For the first time in a few years I’m entering the play-offs as a neutral fan and I’m quite looking forward to it. Unsurprisingly I do think the Ravens and 49ers are rightful favourites for the Super Bowl and I’m not entirely sure who can stop them on their path, but there are some interesting games coming up this weekend, although the weather looks like it could have a significant impact on the AFC side of things.
If it’s not the Bengals then it’s the Texans getting the “privilege” of kicking things off with the earlier Saturday game, they get to host the Browns in a dome in Houston. The Saturday evening game sees the Dolphins travel to the tundra of Arrowhead where it’s expected to be -20f or so and things don’t get much better for the AFC on Saturday night with the Bills hosting the Steelers in what looks like will be a blizzard game.
The prime spot for UK viewers on Sunday sees the Mike McCarthy bowl as the Cowboys host the Packers in what should be a high-scoring game, as should the Matthew Stafford bowl with the Rams at the Lions in Detroit. The weekend rounds off on Monday night with the stumbling Eagles going down to Florida to take on the Buccaneers in what might actually be a fairly competitive game.
| Team | Super Bowl Odds |
|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 9/4 |
| Ravens | 16/5 |
| Bills | 13/2 |
| Cowboys | 8/1 |
| Chiefs | 11/1 |
| Eagles | 22/1 |
| Lions | 22/1 |
| Dolphins | 28/1 |
| Browns | 30/1 |
| Rams | 50/1 |
| Texans | 66/1 |
| Buccs | 80/1 |
| Packers | 80/1 |
| Steelers | 125/1 |
No surprise to see the two 1 seeds atop the betting odds, but obviously there’s no real value there. Best thing to do from now is predict your winners and see who they’ll be getting in the next round. The Bills were the form team coming in and will be at home next week if they get through, I think the Browns will be the shock of the AFC this week, but then again, most people do. So they’d be on the road to the Ravens, a team they know how to beat, if they did that they’d be on the road again in either KC or Buffalo, so it would be a tough run hence the 30/1 price for them, but they might be the value of the AFC side of things.
The 49ers have beaten their main competitors in the NFC with ease this year so won’t fear anyone, although I have said all year I’m worried about Purdy then things get tense in the playoffs, we’ll see how he goes there. There could be a couple of shocks on the NFC side, I like the Rams to win in Detroit and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Bucs got a win although that’s probably the toughest game to call of the whole weekend. That would put the Rams in SF for a divisional re-match and have Cowboys hosting the Bucs in a gimme game. 49ers v Cowboys would be a heck of a Championship game!
If you’re quick you still have time to get into my Playoff Picks Contest – TDTips Playoff Picks Contest – £20 Entry and we’re looking at over £500 in the prize pool for the playoffs now, could be a nice treat after the Super Bowl finishes the season!
Browns -2 @ Texans: 44.5
No weather to worry about here, but there is a big rest disparity as the Browns let most of their starters sit last week while the Texans essentially had a playoff game last week beating the Colts to win the South and get the 4 seed. There are actually quite a few “trends” which you may or may not want to follow in this one, all of which lean towards the Brownies.
The team with the harder strength of schedule in the regular season has a pretty impressive win percentage over their opponents, the Browns were 10th, Texans 28th in SoS in the regular season so it’s safe to say that one is pretty obvious, then we’ve got the ole Rookie vs. Non-Rookie QB – Rookies have only won about a third of their first playoff games at QB, although CJ Stroud has had arguably the best rookie season in recent history, so I’m not following that one too blindly.
Then there’s Joe Flacco, taking the field for a playoff game 9 years after his last, the second longest gap between games after Doug Flutie. Remarkably Flacco is a couple of wins behind Aaron Rodgers and already has more than Drew Brees and Russ Wilson. He might not have done it himself but he can make it work with a good defense and the Browns have that.
These two faced each other on Christmas Eve with the Browns winning 36-22 with Amari Cooper blowing up for 265 yards and a couple of TDs, Flacco and Cooper apparently both set records for Air yards according to Next Gen Stats, I doubt the Texans will let that happen again.
The Browns couldn’t run the ball in that game but that is their main strategy so I expect they’ll try and get that sorted here, Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt tend to share carries, in fact they’ve not run the ball well for the last month really. That’s why Flacco has been so productive through the air, he will throw interceptions (he has more in his few games than Stroud does all season 8 vs. 5) but he’ll throw for 300+ yards, he’s the first Browns QB to have 4 games in a row with over 300 yards, which is absurd. Amari Cooper needed the rest last week and will be fine for this one, he’ll be the main target once more with David Njoku not too far behind him. The talented TE has at least 6 receptions in each of those 4 x 300 yard games with Flacco and has 4 TDs over that time including against the Texans who are 6th worst in the league in receptions to TEs. They’re a little shallow beyond the big two, Elijah Moore will get a few catches and Cedric Tillman has been chipping in a little and David Bell broke away for a score at Christmas as well.
The defense is the main strong point for the Browns though and has been one of the best in the league this year although it is considerably better at home than on the road. They could be without Denzel Ward after he injured his knee in practice, although he has said he’ll play and their scheme does match up fairly well against the Texans main threat – Nico Collins.
I’ll be honest, I expected the Texans to be terrible, I backed CJ Stroud to go under his yards on the year with the likes of Nico Collins and Bobby Trees as his WRs, but I’m glad I’ve been proven wrong as CJ Stroud is great fun to watch and really highlights how badly the Panthers fucked things up. He is most definitely the OROY (Sorry Puka) and is getting ranked in the top 5 of rookie QBs all-time! Having watched him against win against the Bengals earlier in the year he’s definitely got something about him, he was well protected but his mid-deep balls were on the money every single time.
The good news for the Texans this week is that they’re expecting Noah Brown and Robert Woods to play which at least gives them options outside of Dalton Schultz and Nico Collins. Collins was expected to be a WR1 when they drafted him and has shown that with a good QB back there, typified by 195 and a TD in their game last week which got them to this point. Woods hasn’t done a whole lot for the Texans but is fine in the slot and Noah Brown has become ‘something’ in this offense, so having more bodies there should help them. Schultz has been a touch annoying to bet on, he’s been inconsistent and having other WRs back I’d be leaning under on his reception props.
The run game has been taken over by Devin Singletary who’s done a decent enough job on the ground and is capable catching out of the backfield as well, only 4 rushing TDs on the ground and averaging a touch over 4 yards per carry isn’t great but he can take the workload and give Stroud a little support. Dameon Pierce apparently doesn’t work too well with zone blocking hence the reason he’s been benched but he did score a kick return TD vs. the Browns a month ago.
Defensively they are ball-hawks but do give up a lot of yardage and points.
The more I think about it, the more I think the Texans have a chance, but the Browns defense should see them through here. I like the road team to win and cover and I like the Overs. CJ Stroud o11.5 rushing yards (5/6 Skybet) – He’s a young, mobile back and with the season on the line I think he’ll scramble more. – I do like Singletary o16.5 receiving yards, one I’ve pushed a lot this year. TD scorer at a bigger price? I guess it would have to be Andrew Beck who’s 11/1 at PP/Betfair – There’s not really any I’d take but they do bring him in at the goal-line and he scored last week.
Dolphins +4.5 @ Chiefs: 43.5
It’s expected to be a bit fucking chilly at Arrowhead tonight, one of the coldest games in history in fact as they’re looking at -30f with wind-chill taken into calculation, that’s -34 Celsius…and it really doesn’t sound fun. With the game kicking off in the evening local time the temperature will drop off even more as the game goes on. It’s meant to be quite windy as well, teams can cope OK in cold temperatures but bring in 20+ MPH winds as well and we’re looking at probably a lower-scoring affair.
The strength of schedule stat from the first game? Chiefs 24th vs. Dolphins 29th so both had cake-walk schedules on the whole this season.
If you’ve read any of my previews this season you’ll know I’m not exactly high on the Dolphins, especially their ability to beat a good team, as they have shown all year they can’t do that, losing on the road to winning teams by around 2 TDs per game, and they were 21-0 down at half time to the Chiefs when they faced each other in Germany earlier this year before KC coasted out the second half. Then there’s the fact that they’re a warm-weather team, with a warm-weather QB going to the coldest game in a long time…oh and they’re riddled with injuries. It’s probably the worst spot the Dolphins could have found themselves in.
Tua Tagovailoa has been good this year, he’s got through the season without injury despite having an offensive line which has been beating up and changes every single week. He gets the ball out quickly and has looked calm in the pocket on the main. Honestly, I can’t say much else about him without sounding like I hate him. He’s a fine QB who does his job well. He is 0-4 in temperatures under 40f, and 6-13 in temps u70 (which is pretty mild really).
HOWEVER, the good thing for the Dolphins is that they are well-coached and they scheme the offense well, so with the passing game probably not having a stellar night the run-game should be the go-to for both sides and the combination of Mostert, Achane and even Jeff Wilson, to me, is stronger than just Pacheco on the other side of things. Mostert had a couple of weeks off to heal up from ankle and knee injuries and should be good to go here while Achane adds the spark with his ability to get up to speed so quickly. Jeff is there too. They should get 30+ carries between them here and try to dominate on the ground.
Tyreek Hill returns to KC after leading the league in receiving yards this season and he shouldn’t have any issues with catching the ball, in fact his speed could be useful if field conditions start to get treacherous. The Chiefs D do, obviously, know about him pretty well and held him to just 10 for 62 yards in their game earlier in the year. Jaylen Waddle is back from injury to help out a shallow passing game which has needed Durham Smythe to do more recently. They may try a couple of deep balls to Waddle as I’d expect them to concentrate on slowing Tyreek.
It’s been a rough year on the defensive side of things and losing even more players on that side of the ball last week really doesn’t help. Andrew Van Ginkel the latest to go down, he had been making plays week in, week out before the injury last week.
The Chiefs haven’t been very good this year either but won the AFC West without too much worry, and isn’t this what great teams do? Canter through the season before coming good when things actually count in the playoffs? It’s very tough for me to think things will magically get right for the Chiefs, but at the same time I wouldn’t be shocked to see them win a couple of games this post-season.
Patrick Mahomes is still the best QB in the game despite his numbers not looking good this year, he’ll still scramble and he’ll still hit his guys in the numbers more oft than not even if he has shown his frustration more than ever this year. He has earned the right to do that as he’s been let down by his WR’s over and over.
They gave Travis Kelce the week off last week after seeing Sam LaPorta get injured for the Lions in the early game, Kelce hasn’t been on top form this year but would have still hit 1,000 yards on the year if he was in last weekend, I think his age is catching up with him and he’s had a few more distractions this year compared to other years which probably affect him as well. The only pass-catcher who they can rely on other than Kelce has been Rashee Rice who has come on as the season has continued, he’s had at least 5 receptions in the last 6 games he’s played as everyone else around him has fallen apart. Other pass-catchers? Kadarius Toney constantly messes up, MVS can’t catch, so Justin Watson may be the 3rd choice target there for them.
The run-game will be entirely Isiah Pacheco and he’s the one they want in bad weather, he runs tough even on short gains and will pound away all evening to move the ball on the ground for them. He killed the Bengals pretty much single-handedly with 130 from 18 on the ground, (although the Bengals D is terrible) and he’ll look to do similar tonight. This run in particular had me laughing my ass off, it’s like someone asked a child to run as fast as they can.
Mahomes will scramble if needed but while I do look to that prop in the post-season I’m not going for o26.5 rushing yards for him.
The Chiefs have become a defense-first team this year and it’s got them this far. L’Jarius Sneed is a decent corner and will probably be grabbing Tyreek all night and Chris Jones earned the bonus he negotiated with half a sack last week, he should have fun against this offensive line. The Chiefs run defense isn’t very highly rated this year though which could prove problematic here.
I’ve been thinking the Chiefs win and cover quite easily all week but as things get closer to the crunch and looking at run games vs. run defenses I can see the Dolphins keeping it a bit closer. I am still going to be on the Chiefs -4.5 as the Dolphins just don’t seem to work in cold weather, or against good teams, but I’m not as confidence as I once was!
The run games do seem like they’re the way to go tonight, so Pacheco and Mostert both to score at 3.88/1 on PaddyPower builder seems like a decent bet. Mostert at 7/5 by himself is one I’ll be on as well, 21 regular season TDs shouldn’t be priced above evens really. Longshot? I don’t know why I like Jeff Wilson so much, but 12/1 on PP compared to 4/1 on Bet365 and even worse, 11/4 on “The UK’s official NFL betting partner” 888) is probably worth a small nibble.
I should mention that I’ve trebled the AFC games for all teams to score a rushing TD – It’s on SkyBet “Both teams to score a touchdown/field goal” – Rushing TD is 7/4 for the Browns/Texans game, 5/4 on the Chiefs and 5/4 on the Bills vs. Steelers in a heavy snow game – Treble comes to around 13/1 – Ironically I do think the Browns v Texans game is the most likely and the biggest odds.
I’ll be back tomorrow with a look at the Sunday and Monday games. Good luck if you’re betting and remember to have a look at the picks contest!
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