Well, CJ Stroud is pretty good isn’t he? Blowing up all those narratives about inexperienced QBs entering the playoffs he had a near perfect passer rating as he completed just 16 passes for 274 yards and 3 TDs against a Browns team which I said weren’t very good on the road and against Agent Flacco who completed his work for the Ravens by getting Browns’ fans hopes up before dashing them in the biggest spot they’ve had in a few years. I did say the Texans were a ball-hawking defense and he’d been prone to turn-overs… however I did also say I thought the Browns would still win and cover, which wasn’t anywhere near looking like the correct side. The over cruised in though. I also have Stroud rush yards which didn’t happen as the game-script was comfortable for the Texans and gave them the opportunity to rest him in the 4th quarter. If the Bills win tomorrow (postponed from tonight) then the Texans go to Baltimore and I think that’s the end of the road for them.
The Chiefs got their job done in relative ease, they stacked the line of scrimmage to stop the Miami run game and forced Tua to throw, which he couldn’t do in the restricting cold in KC. Rashee Rice had a great game, he and Kelce were responsible for 201 of Mahomes’ 262 passing yards. Kelce had a number of drops in the first half but in the end the strong defensive showing that they’ve put up all season long helped them over the line as the Dolphins couldn’t move the ball at all. I did back Mostert and Pacheco, but that looked dead as anything at the half and the second half didn’t improve for the Dolphins, I thought they’d at least be able to matriculate down the field once more to get an attempt at a rushing TD.
The lack of offense from the Dolphins kyboshed my both teams to score a rushing TD treble, although the 7/4 came through in the earlier game, the 5/4 in the late one was nowhere.
I think we get Texans at Ravens, meaning that we then get the Chiefs on the road at Buffalo next weekend which could be a cracking game. In fact both of them should be entertaining depending on whether Buffalo is under a thick blanket of snow.
On to the NFC for tonight then. If you’ve somehow not seen the news, the Buffalo vs. Pittsburgh game has been moved to 2130 (GMT) on Monday meaning we’re down to 2 games tonight, 2130 and 110 and blessed with a double-header tomorrow. The weather in Buffalo doesn’t look a whole lot better on Monday but travel restrictions look like they’ll be lifted so people can actually get to the stadium.
Packers +7 @ Cowboys: 50.5
The Mike McCarthy bowl as his former team come down to Dallas to take on his Cowboys in what could be the highest-scoring game of the weekend, although it will have to clear the total by a decent distance to top the Texans beat-down from last night. The Cowboys should get their points though, they average around 31 points at home this season and then it’s whether a young, talented Packers team can get to 20+ points against a solid defense.
The Packers were win and in last weekend while the Cowboys needed to beat the Commanders to secure the division and the 2 seed, which both teams achieved with relative ease. The Packers are typically poor vs. the run but slowed the Bears down easy enough while the Cowboys had a slight scare early on, trailing 10-3 at one point before pulling away for an easy win in the end.
We’ve got another first-time QB situation here with Jordan Love in his first season as a starter against Dak Prescott who’s made the playoffs a few times but done very little as the Cowboys tend to go out early in the post-season. They still haven’t made the NFC Championship game since 1995, but this year could be the one that changes that.
The Packers have had a strange season, started fine, dropped off in the middle before storming home at the end of the season to be here now, an offensive strong and very young team with a bright future ahead of them. Jordan Love has looked good on the whole, he has a lot of Favre and Rodgers about him and he’ll take shots down the field if needed. In fact since week 9 PFF has him ranked second to only Brock Purdy as a QB (although they did think Kenny Pickett would be a breakout star, so, maybe they can’t be trusted).
They have a talented bunch of young pass-catchers with the emergence of Jayden Reed in recent weeks proving the main spark in that area, at least 6 receptions or 100 yards in the final month and 3 TDs in those games as he lived up to his high draft pick. It does look like Christian Watson will be available for this game which adds another option to the mix, if he does play he may well take away a little from Reed but the rookie has shown his ability. Those two are the top guys but Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks and recently Bo Melton have all shown ability in the passing game as well, Melton coming on strong in the last few games. Tucket Kraft has done well at TE for them, and Luke Musgrave come off IR to return to the line-up last weekend too as they get stronger for the playoffs.
Aaron Jones had the backfield to himself last week and ran for over 100 yards against the Bears, it looks like that will be the situation here as well with AJ Dillon officially doubtful with a neck injury. Jones has been hampered by injury all year so last week was a big positive for him.
They’re fine on defense and should have Jaire Alexander back, an important player against a high-powered passing attack. They’re top 10 against the pass, bottom 5 against the run this year.
Are the Cowboys the Dolphins of the NFC? They murder poor teams (as they have done all season at home) and struggle against better teams? I think they’re a better team all round than Miami but there may be the same issues when the going gets tough. Their home form has been absurd for two seasons now and they come into this won having won 16 in a row, that may well be 18 by the end of next weekend…
Dak Prescott is having the best year of his career and could be top 3 in MVP betting when that gets announced next month, he lead the league with 36 TDs in the regular season, mainly thanks to the connection he has had with Ceedee Lamb since their bye week which is statistically the best in the league but he uses his other guys when needed as well. He’s only really had one poor game in their last 12, in poor weather in Buffalo, the rest he’s had a minimum of 95.2 passer rating, he has only had 2 rushing TDs though, something that used to be a good addition to his game.
CeeDee Lamb made a late push for offensive player of the year and ended the season just 50 yards behind Tyreek Hill at the top of the WR charts as he took a step forward to be one of the best WRs in the league finishing the season with 13 from 13 targets, 98 and 2 TDs through the air as well as a couple of rushing TDs. That 12-game run that Dak had with great passer ratings… Lamb scored in 9 of those games, and had 98 or more yards in 8 of them, he’s been really quite good. Alongside him Brandin Cooks has been able to get free and deep down the field, Jalen Tolbert and Michael Gallup are the 3 and 4 and they’re well supported at tight end as well. Jake Ferguson has been reliable all year although his TDs have dropped off towards the end of the season and they’ve got other options with Hendershot and Schoonmaker as well who pop up every now and then with scores.
The run game is mainly Tony Pollard but they have used Rico Dowdle a little more towards the end of the year as the bruiser in that position, you can’t beat a little thunder and lightning in the run game.
They have a very good pass defense with Da’ron Bland leading the league with 9 interceptions, 5 of them returned for TDs at corner. Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence will get pressure up front and the speed they’ve got about the defense makes it tough for teams to get going.
This should be a very fun game, we know the Cowboys will score points as they have all year but the Packers have shown they can give a good performance on offense as well so I do think it will be high-scoring and I’ve gone over on the total. It’s tough to look beyond the Cowboys covering the 7 points and it’s probably worth taking now that it’s dropped off the 7.5 it had been all weekend. If you can do teasers then it’s the perfect teaser leg (pair it with the Rams later and don’t think any more about it).
Player prop-wise? We know CeeDee Lamb will get his but I don’t like taking o100.5 yards, or o7.5 receptions at 4/6, he should get both, sure, but they’re correctly very high. I prefer things like Rico Dowdle 1.5 receptions at 7/4. The return of Christian Watson muddies the waters a bit for Packers receivers. I was high on Bo Melton o20-ish but I guess they don’t think he’ll play with Watson back so there’s no line available on him at the moment. Outside shot for a TD? One of the Cowboys TE’s, Hendershot and Schoonmaker are both 11/1 depending where you look. Jalen Tolbert – 7/1 (PaddyPower) is probably my one guy for a longshot.
Rams +3 @ Lions: 52
The Stafford/Goff bowl as both QBs face their former teams in this one and it’s tough to say that the trade that got us to this point hasn’t worked out very well for both players. Stafford has a well-earned Super Bowl ring and Goff is playing the best football of his career leading the Lions to their first NFC North title. Statistically the likeness between the two of them since that move is incredible as well;
- Both have 24 wins
- Both have 66% completion percentages
- Goff has three more TDs; 78-75
- Both have 41 turnovers
- Goff has a slightly better passer rating – 96.5-95.8
Could Goff have done it in LA? I doubt it, but he has shown he’s not the laughable joke that many thought when he moved over to the Lions.
The Rams finished the season strong and showed many (including me) that with a few stars the Super Bowl window might not be closed quite yet. The return of Kyren Williams from an injury that had him out for a month or so has been the main catalyst for their second-half run and they have been incredibly impressive in that span. Since the return of their star runner Matthew Stafford had 6 of 7 games with a 100+ passer rating and the only game they lost was a weather-affected game in Overtime on the road to the best team in the AFC, and even that needed a Ravens kick return to finish it off. Stafford has been a top 10 QB since he entered the league and even now 14 season into his career he’s showing he can still do it.
The Rams nailed a few players on their draft this year, but they made the best use of them with the best rookie WR EVER and a potential DROY among their selections. Puka Nacua was chosen in the 5th round but has been excellent alongside Cooper Kupp and will likely be his successor, he set rookie records for receptions and yards with a small part in the final game of the season and he notched up 6 TDs along the way, he’s a great route runner with good hands and should be a star for years to come. Cooper Kupp returned from injury and has had a good year on the other side of things, but while he’s still capable of it, he hasn’t had to be the main man every single game which should help prolong his career as a top WR. Tutu Atwell is liked by Stafford as a deep threat and Demarcus Robinson has chipped in as well. Tyler Higbee still leads the TE room, he’s only scored in one game this year, although he did get 2 in it.
Kyren Williams has been a star in this rush offense and despite missing a large chunk of the year finished 3rd in rushing yards and 7th in rushing TDs as well as being a useful target through the air for the Rams, he scored in all bar one of the games at the back end of the season and finished his year with a hatty against the Giants. He’ll be key in this one. Behind him they’ll use Royce Freeman and Ronnie Rivers but neither are very good, frankly.
They’ve been fine on defense, led as always by Aaron Donald who still gets triple-teamed frequently and backed up by a good group of young players with Kobie Turner getting talked about as the best rookie defender in the league this year.
The Lions are hosting their first playoff game since 1993 as they hit the post-season for the second year in a row under Dan Campbell. He’s a fun, aggressive coach and it’s safe to say his players love going out there for him. I do question him having his stars on the field last weekend and the injury to star rookie TE Sam LaPorta could prove vital assuming he misses this one.
Jared Goff finished the year 2nd in yards, 4th in TDs and 11th in QBR this year, I think he’s a top 10 QB and he’s about there on numbers. He had a rough month or so around thanksgiving where things fell apart slightly and he’s not great playing outside, but at home in Detroit he tends to be thrive.
They don’t have the deepest passing attack but Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the best young WRs in the league and Sam LaPorta set records for his position during the regular season. St. Brown finished the season 3rd in yards and scored 10 TDs in 10 different games (of 16 he played). Behind him you’re looking at speedster Jameson Williams to pop up and Josh Reynolds to help out when on the field. Donovan Peoples-Jones came in from the Browns without too much impact. They will need Brock Wright to step in for LaPorta at TE, which he can do to a small extent.
The main point on offense for the Lions though is the run game which is split fairly evenly now between David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Monty finished the year with 13 TDs (something I pushed a lot at the start of the season where his line was a stupid 5.5) and he finished with 3 games in a row with a rushing score despite Gibbs getting more of the ball in the backfield. Gibbs came on strong after being eased into the team and his explosiveness makes him one of the more fun RBs to watch both rushing and receiving out of the backfield, although they seem to have limited his catches in recent weeks.
The Lions defense has had a rough end to the season although it is getting a little healthier and has CJGJ back in the lineup now. Aiden Hutchinson will lead the pass rush (look for him running like Waluigi against his opponent.
This isn’t an easy one to pick and it seems like every man and his dog is selecting the Rams to win outright, including myself and the rest of the F10Y betting group. It does worry me a little that we’re all on that side and the line has barely moved, although it has come onto the 3 now from 3.5 for most of the week. I have to stick to the Rams side of things here, and over on the total.
Prop-wise? 8/11 is actually a fairly decent price on Kyren Williams scoring, 9/4 for him and Monty, and 5/6 for both teams to score a rushing TD all look like sensible bets despite the short odds. Longer odds? I’ll have to go Brock Wright at 11/2 on PaddyPower and maybe a quid or two on a cheeky double with Tutu Atwell at 10/1 on the same site.
I like Kyren o17.5 receiving yards as well, but there’s not much else out there that I’m a fan of for props here actually. Should be a fun night of football!
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