Some of you may be relieved, and some of you may be upset by this, but it won’t be my usual write ups this week, i’m off to the match on Sunday, which means I won’t have my usual few hours on a Sunday morning to write this sections, so apologies, but i’ll skim through the televised games and hopefully pick out some winners.
First up is the Bills hosting the Pats. The Bills stuffed the Patriots in their own stadium earlier in the year, but that was against Jacoby Brissett, and with their main RB. McCoy looks likely to miss this week which should mean TDTips favourite Mike Gillislee should start at RB, Reggie Bush stole a TD last week and could be in on 3rd downs again this, but they should really just leave it to big Gill. Shame it’s a rough match up for him and the bookies are aware that he’s there, although 7/4 anytime is still tempting. At WR they haven’t got much, their main guy looks like it will be Justin Hunter, with if Robert Woods doesn’t go, which sounds likely. There’s nothing exciting there.
Brady is back. He’s amazing. Gronk is back, He’s amazing too. Blount has carried on his early season form with a proper QB there, so yeah, he’s above average too. One player who has benefited from Brady is James White, he’s got 3 TDs in 2 weeks, leading to him being just 15/8 anytime. He may well get one, but there’s no real value on the Pats side of the ball any more now the bookies have clicked. Martellus Bennett could get in on the action, but has been more of a blocker recently.
The Bills play up to the Pats and it’s usually Rex Ryans main aim in life to beat them, but the Pats aren’t going to get swept by the Bills, especially without their main weapon.
Patriots -6.5 – Evens at PaddyPower. Gillislee anytime – 2/1 (BetVictor)
2125 matchup should be an absolute cracker. The Packers travel to Atlanta to take on the free scoring Falcons. The Packers have been struggling on offence, but stumbled upon something that worked well through necessity recently. Ty Montgomery as a de facto RB, mainly catching short passes, but also rushing a fair amount. Randall Cobb in he slot has also benefited from the new style they’ve been forced into due to their lack of RBs. He left a couple of TDs on the field last week so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him score this week especially against this rather porous defence. Jordy Nelson has been ineffective, so I’m off him, for now. Devante Adams has been the man in recent weeks, and that may well carry on, but i’m going to choose to stay in the flames with Rodgers and his pass completions rather than an individual catcher. edit – seems they are sitting Cobb so an uptick for Adams and probably bringing Niles Davis in for more in the run game
The Falcons have been rampant on offence, Matty Ice and Julio Jones are leading the league in passing and receiving yards, and there’s no reason that won’t continue vs this secondary who are giving up o100 yards to no.1 WRs so far this season. Mo Sanu could chip in with a few yards, and their tight ends usually add to the mix. Their running game this week however took a hit with Tevin Coleman ruled out for the match, his 1-2 punch with Devonta Freeman had been a major factor to Atlanta’s start to the season. Freeman can carry the load himself as proved last season, but I think it will hit the whole teams production a little.
The Packers are still faltering, the Falcons score a billion pts a game, I’ve got to take them at home.Someone in this game will get multiple TDs, but I couldn’t tell you who. As with Green I think Julio will beat his yardage target, but I’m not taking around 100 for anyone, not even him.
Falcons -2.5 – 5/6 (Skybet) Rodgers 025.5 completions – 20/27 – 5pts – NAP (365)
The Final TV match in the UK should also be a brilliant watch (He says after the 6-6 draw last week at this time…) The Eagles take on the Cowboys. The Eagles have landed recently, and it’s not been great for them. People seem to have figured out Carson Wentz and his figures in the last fortnight have been fairly poor. However their defence and special teams have kept them in matches, and ended the last unbeaten run in the league last week. They don’t really have a special running game, or decent pass catchers, so they’ll struggle to pull away from most teams.
The Cowboys will prove an especially difficult opponent as they boast the best offensive line in football, and arguably the best RB this season in Ezekiel Elliott, the rookies has been amazing, and I’m fully on board the hype train here. The Eagles will also struggle against a QB who just doesn’t take risk or make mistakes.The Cowboys have reached 5-1 mainly without Dez Bryant who is apparently quite good. Cole Beasley should still get his check down catches from Dak and it may even lead to an increase for the others in the passing game as he’ll take some coverage away.
Cowboys -4.5 – 20/21 (BetFred), Dak Prescott anytime – 11/2 (Skybet)
Others on my long list for the week include JJ Nelson for the Cardinals, I was hoping for closer to 6/1 but he’s only available at 7/2 for someone who may only catch one ball, I’ll be giving that a miss.
Peyton Barber however is an intriguing guy at Tampa. He got 12 carries for 84 and a TD last week (admittedly against possibly the worst rush defence in history) He is the second choice, but he’s second choice to an old man who’s never had this much use before, so he’ll be mixed in. In the leagues most used offence (they’ve run the most plays anyway) At 6/1 on Skybet I’m all over it against this Oakland defence. You can also get Evens on Mike Evans at bet365 in the same game. Take it. – I also had Seth Roberts down for this match, which should prove very high scoring, but at 23/10 it’s not worth the risk (for the same reason as JJ above)
You may have heard the CJ Anderson is on IR, so he’s going to miss the rest of the regular season, this means the Devontae Booker is the main guy at Denver, and coach Kubiak this week said he’s all over it. Suggesting an 80%+ share of the rush attempts for Booker. In a run first offence. This is a considerable amount. Booker anytime – 5/4
A few guys I’ve got down for possible multiple TDs are Christine Michael (vs the Saints) – 6/1, Brandon Marshall (vs the Browns) – 17/2 and Spencer Ware (vs the Colts) 4/1 I’ll be chucking those three in a trixie (0.5, 4 total)
The Tight ends I’m looking at this week, are CJ Fiedorowicz (vs the Lions) – 14/5. They don’t defend the TE. Gary ‘English’ Barnidge (vs Jets) – 17/10. I usually do a trixie, but the usual suspects are either not playing, in crap matchups, or short odds, so I’ll stick to singles and a double on these two. Jimmy Graham was my other choice, but odds suck.
- Patriots -6.5 – Evens at PaddyPower.
- Gillislee anytime – 2/1 (BetVictor)
- Falcons -2.5 – 5/6 (Skybet)
- Rodgers 025.5 completions – 20/27 – 5pts – NAP (365)
- Cowboys -4.5 – 20/21 (BetFred)
- Handicap treble – around 6/1 depending on bookie (5.96 on 365) – 2pts
- Dak Prescott anytime – 11/2 (Skybet)
- Peyton Barber anytime – 6/1 (Skybet)
- Mike Evans anytime – Evens (365) NB – 4pts
- NAP/NB Double – 3pts
- Booker anytime – 5/4 (Skybet) 3pts
- 2 or more trixie – C Mike, Marshall, Ware – (0.5 – 4 total)
- CJ Fed – 14/5 – 3pts
- Gary Barnidge – 17/10
- TE Double – 9.26/1 – 2pts
36pts total outlay
Good luck to everyone on. I may post a little review of the Wembley game on Monday depending on how tired/hungover/generally rough I feel after visiting for the match!