You can find my preview of the full game over at Super Bowl LVIII; Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers – A lot of the props on here will probably be following along the thoughts of that preview for obvious reasons.
I could, and maybe should have done it all in one post, but I did the preview at work where looking at Betting websites would have been inadvisable so figured I would do a separate post on them.
The Super Bowl is one of the most bet on events in the world and as there has been money bet all week long the lines will now be polished, so it’s probably not the best time to be looking at betting lines, especially not if you’re looking to go over on line. The public generally only bet the OVERS on player props so the lines will be the highest they are all week when we get to game-time, either way, I will throw up a few I think are still worth the bet.
Most lines are from Bet365, just because it’s by far the easiest site to navigate, how other books haven’t managed to figure it anything similar is beyond me.
Quarterback Props
Purdy; Passing yards – 247.5, Attempts – 31.5, Passing TDs – o1.5 at 10/13 under 1/1, Interceptions – o0.5 at 10/13, Under 1/1 , Rush yards – 12.5.
I think the 49ers go for a run-heavy scheme so it makes sense looking to the under on Attempts for Purdy, I wouldn’t take his yards under as he is an aggressive passer and despite the Chiefs very good secondary he can put up yards quickly. I like o0.5 Interceptions – He should have had multiple in each of the playoff games so far and got incredibly lucky, although the Chiefs only having 8 INTs (joint 3rd worst) all season long puts me off a bet on that. I’ll have o12.5 rush yards in a bet builder, he’s been scrambling a lot in the playoffs (14 and 48 rush yards) – The worry on these is kneel-downs at the end of the game but I’ve got the Chiefs winning, so I can’t worry about that.
Mahomes; Passing yards – 261.5, Attempts – 36.5, Passing TDs – o1.5 at 20/31, Interceptions – 0.5 – 20/23 both sides , Rush yards – 25.5.
The Chiefs having a better defense has led to a lot fewer passing numbers for the Chiefs, especially in the playoffs where they seem to have been playing it safe when getting ahead, so it’s tempting to take the under for Mahomes passing yards, something I thought I’d never say. It’s been at this line for a while now, if you do like the under take it tomorrow as late as possible as it will probably tick up towards the game his playoff games – 262, 215 and 241, zero INTs in each so leaning to under on that. Rush yards? I’d be leaning under on this line too, he tends to up them in post-seasons but this is a different Chiefs team with a solid defense, it’s not all on him any more.
Running Backs
First up, I must say I love the o1.5 rushing TDs for the 49ers on bet365 at 8/5, I’ve been told it’s on Skybet, but I can’t find it.
Christian McCaffrey; 89.5 rush yards, 18.5 attempts, longest 17.5, 35.5 rec yards.
Elijah Mitchell; 4.5 rush yards, 1.5 attempts, longest 3.5, o0.5 rec yards – 6/1
Isiah Pacheco; 67.5 rush yards, 16.5 attempts, longest 15.5, o17.5 rec yards
Clyde Edwards-Helaire; o5.5 rush yards (PaddyPower).
Deebo Samuel; 16.5 rush yards, 2.5 attempts.
McCaffrey is a god, he’s the best RB in the league, possibly the best offensive player in the league, he’ll probably top his rushing yard line, I think he’ll get the carries as well. His rush line has actually dropped a yard or two, so leaning over, his carries line has gone up all week as has his receiving yards line. I’d lean under his rec line, but he’s so good I can’t bet that under on anything for him.
You know what, I’m liking Elijah Mitchell for over on his lines tomorrow, if he gets two receptions he gets the other two. So I also like a longshot on 25+ rush yards for him at 14/1. He could break one, McCaffrey could get injured, Mitchell could break an attempt. Admittedly the numbers aren’t great historically, he didn’t have a carry against the Packers, but did have 4 for 7 against the Lions, and scored. I think they go run-heavy and they could give more opportunities for Mitchell.
I’d lean under on Pacheco as I think they’re going to be more pass-heavy but he has been very good on the ground and will probably be around 15-18 carries, so there’s nothing for me on him. He’s scored in 4 games in a row, including all three playoff games.
Pass Catchers
Obviously, there’s a TON of players here so I’ll just concentrate on things I like.
Brandon Aiyuk; 59.5 rec. yards, 4.5 receptions. – His lowest line for a while, he won’t get Sneed covering him every snap, but that secondary is pretty good all round, I’m hesitant to hit anything on Aiyuk.
Deebo Samuel; 58.5 rec. yards, 4.5 receptions, he won’t get Sneed much, he will get open. I think I’d be leaning under on his yards, a touch over on receptions –
George Kittle; 51.5 rec. yards, 3.5 receptions – Kittle is the guy I’m looking at in their passing game, it’s a good matchup for him and he’ll step up. He’s had 2 and 4 across the two playoff games, had 4 in the SB vs. the Chiefs 4 years ago, 6 for 98 yards when they last played in the league a couple of years ago.
Travis Kelce; 71.5 rec. yards, 6.5 receptions. The passing offense is pretty much Kelce and Rice, he’ll face a tough LB corps here, but it’s Kelce, he will run a yard past the line to gain stop, turn around and get the ball. (Also the league will script it for him to do well…) Lean over on both.
Rashee Rice; 68.5 rec. yards, 6.5 receptions. Rice has been the other reliable part of this passing offense and I think he’ll get heavily targeted on the left hand side of that formation. Lean over on receptions, under on yards.
MVS; 19.5 rec. yards, 1.5 receptions. Lean over on yards and receptions, he seems like he’s been a little more trusted recently, longest receptions 14.5, if he catches 2 it’s likely one will be above that.
Noah Gray; 13.5 rec. yards, 1.5 receptions. Lean under on yards, over on receptions.
Skyy Moore; 2.5 rec. yards. He might not even play, but they activated him this week, he scored in the Super Bowl last year, will he get a catch? I think so.
Picks from the pass catchers? – Kittle o3.5 receptions, MVS longest receptions o14.5, Skyy Moore o2.5 rec. yards
TD Scorers
Of course McCaffrey should find the endzone as he has done all season, Pacheco has hit 4 in a row now, Kelce has scored in all playoff games. I prefer Deebo to Aiyuk in the passing game, he’s best priced 6/4 QuinnBet. They’re the shorter odds. I don’t mind a punt on 10/1 for Moore (might not even play, therefore void) or Hardman at 16/1, both on PaddyPower. Juszczyk nearly got in last week, may get a chance, he’s best priced 11/1 at 10bet, 9/1 Paddy/Skybet and you’re getting the best price at 9/1 on PP. (LiveScoreBet are actually listed a little higher on Oddschecker but I don’t tend to list them as so few people have them.)
Various
The 49ers, and Fred Warner will call Tails, obviously I won’t suggest what it will land on, that would be stupid but I think either team will defer and take the ball in the second half.
I think there WILL be a Touchback to start the game, it’s 2/5, so it’s not something I’ll be betting on, but both kickers here are likely to hit the endzone and now that rules put a touchback at the 25 yard line they’re more common.
I like the “Player to catch a pass on the 1st drive” market, Far better pricing on PaddyPower than Skybet… Kelce 5/6 seems like a banker if they get at least one first down, and 4/1 on 2+ is tempting as well. – For the 49ers I obviously like Kittle at 9/5, 8/1 on him seems a nice price too if you want to risk it a bit more.
1st Quarter – Historically Super Bowls are slow scoring, but I think that’s a legacy of the Patriots dynasty and the lack of points Brady always scored in 1st quarters, I like the OVER 8.5 points – 5/6 (PaddyPower) in the 1st quarter; 14 pts last year, 10 before that, 10, 10 when these teams last played 4 years ago.
Either team to score 3 unanswered times – 5/9; One that sounds like it’s quite unlikely but actually happens quite a lot, you won’t get rich at 5/9 but it will likely happen.
Chiefs o1.5 field goals – 20/23; The Chiefs offense hasn’t exactly been clicking this year, it has obviously got better in the playoffs, but they stall a lot of drives and take the FGs (I’m thinking the 5 vs. the Bengals on NYE at the front of my mind)
Shortest TD scored – u1.5 yards – 20/29; Another yearly regular, DPI in the endzone puts it at the one, and the running backs will likely both get in if they get the chance.
Kelce o32.5 1st half receiving yards – 5/6 (PaddyPower) – The Chiefs have been a LOT better in the first half of games all season, Kelce had 9 receptions and 96 yards in the first half last weekend. I’d expect him to start off hot again.
Charvarius Ward u4.5 tackles and assists – 5/8 (Bet365) – I’ll give credit to AJ on the RJ Bell podcast for this one (not that he’ll ever know about it) – The Chiefs offense is Kelce and Rice, not much else. Rice plays the LEFT hand side of the Chiefs offense, Ward plays the LEFT hand side of the 49ers defense, Kelce will be largely in the middle, so Ward will get Watson/MVS/Moore/Whatever – There won’t be many targets to his side of the field, so take the under on his tackles. He’s only hit 5 tackles/assist once in his last 7 games.
Picks
- Purdy o12.5 rush yards
- 49ers o1.5 rushing TDs
- Elijah Mitchell o4.5 rush yards, 25+ rush yards – 14/1
- Kittle o3.5 receptions – 5/8
- MVS longest receptions o14.5 yards
- Skyy Moore o2.5 receiving yards – void if he doesn’t see the field
- Deebo Samuel to score – 6/4 (QuinnBet)
- Mecole Hardman to score – 16/1 (PaddyPower)
- All the list above.
BetBuilder on PaddyPower; I’ll probably have a few involving the 1st quarter total, seems a very good line over there.
TouchdownTips 
Leave a comment