NFL Woche Zehn; Spielvorschau und Tipps; POST 500!!!

The NFL finally goes to Germany for the first time this week with the Seahawks taking on the Buccs in the early kick off for the week and it’s safe to say the stadium will be jumping. Us lot over here in England are lucky to have the games we have and it’s long overdue that Germany gets a chance to show off their fandom as the regional game over there far surpasses our own, so I’m expecting the 80,000 or so in the Allianz Arena to be wild.

A quick look back at last week, remember the bets I’m recording are the one’s I put in Bold on the game previews.

  • The Dolphins somehow didn’t manage to cover the 4 points winning by 3 and Justin Fields took over, so despite the fact I mentioned his over, I went, in the end for Herbert which didn’t happen
  • Next up was the Bengals game which FLEW over the total and Joe Mixon went over his receptions as part of his 5 TD game for the home side
  • Aaron Jones got injured for the Packers as they lost for the 5th time in a row
  • Stevenson scored for the Patriots and probably should have got his second, I said the Pats would win and cover, they did, but it wasn’t in bold…
  • Zach Wilson INT was not a banker at all, fair play to the kid he kept the ball safe
  • Antonio Gibson just the 2 receptionsNuk Hopkins just the 4, so they both lost
  • Bucs won and covered, but it was nowhere near the over and despite 7 receptions Chris Godwin only had 36 yards as they stalled out once more, directionally the right bet

Overall a frustrating loss on the night last weekend. I will bounce back this weekend, if you do make some profit please consider donating to the Royal British Legion on Remembrance Weekend.

Seahawks +2.5 vs Buccs: 45 (Deutschland)

Who would have thought at the start of the season that the best QB in this game would be Geno Smith, and the team with a winning record would be the Seattle Seahawks and not the Buccaneers in what is proving to be one of the worst divisions in football, god bless the South. Yet here we are in Week 10 of the season with the 6-3 Seahawks travelling over as underdogs against the 4-5 Buccaneers

My first thought on this one was the travel, but apparently the world isn’t flat so Seattle will go over the North pole and their trip only took 30 mins or so more than it did from Tampa, and from the tweets they’ve been putting out they seem pretty settled in Germany so there shouldn’t be an issue there on either side.

Geno Smith looks like he’s worked himself into the CBPOY award this year due to his very impressive performances, the Seahawks offense ranks 7th in offensive DVOA with the passing offense up at 5th, a fantastic achievement for someone who most thought was done in the NFL. It helps having studs on the field in the shape of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett who will both be in action here, and tend to share the workload. Outside of them two Will Dissly and Noah Fant at TE both get targets as do the running backs from the backfield.

Another probable award winner leads the running game with Kenneth Walker looking superb since getting the starting role after Rashaad Penny went down, he’s scored in each of their last 5 games with doubles in two of them, including last week where he topped 100 yards again. Travis Homer is the man behind him, but he’s impossible to take on anything betting related.

The Buccaneers snapped their losing streak thanks to a last-minute Brady drive which never really looked in doubt but they still haven’t managed to find any rhythm yet, due in part to a failure of a running game which constantly leaves them in 2nd and 3rd and long downs. There has been rumours around this week of rookie Rachaad White getting more of the workload on the ground with Lenny Fournette looking terrible. White’s rushing yard prop has been around 15-18 recently, it’s now popped up to 27.5 with the rumours, it’s tempting, his rec. yard is still at 15.5 which hasn’t bumped at all, tempting as well…

Tom Brady hasn’t actually been that bad this year but they just haven’t been converting drives, Mike Evans is of course still pretty good and will have a better time of it than he did against Ramsey last week, Chris Godwin got the targets and did nothing, and Julio Jones looks like he can string a run of games together finally, so they’re looking quite healthy in the passing game, there’s no real excuse not to do well last week. Cade Otten the rookie TE led the team in rec. yards last week and had the game winning TD, so Brady obviously trusts him, could be worth a look.

The Seahawks defense has been brilliant this year with rookies showing up in their first seasons, especially Tariq Woolen who sits second in the betting for DROY behind Sauce Gardner. I guess a defense with names Mike Jackson and Coby Bryant on it should be quite good. The Buccs defense on the other hand used to be very good at stopping the run but has been poor this year, yet DVOA ranks them top 10 still, which I’ll admit is a surprise.

Everything on paper says the Seahawks should win this one, but I can’t back against Brady finally getting things right. I’d be leaning to them still even though it goes against the numbers. White is the player I’d be looking at for props, o15.5 rec. yards my favourite of them. 13/10 for Kenneth Walker to score (WillHill) is too high for someone who’s scored in 5 games in a row.

Vikings +6.5 at Bills: 44.5

This line was 9.5 last week, 6.5 earlier this week and now down to 3 with revenge narratives leading the case for the Bills now with Case Keenum and Stefon Diggs facing their former team. Well, I assume it will be Keenum anyway, the news on Josh Allen has been negative all week as he finished last weeks game with an elbow injury which it turns out if a UCL sprain, an injury which led him to miss 4 games in his rookie season for the Bills.

The Vikings don’t have many issues when it comes to injury and the solid spine they have running through the team has done them well so far this season, Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson have proven enough to get them to a 7-1 record as they come into this one. It’s not been impressive with their point differential at just +32, but wins are wins and they seem to be able to notch them up.

Cousins sits 18th in QBR, which is where he should be, he’s an average QB but he gets the job done, as long as it’s a 6pm start, and that’s what we’ve got here; Dalvin Cook is 10th in yards and TDs so far and has found the endzone in his last 4 games while Justin Jefferson scored for the first time since the opening game of the season last weekend sits second in receiving yards this year. The addition of TJ Hockenson looked to pay off immediately last week where he finished with 9 from 9 for 70 yards, they’ll be hoping he’ll be even better with another week to learn the system. Oh shit, Adam Thielen is reliable as well.

Josh Allen has been responsible for 25 of the Bills 27 TDs this year so his (assumed) loss will be huge for them, the run game isn’t great with Singletary, James Cook and the newly acquired Nyheim Hines having to do the work, and it’s something they may have to lean on this week.

The passing game is usually explosive with Allen, but it’s tough to judge without him. Stefon Diggs has been the catalyst to the teams’ resurgence, he’s 3rd in rec. yards behind Jefferson on the other side, but he’s top in rec. TDs. Gabe Davis is the usual deep threat, his role may change without Allens’ arm under center and the likes of Isaiah McKenzie and Jamison Crowder may get more of the ball in the middle of the field, along with Dawson Knox.

I do think that Allen misses out and that makes this game impossible to bet on, there are not even any props I fancy on either side of the ball. – So. It looks like Allen is going to start, the line moved back up to 6.5 and the total ticked up 2 points on Sunday morning so the betting at least expects Allen to play.

Texans +4.5 at Giants: 41

The Texans have nothing other than Dameon Pierce who has looked brilliant this year and is keeping the betting in the OROY market at least a little alive behind Walker. He was on the injury report earlier in the week but should play.

The Giants come off their bye week with still not a whole lot at WR, I would assume Kenny Golladay doesn’t play, so Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton will have a decent percentage of what little they do in the passing game. But this game revolves around Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones on the ground. Barkley has a very high line at ~94 but the Texan’s run defense is shocking so I’m still tempted to go over.

I’ve not bought into the Giants at all this year, I struggle to take them to cover the 4.5 but they should win the game, and realistically should cover.

Browns +3.5 at Dolphins: 49.5

The Browns smashed the Bengals before their bye week, but they always do, so I’m throwing that game out of the window, other than that they’ve been keeping games close but prone to mistakes from a very average QB. So for this game I’m only really concentrating on Nick Chubb against the Dolphins run defense and figuring whether that will be enough. Dolphins are awful vs. the pass, but top 10 against the run… interesting.

Tua Tagovailoa. Fair play to him, I have to give him credit for getting the ball to Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill when they get open and for the most part he has been able to do that. Hill is on target to break Calvin Johnsons’ record this year and Waddle won’t be a million miles behind him either as Mike McDaniel’s offense has looked good this year. They brought Jeff Wilson straight into the game last week and he found the endzone, he and Mostert will be fine in the backfield there.

I like the Dolphins to win and cover at home. I’d lean under the total I don’t think it should be the highest of the week.

Lions +2.5 at Bears: 48.5

The Lions… someone make sense of the Lions for me? They beat the Packers last week due to 3 turnovers in the redzone, and TD’s from their backup TEs, that’s definitely not replicable. I bet their under, they blow up for huge points, I go the other way and they suck.

Jared Goff has been very poor outside in his career and Chicago is not the easiest place to play, it is going to be dry at least, but only just above freezing, not great conditions for a California kid. They should have D’Andre Swift taking more of the touches as he recovers from injury, Jamaal Williams is fine in replacement but doesn’t have the burst of the younger back. Amon-Ra St. Brown continues to haul in targets, and they find the rest of the team fairly well.

Justin Fields had the most rushing yards any QB has ever had last week finishing with 178 on the ground against the Dolphins, he’s gone over his rush line 4 weeks in a row now and I won’t be the person taking his under this week, his line has only gone up 10 or so to 59.5 now. I didn’t take it last week, I will definitely lean that way this week. They might give more to Montgomery and Herbert on the ground, but it’s not something I’ll look at.

Their passing game has looked better due to the threat of Fields running the ball as they look to continue their improvement through the year, Mooney scored and Cole Kmet notched up a couple last week, Chase Claypool is a person too.

Everything says the Bears win and cover, I agree with that. I’ve got nothing on the total, it’s either 24-7 to the Bears, or 35-42 to one of the teams, they’ve been hugely variable this year. Field o59.5 rush yards

Saints -1 at Steelers: 40

The Saints are missing their chance of an easy win in the NFC South this year as they continue to stumble through their schedule, a Monday night loss to the Ravens has them at 3-6 for the year, while the Steelers are 2-6 coming off their bye week with TJ Watt returning to the lineup.

Andy Dalton remains the starter, Michael Thomas remains a cunt, he’s now on IR with a poorly toe, bless him. Jarvis Landry probably won’t play either, the veterans just don’t seem to be able to shake their ailments this year, it has meant that Chris Olave has got to show his talent though and he is the best rookie WR this season, 6 for 71 last week. Juwan Johnson is the de facto 2 for them which isn’t a good place to be. Realistically it should mean a lot for Alvin Kamara both in the rushing and passing game, and obviously Taysom Hill is the ultimate wildcard.

The Steelers offense is not good with Kenny Pickett there, they have to start his as he’s the future but it’s not been pretty 8 interceptions, 36 QBR, there’s room for improvement I guess if you want to try and look positive. He does like George Pickens and while he’s made some highlight reel catches it’s not helped the team, the Steelers longest TD this year is 8 yards. EIGHT YARDS.

I want to take the Saints to win, but the Steelers are a different prospect with TJ Watt returning to the lineup, he may just consider this a warm-up for their game vs. the Bengals next week but he’s a difference maker. I got nothing.

Broncos +2.5 at Titans: 39.5

I doubt I’ll have anything from this game either, the Broncos had their bye week after a win in London but will they be any good this week? I wouldn’t, and won’t bet on it. While the Titans are obviously well coached but don’t have much of any interest from a betting standpoint.

The Broncos should be fine, but aren’t, they’ve got a solid start on paper, Mel Gordon isn’t bad, Courtland Sutton and Jerry Juedy should be fine at WR, and TE Greg Dulcich has looked good in his first season, but things just aren’t clicking for them on offense. Dulcich is the one guy I’ll be looking at for props.

The Titans don’t have a whole lot either, Derrick Heny is obviously a beast, the key to his team and likely to hit 25+ carries again here, but other than him the passing game is inept, Treylon Burks has been activated from IR, Robert Woods showed at the Rams he’s a capable receiver but they just can’t do a thing in the passing game. If Malik Willis starts then they’ve got no chance, if it’s Tannehill (as I expect) then they might do something.

I was hoping for a 40 or 41 on the total as it should be low scoring, but I’ll probably take the Broncos covering here. The Titans defense is their key and it’s missing Simmons and Dupree in the pass-rush which is going to really hurt them here. Broncos win and getting points obviously cover the spread.

Jaguars +9 at Chiefs: 51

More teams I just can’t trust here, the Jags finally scraped another win last week overcoming a 17-point deficit to beat the Raiders last week while the Chiefs stat-line suggested they should have won by double-digits last week but ended with an overtime victory against the Titans.

Trevor Lawrence exists. I doubt I’ll ever be a fan of him due to his many mistakes, but his numbers seem fine. Much like their divisional foes though the run game for them is key with Travis Etienne looking every bit like the player they drafted from Clemson with over 100 yards on the ground in the three games he’s been the lone man in the backfield for them, it has dropped his receiving though. The Jones’ bros are fine and Christian Kirk is average as well as the talent around Lawrence admittedly remains poor.

The Chiefs looks fantastic though, despite having no run game. They have Patrick Mahomes and apparently that’s all they need as he moves the ball to Juju and MVS as well as getting Kadarius Toney involved as well on debut. They will be without Mecole Hardman this week which logically should mean more for Toney in his second game for the team.

Not a whole to say here, I expect the Chiefs to deal with a sub-par opposition. Would I take them covering? Probably not. No lines available on Kad Toney at the moment, but I don’t mind the 7/2 to score at PP/Betfair

Colts +4 at Raiders: 41

Fuck knows what’s happening at the Colts, I think it was probably right that Reich went, but to replace him with someone who used to play for you who has no coaching experience and get rid of the coordinators? Seems stupid. They have no OL, a dreadful QB and a RB who’s been injured forever… The Raiders aren’t much better in fairness and lost Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow to IR this week.

The Colts just won’t put up more than 14 points. Jonathan Taylor should be back for this one, but do I trust him to do anything? Nope. The passing game isn’t worth talking about with Ehlinger under center either.

The Raiders are down to Jacobs and Adams in all reality. Derek Carr has shown talent in parts, and nothing in other parts this year making his team utterly untrustworthy, with the lack of anyone else Mack Hollins becomes a little interesting as does Foster Moreau at TE, but both under 3/1 to score is not worth betting. Abdullah at 11s would be the punt I’d take here.

Abullah anytime TD – 11/1 (PP/Betfair) – The Raiders really should win and cover.

Cardinals +2.5 at Rams: 39.5

Getting to 80% of the way through the slate and I realise that it’s a fucking terrible looking weekend! This game isn’t a whole lot better on paper, the Rams are horrible and the Cardinals aren’t a whole lot better this year either. Sean McVay owns the Cardinals and that’s probably the only plus worth mentioning for the Rams here.

It looks like this is a battle of the backups as the early morning news on Kyler and Stafford suggests they’ll both be missing out, so Colt McCoy vs. John Wolford. Yikes.

That news makes it incredibly difficult to figure out anything here, McCoy is mobile but obviously not to the extent of Murray. Recent weeks have seen Hopkins and Rondale Moore get a lot of the targets, I’d assume that with a backup and probably more for Zach Ertz at TE. James Conner is back in for the running game which should help them, but in fairness there’s not a whole lot I want to talk about here.

There’s not much to talk about for the Rams either, Wolford is definitely a lot more mobile than Stafford and has won games in relief before, his mobility might actually help them as a whole as the offensive line has been so poor this year but Stafford isn’t able to escape pressure, a more mobile QB could also help their non-existent run game which could see Kyrie Williams and Cam Akers back in the fold tonight, muddling an already confusing position.

Cooper Kupp is basically the only player you could trust with Stafford under center, I’d assume that’d be similar with a backup QB, although it may mean more for the players on the outer edges of the squad, Van Jefferson maybe get a few more targets. It’s all up in the air really

Sean McVay is 6-1-1 against the spread against the Cardinals since Kingsbury took over. But I doubt many of those were with backup QBs on either side, despite the awful start the Rams have had this year McVay is the better coach so you’ve got to lean with the Rams covering here.

Cowboys -4 at Packers: 44.5

This line has been dropping towards the Packers all week and I don’t understand it. They’re… I need more synonyms for Terrible as it’s a word I’ve used FAR too many times so far…they have been abhorrent this year. Unable to get the run game going and under-staffed in the passing game. Aaron Jones is good to go for them after leaving last weeks game with an injury so Rodgers his the only player he seems to trust playing, which is good for him.

My contempt for Rodgers has been made clear over the last year or so on here and it’s proving to have been for good reason, he has not been good and the three interceptions last week were so poor I expected to see Kenny Pickett under center. He still didn’t seem to take any blame for last weeks loss despite how poor he was.

So Jones and Dillon are in the backfield, but the offensive line issues aren’t helping either, Dillon tends to go between the tackles and they’ve been collapsing far too regularly while Jones is the more mobile and has looked a lot better this year, although both have just 1 rushing TD each. The passing game is without Romeo Doubs who had been fine this year, so down to Lazard and Sammy Watkins, two experienced but distinctly average pass catchers, Robert Tonyan should get targets at TE.

The Cowboys come off their bye week looking like they’ll be without Zeke Elliott once more, so probably another 15 or so carries for Tony Pollard who looked explosive as ever last time they played with 3 TDs against Chicago a fortnight ago, he did say he was fucked after his final carry though, so I think 15 is his limit, Malik Davis the other RB they have.

Dak Prescott looked very good against a poor Bears defense and injuries to the Packers secondary could help him out here as well, 21 from 27 and 2 TDs in a very easy game in Weeek 8. CeeDee Lamb found the endzone and topped his yardage line, Dalton Schultz got the targets you’d expect and Michael Gallup was also involved, so the gang were back together and did most of the damage through the air for them last time the Cowboys played.

I love the Cowboys here, especially with the line dropping, there’s all this talk of Rodgers clicking, but I don’t think it’s something that’s going to click. Probably lean to the under.

Chargers +7.5 at 49ers: 45

There seems to be more injuries than ever this year, especially to the so-called bigger players. Keenan Allen has missed most of the year and Mike Williams also misses out here as well, so the Chargers are down to Joshua Palmer and Deandre Carter once more. They have said that Justin Herbert is feeling close to full health for the first time since his rib injury but with so few targets on offense it may well continue to be largely dink-and-dunk, Gerald Everett has been the main beneficiary of this for most of the season.

Everett has been the biggest benefactor of the injuries in the passing game at least, but Austin Ekeler has been a stud since he was forced to be THE man in the team with 10 TDs in their last 5 games, 1 rush and 1 rec in 4 of those five, and doubles in all bar one of them. He’s the reason they’ve managed to win games without their pass-catching stars.

There are no real issues for the 49ers who are as healthy as they have been for months coming into this one. They will have Deebo and McCaffrey in as tandem for the first time since the former-Panther was traded to them. I eulogised on the Full10yards podcast, and honestly believe it could be the move which gets them to another Super Bowl, he’s only played two games for them but has already shown what he can add on the ground and through the air as he rushed, threw and received a TD in just his second game for the 49ers. They also welcome back Elijah Mitchell to the backfield to give them a little alternate style if they need.

George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk have stepped up well with Deebo Samuel missing, and him coming back just adds to what this offense will be able to cook up on any given snap.

The 49ers should win here and they should do it comfortably, but now it’s ticked over the 7 I won’t be able to take it.

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