Here we are already, pretty much halfway through the NFL regular season, a season that as always is over too quickly after the long wait for it to begin.
It’s the final London game of the season this week with the Broncos taking on the Jaguars at Wembley, it doesn’t look like the most interesting game of the year but fingers crossed it will surprise us and provide some points.
REMINDER THAT THE GAMES ARE AN HOUR EARLIER TODAY, 5PM KICK OFFS IN THE UK.
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I will put another apology here as well, this isn’t very good work. It’s been a busy weekend and I’m struggling to find much to highlight in a lot of these games.
Broncos +1.5 vs Jaguars: 40
Ugh, this game should have been more fun that it looks like, the Broncos are surely the team who have performed worst compared to expectation this year? There were people thinking they’d make a run for the Super Bowl (not me, “So, everything I’ve heard this summer is that the Broncos are just a QB away from being serious contenders in the AFC and overall. I don’t particularly buy that, I can see where people are coming from, the defense is good and the offense isn’t bad either, but I just don’t see it personally.” – My exact words in the summer, and that he proven correct as they’ve stunk up the place.
Russell Wilson doesn’t look like the player they paid a fortune to sign up for another half a decade and he’s coming into this one off of a hamstring injury, he has said he’s fine and he’s not on the injury report but you’d imagine he won’t be a full health. Even when he was the offense was putrid.
Courtland Sutton is the WR1 with Jerry Jeudy possibly heading out the door before the Tuesday trade deadline, Greg Dulcich has come off IR to be the TE1 by the look of it, and running back is tough to call with Melly Gordon and Latavius Murray sharing carries.
Their defense has been very good though, and I’d expect them to do a job stopping the Jaguars.
I’m still not convinced by Trevor Lawrence at QB for the Jags, he’s been a lot better this year but still frequently over-throws receivers and throwing short of the end-zone with the game on the line last week was a strange decision. In fairness they have been putting up a lot of yards they just don’t seem to be able to get drives over the line frequently enough.
He does seem to like having Travis Etienne at RB and they got rid of James Robinson for bag of beans this week so clearly believe ETN can do the job by himself. Christian Kirk has looked fine at WR, he and the Jones brothers move the ball well enough for them and Evan Engram had a decent game in the box score finally.
The Jags defense has been up and down this year, after a strong start it’s been a rough month for them.
I’m rambling now, there’s not much to say about this one, sorry Wembley, sorry NFLUK fans, fuck Paul Brown, you piece of shit.
One bet; Travis Etienne o19.5 rec. yards.
Bears +10 at Cowboys: 43
DA BEARS. Maybe they’re not as bad as we all thought. Maybe they figured something out as they spanked the Patriots on Monday, they used Justin Fields as a running quarterback at last and it worked very well, in fact they lead the league in rushing yards this season thanks to him and the RBs.
Much like their opposition they seem to have a better RB2 than RB1, which is a nice spot to be in, I’m not a fan of Montgomery, he runs a lot but doesn’t seem explosive while Khalil Herbert on the other hand is fun to watch. All three of the rushers found the endzone on Monday and the game plan should be similar tonight.
The passing game is quite something. A high of 15 completions, 208 yards is the limit of it so far this season. Darnell Mooney the 1, Equanimeuos St. Brown has been chipping in, and Cole Kmet had a couple of touches, but this is a run heavy team with no OL.
The Cowboys will be able to get pressure on Fields, but his mobility may help to negate that pressure from mainly Micah Parsons who is good to go here.
Dak returned last week and showed good efficiency at least on return from his thumb injury. Notably, to me as a Gallup owner, it was Lamb and Noah Brown who led the team in yards, but Schultz got a lot more looks than he had with Cooper Rush under center.
The Cowboys should win fairly comfortably but maybe the Bears have figured things out. I’ve got to lean to the Bears covering the spread.
Dolphins -3.5 at Lions: 51.5
I like the under in this one. The Dolphins have only gone over 21 points once this season, and with Tua back they will move the ball well but seem to struggle finding the endzone, Hill and Waddle may well have 100+ yards each as they have done a number of times this year. Gesicki chips in as well.
Raheem Mostert has taken the lead roll at RB and looks good every week, his longest rush, or rec is my usual go-to on him, he’s had a long run of 12 or more for the last 4 weeks. Chase Edmonds exists too.
The Lions have fallen off a cliff after a number of injuries, but look like they should be back to relative full-strength in this one with Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift both good to go. That is a huge boost for them.
Jared Goff has done fine with protection and should get that here, and with Swift and Ra both back they should be able to move the ball well, but this Dolphins defense has been effective this year.
I’m taking the Under, would lean to the ‘Fins covering the spread. Mostert longest rush is 15.5, too high for me.
Cardinals +3.5 at Vikings: 48.5
Should be an interesting game with the Vikings at 5-1 and the Cardinals looking like they might have found some form with Deandre Hopkins back in the team, although it was their defense which won the game against the Saints last Thursday.
It’s mini-bye vs. full bye with the Vikings coming back off their rest.
The Cards are without James Conner again so Eno Benjamin gets the lead role with rookie Keontay Ingram behind him, both looked good last week. The passing game will likely go through Hopkins who finished o100 yards on 10 receptions as they moved him around the field to get favoured coverage.
I doubt their defense will do what they did last week, but it could be a big improvement for them after a poor start to the season.
The Vikings have a great record but struggle to cover spreads, are they frauds? Our boy Callum thinks so, I’m not too sure. Rookie head coaches usually appreciate their bye-week so we’ll have to see how the Vikings do coming off of theirs.
They should be winning more comfortably with Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook and Kirk Cousins a very solid spine to the team, but other than Adam Thielen they don’t have many additional pieces. Their defense isn’t exactly stellar although it is a Patrick Peterson revenge game, so who knows.
I’m leaning to the Cards covering, not sure I’d take them to win. Hopefully a lot of points as this might be my game to watch today with the Bengals playing Monday.
Patriots -2.5 at Jets: 40
Bill Belichick owns the Jets with 12 wins in a row against their divisional rivals including a 54-13 destruction last year, I doubt the Jets have forgotten that, but after being killed by Da Bears on Monday night I doubt that Bill will allow another defeat.
The Patriots have said they’re starting Mac Jones, who knows how long he’ll get after Monday, they obviously don’t mind Bailey Zappe either, no matter who is there they’re a run-first team with Stevenson and Harris on the deck. Jacobi Meyers scored on a deep shot and Devante Parker finally did something.
Fair play to the Jets for hitting 5-2, but it came at a cost with Breece Hall out for the season, they moved quick to bring in James Robinson from the Jags he’ll likely be the backup behind Michael Carter in the running game for them. Corey Davis is out as well which weakens the pass-catching but this is a game where Zach Wilson HAS to show that he’s not garbage.
Patriots win, cover, go over their team total, all that. Rhamondre Stevenson scores.
Steelers +10.5 at Eagles: 43
Kenny Pickett, a suitable name for someone who has thrown 7 interceptions to 2 TDs in his 4 games. Impressive stuff from the rookie.
He does like George Pickens who I’ve been looking for on overs since he Pickett came into the team, but I’m not going for it against this very strong unbeaten Eagles defense. Not much more to say on the Steelers.
The Eagles are unbeaten, coming off their bye week and don’t have to look ahead with the Texans on deck. Hurts has done very well on the ground and throwing the ball and while the Steelers D has improved in recent weeks they will struggle to slow AJ Brown, Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert through the air and Miles Sanders on the ground as this team is clicking.
Eagles win, look for them second quarter as they look to be the best scoring 2nd quarter team of all time. I”d have to lean to the Steelers covering still as they seem to keep things close.
Panthers +4 at Falcons: 41
The Panthers pulled off an unlikely shock win against the Bucs last week, will they be able to follow it up against another divisional rival? Fuck knows. They should have a good passing game as PJ Walker looked downfield when he threw last week, and the run game looked good with Chuba Hubbard and Dont’a Foreman. Chuba misses out here, so it’s Foreman and maybe Blackshear the rookie.
The Falcons secondary is decimated so I’ll probably look for PJ Walker over his passing yards, 184.5 seems the prevailing line. That should mean DJ Moore and Terrace Marshall getting targeted and maybe a bit of TE Tommy Tremble who scored last week.
The Falcons kept running despite being down last week, so probably not sensible to looking at anything in the passing game. Caleb Huntley, Tyler Algeier and Mariota will probably get a lot of work, but maybe it’s time to shake things up with Desmond Ridder…
The Falcons had been covering spreads well until last week, all as underdogs, I can’t take them as faves. Let’s lean over the low total. Walker o184.5 passing yards, and Dont’a Foreman anytime at plus money is fine.
Raiders -1 at Saints: 49
Should be a fun game here with both teams able to put up points and neither being able to defend hence having 4 wins between them this year.
The Raiders seem to have found out the Josh Jacobs is a very good running back as he finished with 3 TDs and over 140 yards on the ground for the 3rd gamne in a row. They have a good passing attack too and despite flu hitting the team this week it seems that most are playing with Davante Adams in the lineup.
Josh Jacobs to score seems the obvious pick here.
Andy Dalton has been named starter for the Saints, meh, he’s been playing fine but as shown last week can throw multiple INTs in a single game, his errors did cost them the game last week in fairness. Michael Thomas is a dick, Jarvis Landry is out again, so it’s all on Chris Olave once more. Juwan Johnson gets a lot of looks with Dalton, check on his health though, and Alvin Kamara is still great.
I like the over, I’d lean to the Raiders winning and covering.
Titans +1 at Texans: 39
Malik Willis makes his first start for the Titans and Tannehill hasn’t even travelled with the team so he’ll probably get the full game. As a result the line has gone from -3 to +1 for the top of the AFC South Titans.
Willis is mobile and will probably look to run, in theory with him and Henry they should be able to move the ball very well on the ground. Henry KILLS the Texans, with over 200 yards and multiple TDs on the ground in each of the last 3 games against them. That is ridiculous. They have pass-catchers somewhere, who cares.
The Texans are probably the worst team in the league, Cooks is banged up but likely to play although they may trade him this week so it seems silly risking injury on him. Nico Collins is out as well, so a lot of Dameon Pierce I guess.
RUSH RUSH RUSH RUSH. Gonna be a lot of that from both teams.
Titans win, therefore cover, I don’t care if they’ve got a backup QB, they’re not the Texans. Derrick Henry to score a brace – 10/3
Commanders +3 at Colts: 39.5
Christ. What a pile of crap.
Taylor Heinicke finished the game well last week after throwing some terrible attempts in the first quarter where he could have had 3 interceptions against him. He is a boost for Terry McLaurin who he looks for frequently. Brian Robinson gets most of the ground work and they’ve said this week they’re not trading Antonio Gibson.
The Colts have moved to Sam Ehlinger who will provide mobility and a big arm at least, important behind a poor offensive line. Michale Pittman and Alec Pierce have been good, their running game has not. Tough to know how they’ll look with the rookie coming in.
You’re a brave or stupid person if you’re taking either on the spread. Ehlinger OVER on his rushing yards looks today, although has been sneaking up, now at 25.5. Sam Ehlinger o25.5 rush yards
Giants +3 at Seahawks: 44.5
Giants are 6-1 and Underdogs again. The disrespect! They’ve been the best 4th quarter team in the league this year with Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones closing out games with their running. The passing game is rough, and after trading Kadarius Toney and losing Daniel Bellinger to injury as well as an offensive lineman missing out. Could be tough for them but after the season they’ve had they could still win.
The Seahawks have done well too but come in with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett both questionable or worse. Kenneth Walker has been a stud getting the starting job and he’ll likely get a lot of work again.
This should actually be a good game but I’m struggling for much to highlight. I’d probably go Seahawks covering but can’t back against the Giants who keep winning.
49ers -1 at Rams: 42
Talking of keeping winning,..Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers own the Rams. 9-3 against the spread in the regular season since these coaches took the reigns.
The 49ers will be looking stronger on paper with players returning and with Christian McCaffrey having 10 days in the system will likely give him more touches than last week where he looked very good with limited work on debut. Deebo is questionable but likely to play and Brandon Aiyuk and Goerge Kittle have been used more in recent weeks.
The Rams have been very disappointing this year and probably needed the bye week to get things right, McVay is 3-1 coming off a bye week. Their offensive line has been dismal and that’s cost them so far but they put Stafford under centre more last time they played, that should help the protection.
Cooper Kupp is the only player they bother using in the passing game, although the return of Van Jefferson to the team might change that. The run game is probably Darrell Henderson but there’s been talk of Roonie Rivers getting the ball tonight, something I’m probably not buying. He’s down around 3s everywhere other than Spredex who have him at 13/2 still.
49ers win and cover, McCaffrey scores twice in a 24-17 win. Book it. McCaffrrey 2 or more – 5/1 (Skybet)
Packers +10.5 at Bills: 47.5
I love seeing Arron Rodgers being terrible, he’s an awful team-mate as he showed by calling out everyone else this week and boasting that HIS personal PFF score was the best of the season as they lost to the Commanders. He won’t risk any interceptions when chasing the game because it will hurt his numbers, he’d rather lose than try a mildly risky pass, oh and he won’t allow the rushing game to do anything because then he wouldn’t be involved. Screw him.
Aaron Jones is much loved by him, but no-one else gets anything despite having two very good RBs. Allen Lazard is out this week too, god knows who’s going to get the ball.
The Bills are the best team in the league by some way and should do this easily coming off their bye week. Allen is the best QB, Stefon Diggs is one of the best WRs and their defense has done well despite injury this year. I’m hoping for Von Miller to get at least three sacks in this one.
Bills win, probably cover.
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