A quick warning this week, I hate the slate. 8 of the 14 games have favourites of 6 or more points, and I’m not convinced on many sides of many games. Even props are a struggle, so hopefully I’ll guide you to something, but there’s not a whole lot of tips from myself.
Browns +6.5 at Ravens: 45.5
The early sky game this week comes from the AFC North as the Browns take on the Ravens.
The Browns were hideous against the Patriots last week, but that was against Bill Belichick who used to coach Jacoby Brissett and knew darn well what his weaknesses were. They only gave Nick Chubb 12 carries, which is frankly absurd for the best running back in the league regardless of the position of the game. Their only chance of winning games at the moment is the run game.
So I fully expect the run game to get a healthy amount of the ball here and for Chubb to bounce back to the 17 carries per game he’s been used to, and with his line now dropping below 80 yards I’m happy to take the over. The Browns don’t have a whole lot else in fairness, Njoku has been fine and Cooper is a very good WR, but with Brissett under center it’s rough.
The Ravens haven’t exactly been great either, giving up double-digit leads like they were going out of fashion. Last week they lost to the Giants and the lack of receiving talent puts undue weight on the running game which hasn’t been good and is probably worse with JK Dobbins out for at least 6 weeks, possibly the year. They may have Gus “the bus” Edwards returning this week or next, but it’s not been great.
Their defense has been fine but sits 24th vs. the run (according to DVOA) so facing the best RB in the league it doesn’t look great for them. I have to lean to the Browns covering, and probably the under. My bet for this would be Nick Chubb over 75.5 rush yards.
Falcons +6.5 at Bengals: 47.5
Another AFC North team here with the Bengals half a game behind at the top there. The Falcons though have been spunkier than Johnny Sin this year, keeping themselves in games that they have no right to be in. Mariota has done well, and Arthur Smith is improving his resumé by the day as a play-caller. Caleb Huntley and Tyler Allgeier shouldn’t be good but are playing well, Drake London is having a good rookie season and Kyle Pitts is there, and acting as an amazing distraction opening shit up for Olamide Zaccheus and others.
The Bengals… MY Bengals maybe figured things out last week against the Saints, I’m not as convicned as others but they used a lot of slants to Chase and Boyd to move the ball and it worked well, and Mixon has been running better in recent weeks. Finally. They have the talent and ability to beat any team in the legaue and should do so here.
I am a HUUUGE pessimist when it comes to the Bengals and if anything I’d be taking the Falcons to cover the spread for the 7th time in a row. However… the Bengals have the talent to destroy this team so it’s a firm stay away.
Colts +2.5 at Titans: 42
Both teams have 3 wins and the Titans won the first matchup between these two a few weeks ago. for the Colts it’s their second re-match of the season after levelling things against the Jags last week.
The Colts should have Taylor and Hines back finally, and Deon Jackson was a stud in their place, so they clearly have a good running game, while the passing game seems to have sparked to life with Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman both looking very good last week. In theory… They’re good.
The Titans are well-coached and while they aren’t uber-talented on paper, they tend to get the job done. Derrick Henry obviously the key for them and he’s been running well this year. Honestly, I struggle to talk about the Titans because they don’t really have much but usually manage to get the job done. Robert Woods the WR1, but when Chig Okonkwo leads your receiving with 38 yards in the first matchup against this team, I have no idea who is going to do anything, other than Henry.
Colts should win, but I’m not touching a thing on this game.
Lions +7 at Cowboys: 49
The Lions come off their bye week to face one of the better defenses in the league this year. Talk on Sunday morning is that D’Andre Swift is probably missing out again so it seems like Jamaal Williams will be the lead back. Amon-Ra St. Brown should be back so they get their WR1 back at least. TJ Hockenson filled in well with Ra out of the game. Jared Goff does well when kept clean and their offensive line has been very good, but this is a tough matchup for them against Micah Parsons.
The Cowboys welcome back Dak Prescott which is good news for their offense as despite Cooper Rush leading them to wins they weren’t able to put up points when required. The return of Prescott helps Ceedee Lamb, and Michael Gallup is getting healthier each week as well. Zeke and Pollard are a good 1-2 in the backfield, Pollard more explosive but Zeke is fine each week too.
I’ve taken the under as my best bet on the Full10yards podcast, so I’d stick with that due to thinking the Lions will be restricted and I doubt Dak is at full strength. Jamaal Williams was 2/1 anytime, he’s now 13/8 at Skybet, that’s probably still a bet. 5/1 on Lamb and Williams is a decent look too.
Packers -4.5 at Commanders: 41.5
This has the potential to be a terrible game. The Packers, “led” by Aaron Rodgers do not look good this year, they don’t have the pass-catching talent, but have a QB who is determined to be the centre of attention and not had the ball off to one of the best running back groups in the league. Sammy Watkins is back off IR, Allen Lazard and Romeo Doubs have been fine. Just run the ball.
The Commies have put Carson Wentz on IR so we’ve got Taylor Heinicke back at QB for them, Brian Robinson is getting the main workload on the ground, Terry McLaurin remains in purgatory due to this offense.
That’s far more words than this game deserves. I like Heinicke over his rushing line, 13.5 now, and I don’t mind a nibble on him anytime – 13/2 at Spreadex, but around 5s at the mainstream bookies.
Buccaneers -13 at Panthers: 39.5
I don’t think the Buccs are playing well this year, but they’re up against a tanking Panthers team in this one. Things aren’t right in Tampa with all of the distractions in Brady’s private life and they seem to be struggling on offense. Julio Jones is out again but they’ll have Evans and Godwin out there so are at relative full strength and Lenny Fournette is running well too especially against bad teams.
The Panthers stink. PJ Walker is at QB, they’ve said it’ll be a committee of Chuba Hubbard and D’onta Foreman at RB (I actually think Foreman is a decent back) and the pass-catching group is screwed by everything else.
Bucs should win and cover, they may well smash the Panthers after the farce in Pittsburgh last week. I wouldn’t be taking them to cover although that is the lean even at this large line
Giants +3 at Jaguars: 43
The 5-1 Giants are underdogs. Against the Jaguars… That’s how highly the bookies rate the Giants this season, and it’s tough to disagree, they are playing better than the sum of their parts. Saquon Barkley the obvious key for them on offense and the addition of Wan’Dale Robinson to a depleted passing game looked good last week, we have to expect his role increases for this one. The rookie TE Bellinger scored against the Ravens last week as one of his 5 receptions, he could be a good one to look for at 7/2.
The Jags started the season well, but with teams realising they’re not garbage it’s come back to earth a little in recent weeks and the implosion against the Colts last week would have been painful. Travis Etienne is doing us proud now he’s getting the majority of the snaps at RB, longest rush and longest reception landed for him last week. James Robinson actually got more carries in that game. Christian Kirk kept up his good season with another TD and Lawrence spread the ball around the rest of his options.
Am I trusting the Giants? Not at all. I think this will be a close game either way so could be a good one for the ole “Tribet” – either team to win by 5 or fewer points – 13/8 on Bet365, or Evens for 7 or fewer points at Paddypower for a little more comfort.
Jets -1.5 at Broncos: 38
All the way from +3.5 to Jets -1.5 – Imagine seeing the Jets as favourites against the Broncos when this game was announced. But here we are, with Brett Rypien playing at QB for the Broncos.
The Jets have looked pretty good in fairness and would have probably been under 3 point underdogs even without Wilson missing out. They’re getting great production from their rookies with Breece Hall smashing it on the ground and Sauce Gardner looking like the true lockdown CB that they thought he would be when drafting him. It was turnovers on special teams which won the game last week but Zach Wilson has been perfectly adequate at QB.
The Broncos have been the disappointment of the season for most, although I was down on them anyway coming into the season, even then they’ve been far worse than imagined and coming in without Wilson might not make a whole lot of difference to their faltering offense which has been coached terribly through 6 weeks.
Melvin Gordon was benched inexplicably last week so Latavius Murray got the bulk of the carries, apparently chats have been had and Gordon gets the start this week but I’m not trusting anything there. The passing game can’t be touched now either, but in fairness the Broncos defense has been very good.
It’s tough to take u37 but it’s still the way I’ll be leaning. I’m not going near the spread either. 1 FG each team, each half was 8/1 in the Broncos game last week, and I’ve requested a price on it again for this one.
Texans +7 at Raiders: 45.5
Another game I have no idea who each team is, both have 1 win on the season, and both are teams I’ve paid minimal attention to so far.
The Texans play in the AFC South. They are based in Houston. Oooo, I know, Dameon Pierce, looks like he’s pretty good.
The Raiders in fairness seem unlucky to be 1-5, Josh Jacobs looks like he’s finally getting the role he should be, Davante Adams is getting a shit-ton of targets, Darren Waller is out for this one, so Foster Moreau may get a look in and Hunter Renfrow should be back from injury finally.
Raiders should win and cover, but they have a habit of being terrible so once more, nothing on this one.
Seahawks +5 at Chargers: 50
Until last week the Seahawks were surprisningly fun to watch, they were giving up points and scoring them as well, but then I watched most of their game against the Cardinals and it become very tough to see anything other than them being led by Geno Smith and him hitting his low expectations from pre-season.
Kenneth Walker looked good on the ground and will obviously get the main workload in decent matchup for running backs, DK Metcalf is getting a lot of the targets for the Seahawks and while Tyler Lockett is officially questionable for the game he looks like he’ll be playing. I do like a bit of Will Dissly who’s scored a couple this year but only had one catch last week.
The Chargers look like they’ve navigated Herberts rib injury well and with the bye week next week will be looking to get there without aggravating it. The same is true for Keenan Allen who’s missed most games this year with a hamstring injury, he’s a game-time decision but it seems silly to throw him in here before a week off, so even if he is a go I wouldn’t be expecting much. That should mean good things for Mike Williams who has done well with Allen out. Austin Ekeler has been a beast in the last couple of games as well and agasint a Seahawks defense which has been terrible this year should do well.
I’ve got to take the Chargers to win and cover, hopefully a lot of points here too.
Chiefs -1 at 49ers: 49
This line has come in to just 1 now after being 2.5 earlier in the week due the 49ers getting back a few players on defense including Nick Bosa, and after they traded for Christian McCaffrey from the Panthers, I’m not sure what role he will have this week but he is expected to play some snaps.
Jimmy Garoppolo is who he is, he’ll get them some wins but at the end of the day I don’t think anyone is convinced that he’ll take them to a Super Bowl win. He does have weapons and with CMC there they should be a very fun offense, thinking what Shanahan could do with Deebo and CMC is quite something. Aiyuk was the man last week with both of their TDs while Jeff Wilson got most of the work on the ground in recent weeks but obviously we don’t know what will happen there now.
The Chiefs couldn’t pull off a comeback against the Bills last week as Von Miller caused havoc, but Mahomes and the offense are obviously pretty good an Juju found the endzone for the first time in red in that matchup after leading the WR group in yards and recs for the season. Travis Kelce is the key to the Chiefs and should do well against a 49ers defense still missing key players. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the de facto RB1 but the jury is still out on his ability on the ground, we do know he can do well catching out of the backfield though. We keep getting hype about Skyy Moore and each week he has 1 reception.
The Chiefs should win, and now it’s essentially pick’em it’s easier to take them. Will Reid/Mahomes lose two games in a row? Seems unlikely.
Steelers +7 at Dolphins: 45.5
Thank goodness this is locked away on SNF for us in the UK. The Steelers won as huge underdogs last week after Kenny Pickett was knocked out with concussion and Trubisky finished off the game without many errors. Somehow Pickett has made it through concussion protocol to play in this one, yet another F U from the league to the Dolphins.
The Steelers offense is inept no matter who is back there with little to no offensive line, the run game is dreadful and Chase Claypool (once scored 4 TDs in a game to secure his HoF spot) has been the talk of trade rumours all week. George Pickens looks good with Pickett but nothing with Trubisky and Diontae Johnson has made some spectacular catches this year in defeats. Fair play to them for winning last week though, the defense was beaten up to hell yet held up incredibly well, let’s see how they do against the pace off Hill and Waddle.
Tua Tagovailoa is back for the Dolphins, personally I couldn’t imagine stepping back on the field a few weeks after what happened to him, but these guys are bred for football and I’d imagine he wanted to be back immediately. The Dolphins just need a few weeks of consistency at QB to get back on track and hopefully they’ll get it now.
Hill has still been putting up huge yards regardless of who is getting the ball to him and Waddle has a good connection with Tua. Mike Gesicki got in on the act last week but I won’t trust him with Tua back. Raheem Mostert seems to be the main back now, I like his longest rush prop every week after it hit again last weekend.
Got to take the Dolphins winning and covering, but after the Steelers win last week, I don’t want to go agaisnt them getting 7.
A rough week for games and one I don’t have many real likes on, but thanks for reading if you made it this far, rememeber to check out NFL-DFS.com for advice on your DraftKings lineups.