Week 1 has been and gone and was filled with shocks as some big favourites lost, and others didn’t manage to cover the spread. Which was annoying. As for the highlighted bets from my column last Sunday… We finished a little up – A record of 3-3 from the recommendations in BOLD – as AJ Dillon at 7/4 proved to be a fantastic price to lock in profit for the weekend. – 2022/23 P/L Sheet
Having had a read back at my leans on sides, I actually did a damn good job on that as well, so not a bad start to the season for my previews.
Week 2 is here and is highlighted by the Buccs v Saints which is obviously the early sky game, I completely disagree with them having the Seahawks v 49ers as the late game, especially as it’s at 2105 so there will be overlap, and the Sunday night game of Bears v Packers doesn’t seem too interesting either, but it’s a bank holiday on Monday so you might stay up and watch some, it will help you sleep at least.
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Sunday Games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 @ New Orleans Saints: 43.5
The biggest game of the weekend takes place in the NFC South and is the early Sky game over here in the UK. Brady and the Bucs looked fantastic last week against a poor Cowboys side, but they have had injury issues this week with all the WRs on the injury report. It does look like Julio, Evans, Gage et al will be playing, but it could be a worry. Julio looked good. Their defense was the main reason for their dominance last week though and will be a good matchup against the Saints.
The Saints looked poor for most of their game but Jameis put up a hell of a 4th quarter to snatch the win. Their WR group looked good in the end, Landry, Thomas and Olave providing good options on offense, it looks like Kamara may not be playing in this one, so Mark Ingram likley gets the start and the bulk of the carries; Their defense gave up a 100 yard rusher for the first time in years, maybe they were looking ahead to this game?
The Saints have won 7 of the last 8 matches between the two, those were with Sean Payton but they obviously matchup well with them.
Carolina Panthers +2.5 @ New York Giants: 43.5
Maybe Matt Rhule just isn’t very good? Baker Mayfield lost his revenge game against the Browns last week as they struggled to move the ball for the most part, with blown coverages the only real plays they made. The usage of Christian McCaffrey was worrying, maybe they’re limiting him to avoid injury but he should get more than 14 touches in a game.
The Giants won thanks to Brian DaBALLS going for the 2-point conversion. Saquon Barkley looked back to his pre-injury best breaking off long run after long run, he can be frustrating with a host of 1 yard runs but you know he’s got a big attempt in him. The passing game was varied, they do actually have quite a few weapons, Kad Toney the most exciting but he was under-played, apparently dealing with a tight hammy, obviously… he’s always injured.
Barkley longest rush o16.5 one I’m very confident in here. Have to lean to the Giants covering, but it’s a stay away.
Washington Commanders +1.5 @ Detroit Lions: 48.5
The first time the Lions have been faves in 24 games, if that’s not motivation for the Commies then I don’t know what is, they were fine against the Jags last week but proabably should have lost. Rookie Jahan Dotson turned up with 2 TDs and Antonio Gibson is playing for his job, as such he ran well, Curtis Samuel looked good and managed to complete the game and Scary Terry is amazing. Carson Wentz 313-4-2 is a typical line from him, great and terrible at the same time.
The Lions once again covered the spread but never really looked like winning, the offensive line will give Goff time here and he’s got weapons, they should be able to put up points but D’Andre Swift possibly on a snap count is an issue. Jamaal Williams the man to profit should Swift have limited time.
POINTS POINTS POINTS – I like the over here, have to lean to Washington though, I can’t take the Lions as faves.
Indianapolis Colts -2.5/3 @ Jacksonville Jaguars: 46
It’s been 8 years since the Colts won at the Jags (one in London) which is absolutely ridiculous, but Reich is good off a loss… so.,… who knows. The WR injuries for them won’t help with Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman both missing out, so expect even more Jonathan Taylor, and Nyhiem Hines in the passing game. Parris Campbell survived a game so he’s in unchartered territory having to play 2 games in one season here.
The Jaguars should have won last week, but I’ve been banging the drum for a year now, maybe Trevor Lawrence isn’t that great, still off target a lot of the time. Christian Kirk needs to be good and put up big yards last week while Travis Etienne should have had a huge game but made stupid mistakes.
Nyheim Hines anytime the bet for me here, best priced at 16/5 at WillHill. Obviously the Colts should win, but it’s a weird hoodoo they have against the Jags
New York Jets +6.5 @ Cleveland Browns: 39.5
Does anyone really care? Joe Flacco threw the ball 59 times last week, that’s stupid. Michael Carter flew over his 12.5 rec. yards as he got a lot of the ball, he’s one to look for again this week. The defense seemed to stop the run well but that could just be because the Ravens knew they had the game won.
The Browns will be running the ball a lot. Hunt snagged both TDs last week but it was split between he and Chubb, nothing much in the passing game, Brissett isn’t good.
Under the obviously look but it’s already below 40. Michael Carter o19.5 rec. yards still seems a decent line despite the rise from 12.5 last week.
New England Patriots -2.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers: 40.5
The Patriots offense looked as poor as expected against an admittedly decent Dolphins defense, they just don’t have the strength in the pass catching group to move the ball regularly, so expect more from Harris and Stevenson on the ground, and maybe in the short passing game with Ty Montgomery out for the season, Stevenson may get more recs. this week.
The Steelers defense was great last week, their offense was putrid. TJ Watt is out after popping his pec, but they will still get pressure up front. It’s hard to take anything on the offensive side of the ball, they used a lot of trickery and still had 267 in 70 mins of football last week, fair play to thenm for the win, but it wasn’t pretty.
I’m still a little shocked to see them Underdogs at home against a poor Patriots team though, would lean to the Steelers but the under seems the look. Rhamondre Stevenson o13.5 rec. yards – Seems I’m all about pass-catching RBs this week.
Miami Dolphins -3.5 @ Baltimore Ravens: 44.5
The Dolphins set up their stall and looked all right against the Pats last week, the connection between Tua and Waddle/Hill was nice, and the pass it 5 air yards and let the receivers plan worked to perfection as Waddle burned down the field. They’ll probably want to run the ball better but there were promising signs for them. The Dolphins defense went blitz heavy against the Ravens last time they played and Lamar struggled, expect the same game-plan.
The Ravens won a walkover against the Jets, but their run game looked poor, it was Kenyan Drake and Mike Davis, but still… JK Dobbins should/could be back for this one and that will help them a lot. Devin Duvernay caught a couple of score, while my guy Isaiah Likely had a goose egg despite 4 targets. At least he was getting looks.
I can’t call this one, could be either side, could be any score.
Seattle Seahawks +8.5 @ San Francisco 49ers: 40 (Sky)
Geno Smith is god? Yes, God, not just Good… Apparenlty the #1 ranked QB of last week which is laughable, but the Seahawks won their biggest game of the year thanks for a defensive performance but they really should have lost. DK and Lockett are good players, but can they get the ball? Pete Carroll wants a heavy, no mistake run game.
The 49ers lost in a monsoon in Chicago, not much to be gleaned from that game really, they spread the ball around at least. Trey Lance rushed a lot and without Elijah Mitchell may have to more now, Jeff Wilson takes the 1 spot, but could mean more rushing for Deebo and Lance. Aiyuk is probably the favoured target but we didn’t get to see much last week.
49ers should win and cover, but Pete Carroll owns Shanahan so I can’t bet it. Over on Lance rush yards – 42.5 the bet for me here even though it’s up from 38.5 earlier in the week.
Atlanta Falcons +8.5 @ Los Angeles Rams: 46.5
Both lost last week but the perception very different coming into week 2. The Falcons were surprisingly good, they have a creative coach, but you have to think they’ll come back down to earth here. Pitts didn’t have much last week will be looking to get more targets to him, Cordarelle Patterson ran well and Olamide Zacchaeaus put up yards in the passing game.
The Rams offensive line was dismal and it cost them the game but the Falcons pass rush isn’t impressive so Matthew Stafford should have a better time here, will they get Allen Robinson some looks? He was barely targeted last week. Cooper Kupp got all the looks and while that’s fine, spreading the ball around would surely help. The run game was muddled Henderson got the bulk of the carries when most expected it to be Akers . I don’t want to guess who gets carries here.
Olamide Zaccheaus o25.5 rec. yards the only look for me here.
Arizona Cardinals +5.5 @ Las Vegas Raiders: 51.5
It was worrying for the Cards last week, fair enough they played the Chiefs but they couldn’t defend or protect Kyler Murray and they’ll face a tougher pass-rush here. The lack of weapons in the passing game continues to be a worry, you can’t expect Greg Dortch to lead the team in receptions and win games, surely. Marquise Brown looked all right I guess.
The Raiders were OK against a good Chargers team, they moved the ball well and Davante Adams commanded nearly half the targets finishing with 141 and a TD on debut. The lack of Hunter Renfrow in the stats is a little worrying but they’ll be fine with it, the offensive line isn’t great and the run game is average, Brandon Bolden seems the 2 there though.
The Cards blitzed at a high rate against the Chiefs, it failed, it may work here and that’s my one bit of trepidation over not backing the Raiders, Carr doesn’t deal with pressure. Kyler o30.5 rush yards the obvious look for props.
Houston Texans +10 @ Denver Broncos: 45
The Texans continued the Colts failure to win opening games with a tie last week, a tie that their coach played for instead of trying to win, weird choice. Sexy Rexy got the bulk of the carries and took away from off-season darling Dameon Pierce but they have said they want to get him the ball more. OJ Howard popped up with 2 redzone scores and probably worth a look at for a longer TD price.
The Broncos really should have won, I don’t take too much away from that loss other than the coaching could be horrendous. Sutton and Jeudy still good, Javonte Wiliams got a lot in the passing game and they’ve said that will be retained as his role, so I like his rec. yards (damn pass-catching backs again)
Of course the Broncos should win and cover but I’m not betting it at this line. Javonte Williams over 23.5 Rec. yards
Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 @ Dallas Cowboys: 41.5
Joe Burrow turned the ball over 5 times last week including a pick 6 yet the Bengals still should have won, weird game. Just eliminate the mistakes and they should walk over the Cowboys ehre, Chase had 129 and 1, it should have been 2, while Tee Higgins was put out of the game with concussion it seems he’s made it through protocol and will play, the OL looked poor but was actually ranked fairly well.
The biggest news of week 1 was Dak Prescott’s injury, he’ll be out for 4-8 weeks dpeending on who you listen to meaning it’s Cooper Rush, so surely it will be a lot more rush from Zeke and Pollard, the offense is lacking receiving weapons and looked poor even before Dak went out. Could be a long year for Cowboys fans.
Bengals should cover, but there’s no way in hell I’m taking it, I’ve probably jinxed it just by typing it here. Chase longest rec was a temper but it’s a high line, I think he’ll destroy Trevon Diggs.
Chicago Bears +10 @ Green Bay Packers: 42
The Bears have one win more than I thought they’d have this year having won in a downpour last week, but they still have nothing to look forward to on offense. Literally 8 receptions for the whole team last week and their lead back, David Montgomery ran for 1.5 yards per carry. They are going to be tough to watch.
The Packers were nearly as bad but Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears so expect him to win and cover again with Allen Lazard returning for them. AJ Dizzle my man for the season and he led the team in rushing and receptions last week. They have said they want to involve Aaron Jones more in the passing game but Dillon should still get the redzone rushes.
AJ Dillon anytime TD – 13/9 apparently the best odds whatever the fuck that is. Thanks Oddschecker
TouchdownTips 
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