Riiiight, let’s go with this post. There’s a distinct lack of “novelty props” around this time, so I’ll blitz through those at the start, and then into to the actual player props
Of course, you can still bet on the result of the coin toss, obviously Tails never fails, we all know that. Well other than the times it does.
- Tails are leading 29-26
- Largely due to coming up the 6 of the last 8 SBs
- Last year was Heads
- The winner of the coin toss has LOST the last 7 ‘Bowls
So obviously they’re all random, although the last one there is a bit of a weird one. It’s practically guaranteed the winner of the toss will defer the kick (
1/5 at Skybet if you want it, now 1/12) – The Rams and Bengals both deferred every time they won the toss this year.
Now… On Skybet you can bet on what the Rams (as the official road team) will call – I have been furiously researching and searching for the last 96 hours or so, practically non-stop. – From the few instances I could find on twitter from this season, they call tails. I believe that the Rams call Tails. Make of that what you will.
I don’t bother with the Gatorade shower stuff, or who will be shown first. I would assume it’d be McVay and Stafford over the Bengals coaches, the SB is in LA and they’re by far the more nationally liked team over the Bengals.
If Burrow wins he may well mention his family (11/2) first after over-coming the brutal knee injury he suffered last year, again, it’s not something I bet on as I’m usually too drunk to remember the celebrations so I’ve no idea how they usually go.
So, above is the change of lines from the 3rd Feb on 365 to 11th of Feb, and really there’s not been a whole lot of movement.
Joe Burrow –
- Yards (274.5) – Over in 8, under in 11
- TDs – (1.5) Over in 13, under in 6
- Attempts – (35.5) Over in 8, under in 11
- Completions (24.5) – Over in 5, under in 14
- Longest (38.5) – Over in 12, under in 7
- Interceptions (0.5) – Over in 11, under in 8
- Rushing (10.5) – Over in 6, under in 13
- Longest rush (9.5) – Over in 2, under in 17
- Attempts (2.5) – Over in 8, under in 11
That’s the bare numbers for the season. In terms of game-script. I worry that the Rams will be able to get pressure without blitzing like the Titans did. However… He did go over on every market (except TDs) in that game, except TDs. 28/37 – 348 yards 0:1 – Long of 57
He took a lot of sacks in that game (you may have heard) only 1 against the Chiefs where he threw the ball away more and was more mobile in the pocket, scrambled for yardage as well. The rush yardage isn’t tempting if you’re looking at the season but things are different in the post-season and he’s a mobile QB. I would expect him to scramble a bit in this one.
I like the over on rush yards and attempts. – Passing I’d have to lean under on yards, over on TD passes, he has hit 2 or more in 5 of the last 7, but it’s not a bet as there will be a lot of pressure from Donald and Miller.
Matthew Stafford –
- Yards (279.5) – Over in 13, under in 7
- TDs – (1.5) Over in 16, under in 4 – over in 9 of last 10 (o2.5 in 4 of those)
- Attempts – (35.5) Over in 11, under in 9
- Completions (24.5) – Over in 10, under in 10
- Longest (39.5) – Over in 13, under in 7
- Interceptions (0.5) – Over in 12, under in 8
- Rushing (4.5) – Over in 7, under in 13 (every playoff game)
- Attempts (2.5) – Over in 7, under in 13 (every playoff game)
Game-script. The Bengals can get pressure but not to the extent the Rams do, he will have a nicer time of it, but he’s not as accurate as a rule. He will throw INTs, he makes mistakes. Obvioulsy think he’ll go over on TDs, but the odds are below 1.50.
I like his rushing, and attempts for him as well, it’s the playoffs.
Cam Akers –
- Yards (63.5 avg) – Over – 0, under – 4
- Rush and Rec. (83.5) – Over – 1, under – 3
- Rec yards (15.5) – Over – 2, Under – 2
- Receptions (2.5) – Over -2, Under – 2
- Attempts (16.5) – Over – 1, Under 3
- Longest rush (15.5) – Over – 0 – Under 4
- Longest rec. (10.5) – Over – 1, Under 3
The definition of small sample size. It’s not been impressive but he’s been against the 49ers twice and Bucs, two of the best run D’s in the legaue. The Bengals don’t give up a whole lot of rush yards in general but aren’t up with those two. Game-script – Most think the Rams get ahead and McVay runs the ball a lot.
They do have Sony Michel and apparently Darrell Henderson returning, who could take snaps.
I lean under on everything for Akers tbh, I like u16.5 attempts.
Joe Mixon –
- Yards (62.5) – Over – 10, under – 9 (only 2 over in last 8)
- Rush and Rec. (92.5) – Over – 9, under – 10
- Rec yards (26.5) – Over – 8, Under – 11 (over in last 5)
- Receptions (3.5) – Over – 10, Under – 9 – (over in last 5)
- Attempts (16.5) – Over – 12, Under 7
- Longest rush (13.5) – Over – 11, – Under 8
- Longest rec. (12.5) – Over – 7, Under – 12 (over in last 5)
The Bengals started off running Mixon a lot with worries over Burrows health, which slowed off a little, but he went over his attempts in 8 of their last 10 games and ran him all the time on 1st down last week.
They have been using him a lot more in the passing game in the last 5 games, more pressure on the QB means dump-offs to the RB and he’s a very capable passing back. I have to Like the receptions and rec. yards
- Michel rush yards – 16.5, attempts – 4.5; rec. yards – 6.5, receptions – 1.5
- Perine rush yards – 2.5, rec yards – 9.5, receptions – 1.5, rush and rec. – 14.5
First look I thought I’d want to be on Perine rush yards, it’s basically one carry, in the games he’s had a carry he’s only failed to get 3 yards twice, making it in 11 games. Not interested in the other numbers here though.
WRs and TE
Cooper Kupp –
- Rec. yards (105.5) – Over 13, Under – 7
- Receptions (8.5) – Over 10, Under – 10
- Longest (28.5) – Over 15 – Under – 5
I was waiting to go on under 110, but even if it hits that, I just can’t do it, have to lean under on receptions, the Bengals D has actually been OK this year. I was shocked to see him clearing his longest reception so often as someone I think plays largely in the slot, but he’s a beast. Have to say over on that.
Odell Beckham –
- Rec. yards (62.5) – Over 4, Under – 7 (last week his highest of the season)
- Receptions (5.5) – Over 3, Under – 8 (both of the last two games)
- Longest (23) – Over 5 – Under – 6
Odell has settled in nicely at the Rams and as the WR2 tends to get softer coverage, may well be covered by a lot of the game by his former Rams teammate Eli Apple.
I’m not betting on anything with Odell tbh, I would lean over on Rec yards and longest though
- Rec. yards (32.5) – Over 12, Under – 8
- Receptions (2.5) – Over 10, Under – 10 (once in last 8)
- Longest (18.5) – Over 13 – Under – 7
Van Jeff has been dealing with a knock but got in full practices and will play. The season long numbers look good for him, but his role has decreased since Odell joined. If he does have a catch it may well top 18.5 but it’s too risky for me either way.
- Rec. yards (29.5), Receptions (3.5), Longest (15.5)
No point going through the season as he’s only really played a couple of games. Had a lot of work with Higbee out last week and the Bengals do give up yards to the position so I have to say I like the over on his yards and receptions.
Ja’Marr Chase –
- Rec. yards (78.5 avg) – Over 8, Under – 11 (not counting week 18 where he played a couple of snaps to get a record)
- Receptions (5.5) – Over 8, Under – 11
- Longest (27.5) – Over 11 – Under – 8
It’s a tough one with Chase. He’ll get more of Ramsey than anyone else which isn’t great, but he is capable of taking the ball to the house from anywhere on the field so it’s hard taking under.
I have to lean under on yards and recs, conversely I would probably say over on the longest although 7 of his 11 overs on that came in the first 7 weeks of the season. I can’t take under as when he goes over his line, he REALLY goes over it.
- Rec. yards (69.5) – Over 8, Under – 9 (All 8 coming in his last 12 where he’s had 5 games over 100)
- Receptions (5.5) – Over 8, Under – 9
- Longest (24.5) – Over 8 – Under – 9
Tee is probably my favourite of the WR props tonight, he’s got a big height mismatch against Darius Williams if he goes up against him and has proven himself reliable in the big spot, if Ramsey is on Chase more then Higgins should feast. Like the over on Yards
- Rec. yards (42.5) – Over 8, Under – 12 (none in last 4, but 4 in a row previously)
- Receptions (4.5) – Over 6, Under – 14 (none in last 6)
- Longest (18.5) – Over 8 – Under – 12 (none in last 4)
Boyd is a tough one to judge. He’s got the quality and has had some huge plays this year, I can’t bet either way, but for obvious reasons, would be leaning under on all.
CJ Uzomah (YEW-ZAH-MAH)
- Rec. yards (29.5)
He’s been a stud in the playoffs and will be playing despite an MCL sprain two weeks ago. That worries me as there’s no way of telling how good he’ll be. If you’re confident he plays the full 60 (or 70) mins then take the over. If not, like me, then leave it.
- 7.5 kicking points
- 1.5 field goals
- 2.5 Extra points
Gay picked up a muscle strain before the Bucs and has missed two FGs since then, including a 40-something which came up short, that is unheard of in this league. He’s had two weeks to heal up, so you’d hope he’s at full strength. Obviously this is all on gamescript.
Missed one XP all year, in week 5, has missed 4 field goals, 2 of them in the playoffs.
- 7.5 kicking points
- 1.5 field goals
- 2.5 Extra points
Missed 5 FGs and 4 XPs in the regular season, 2 of them in that crazy finish agianst the Packers where both kickers were failing. Spotless record for the last 6 weeks and oozes confidence.
Even money on Bet365 team props for the Bengals to score over 1.5 FGs (him to score o1.5 field goals is a terrible 1.63 on William Hills) is the best you’re going to get on Money Mac. Made all 16 kicks in the postseason and a big reason they have made it this far.
Super Bowls tend to start slow, teams are tight and don’t want to give the game away before it’s even begun.
So the usual u9.5 1st quarter makes sense, as does 1st qtr vs. all other qtrs which is available at Paddypower.
In the same vein, the Second half to be the highest scoring half is 1.83 at Bet365.
Bengals to kick the longest field goal is 1.77 on William Hill, should come in, but gamescript dependant of course.
One that I’ve seen put about is the Rams to call the first time out, McVay is wasteful with his and I believe it includes failed challenges. – 1.86 at 365, 1.83 at Hills for that.
Over 2.5 players to have a pass attempt – 2.50 (Paddypower) – One of my stock picks for the Superbowl, Beckham has thrown one this postseason, Kupp and Boyd have during the year.
Longest receptions match bet – Van Jefferson v Tyler Boyd – 1.83 (Paddypower, on Super Bowl Player props)