Week 7; NFL Sunday Previews

Atlanta Falcons -2 @ Miami Dolphins: 47.5

Two of the teams that the league blessed London with this year, coming into their first games after playing this side of the pond. The Falcons took their bye week after their game but the Dolphins have decided to come straight into this after London. Miami to Seattle is 7 hours or so, London to Miami 9 hours… so it’s not an extreme difference, but it could affect them here and may have been part of the reason the line reversed from Miami being faves the week before.

It’s been a shit start to the year for both teams, Atlanta’s lack of offensive line has hurt them, but they have studs on offense at least, Kyle Pitts had a breakout game in London with Calvin Ridley missing that game, the whole passing offense revolved around him that week and he accepted the challenge. He probably won’t get 10 targets with Ridley returning, but has at least 6 in all but one game this year and hopefully the boost from that game keeps him involved. Ridley ranks high in most statistics, but hasn’t been able to put it together yet, a huge game is coming for him.

Cordarelle Patterson kept his good form going in London and you’d imagine his split with Mike Davis will be similar here to what we saw last time out. Patterson getting most of the receiving work from the backfield, and sharing rushing carries, but Davis more than likely getting goal-line work.

For what it’s worth I thought Tua played well last week, I’m not entirely convinced he’s a franchise changing QB, but he can get the job done, his one mistake might have cost them the game though as he decided to throw on the run instead of running for a first down/TD got to think that’s a result of the injuries and apprehension on getting contact. 33 from 47 attempts for him as the run game didn’t give them any help. Gaskin is the main man on the ground and gets a lot of dump offs, while Malcolm Brown looked the better runner last week could get some work.

His main man is Jaylen Waddle who scored 2 TDs from his 10 receptions last week, that was without Devante Parker and Preston Williams though, proper last man standing kind of action. It looks like Parker will miss this one as well, Preston may make it. Either way it should still be mainly Waddle and the “tight end” Gesicki in the passing game. Gesicki actually plays in the slot far more than as a tight end and has done well this year. His receiving line is still only 41.5 yards which he’s gone over in each of the last 4 weeks.

Defensively they’ll be hoping for Byron Jones and Xavien Howard to return to help cover Ridley. There’s been rumours of them trading X, so I wouldn’t be totally surprised if he misses this game as well.

I’ve got nothing on this, I think Ryan is the better QB, but the Falcons defense is far worse than the Miami side, so it’s pretty evenly matched. I’d say Falcons win mainly because I’ve been down on Miami all year. I said under on the Full10Yards betting pod, so I’ll lean that way too.

Kyle Pitts o49.5 rec. yards and Mike Gesicki o41.5 rec. yards both look good to me.

Carolina Panthers +3 @ New York Giants: 42.5

https://www.bookmakersreview.com/nfl/picks/panthers-vs-giants-free-nfl-picks-for-week-7/366738/

Not the best of games in prospect here, after a 3-0 start against the worst teams in the league the Panthers have lost 3 in a row, and the old Sam Darnold seems to be back, leading Matt Rhule to say they need to emphasize the run game more. The first half from Darnold last week was terrible but he did lead them down the field and tie up the game with a 2 pt conversion at the end of last weeks game.

If they’re actually promoting the run then it’s good news for Chuba Hubbard who has looked fine in relief of the injured Christian McCaffrey. He scored his first NFL TD last week and had 61 yards from his 16 carries. His line is 18.5 carries on 365, so if you believe the coach talk it’s not too much of an increase on his workload. I’m not too sure, it seems stupid to talk all week of pushing the run game before you play a team even if that team is the Giants.

They’re not exactly stacked in the passing game, Terrace Marshall is out for this one, so they’re realistically down to DJ Moore and Robby Anderson, meaning they’re down to DJ Moore. Robby just isn’t able to get on the same page as Darnold, catching just 3 of his 11 targets, a mix of poor throws and drops. DJ Moore on the other hand has been catching balls, he’s had double-digit targets in 4 of their 6 games, and at least 5 recs in each of them. Behind those two it’s Tommy Tremble and/or Ian Thomas at TE, Brandon Zylstra who’s chipped in a little this year, and not much else. It’s not promising.

Daniel Jones had started the season fairly well but looked terrible returning too early from concussion last week, throwing 3 interceptions against the Rams. It’s not all on him, they ran out of pass catchers as Kadarius Toney went out early on to add to Golladay and Slayton who all missed last week. Shepard played but is a game-time decision this week after aggravating his hamstring injury.

It looks like Slayton may return, as should John Ross and Evan Engram are expected to go, but it’s obviously another week without Saquon Barkley. So, the passing game should, in theory be a lot of Evan Engram with big play attempts to the other guys. Although Dante Pettis may be a surprisingly involved player as the only other target there. The run game is mainly Devontae Booker who’s adequate, and can catch the ball as well.

Not one to bother watching really. Panthers have a defense who should get to Jones, so I’d lean that way and the under.

Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 @ Baltimore Ravens: 45.5

This is the second Bengals game that Sky have shown this season, that’s probably 2 more than the last 2 years combined. The winner here will go top of the AFC North.

It’s a proper litmus test for the Bengals who come in at 4-2 after losing to the Bears and Packers. They performed well against the 5-1 Packers so there’s hope it’s not all a mirage, but the level of opposition in their other matches has made it tough to judge just how good they are this season.

I believe they’re a good team, the defense is greatly improved; Logan Wilson has been brilliant at LB, DJ Reader looking healthy has helped them defend the run and the signings of Chidobe Awuzie and Trey Hendrickson have both worked out so far. The Bengals actually have more sacks this year already than they did all of last season, so pressure is getting home and that helps the rest of the defense.

The key for them here is slowing Lamar Jackson who has abused them in recent years. I think that’s why they drafted a load of LBs last season, you generally draft players to slow down other teams in your division and with the Ravens and Browns in the North, stopping the run should have been a priority and they have done that well this season.

It’s nice to see Joe Burrow looking better by the week at QB as well, he has been largely very good this year, although some of his interceptions have been terrible. He’s 6th in TDs thrown with at least 2 in each game this year, and good for this game, he’s been very good against the blitz, something that Balitmore did constantly to the Chargers last week. There’s been a ton of shit about their offensive line, but it’s been good this year on the whole, the tackles are fine, Williams and Reiff looking good while the interior has been muddled a little through injuries but seem to getting better, it’s their first proper test of the season as well tonight.

I think we can say that picking Ja’marr Chase over Penei Sewell was the right move for the teams as Chase took home yet another rookie of the week award this week. He’s added a deep threat that was missing from the team last year and currently sits 4th in yards and a TDs with 5 scores this season, he also showed he can block as well leading Joe Mixon in for his TD last weekend against the Lions. He may well get Marlon Humphrey covering him here, I’m hoping they try and do it one-on-one as no-one has been able to slow Chase without help yet this year.

Tee Higgins needs to step up though, he’s had a few drops which have cost him this year but in games that all 3 of the WRs have played together he’s been the more targeted player. He showed last year he’s very good it’s just not clicked yet this year, while Tyler Boyd rounds out the group, he seems to be the 3rd guy there now, but I would hope that’s matchup dependant as he’s proven one of the best slot guys in the league.

Joe Mixon has looked good at running back, they have tried to establish the run a lot this year (Mixon has the second most attempts) and I think that will be the case here as well to try and nullify the blitz packages a little. He’s averaging 4.3 yards per rush which isn’t bad and has been getting a little in the passing game which is an area that fans have been wanting to see increase. They should have Samaje Perine back this week while Chris Evans looked good getting a bigger role against the Lions, I’d be happy for Samaje to take the 3rd role and us see more of Evans in the Gio role.

Right, the Ravens. They had probably the best result of the season last week stuffing the Chargers 34-6 in a game that most of us had thought would be very high scoring. It was a heck of a performance for their defense who got pressure on Justin Herbert on 2/3 of drop backs, they restricted them to just 3/12 on 3rd downs and 1 out of 4 on 4th downs, both areas the Chargers had been good in this season.

It’s been an eye-opening year for people who don’t follow the Ravens constantly, with all the injuries to running backs in pre-season they’ve somehow cobbled together an effective attack on the ground, and formed a group that 2017 fantasy players would cream over. Latavius Murray is out for this one, so Le’veon Bell and Devonta Freeman will need to step up and Ty’son Williams will return. Murray had been the most used player, so I’m not sure who gets the bulk of the work in this one.

There’s always shit about Lamar being a running back but this year he’s shown he can be rather useful in the passing game as well when required. The comeback against the Colts was one of the best performances from any QB this year with 4 TDs and over 400 yards, that is his only multi-TD performance of the season though. It’s his legs which have tended to do the damage against the Bengals in recent years though, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him running more in this one. He’s gone over 50 yards in all but one game on the ground. He’s performed better than his numbers give him credit for.

Marquise Brown has stepped up this season and looks like the player they thought they were getting when they drafted him, he’s level with Chase on 5 TDs for the season and could have had 8 or 9 had it not been for drops. His pace lets him get free he just needs to complete the receptions now. He and Mark Andrew at tight end are the main weapons on that side of the ball, but Rashod Bateman made his debut last and caught 4 of his 6 targets in that game, it might have been them taking the chance to pepper him with targets, it might be that he deserved those targets. I don’t know.

Right, got a bit carried away with this one, it’s a huge game. One I’m very much looking forward to, I think the Bengals are a good team this year, I don’t think they’re at the Ravens level though, so a TD spread is probably where it should be, with it being that touch under the 7 I’d lean to the Ravens covering.

I do believe the Bengals will put up points though so I’d go over on the total. For a Bengals fan I’m worried and excited about this one, I’m hoping they don’t get smashed, and don’t think they will.

Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 @ Tennessee Titans: 57.5

Ok, this will be a decent preview, the others will be rushed. It’s late and the rest of the games are walk overs.

The highest total of the season here as the Chiefs travel over to Tennessee. It’s been a crazy start to the season for the Chiefs who despite Mahomes throwing 8 interceptions this year have recorded the most points per play and have their QB leading the league in TD passes with 18 on the season. A lot of those interceptions have been through the hands of receivers but he did throw up probably the worst of his career last week. The second half of that game was lights out though as they walked over Washington.

The run game hasn’t been great, but Darrel Williams has stepped into the main role well scoring twice last week. Er, that’s about it for the run game.

The focus will surely be on the passing game in this one though as they face a Titans team who have lost corners to injury. Tyreek Hill leads the league in receptions so far and I’d expect him to blow up today against the Titans backups. There’s not much to say about him that’s not been said, he quick. It’s helped him that Travis Kelce hasn’t got going yet this year, although looking at his stats he’s still been good it’s just me comparing him to his sky-high reputation. Outside of those two is where I was worried with them coming in, Mecole Hardman refuses to step up, Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle do a little, but the second TE Jody Fortson is out for this one, he’s scored a couple of times this year.

Their defense has been terrible, so slowing the Titans will be their issue although they didn’t allow Washington to get into the redzone last week.

Derrick Henry is a beast. First in attempts, first in yards and first in TDs with 10 so far this season. He’s scored a hat-trick in half of their games this year including both of the last two weeks and thanks to a breakaway 73 yard rush last week (where he put up the quickest speed of any ball carrier this year) averaged 7.3 yards against a Bills defense which had been very good this year. They’ll obviously rely on him to try and keep the game close in this one. They’ll look to give him 25+ carries. He has been involved a little more in the passing game and if they start leaking points may need to be used there tonight.

Ryan Tannehill and the passing game haven’t been great partly due to their two studs not being fully healthy for most of the season, Julio made an outstanding catch last week before leaving the game while AJ Brown struggled through food poisoning in the first half before putting up numbers as the main man in the second half of their game on Monday. Outside of those two it drops off quickly, but they get good matchups against this Chiefs defense so you’ll be hoping that Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Chester Rogers, Marcus Johnson do something. I’m still waiting for Anthony Firkser to get his shit together. I thought he’d step into the Jonnu Smith role and do it well but it’s just not happened yet.

Defense. Injured. They don’t generate pass rush, secondary isn’t good.

I won’t ever tell anyone to bet over 57.5 points, but it seems like it should happen. The spread has come down from 5.5 earlier in the week making it more tempting than ever to back the Chiefs on the road. I would go that way if I had to.

Derrick Henry is 1/2 anytime on 365, 1/4 in other places, the 1/2 is actually not bad.

New York Jets +7 @ New England Patriots: 42.5

https://www.bookmakersreview.com/nfl/picks/jets-patriots-nfl-week-7-picks-predictions/366520/

These two met a few weeks back the Pats killed Zach Wilson in that one and he really didn’t look good in London a couple of weeks back.

The one plus for the Jets is them coming off a bye, and that the Pats haven’t won at home at all this season.

Should be a good game for Damien Harris and I’m keeping an eye on Stevenson who got some carries last week. Hunter Henry has scored three in his last three, and priced nicely this week at 10/3 on 365.

Got to go Pats to cover, probably under on the total.

Washington Football Team +8.5 @ Green Bay Packers: 47.5

This line has been all over the shop, opened at 10, down to 7.5 earlier in the week now back up to 8.5.

Washington are struggling now there’s tape on Taylor Heinicke, and with Antonio Gibson playing through a shin injury. They’ve struggled to move the ball regularly and didn’t even reach the redzone last weekend against one of the worst defenses in the league.

It sucks for Terry McLaurin who would be one of the best in the league on a better team. Ricky Seals-Jones is the man to look for though, he’s missed one snap in the two games he’s played and had a lot of use in the redzone in his first game. He scored last week on broken coverage and 4/1 on BetVictor (cunts) is good. I’m happy with the around 3/1 everywhere else where people are actually allowed to bet without being instantly banned.

The Packers have been workman-like. They’ve not really blown teams away but they’re 5-1 after shitting the bed in week one. The run game looks good with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon sharing carries. Jones has 6 TDs on the year, Dillon just the one a couple of weeks back against the Bengals.

The passing game is Devante Adams. Best in the league.

Leans to the Packers covering and Under on the total. I don’t see WFT putting up many points. It’s a good teaser leg.

Detroit Lions +16 @ Los Angeles Rams: 50.5

https://www.bookmakersreview.com/nfl/picks/lions-rams-nfl-week-7-picks-predictions/366970/

First of the mega-spreads with the Rams here as the QBs face their former teams after being traded over the summer.

The Lions looked terrible last week and it led Dan Campbell to criticise Jared Goff. He’s been who he is, he won’t raise players, but without protection he’s boned. Aaron Donald may well talk to him more in this game than their time as team-mates.

Their offense is pretty much D’Andre Swift and TJ Hockenson. Swift is firmly in the Ekeler role that was predicted with Anthony Lynn as OC. He does it on the ground and through the air. I was hoping for a good rec. line but 45.5 is rough. He should cover it, but I won’t back that.

It should be a walkover for the Rams and I’m expecting a big game for Darrell Henderson who should get a lot of carries and should make it 5 out of 6 games with a score. If it’s as one-sided as expected Sony Michel may get some work as well, but there’s no real look ahead at least as they face the Texans in probably a similar spread next week.

Cooper Kupp will look to get another couple of scores, it’s been him for most of the year but Robert Woods had a big game recently as well. They might even mix it around to Van Jefferson and Desean Jackson. The Lions secondary is shit.

Can’t take the Rams on the spread, but would have to lean that way. Nothing on the total. 5/6 for Henderson anytime is very good, he’s down at 4/9 in other spots.

Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 @ Las Vegas Raiders: 49

Two teams I have no ability to judge. Although I did call the Eagles winning last week.

The eagles still aren’t really running the ball, although 19 carries against the Bucs is more than most teams try so maybe they have finally realised Miles Sanders is pretty good. Hurts has rushed for 2 scores in each of their last two games. I’ve no idea if he’s any good or not.

Devonta Smith has been good though, by some way the best target for them and Dallas Goedert should get more now that Ertz is out of the way. Other than them it’s a mix of Raegor, Watkins and not a whole lot more.

The Raiders got a bounce from Gruden being out of the scene last week, where Derek Carr threw some bombs against the Broncos. First thing I checked this week was how the Eagles did defending the deep ball. They rank 2nd best in preventing deep shots.

Ruggs, Edwards, Waller have all looked good in points, Edwards should have had a lot more yards this year due to drops. It was the first game without Gruden calling the shots and Kenyan Drake scored on the ground and through the air. Josh Jacobs will likely be loaded up as he gets healthier, 6/5 not bad for him to score.

I lean to the Eagles, nothing on the total.

Chicago Bears +13 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 47

Justin Fields will need to grow up quickly to take advantage of the Bucs weak secondary. They won’t be able to get anything going on the ground whether it’s the returning Damien Williams or Khalil Herbert at running back. You don’t run on the Bucs.

Allen Robinson still gets a lot of targets but he seems to like Darnell Mooney, both should be able to get open against the injured secondary at least. I’m just not sure Fields will be able to get things going.

Should be a big game for Leonard Fournette on the ground, while Antonio Brown is out so Chris Godwin and Mike Evans will likely get more targets, maybe Tyler Johnson who I’d assume will come in replacing AB.

This was 12 pts in the week, now 13. As with the Rams, I can’t take the Bears, but I’m not taking the Bucs. Probably under on the total as I don’t think the Bears score much.

Houston Texans +18 @ Arizona Cardinals: 47.5

The Texans played well against the Patriots, then nothing last week against the Colts. There’s nothing to like on their side of the ball.

Ingram was loaded up last week, and having 10 minutes more possession than their opposition, it seems ridiculous that they only scored 3 points. Brandin Cooks will get all the targets on offense, he’s the one “weapon” for them, although Nico Collins made his debut and had 4 receptions.

The Cardinals look great and this should be out of sight by half time. Kyler hasn’t needed to run and shouldn’t here, but James Conner has looked better (I won’t ever say good on him…) and gets the goal-line stuff with Chase Edmonds should get more than last week as he was banged up going into that one.

The 4 WRs have all sparked in different games which makes it impossible to bet them, Nuk Hopkins faces his former team though if that means anything. Could be him, Green, Moore, Kirk scoring, or even Zach Ertz who makes his debut after his trade from the Eagles. 11/4 the highest for their pass-catchers to score.

I like James Conner to find the endzone at 13/10 though he’s had 15 redzone carries and 8 within the 5 which ties him with Derrick Henry.

I actually like the Texans to cover here. The Cards are playing the Packers on Thursday night so may be looking ahead to that one and I feel they’ll try to keep players fresh for that.

Indianapolis Colts +4 @ San Francisco 49ers: 43

Carson Wentz is looking all right now he’s healthy, and with the benefit of Jonathan Taylor looking back to where he was last year. They welcome back Quenten Nelson who will help both QB and running game even more.

They are without TY Hilton again who did very well last week before getting injured, so it’s Michael Pittman who will again have to step into the WR1 spot that he’s played for most of the season. They also lost Parris Campbell for the year so deep shots will be limited.

Wentz seems to like Big Mo Alie-Cox though which is great for me, he scored on his only reception last week and is priced well at 5/1 and above to find the endzone again.

The 49ers looked like they were going to move to Trey Lance, but he’s injured and misses out, so it’s Jimmy Garppolo back in. Yay.

They have activated Hasty from the IR, so he might get some work at RB, but Eli Mitchell took all the carries last time out with Trey Sermon doing very little. So I’d imagine it’ll be mainly Mitchell regardless of anyone else being there.

Passing game I’d assume mainly Deebo Samuel as they’re without George Kittle for another week, and then spread around between the other chumps on the roster.

I “nothing” both of these teams to be honest, Nelson being back could be big for the Colts, so I’ll lean to them as underdogs.

Bets

Sorry for the previews this week, it’s mid-day and I’m way behind where I should be with family over for the weekend. But I’d imagine a lot of people just want to see the bets anyway, so here they are.

I’m not backing any spreads straight up. But, a teaser is fine. Could be Ravens, Packers, Patriots or Eagles this week.

  • Ravens and Packers 6 points teaser – 5/6 (365 and Redzone) – 3 point stake

TD bets

  • Darrell Henderson – 5/6 (365) – 4 point – NAP
  • Hunter Henry – 10/3 (365)
  • Mo Alie-Cox – 5/1 (PP) (is a 11/2 on BetVictor)

Player props

  • Mike Gesicki o41.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (Hills/365/Skybet)
  • Rashod Bateman o3.5 receptions – 13/10 (365)

I’ll leave it at that, I don’t want to force things and I’m on a good run so just a few that I’m more confident in than others.

Good Luck if you follow along.


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