Well, I can’t lie about it, but last week was a bit of a disaster all around for anything I recommended on here, we’ve had weeks like that before and bounced back so it’s time to do that again, oh, and the Bengals lost another game they could have won to make it even better for me personally.
Some cracking games on the slate this week and a lot more spreads under a TD which should mean for some close games this weekend, the Lions and Vikings could be tasty, the Bills and Dolphins is rightly the Sky game and could have tons of points while the Bucs and Packers is a big one in the NFC but might not be that fun for the neutral.
As the official sponsor of the NFL in the UK all lines are from 888sports.co.uk – You may well find different elsewhere as I have done straight away for the Bills game which is -5 and 53 on Bet365 – Shop around.
Bills -3.5 @ Dolphins: 54
The early Sky game this week is quite rightly coming from Miami as the Dolphins host the Bills in a top of the AFC East clash with both teams having won both their games so far this year. The Bills rampant over the Rams and the Titans and the Dolphins pulling off a remarkable comeback last week against the Ravens.
Josh Allen is the favourite for MVP and should be, he’s been amazing through two weeks adding more mental ability to his physical talents to turn into a top 3 QB in the league, he and Stefon Diggs connected for 3 TDs in 3 quarters against the Titans on Monday and will look to do the same here. They should have Gabe Davis back but he’s officially questionable, he would be a big addition for the offensive side of the ball. They are very weak on the defensive side though with a ton of injuries, both safeties are out, Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips are both out up front… It’s a worry for them against a high powered offense.
That high-powered offense is three players, Tua, Hill and Waddle who took over the Ravens game against backup cornerbacks. It was the hope for the team coming into the season and it played out just as they wanted, a few deep shots but more 10-15 yards down the field which the speedsters took far further as Tua Tagovailoa notched up 6 TDs. The Dolphins are looking fine on the injury front although is Terron Armstead the stud LT can’t go it will be a big loss against a Bills pass ruish led by Von Miller which has wrecked havoc so far this year.
I wanted to take the Bills here, but the injuries are a big worry, fortunately that should mean points from both sides so I’ve got to take the over despite it being a high number; Over 53 on Bet365 – Tua Tagovailoa longest completion o36.5 yards – 4/5 (365)
Lions +7.5 @ Vikings: 52.5
Lions +6, 52.5 at 365
I think there will be points in this game as well, the Lions defense is not good while their offense has been great so far. Give Jared Goff time and he’ll do well in an offense. They should have D’Andre Swift healthier although he put up huge numbers on limited work last week, kid looks like a stud this year, and in the pass-catching game, Amon-Ra St. Brown is a stud, he’s now had 6 games in a row with 8+ receptions and a TD joining a very select list.
The Vikings defense isn’t all that either, but their offense can put up points, Justin Jefferson didn’t score last weekend but has over 430 yards in his last 3 games against the Lions and should have his way with them tonight, Adam Thielen should get some action near the endzone and it’s a 6pm kick-off so Kirk Cousins will be fine.
I’ve got to go over the total again, and I’d have to lean to the Lions, obviously +7.5 (8/11) instead of the 6.
Eagles -6.5 @ Commanders: 47
The Eagles should roll here, Jalen Hurts is proving that he is capable of taking his talented team to the post-season as they smashed the Vikings on Monday he completed over 80% of his passes and rushed for 2 TDs and you’ve got to think it’ll be similar here, the Commanders D just gave up 36 points to the Lions. Devonta Smith got involved last week and AJ Brown is a stud, they’re a well put together team
Carson Wentz gives you everything in every game, terrible and outstanding depending on the play, he did get Jahan Dotson his 2nd TD in his 2nd game last weekend at a decent price but it was in garbage time, while he does seem to have a good connection with Curtis Samuel.
Not too much to say, I like the Eagles to cover, and probably over on the total
Raiders -1.5 @ Titans: 45.5
No idea who wins this one, both are 0-2 and both are utterly untrustworthy. The Raiders somehow lost last week while the Titans are coming off a short week but rested a lot of starters in the 4th quarter last week.
Davante Adams should feast against a weak Titans secondary and Hunter Renfrow is missing with a concussion, so you’ve got to think more for Waller and Adams, and probably the likes of Brandon Bolden and Ameer Abdullah catching out of the backfield. Josh Jacobs has had an illness all week but is traveling with the team.
The Titans can’t get Derrick Henry going and if they can’t do that they don’t have much. Treylon Burks leads the team in rec. yards, but honestly I don’t think I can talk much about them this week.
Nothing on this game from me. I’d say Raiders are the better team, but who knows.
Saints -2.5 @ Panthers: 41.5
Jameis turned into the Bucs Jameis as soon as they went behind last week chucking interception after interception to lose that game, he had 4 fractures in his back and they don’t just go away, so I can’t trust him to keep it clean even against a poor Panthers team. They should have Alvin Kamara back at RB after he missed last week, Chris Olave had 300-odd air yards in that last game, I’ll be looking for props on him, while Michael Thomas has scored both games this year.
The Panthers stink. Get in the bin Matt Rhule. The Panthers are on a 0-9 streak against the spread, they are 1-25 straight up when conceding 17+ points (RJ Bell podcast)
Have to lean to the Saints under a field goal, this could be a horrible game
Texans +2.5 @ Bears: 39
Talking of stinking… These teams are probably the two worst in the league, but I have the Bears lower so I’m a little surprised they’re the favourites even if they are at home.
The Bears have attempted 28 passes in two games. Apparently a lot if on Fields as he’s rushing on passing plays, probably due to the fact that have a terrible offensive line and no weapons at all.
Short preview on this one, I think the Texans should win – I like Khalil Herbert o26.5 rushing yards
Chiefs -5.5 @ Colts: 50.5
The Chiefs have won both games so far, stuffing the Cardinals and surviving against the Chargers, this is Andy Reid off of extended rest which is usually a good thing and it’s being played indoors which is important… Patrick Mahomes has never lost indoors and has the highest QBR when playing inside. He also smashed Gus Bradley defenses averaging 35 points per game (thanks @_LiamHorsley) – They’ve moved the ball around in the passing game with no-one standing out in the stats so far this year, so it’s tough to pick props. You can get a good price on Jody Fortson who has had redzone targets in each game this year.
The Colts are arguably the worst team in the league on the field this season after getting shut out against the Jags last week, but they always lose in Jacksonville and never win game 1, so maybe this is their time… Matt Ryan looked like he’d never played before, but they were missing their WRs. Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce should be back for this one which helps them immensely.
I can’t take the Colts even at home, have to lean to the Chiefs and the over. I liked Hines last week, I’ll take him over 25.5 rec. yards (He’s topped it in both weeks so far)
Ravens -2.5 @ Patriots: 44
The Ravens are a good team, I’m not sure the Pats are. They welcome back JK Dobbins who should start his first game of the year to help their anemic rushing attack so far this year, Lamar Jackson would have been the talk of the league if they hadn’t thrown it away last week, he’s playing very well so far throwing and rushing the ball despite his lack of weapons, they’re getting open and he’s finding them with Bateman and Andrews the obvious top targets.
The Patriots are defense and run heavy, no surprise given their talent at WR. Stevenson and Harris should do well against a Ravens defense which is beaten up, statistically, they’ve not been as bad as I thought.
I hate backing against Belichick, but I’ve got to go for the Ravens winning and covering.
Bengals -4.5 @ Jets: 44.5
The Bengals went into New York last year to face a backup QB and lost. They’ve lost both games this year with the offensive line looking poor and Burrow looking a little shell-shocked in the pocket. It’s not been pretty. They need to get the run game going and plan some shorter passes to their stud WRs. Am I panicking yet? Well, they’ve looked awful and could/should have won both games, so yes… no, maybe… Let’s just say I’m not confident here despite the fact they should win agianst a Jets team which is bottom 3 in EPA allowed per pass.
The Jets pulled off a miracle comeback against the Browns and will be buzzing for this, Garrett Wilson leads the league in red zone targets and scored his first TD last week in that comeback, they do have talent at WR. Breece Hall got a lot more of the ball last week with Michael Carter the firm RB2 already.
I obviously think the Bengals should win, but not a chance in hell I’m backing them. Should be points, take the over.
Jaguars +3.5 @ Chargers: 42.5
This was 7 or 7.5 earlier in the week but with Justin Herbert a true game-time decision the line has moved massively so the bettors clearly think this will be a Chase Daniel game. Kennan Allen is officially questionable, he has practiced this week but he seems up in the air as we approach game time. Either way you’ve got to think Austin Ekeler gets a lot of the ball on the ground and in short passes.
The Jaguars smashed the Colts last week with Trevor Lawrence having his best game as a pro, he has faced little pass rush this season but that will change here. He has a great connection with Christian Kirk who is definitely his favourite target and the run game is working well with James Robinson getting the bulk of the carries. Their defense has performed very well so far.
I can’t take the Jags getting points against Chase Daniel, it’s just not something I want to do, the Chargers are still capable of winning this game going away even with a backup. Lean under on total
Falcons +1 @ Seahawks: 42.5
Two poor teams here, but at least one of them has been entertaining this year and it’s not the home team. The Falcons gave the Rams a scare after blocking a punt they have a chance to win the game at the death but couldn’t pull it off. Marcus Mariota is running the offense well and Drake London is showing up in his first two games. They will want to get the ball to Kyle Pitts more as he’s been bottled up so far.
Geno Smith is one of the highest-rated QBs according to PFF, which makes a mockery of their ratings. He’s as crap as expected but he does keep the ball safe. They can barely move the ball through the air or on the ground, Penny and Walker combining for a massive 25 yards rushing last weekend.
Oooo, I had a stat (from Around the NFL) – The Seahawks are yet to force a 3 and out.
I’ve got to take the Falcons getting points but it’s not one I’ll be paying attention to.
Rams -3.5 @ Cardinals: 48.5
Sean McVay owns Kliff Kingsbury and the last time we saw these two go against each other was the worst playoff performance in recent history as the Rams stuffed the Cardinals.
The Rams run game continues to be split between Henderson and Akers and looks OK, the passing game is still mostly Cooper Kupp which is no surprise, another 14 targets for him last week, but Allen Robinson found the endzone which was a good site. Tyler Higbee has as many Redzone targets as Kupp but is yet to score, he goes up against a defense which has given up a lot of yards ot the position, although it was to Kelce and Waller.
The Cardinals are Kyler Murray and… well it’s just him really, he took over the game against the Raiders last week to snatch a win. Greg fucking Dortch found the endzone again, can we expect that every week? Marquise Brown was a little more involved but honestly I don’t know what the Cardinals are so I can’t back them. James Conner left lsat week with an injury, he is expected to play in this one, Darrel Williams took the main role without him.
Rams should win and cover, the Cards pass rush is poor so Stafford should be fine.
Packers +1.5 @ Buccaneers: 42
Rodgers vs. Brady should be great, right? If they had any pass catchers between them it might have been, but they’re both weak in that group this week.
Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon will likely get a lot of work but the Bucs run defense is one of the best in the league so they may do a lot through short passes, Allen Lazard played his first game last week and scored, he is likely to be the #1 target for the Packers. Sammy Watkins led the team in yards last week but is now on IR weakening the rec. corps even more.
The Bucs are without Godwin, Evans, probably Julio so they’re down to the average lot, Scotty Miller invoked the wrath of Brady with drops last week, Breshad Perriman caught the deep shot to set up their win, he’ll get similar here I’d imagine. Lenny Fournette looks like he’ll get a lot of usage on the ground.
For such a potentially big game I really don’t care, it could be a snoozer but whoever wins will be looking good in the NFC, for the sake of competition I hope it’s the Packers and I’d lean that way.
49ers -1.5 @ Broncos: 44
Trey Lance’s season is over and the team seemed fine with that welcoming back Jimmy Garoppolo with open arms as they didn’t miss a beat comfortably beating the Seahawks last weekend.
It probably means more for Jeff Wilson on the ground and Deebo will likely get more targets and work with Jimmy back there, although it was Aiyuk who led the team in yards which is a good sign for the balance of their offense.
Nathaniel Hackett surely can’t be as bad a coach as he’s shown so far, but this is a clear coaching mis-match between the teams. They have been a mess so far despite the talent available, Gordon and Williams have done well on the ground, and Russ has been fine. He should have Jeudy available as he’s playing through injury and Surtain is apparently going to help their defense.
Until Hackett has shown he can be an NFL coach it’s a firm fade on them, will take the 49ers to cover and under on the total
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