The culmination of the 2023/24 season is with us as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the San Francisco 49ers at the Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas in what should be a closely fought affair, a feeling shared by the bookmakers who have the NFC Champion 49ers as 2-point favourites and have set a total of 47.5 for the big game.
This is a re-match of the 2019/20 Super Bowl where the Chiefs eventually ran out 31-20 winners as Jimmy Garoppolo overthrew his WR when wide open effectively scratching any chance of a comeback for the 49ers. A lot of the players involved in that loss are returning this year for them, George Kittle was filmed on the sideline after that game vowing to be back here, and they will be looking to get some vengeance after conceding 21 points in the 4th quarter to fall to a painful defeat.
Mahomes didn’t have a good game in that Super Bowl, 2 TDs, 2 INTs and really it should have been Damien Williams picking up the MVP trophy rather than him, but that was early in his starting career and gained him his first Super Bowl ring and Andy Reid’s first as HC of the Chiefs.
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Looking at how these two have done in the playoffs; The 49ers have been widely regarded as the best team in the regular season with many having them over the Ravens who smashed them in the regular season, and as they held the 1 seed in the NFC they are rightly the favourites here. There are two ways to look at their playoff wins so far, a) they got lucky, b) they showed their class with 4th quarter comebacks. I guess, in reality it’s a mix of both. Neither the Packers or Lions could close out games against them and Purdy led game-winning drives in both, they got lucky, but they got things sorted out to come back in both.
The Chiefs had a relative walkover against the Dolphins in frigid temperatures at Arrowhead before winning on the road at Buffalo and Baltimore with impressive defensive performances getting them over the line, much as they have done all season long. The offense is mainly Kelce and Rashee Rice and that seems to be all they need to get the job done against the best teams in the AFC.
It may be worth noting that the 49ers were 2-3 against the AFC, with a loss to the Browns and 14-point losses to the Ravens and Bengals (sans Deebo and Trent Williams) and a 2-point loss to the Browns before beating the Steelers and Jaguars comfortably, so a mixed bag against the other conference. The Chiefs were actually 2-3 against the opposite conference as well with losses in the opener to the Lions, against Phillie and GB while they beat the Bears and Vikings with relative ease.
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There will be a Novelty props page coming this week, probably Friday, and with Taylor Swift being at the game there’s sure to be even more ridiculous bullshit available to waste your money on this year. Personally, I’m very happy with my free money after getting on o64.5 seconds for the National Anthem on SkyBet before they pulled it, it’s now back up at 91.5 so it’s safe to say I’m feeling that’s won. IF you manage to find a market on What the 49ers will call at the Toss, first of all DM me on twitter, and then bet it. Fred Warner WILL CALL TAILS – It never fails. It was on SportingBet and Bwin, but they removed it after it got hammered by some betting nerds I know (they failed to tell me in time…)
I’ll have a player’s props post available in the coming week covering a selection of the 500+ props available for the game and where I feel there’s an edge. I’ll more than likely hit on a few in this, but there’s SOOO many I may dig a little deeper into those later in the week.
Kansas City Chiefs
It’s been a weird year for the Chiefs, an opening weekend loss without Chris Jones who was sitting out due to a contract dispute kind of set up the season, at least on offense. Far from the high-scoring, free-flowing Mahomes-led Chiefs teams we’ve been used to in recent years this season they have been winning game largely due to their defense which has improved markedly year-on-year, not conceding more than 27 points in the 20 games they’ve played while the Offense has been hampered by drops all season long, beginning with Kadarius Toney in that game against the Lions.
But I think it’s safe to say that the Chiefs have reached Patriots dynasty level with the fact they don’t have to put much effort in during the season, can scrape through games, lose a couple but know that they’re safe in the AFC West and when the season really gets going for them in the playoffs they’ll step it up and here we are now, another Super Bowl appearance for them.
It obviously helps having the best QB we’ve ever seen under center. Patrick Mahomes still has some way to go to reach the levels of success that Brady had with the Pats, but he is the most naturally gifted and talented QB I’ve seen in my time watching the league and I do think he’ll get close to the number of rings that Brady has, which sucks for someone supporting a different team in the AFC! His numbers don’t jump out as the passing game just hasn’t clicked this year, but it’s largely not been his fault, he’s been hitting his guys they’ve just been letting him and the team down.
With the knowledge that the other side of the ball is solid he doesn’t have to take risks, so while he’s only thrown 4 TDs across their 3 playoff games, that’s matched with zero interceptions and frankly, few passes that looked like they had a chance to be picked, and it’s earned him 3 of his 4 highest QBR’s of the season. His lack of rushing makes sense as well, he doesn’t have to force things, he’s been in control, so while his numbers do tend to rise on the ground in the post-season we’ve not really seen that this year. If they’re trailing against the 49ers will his rush numbers rise again?
One side note on Mahomes’ it doesn’t look like his dad will be watching the game as he’s been arrested for driving while intoxicated, I doubt it affects his play, but you never know.
They sit 25th in the league in rush attempts this season and the large majority of them have been for Isiah Pacheco who runs like he’s been stung on the arse, the 7th round pick has 63 carries at 4 yards a-click in the post-season and has found the endzone in each of those games, making it 8 TDs in his last 7 as he finished the season strong, he goes up against a 49ers defense allowing fewer than 100 rush yards per game this year, although they were gashed early on by a dominant Lions run game last weekend. If it’s not Pacheco then Clyde Edwards-Helaire could get a little play but his numbers don’t suggest any type of faith in the 1st-round pick who’s a free agent over the summer.
The main question around the passing game seems to be whether Travis Kelce will propose to Taylor Swift after the game or not, odds suggest not, but will this be the end of his NFL career if they win? I’d say that’s more likely as he could go out on top and join his brother in retirement this summer. I was down on Kelce this year, but fair play, he’s made me look like a twat by smashing the playoffs, 262 yards and 3 TDs, 116 yards coming in the first half of the game last week with 11 receptions by half time, and no touches after that as he took the game away from a very good Ravens defense. The 49ers have some great linebackers as well, but few teams seem to be able to stop Kelce’s 11 yard run and stop moves, so I think it’s safe to assume he’ll get his in this game too.
Rashee Rice was restricted early in the season but once they realised the rest of the passing game was useless they featured him more and it worked well for them and he and Kelce generally tend to account for 2/3s of the passing yards from their QB, he can play inside and out and it looks like he can do it pretty darn well, they should move him around the formation to find the easiest coverage in this one. Marquez Valdes-Scantling never does things the easy way but he’s a downfield threat who has helped out a lot in the post-season, he only had 2 receptions last week, but one was the 32-yarder to seal the game and I’d imagine he’ll get a couple of deep shots here, his longest receptions line is usually worth a look.
Outside of those three it drops off quickly, will Kadarius Toney be allowed to play? He seemed to accuse the Chiefs of lying before the Championship game as he didn’t suit up, he did score in their SB win over the Eagles. Mecole Hardman could get a couple of touches whether they’re catches or end-arounds, he’ll likely be high odds and the backup TEs Gray and Bell may get the occasional target as well. Justin Watson and Richie James will probably fill out the WR groups, but again, hardly trustworthy.
The defense has been particularly strong against the pass this year, L’Jarius Sneed allowed catches last week but sealed the game with a brilliant punch out as Zay Flowers was diving towards the endzone, he’s only been credited with 1 TD allowed in coverage this year and I’d imagine he’ll be on Aiyuk for the most-part in this one. The run defense doesn’t rank as highly though and will have their work cut out against the best RB in the league, 17th in yards allowed this year, but DVOA has them ranked lower and I can’t see their opponents abandoning the run game as the Ravens inexplicably did last weekend.
San Francisco 49ers
Is it time for me to finally eat my words on Brock Purdy? I have no idea. Every week he throws balls which could, and should be intercepted, but he then comes back with some beautiful throws, generally when getting smacked in the mouth which keep his team alive and he’s shown that he can lead them to 4th-quarter comebacks; now I would argue they only need to comeback because they’ve not been efficient enough in the first 3, but that’s much of a muchness really. He’s very good, and he’s aggressive which definitely works for this offense. He’s not a big rusher but has shown he’s capable on the ground and with the Chiefs passing D being so good that could be a good angle in this game. If he was a 1st-rounder would I have reservations over him? Probably not, so maybe I need to ignore his draft cost.
Obviously Purdy is helped by having the best running back in the league in the backfield with him in Christian McCaffrey, just the 260 combined yards and 4 TDs over their 2 playoff games so far this year, CmcC is the shoo-in offensive player of the year and is rightly the highest of the non-QBs in the SB MVP betting, although as we’ve seen year in, year out it’s basically just a QB award. He led the league in rushing yards and TDs and will come in here fresh and expected to get 20+ carries as well as 4 or 5 receptions out of the backfield. If they choose to spell him a little then Elijah Mitchell can come in and run well, he got himself a TD last week as well against the Lions, oh and they’ll probably give Deebo a few attempts as well.
While it should be a run-heavy gameplan from the Niners they have talent in the passing game as well, Deebo Samuel will get a few carries as they try to just get the ball in the hands of the dynamic play-maker and he’ll be the main target in the mid-passing game as well, the middle of the Chiefs defense will have to be on top of their game to not allow him to get up to speed. On the outside is Brandon Aiyuk who led the league in yards per reception in the regular season and had a good game on few receptions last week including the game-changing catch off the opponents facemask as they drove to score in the 3rd quarter. He’ll probably get the tougher coverage here so it might be a lesser week for him but he’s a YAC monster if he gets free so I won’t take under on his yards. George Kittle has quietly had a great year, he topped 1,000 yards from the TE spot and alongside his exemplary blocking is a proven playmaker in the passing game, he’s had good games against the Chiefs before and was highly targeted by Jimmy G when these two met in the SB 4 years ago. Juaun Jennings will probably get a target or two and Kyle Juszcyzk may get some touches from the full back position, usually a decent price to find the endzone.
Defensively they should be very good, Bosa, Armstead and Young up front should get pressure against a stout Chiefs OL, and Warner and Greenlaw are arguably the best LB duo in the league, they aren’t as strong in the secondary as they used to be but it’s not a bad unit by any terms. The fact that the Chiefs only have one or two weapons means that they should be in a decent position on D. A top 5 run defense (although it has been gashed on the outside in the playoffs), a middling passing defense, although they allowed the 3rd most receptions in the regular season, they were top 10 in TDs allowed and led the league in interceptions.
So…the result?
With that I feel I should be closer to picking a winner here, but I’m really not. They’re evenly matched teams. The 49ers look like the better team overall, but do you select that or the best QB? It’s usually taking the best QB which pays dividends, so I think I’m leaning to the Chiefs and some Mahomes magic getting the job done.
IF I was betting the spread or total I’d be taking the Chiefs moneyline and, honestly, a small lean to the over? But I do now respect that Chiefs defense, they may make things tough, my big worry is that every man and his dog seems to be taking the Chiefs this time around and yet the line hasn’t budged, so there must be some big money on the other side of things.
Player props will be hopefully done for tomorrow night, or Saturday afternoon, that’s where most of my bets will be done.
TouchdownTips 