Oh man, what the hell are the Raiders? What a random result on Thursday Night, I fell asleep with the Raiders 13-3 up, and they went on to lose 17-16 against a Rams team who started a QB who’d be with the team for roughly 4 hours. Well done Baker Mayfield, probably the finest moment of your on-field career, obviously doesn’t beat the adverts.
Week 14 of the season sees a huge 6 teams on bye this week, luckily none of them are particularly good, so we’re not missing out on too many betting options this week at least. There’s a lot of divisional games on the slate, Jets at Bills, Browns at Bengals the two standouts in the early slate, although Ravens at Steelers is always a hard-fought matchup on the other side of the AFC North as well.
The Giants and Eagles game is of, at the very least, some passing interest in the NFC East although the result looks like it will be fairly one-sided, while the Vikings could tie up the NFC North with a win in Detroit.
Crunch time is coming and as the weather gets colder the season heats up, listen to my thoughts on the Full10yards betting podcast here – https://anchor.fm/full10yards/episodes/F10Y-Betting-Week-14-e1s142b
As always our DraftKings contest will be running, 5 bucks entry, top 3 get paid, max of 30 entrants – Week 14 contest
Eagles -7 at Giants: 44.5
As the Bengals were on last week they couldn’t show the same team twice, so the early Sky game this week comes from the Metlife as the floundering Giants host the rampant Philadelphia Eagles in a match which could have implications in not only the division, but the conference as a whole with the Eagles looking to lock up the #1 seed while the Giants look to cling on to the wildcard spot they worked so hard early in the season to get into.
This is the first time they’ve met with a winning record so late in the season since 2010 when the Eagles went on to win the division while the Giants missed the playoffs despite finishing on 10 wins.
The Eagles dominated the Titans last week with AJ Brown enacting his revenge on the team who didn’t value him to the worth he thought he had, he was traded to the Eagles and that, as they say, is that. He notched 2 scores as the Eagles ran away with that game.
Jalen Hurts is still a potential MVP winner, and the odds have him a very close second at 7/5, he’s rushed for 9 scores this year and thrown for a further 20. They gave him weapons and he’s used them effectively behind one to the best offensive lines in the league, his mobility opens up the run game and they’ve utilised that perfectly as well, led by Miles Sanders who also has 9 rushing TDs on the season with Gainwell and Boston Scott supporting on the ground.
The passing game was led by AJ Brown as soon as he arrived on the team and his mix of strength and pace means he’s retained that role, but he’s got a brilliant #2 behind him in Devonta Smith who’s been a little hit or miss this year (as a fantasy owner it’s been difficult) but can put up big numbers if called upon. The loss of Dallas Goedert has been annoying with the backups not combining for much but they’ve worked around it without missing a step.
The Giants on the other hand have had a tough month. They were lucky to ever be in contention in the NFC East and it turns out they used up their luck early in the season as they have only won once in their last 5 games with a tie against the Commanders last week.
Daniel Jones is playing for a job and he’s been shafted by the distinct lack of receiving talent in the team, the “lead” back is Darius Slayton, behind him… Richie James, Isaiah Hodgins? It’s a shambles in fairness and that’s coming home to roost now.
The run game has been all Saquon Barkley and the over 30 carries they gave him a month or so ago seems to have overloaded him to the point where he’s now coming into this game as officially questionable according to Brian Daboll… it seems like they’re belatedly tanking the season…
Not a whole lot to say about this game after all that. The Eagles should win, and do it easily, I would be taking the Eagles to cover the 7. Eagles -4 in the first half is tempting too, they’re one of the best teams in the opening half of games this year.
Ravens +2 at Steelers: 36.5
It’s not official yet, but it seems like Lamar Jackson is missing this one so we’re looking at Tyler Huntley who closed out the game vs. the Broncos with a rushing score late on to keep them atop the AFC North. It is looking increasingly like that division is going to the Week 18 matchup between these Ravens and the Bengals with the tie-breaker between the two the division records, this could be an important match for Baltimore.
Games between the two are always hard-fought with the last 4 games decided by 3,1,5 and 4 points respectively, with the Steelers winning 3 of those 4 games even though Big Ben was complete and utter dogshit by that time in his career… all in all this should be a close game, the spread has flipped on the Huntley news, but I doubt it will get past 3 points.
So, Tyler Huntley, he’s basically Jackson-lite, his mobility helps the offense and you’d imagine they’ll be run-heavy as they look to move the ball against a decent defense. They will want more from Gus Edwards who was ineffective coming back from injury last week, and they need to use Kenyan Drake and the other backup RBs as well, they were not good against the Broncos last week.
The passing attack for the Ravens has been limited whomever is under center as they just don’t have any talent there outside of Mark Andrews, gadget plays to Devin Duvernay and pot shots to Desean fucking Jackson are about all there is, it’s not great.
Their defense is very good though, well done Ravens.
Kenny Pickett has improved as the season has gone along, he looked terrible early on, as you’d expect from a rookie who wasn’t given many of the 1st team snaps in pre-season, but seems like he’s settling into his job in the NFL, I’m sure playing in his college stadium probably helped things, his stats aren’t convincing… 4 passing TDs.
Weirdly his bestest buddy George Pickens did nothing last week, so I’d expect him to have a big game in this one as that’s the way these things work.
Pat Friermuth has shown as a reliable tight end and led the team in receiving yards last week while Diontae Johnson had a ton of targets last week without doing a whole lot with them, and outside of the three players mentioned… yeah it’s not great. Najee Harris has been on and off the injury report, it looks like he’s coming into this one with a clean bill of health behind a terrible offensive line, they actually had 7 different players with a rushing attempt in their win last week, with Benny Snell the main official backup on the ground.
You may have heard that Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record, and he’s looking to retain that record against the odds once more, but this team isn’t good. Mind you, the Ravens aren’t either, there’s a reason the total is so low. I have to lean to the Ravens covering this one, despite the fact that for maybe the first time ever, I want the Steelers to win.
Jaguars +3.5 at Titans: 41
Good luck if you know what Jaguars team is going to turn up week-on-week, they beat the Ravens and then got blown out by the Lions last week.
Keep an eye on the health of Trevor Lawrence this week, he looked like he’d be done for the year after getting folded up but managed to finish the game for the Jaguars, albeit in a completely ineffective manner. I have been harsh on him as the hype on him was so high, and while he’s shown glimpses with not the best talent around him, I’m still unsure on him.
He’s got a very good running back in Travis Etienne who was largely uninvolved as their defnese allowed so many points to the Lions early on last week, but in a game that will be very tight they should have Etienne involved to a large extent once more, the passing attack should be largely Christian Kirk against a Titans defense which is poor against slot receivers, and the Jones boys have been fine this year too. Whatever
The Titans are entirely “meh” as well, they should still win the division but they’ve severely stumbled in recent weeks having faced slightly better opposition. Derrick Henry has dropped off this last month and without him dominating on the ground they don’t have a whole lot.
It looked like Treylon Burks with living up to his 1st round pick before getting knocked out on a TD catch last week and without him (as seems likely) they’re fucked in the passing game, Robert Woods, Nick Westbrook-Ikhene just won’t get things done, although I’ll be looking at Chig Okwonkwo, the TE who has had some big games this year, if his line is down around 15 again then I’ll happily take the over.
The Titans defense is the better of the defensive units and should get pressure on Lawrence up front, but I have to lean to the Jaguars getting the points, although the fact they’ve lost 9 of the last 10 games between these two teams makes it a no-bet.
Browns +5.5 at Bengals: 46.5
So, Joe Burrow can easily beat the Chiefs, but can’t win against the Browns, crazy stuff, he’s 0-3 against their Ohio rivals in his time with the Bengals, and despite the seeming disparity in quality of these teams, It’s something I can’t go against.
Deshaun Watson returned for the Browns last week and was predictably utterly terrible, they had the ability to let him throw the ball as they were playing the worst team in the league but he did nothing with those chances and the lack of run game hurt them, but 3 defensive/special team scores will always be enough to beat the Texans, although it’s obviously not replicable.
They may be without Amari Cooper who popped up on the injury list on Friday night, he’s by some way their best pass-catcher although David Njoku should be back at tight end, surely they’ll look to Chubb and Hunt on the ground in an area they’ve had success vs. the Bengals before.
The Bengals once again beat the Chiefs last week with Ja’marr Chase returning and with Joe Mixon back this week will be at near full strength on offense, although Hayden Hurst will miss out at TE for them. They have said that Mixon is their RB1 (he did score 5 TDs last time he played) but you’d imagine they’ll mix in Samaje Perine more than he had been after he’s carried the load perfectly over the last few weeks.
The performance of Tee Higgins with Chase out, and even with him earlier in the year has been a huge boost for the Bengals this year it offers them such options on offense, they may well both hit 1,000 yards this year and should do well against this Browns defense.
Myles Garrett will cause issues for a Bengals OL which has been very good in recent weeks, if they manage to slow one of the best edge rushers in the league, then the sky is the limit for them. The Bengals D on the other side of things has been outstanding as well and the return of DJ Reader should be huge in stopping the run.
Bengals really should win and cover but the hoo-doo is real and I can’t go against it.
Vikings +2 at Lions: 52
The 10-2, NFC North winning, 2nd in the NFC Vikings are underdogs against the 5-win Lions, and I’m not sure I can argue it.
The Vikings have turned from close losses last year to close wins this year with the change in coaching yet none of the betting market seems to be buying into them. Fair enough they got lucky to beat a Jets team who just couldn’t convert their chances last week.
Kirk Cousins never gets respect, and that too might be fair, I think he’s easily good enough to take them to the playoffs, but until he proves he can do it in prime-time (as, in fairness he did vs the Patriots) there will always be questions over him when push comes to shove. I say it every week though, with Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson the core of the team is strong enough to carry them even with a terrible defense. Outside of the big 3, TJ Hockenson has come in and done well, KJ Osborn was getting a lot of usage with Jefferson locked up for a lot of the game last week and Alexander Mattison scored as well.
The Lions though… They’re going to win the Super Bowl next year. Well, maybe not, but they’re looking very good on offense, have a host of picks and a ton of cap space, a Super Bowl run in a division with the Bears and possibly Packers in transition could be winnable, and you never know from there.
Jamaal Williams will probably score from inside the 5-yard line as he has done for most of the season, D’Andre Swift looks like he might finally be healthy enough to have a decent amount of carries as the 1a and 1b partnership. Amon-Ra St. Brown has kept his form from the end of last season and Jameson Williams made his debut in very limited fashion last week as DJ Chark topped 100 yards against his former team.
God knows on this spread, I would have to lean to the Vikings, but there’s no confidence on either side here, both are capable of shitting the bed. Overs seems the obvious look though.
Jets +10 at Bills: 43
This hovered around just under 10 for a lot of the week before ticking up to double-digits on Friday night, and staying there through Saturday.
The Jets started terribly last week and in the end should have won their game against the Vikings, but red-zone efficiency was non-existent as they seemed to be averse to running the ball when they got close. Mike White actually threw 57 times which doesn’t seem like a sensible way to win a game, but Zonovan “bam” Knight still topped 100 on the ground. Garrett Wilson looks like the real deal with a half-adequate QB throwing the ball and Corey Davis had a decent game in catch-up mode for most of the game.
The Jets have been feisty all year and a win here would give them the sweep over their divisional rivals after a close win in NY where Josh Allen finished with an elbow injury.
The Bills now have it all in their own hands as they currently sit in the #1 seed spot after the Chiefs loss last week. They stumbled a little but seem back to form in recent weeks and the Diggs/Allen combination usually works, although Sauce Gardner vs. Diggs will be fun, he was restricted to just 5 receptions in the first matchup, 3rd fewest of the season although he did turn that into 93 yards. Isaiah McKenzie has been reliable in the slot while Gabe Davis is hit-or-miss, more miss in recent weeks.
The ground game has got going a bit and their match against the Patriots 10 days ago had all 3 of their backs involved with Devin Singeltary taken the main workload but Nyheim Hines and rookie James Cook getting carries with the game still alive.
Should be a good one and I think the Jets keep it relatively close so I’ll take them covering the 10 points, lean under on the total which makes sense if you’re taking the J-E-T-S.
Texans +17 at Cowboys: 44
The worst team in the league against the form team of the league. The Texans are without Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins… so Chris Moore leads the WR group? It’s horrible. Davis Mills looks like he’s back in at QB, and due to how terrible they are not even Dameon Pierce is doing anything any more.
The Cowboys offense has been electric since Dak Prescott came back in, and they’ve stumbled on some gold giving Tony Pollard more on the ground in his split with Zeke, Pollard gets them up the field, Zeke finishes the short-yardage stuff. It’s been working well.
The passing game has been good too, Ceedee Lamb, Michael Gallup and Dalton Schultz the main guys there with a few others mixing in as well, it’s a well-balanced team, one that ranks as #1 in some peoples power rankings…I’m not having that, but they have been very impressive in recent weeks.
The Cowboys defense is probably the best in the league and the 33 points they scored in the 4th quarter was largely due to them. Micah Parson the DPOY-elect is a stud, well done Cowboys.
Will they cover 17 though? Adam Chernhoff thinks so… I can’t do it. Stay away from me.
Chiefs -9 at Broncos: 44
The league moved Patrick Mahomes out of prime-time… That’s how bad this Broncos team is.
The Chiefs will be looking to bounce back after another loss to the Bengals last week, they dominate the AFC West so their record against the Broncos is impressive and they should get a win here despite the Broncos defense being the best in the league. Kadarius Toney misses out once more with his hamstring injury, but other than that they’re doing fine at WR as it looks like Juju Smith-Schuster will be playing despite seemingly being taken out of the game last week with concussion.
Travis Kelce is, as always the key man here, he has a mixed record against the Broncos, but scored the last time they played each other last January.
It hardly seems worth talking about the Broncos, things obviously aren’t working there, Russell Wilson is having a terrible year, Carson Wentz has thrown more TDs and he’s barely played this year. Latavius Murray is the lead back. Jerry Jeudy should play here. but Courtland Sutton is out. So Greg Dulcich probably gets a lot of the ball in this one.
Their defense is outstanding but surely they give up sooner rather than later with zero help from the other side of the ball.
I can’t do it with the Chiefs though, they should cover, but this defense worries me and I don’t want to take such a spread. Definite lean to the Chiefs though, and a 44 total on a Chiefs game?! I can’t even take the over there, the Broncos are 9-0 to the under in their last 9 games.
Buccaneers +3.5 at 49ers: 37
Tom Brady vs Brock Purdy. Just what we all wanted.
The Buccs have stumbled through the season safe in the knowledge that their division is terrible and their comeback win against the Saints on Monday pretty much secures it for them. Brady and Evans aren’t simpatico, so it’s Chris Godwin who is likely to be the lead WR in the team this week. Cade Otton looks like he’s a decent TE but they keep going back to the oldies there, just give him the ball all the time… Rachaad White has done adequately on the ground, Lenny Fournette is probably back to add some more experience in the backfield though.
The 49ers came from behind against the Dolphins with Mr. Irrelevant, the final pick of the draft Brock Purdy coming in as relief to Jimmy Garoppolo and doing what we required as they ran out comfortable winners in the end, it’s not a QB-reliant offense and their defense is one of the best in the league, so was more than enough to beat a previously very free-scoring ‘fins team.
Christian McCaffrey has been a little banged up, he usually is, but it seems like he’s off the injury report here, as is Deebo Samuel, so they’re going to be at pretty much full strength on that side of the ball. Jauan Jennings found the endzone, and usually WR3/4’s do well with backup QBs as they have more familiarity through practice than with the usual starters.
49ers defense should have enough to get the job done and I don’t trust the Buccs one little bit. 49ers cover the spread, over on a low total.
Panthers +3.5 at Seahawks: 44.5
I was all ready to take the Seahawks covering the spread here, then I remembered they don’t have any running backs left after Kenneth Walker went down last week. Tony Jones is pretty much the only healthy guy left and he’s been a bit-part player wherever he’s been, although it seems that Travis Homer will be available as well, so two bit-part players.
The passing game is fine though, Geno has maintained his form and DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are a very good duo.
The Panthers should have D’onta Foreman back after their bye week, he’s put up some good numbers as the main back, and Sam Darnold made the offense look much better getting the start last time they played. He and DJ Moore have a connection and with him looking to get a job after this year he’ll be giving it his best.
Stay away from me once more, but I do still like the Seahawks winning and covering against a poor Panthers team.
Dolphins -3 at Chargers: 52.5
The NFL correctly shifted this game into prime-time and it should be a fun high-scoring game to close out the Sunday slate.
The Dolphins flopped last week having finally gone up against a good opposition, Tua looked off his game from quite early on, although Tyreek Hill still had over 100 yards and a TD. Jaylen Waddle was in and out of last weeks game but seems like he’s fine to go, and Trent Sherfield is annoyingly involved as well. Mike Gesicki has popped up occasionally, but realistically they rely on balance and the run-game which has been so good all season let them down significantly last week.
They are probably without both tackles once more which doesn’t help the offense at all, and they’ll be hoping Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert step back up again, they do get to go against a Chargers defense which is terrible against the run, so it’s a good spot for them.
Justin Herbert has rarely had his main players available on offense but should finally welcome back Mike Williams alongside Keenan Allen in the passing game, with them two, Deandre Carter, Josh Palmer and Gerald Everett in that area they’re looking a lot better than for most of the season.
Austin Ekeler has proven his worth this year with the increased workload they’ve had to give him, so it’s looking positive on offense finally although the OL injuries have been an issue for them.
I like the Chargers to win and cover, I prefer the over though. YAY POINTS.
No real picks this week as I’ve got a busy one with the family but hopefully the previews still help lean one way or another.