a lot of Chris Carson on the ground though, they know if they don’t make mistakes on offense it will be a comfortable win for them.

Seahawks win, I don’t want to touch the spread, have to lean under.

(4-8) Falcons +1 @ Chargers (3-9): 49

The battle of the bottle-jobs (thanks Freddy) – How can you pick a winner from two teams who seem dead-set on losing in new and exciting ways?

Julio is out for the Falcons, Zaccheus is as well, so a big game for Ridley, probably a bit for Gage, Powell, Blake as well. Should mean more for Hayden Hurst but Ryan just doesn’t seem to like him.

The Chargers scored ZERO last week after many many many special teams gaffs. They’re literally one of the worst special teams in history. Thank goodness Anthony Lynn has decided to take over that side of the ball. They’ll be better this week, Ekeler should do well, but he should have done last week too. He took a lot of Allen short targets away in their one good game recently.

Nothing on this game, literally nothing, anything could happen. If you could be on “team to lose a 10 point lead” you’d probably be a rich man on these two.

(10-2) Saints -8 @ Eagles (3-8-1): 42.5

The Saints have been the best team in the league over the last month, Taysom Hill has been fine and defensively they’ve allowed fuck all, against admittedly poor offenses, but it’s been an impressive few weeks for them. Figuring out who will score is the thing here, Kamara hasn’t put up numbers with Hill there, but he’s the only player under EVENS to score at 5/6. Hill is a touch above evens, Murray over 3/1. Cook, Smith, Sanders, I’d imagine one of them will find the endzone, but I’ve no idea who. Michael Thomas should top his 5.5 reception line.

The Eagles finally gave up on Wentz for a game or two last week with Jalen Hurts coming in and looking all right. He’s more mobile and threw a couple of deep shots with decent accuracy. Facing this Saints defense on debut though seems like he’s being made the sacrificial lamb to a certain extent. It makes it tough to pick any pass catcher to do well as we don’t know his tendancies, although Greg Ward seemed to get targeted more with Hurts in. Fuck knows on the running game too, they’ve got a lot of guys back there now which has killed any value in Miles Sanders who they seem to hate.

Saints win, probably cover, lean under but it’s a low total.

(5-7) Washington +3 @ 49ers (5-7): 44

The football team beat the Steelers last week. Well done. Alex Smith was error free, doing what he does with throws short of the sticks on 3rd downs, but they still got it done. Terry McLaurin had a fairly quiet one, but the Sims brothers stepped up with Steven and Cam making big plays at key time, while Logan Thomas at TE was targeted on seemingly every other play. They’re without Antonio Gibson here, so Peyton Barber will get most of the carries with McKissic on passing work. It was mainly on the defense who showed up all game in that one. They’ve got a ton of talent on that side of the ball so it’s not surprising that was the key to the game for them.

Kyle Shanahan and Jordan Reed revenge game?! The 49ers should probably stick to one guy in the run game, but they won’t Mostert and big Jeff look good on any given play. Deebo had a down game last week, barely targeted until the end of the game, while Brandon Aiyuk had another very good game, he’s one to look for in the betting. Jordan Reed plays. Jordan Reed scores.

Staying away from the spread here. It seems like one the 49ers could win randomly by 20 points. Jordan Reed anytime – 9/2 (888/Uni) – There’s a ton of props I like though, Barber o10.5 rush attempts, McKissic and Thomas o3.5 receptions. I think there’s value there.

(11-1) Steelers +2 @ Bills (9-3): 49

The Steelers lost. Thank fuck. The Steelers FINALLY lost a game. They’ve been showing for the last few weeks they should lose, but scraping through with wins, thank god they finally got what was inevitably coming. The worry for me is that they bounce back from that now that the pressure of going un-beaten has been lifted. They need to keep winning to keep the #1 seed away from the Chiefs.

They’ve been killed on offense by drops in recent weeks, maybe a result of the weird schedule, maybe just tiredness, maybe pressure. I don’t know. They do throw the ball more than pretty much every team in the league, Big Ben is the least sacked player ove rthe last month as they dump off short passes. If they don’t connect then it hampers the whole offense and that’s been the case recently. Diontae Johnson seems the most targeted player, it was him and Ebron last week, if you’ve read my previews for any time you know I don’t rate Juju much, and Claypool is the main big-play threat, begrudgingly he does look good. Ebron had a lot of targets last week but didn’t do much.

They should welcome back James Conner in the run game which helps that area a lot, he’s not great but Benny Snell is shite. Even with Conner there they weren’t really using the run game much so it will be interesting to see how they go about it tonight.

The Bills are the hype team of the league after a very impressive prime-time win over the 49ers where Josh Allen had probably the best game of his career. He won me a 300/1 #yourodds bet by spreading the ball around his receivers last week which was good of him. Cole Beasley led the team last week from the slot, Diggs strengthened his spot atop the reception leaders with another 10 and Gabe Davis scored as he tends to do when filling in for John Brown as he will this week. They even got the run game going a little with 21 carries for their RBs.

They were expected to be a good defense which hadn’t come to fruition this year, but they did look better last week, admittedly against Nick Mullens, but promising none the less.

It’s the 3rd game in 11 days for the Steelers, and they’ve been hit by a few cluster injuries with Spillane going down last week, but their defense is still a very good unit and TJ Watt will get after Josh Allen. That’s the key in this one I think, if you can pressure Allen he will make mistakes.

I actually think the Steelers bounce back. The line moved 5 points on last weeks results, I think there’s been an over-reaction on the betting front. HOWEVER the tired-ness that the Steelers may face after all these games recently could hit them, so looking at the Bills second half is probably sensible. Bills -0.5 second half – 2.00 (Hills)

(7-5) Ravens -3 @ Browns (9-3): 46.5

Preview tomorrow.

Summary

Spreads

  • Cowboys -3

That’s it actually, the only one I’m really confident in.

TD scorers

  • Wayne Gallman – 6/5 (Skybet)
  • Michael Gallup – 5/2 (PP)
  • Cordarelle Patterson – 9/2 (PP)
  • Jordan Reed – 9/2 (Uni/888)

Props

  • Keke Coutee o4.5 recs. – 5/6
  • Collin Johnson o2.5 rec. – 11/8 (365/Skybet)
  • Lynn Bowden o10.5 rec. yards – 5/6
  • Bills -0.5 second half spread – 1/1 (Hills)

Good luck if you’re betting tonight.

If you missed out on your fantasy football play-offs why not give Dratkings a go, for December they’re putting together a series of Free entry contests – This week there’s a $2,500 prize pool – Free Roll contest – If you’ve not got an account yet then click the image below for a free $10 when you deposit $10.

And visit – NFL-DFS.com for some DFS advice this week.

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