(6-7) Chicago Bears +2.5 @ Minnesota Vikings (6-7): 47
Bears have been spunky since Trubisky returned, I still like the overs in this one (in that article)
(5-8) Detroit Lions +9 @ Tennessee Titans (9-4): 53.5
It looks like Matthew Stafford will be playing for the Lions, he’s a hard bastard. He’ll have body armour on and have an injection, but profootballdoc reckons he’ll still feel it when turning his torso. That’s not great for a QB. Other than that they’re pretty much the same as last week. Wouldn’t want to be going near the pass catchers with the Stafford injury to be honest.
The run game should get more work, so expect the three backs they’ve got to get more carries than usual. I’d expect Swift, Peterson and Johnson in that order. I’ve been high on Swift all year, his rec. yards are at 21.5 as usual, they’re probably going to be trailing so he SHOULD get a few catches. But it’s been a tough group to judge.
It’s De-Hen-Ber. December… but Derrick Henry. Get it? Yeah, Derrick Henry is a beast most of the year but December he seems to go into overdrive. It looks like they’re going to be trying to get him to 2,000 yards on the ground this year, so while they probably won’t need to do it, they’ll be loading him up with carries here. He had 215 yards and 2 TDs last week against the Jags to take him to 1.532 and 14 TDs, obviously both good for #1 in the league.
AJ Brown is the WR version of Henry, has big games with 85+ yards in each of his last 3 games; Corey Davis has been pretty good this year, Jonnu Smith started the season well, scoring a lot but has slowed recently.
The Titans should win and if Stafford is below 75% or so health then I think the Lions will struggle to keep up, I don’t think they’ll be able to slow Henry, or the passing attack to be honest. It’s a big spread though.
Nothing on the spread, lean over the total.
(4-9) Houston Texans +7.5 @ Indianapolis Colts (9-4): 51
These two met a couple of weeks ago with the Colts winning after the Texans fudged a snap with the game on the line.
Texans have been beaten up at WR since then, Cooks missed last week and Coutee wasn’t fully fit in their loss to the Bears. Cooks will be back for this, and I guess Coutee is fine. Lets hope it’s not too sunny in there for Jordan Akins.
Duke Johnson is out, David Johnson looks like he’s back, so it’s him and Buddy Howell in the backfield for the Texans inept run game.
TY Hilton loves playing the Texans, he averages over 100 yards per game against them in his career and has 11 scores including in the recent game 2 weeks ago. He was garbage at the start of the season now has 4 in his last 3 games. Johnathan Taylor looks like he’s going to be the fantasy league winning back that many thought he would, he’s looking for his 4th game in a row with 100+ scrimmage yards and 3rd in a row with a TD.
Colts win, should cover, but I thought that two weeks ago and they struggled.
TY Hilton anytime – 7/5 (PP) was looking at 100+ yards and a TD, but 4/1 is short. Shame on you Skybet. – 7/1 on Betfair for TY 100 yards and a TD.
(1-12) Jacksonville Jaguars +13 @ Baltimore Ravens (8-5): 48
Gardner Minshew back in for the Jags, probably good for DJ Chark. James Robinson is great.
Let down spot for the Ravens after a huge win on Monday, they’re without a lot of pass catchers, so should be a good game for the backs. Even more of a good game… Dobbins and Gus seem the guys now, Ingram only had 1 touch last week in that high scoring game.
Gus Edwards anytime – 12/5 (PP) – Personally will double that with TY above.
(5-8) San Francisco 49ers -3 @ Dallas Cowboys (4-9): 45
Was the late game, it got flexed out because the Cowboys are shit.
Think the 49ers run all over them, Mostert should be back for them, big Jeff Wilson definitely is. Brandon Aiyuk is a stud, should have a huge night but his rec. line is big at 74.5, I’d still lean over.
The Cowboys should actually put up points, but they allowed 300 yards to the Bengals last week and the score was bumped up in that one due to defensive scores. Could get one here as Mullen is turd, but the coaching mis-match between Shanahan and McCarthy is huge.
49ers win and cover.
(6-7) New England Patriots +1 @ Miami Dolphins (8-5): 41.5
Preview on SBR for this one, expect a lot of rushing. Both teams are better vs. the pass than the run.
Damien Harris is ruled out, so Sony Michel probably gets the carries in his place, although it’s the Pats so tough to figure that one out week by week.
It looks like Parker will play, Gesicki even trained after a dislocated shoulder, fair play to him if he plays this game, that’s remarkable. If he doesn’t go then Shaheen (17/2) and Smythe (8/1) yards is a good look.
Xavien Howard has an INT in 5 straight games for the Dolphins.
Still expect a low scoring game. Obviously it’s a low total, but still lean to the under. Adam Shaheen anytime – 17/2 (Skybet) – Worth a go at the price, he gets involved even with Gesicki playing.
Total passing yards – UNDER 433.5 – 5/6 (365)
(0-13) New York Jets +17.5 @ Los Angeles Rams (9-4): 43.5
No.
Rams win, should cover.
(9-4) Seattle Seahawks -6.5 @ Washington FT (6-7): 43.5
The Seahawks basically had a bye week last week against the Jets and were able to rest players in the 4th quarter. DK had his TD after missing out the week before, he’s got a tough matchup this week but he’s a beast. Tyler Lockett seems barely worth mentioning these days. In fact it’s a fairly shallow betting matchup for the Seahawks. Metcalf, Carson. That’s about it for reliable players really.
It’s all about slowing the Washington pass rush, or Wilson getting out of the pocket. They will get home and he will have to scramble it’s whether he can keep the ball safe enough to prevent turnovers as the Washington offense isn’t going to be very good.
Dwayne Haskins gets the start with Alex Smith out, they didn’t score a TD on offense last week and that probably won’t change much tonight. JD McKissic did his work with Smith, Gibson is out, so I guess the only reliable option here is Terry McLaurin who did fine with Haskins last year. Logan Thomas had 6 receptions last week, largely with Haskins, so maybe a look at his receptions.
Seahawks win, probably cover but I want nothing in this.
(8-5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 @ Atlanta Falcons (4-9): 49.5
The Buccs weren’t great returning from their bye week, they won but it was more Minnesota fucking up than them. They only had 20 mins of possession and Brady looked like shit in the first quarter. He did connect on a bomb to Miller though so a bit of confidence on that one at least.
The Falcons defense has been better in recent weeks, but the Buccs should have too much here. Ronald Jones is out, so Fournette probably gets his role after being a healthy scratch last week with McCoy and/or Keshawn Vaughn in the pass-catching role. It’s tough to judge the WRs so I won’t try.
Falcons are without Julio, and Matt Ryan looked crap last week. Calvin Ridley will get 80+ yards and/or a TD, but there’s not much else more to talk about for the Falcons.
Bucs win, cover and lean under on the total
(4-8-1) Philadelphia Eagles +6.5 @ Arizona Cardinals (7-6): 49.5
Jalen Hurts came in and was rather good last week, throwing for 167 and a TD, while rushing for 106 yards from 16 carries as well, it was the first time in (i think) 51 games that the Saints had given up 100 yards to a player on the ground and it looks like his mobility opened up the game for Miles Sanders as well after months or poor performances, he also topped 100 yards. Sanders is the only player with 3 60+ yard rushes this year after 135 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs last week.
Alshon Jeffery is alive, 1 catch for a TD last week, but Dallas Goedert looks like he’ll be the main target of Hurts, tough to tell off one week but he’s had 5+ receptions in 3 of his last 4 games. In fact over 3.5 is a cracking line for him.
The Cardinals are in the running for the playoffs still so will be going all out for the win. It all relies on the health of Murray really. He rushed for 47 yards on 13 carries last week, if he hits double digits attempts they’ll probably win. It looks like Chase Edmonds is going to be out, so that should mean more for Kenyan Drake in the passing game. Drake has been increasing his role anyway in recent weeks with 5 TDs in their last 4 games, I like the look of over on his receiving yards, you can still get 9.5 on Bet365 instead of 13.5 on Skybet.
Passing game? Deandre Hopkins on the left side of the field? He’s got 6 games this year with 100+ receiving yards after hitting that mark last week. Dan Arnold has 4 TDs, all coming over the last month of the season, I guess limited Kyler mobility means more redzone passing to his targets.
Cards should win, but after Hurts performance against the Saints last week I won’t be taking the spread or total.
Dallas Goedert o3.5 receptions – 5/6 (Skybet/365); Kenyan Drake o9.5 rec. yards – 4/5 (365)
(12-1) Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 @ New Orleans Saints (10-3): 52.5
Game of the week and a potential Superbowl preview in the dome in New Orleans.
The Chiefs come in with just 1 loss, yet haven’t really impressed for much of the season, they got down early last week with Mahomes throwing 3 INTs against the Dolphins as they blew up the screen game, but didn’t twitch and were at one point 30-10 up after trailing by 10. They’re just too good on offense.
Mahomes was on track for the MVP before last week, I think he’s probably second behind Rodgers now, but he’s had a brilliant season nonetheless leading the league in passing yards and QBR, he’s thrown over 300 yards in all but 4 games this season and 33 TDs.
It’s actually a fairly shallow attack for the Chiefs, it’s basically Kelce and Hill with others chipping in. Kelce leads the league in receiving yards this year and looks to become the first tight end to take the rec. yard title, he’s had 8+ recs and 125+ yards in his last two games, 100+ in 5 of his last 6 and has 9 scores on the year. Tyreek leads the league in receiving TDs with 14 and only has 3 games where he’s failed to score this year, he also rushed in a score last week. Outside of them two you’re looking at Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, probably in that order.
The run game hasn’t got going all year, something about having a 5 foot rookie running back maybe? He had 16 carries for 32 yards last week, but it just doesn’t matter for the Chiefs, he’s good through the air, 59 yards from 5 recs. in the game last week and I think he’ll get a few receptions this week too as they avoid the Saints pass rush. Lev Bell being there doesn’t seem to help much, the run game has declined if anything since he got there. But really, it doesn’t matter, they’re so well coached that they just use the best player in the league instead.
The Saints will be starting Drew Brees who leads the league in completion percentage this year, he’s missed the last month with 11 rib fractures, so I’m not entirely convinced he’ll be back to full health here and you’d think it’s human nature to shy away from any contact. He’ll be without Michael Thomas again, as he has been for most of the year, they’ve dealt fine with it, but probably not great for them.
It means Alvin Kamara will probably be back to 6+ receptions as Brees dumps it off to him. I think it will be more of the same from the games earlier in the season with Brees starting. So mostly Kamara.
Sanders probably leads the receivers, Trequan Smith, they really don’t have much talent there. Jared Cook looks for 3 in a row with a TD, he has 2 in 3 games against the Chiefs in his career and the Chiefs have given up a lot to the position. Could be a welcome game for Adam Trautman, 8/1 probably a little short though.
The Saints defense has been good, but they’ve faced fuck all. I don’t think they’ll slow KC.
I’m shocked that this line has gone towards the Saints. The Chiefs have strolled through the season, but the one game they really needed was the Ravens early on and they dominated it. I think it will be similar here, I don’t see the Saints restricting them to fewer than 30 points and while they will put up points as well I don’t see them getting enough. Chiefs win and cover.
Chiefs team total – o27.5 – 5/6 (365)
(9-4) Cleveland Browns -6.5 @ New York Giants (5-8): 44
Surely the first time the Browns have ever been flexed into a prime-time game? They lost on the game of the season on Monday night, could have won, it really was a great game.
Baker Mayfield has played well over the last few weeks as compliment to their dominant running game. The run game is where they want to win and they are usually able to. Chubb and Hunt are a brilliant duo. Chubb has 6 games with 100 scrimmage yards and a TD this year, and for me, is up there with Henry as best pure runner in the league and has 3 games with 2 TDs this year. Kareem Hunt had 1 on the ground and one through the air last week, he’s got 10 TDs on the season. They tend to get a drive each, it keeps them fresh and it’s not rare to see one of them breakaway for a big rush at the end of games.
The passing game is mainly Landry, but Rashard Higgins found the endzone last week and is one to look for on a weekly basis at the moment, while Donovan Peoples-Jones has been involved more recently as well. 6/1 on DPJ is a decent price for him to score.
The Giants are beaten up, they’re starting Colt McCoy again at QB and are without James Bradbury in the secondary which could hurt them as they’ve been better on defense this year.
McCoy being in probably means more rushing for Gallman, but Devonta Freeman returns this week and could get some passing work from him, and Dion Lewis is there to steal TDs as well, the shit dick. Gallman has looked good this year.
Sterling Shepard is their leading receiver but didn’t do a whole lot with McCoy under center. Honestly, not much to talk about on that side of the ball, the sample size is small and I don’t think McCoy is very good.
Browns should win and cover, but they tend to let teams get back into games. Browns team total is probably a sensible look for this.
Good luck if you’re betting this week, I woke up late after watching the first half of the Packers game last night so it’s a bit scrappier than usual here.
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