So we finished the week on a nice little 18 point profit thanks to Brock and Nuk not being able to get any yards against the Broncos, for the record. Go unders on all receivers and QBs when they’re at Denver. That was my NAP for Monday and it landed at 10/11, also a nice little Devontae Booker anytime at 13/5 landed thanks to Paddypower, and again my write up proved to be pretty much spot on, I said they’d go back to the run game, and involve Booker more and that’s what happened, the Broncos finished with 157 yards through the air, and 190 on the ground. This will probably be the trend in the coming weeks if they can get their gamescript, and Booker finished with 17 attempts for 83yds compared to CJ Andersons 16 for 107, both scored TDs. I also predicted Alfred Blue getting mixed into the game, and while it came after a Lamar Miller injury, he got equal carries for practically equal yards, definitely keep an eye on Millers status for next week, if he’s out it’s all Alf.
Thursday Night sees the yearly tradition of the AFC South basement battle. I believe the NFL are obligated to show each team at least once, and this is their way to get two of this stinking divisions teams out of the way in one fell swoop. The Tennessee Titans host the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Titans come into the game, as arguably the better team, despite all their shouting about exotic smashmouth in the pre season, and a “thunder and thunder” running attack, they’ve relied heavily on DeMarco Murray for their rushing attempts, rookie Derrick Henry actually only got 1 carry last week much to my disappointment, I was looking forward to seeing him have a big role this year and it’s just not happened. You can’t really blame the Titans though, Murray has had a terrific season so far, 633 yards from 139 attempts at 4.6 per carry and 5 TDs, that’s pretty good. Recent weeks for the Titans have seen more designed run plays for second year QB Marcus Mariota, which if they’re game goes well they’ll likely use more regularly. They couldn’t really do that in a bit of a shootout vs Indy last week. Mariota has a couple of average targets in the passing game. A lot was expected of Tajae Sharp who impressed in pre-season but hasn’t found much to impress, although has given a solid 50 odd yards per game in most matches this season. Kendal Wright blew up a couple of weeks back leading a few to think he’s going to do something to help the team, but came back down to earth a bit last week, and Rishard Matthews is their other threat there, again, he’s done ok, but nothing to write home about. Delanie Walker on the other hand, their TE is the main threat for them, especially when they get to the red zone, Mariota loves going to him and he usually obliges. They actually have a fairly solid defence, one that I thought would have destroyed the Colts shocking OL. But they didn’t do as well as I’d expected. Orakpo is a quality defensive player though and one to keep an eye on if you’re stupid enough to stay up to watch this. (I might do as I’ve got the Friday off of work…)
The Jaguars, as I’ve probably written a few times already this season were the hype team of the pre-season, but have let everyone down so far this year, especially on offence. Blake Bortles at QB has stunk up the place so far, and that’s killed everyone on the team. His action is awful and won’t be fixed mid-season, they’re either going to have to go back to the drawing board and draft a new QB or work intensively in the off season to get him right. Unfortunately it may well mean the end of Gus Bradley and his coaching staff who they’ve been very patient with, but he’s got the talent there now and just isn’t getting anything from them. Bortles issues have ruined everyone elses value, the two Allens, Hurns and Robinson last year got themselves a combined 24 TDs, 14 for Robinson and 10 for Hurns, so far this year they’re on 4. Hurns especially has been hurt this, and Marquis Lee is now the teams second most targeted player (I tipped him anytime at 9/2 last week, and he had 7 catches for 107 so it’s coming), albeit in mostly short range passes. It doesn’t help the team that they’ve only managed to get their running game going in one game, and it looks like that was more because the Colts are awful (except their QB) than the Jags performing well. TJ Yeldon looked last year like he could be something, but he’s been garbage this year, and Chris Ivory was brought in to be the hitter, he’s struggled with injury, but even now he’s fit, he’s not done a great deal, 48 yds from 5 attempts, 42 of that on one run last week. He also let down my personal BPTS trixie, that would have netted £550 if he’d gone in. He is however the more likely scorer from the RBs. The tight end situation isn’t anything to write home about, Julius Thomas did however get a TD last week stealing it away from a defender. The brightest spot for the Jags this season has in fact been Jaelen Ramsey at corner back, he’s proving to be quite the player and has been shutting down opposing no.1s for a few weeks now. Who the Titans no.1 is, I have no idea though, so I’m not sure who he’ll be on for the majority of the game.
I can’t imagine this being a very good game, neither is a good team. DeMarco Murray should get in for a touch, possibly 2. Delanie Walker as said is the main threat in the air for them. The Jags, I’m really not sure. If, and it’s a gigantic if, they click, then who knows, but that just doesn’t seem likely.
I’m thinking looking at unders on all Jags receivers could be a sensible way to go, A rob seems to be set to around 68 which he hasn’t hit for a month. Marquis Lee however is trending up, line is set at 44.5. He’s had 61 and 107 in the last two weeks. So im happy to go overs.
- Unders on total points – u43.5 – 10/11 (2 pts)
- Murray anytime 10/11 – 5 pts (365)
- Murray and Walker BPTS – 4/1 (2 pts)
Marquis Lee anytime was 9/2, generally 7/2 everywhere now, probably still worth a little dabble (1pt) also Lee o44.5 yards (365) – 5 pts
15 pts total
Mercedes Lewis could also be worth a look if Julius Thomas is out, he’s currently listed as questionable. Lewis is 6/1 before team news has been finalised, that will probably half if he’s the starter, while I dont think he’ll score, the value tempts me a little.