Week 9 tips and short write ups – @touchdowntips

Thursday night finished with a tiny profit, would of been far nicer had Freeman scored one of the 4 tds scored by the Falcons, but Evans did the job with his any time and completions bets meaning we didn’t lose anything.

Going to be a bit shorter today as I’m in the middle of nowhere at the weekend and not sure if i’ll have any signal, so hopefully i’ll be able to update this but i’m not confident.

Eagles at Giants

Should of been a really good game, but neither team is doing well at the moment. Eagles are on a losing run and the Giants have struggled all year. Looks like Sproles will be the main back for the Eagles, although Ryan Matthews is apparently still the starter. Passing game for them isn’t worth talking about. But their defence is very good. The Giants haven’t fired all season, they have no run game, and don’t seem to be able to get Beckham in the game at the moment. However, Mr. Beckham has the best numbers of anyone in the game in the second half of the season and they’ve had the bye week to work on it. Cruz and Sheperd have dropped off so i’m off of them, for now anyway.

Giants -2.5 (3pts @ 10/11), Beckham any time – 21/20 (365), 2 or more – 13/2, D/ST score – 7/4, Sproles anytime – 3/1 (Skybet), Beckham and Sproles – 8/1 (Skybet)

Next up is Titans at Chargers. While the first match of the night could be a 10-7 stinker, this could be a cracker. San Diego can’t get through a week without someone dying, and Hunter Henry seems like he will be the next to miss out, opening the door again for Antonio Gates. Their WRs have struggled for fitness too. Travis Benjamin is out and Tyrell Williams has missed sessions this week too although should play. That leaves Dontrelle Inman at receiver. Philip Rivers will provide easily for anyone anywhere though. One man certain of action is Melvin Gordon. Should score. Antonio Gates is too short for me at 11/8. But may add him to the TE trixie.

The Titans have won 3 out of 4, but they’ve not faced much, this week they face the leading defensive rookie stat wise, Joey Bosa, who is the real deal. DeMarco Murray will score if he’s near fit, possibly 2. If he’s struggling then take Derrick Henry to get one. In the passing game Delanie Walker may be out due to a groin injury, so look for Kendall Wright, or a replacement TE. Supernaw or Fassano could be good if they’re big odds.

Murray anytime – 11/10 (PP), 2 or more (13/2 PP). Fassano (11/1 365) or Supernaw (11/2 365) 1 point on each IF Walker is out. 

The late night this week is The Broncos at The Raiders. I like the Raiders, I really do. also, I dislike the Broncos. One plays exciting entertaining brave football. The other is a group of thugs. Very successful thugs it has to be said. I want the Raiders to win, and they should. However Denver always screw me over. As of time of writing Amari cooper is questionable which would be a big loss for them. The Broncos usually let a few yards to rbs, the Raiders don’t excel there however Lat Murray does well without seeming it. Crabtree could well get in, and is the main guy if Cooper is out, (edit – Rapsheet reports that Cooper is good to go. They needed him) also have a look at Seth Roberts who seems to make a habit of scoring, and I hope they both do. Aqib Talib is out for the Broncos which gives the Wrs a little boost. The Broncos will use Booker a lot in the run game again against a porous Oakland Defence, expect him to score, and i’d imagine Sanders or Thomas will get in although your guess is as good as mine which of them does. Probably Sanders of the two. They also signed AJ Derby at tight end in the week. Keep an eye on him on the off chance. Siemian may even beat his yards target if its around 200-220 (yards seem to be set to 240 so give that a miss)

Booker anytime – 5/4 – Crabtree anytime – 6/4 (365) Latavius Murray – 5/1 (PP) – 4pts as that’s badly mispriced.

Few others on my shortlist from around the league, and it is quite short this week unfortunately, however I have gone a bit big on the Giants match.

Kenny Britt – Well, he’s playing against a poor secondary, and they will probably have to score to keep up with the Panthers, but at 15/8 i’ll be staying away from that, you really can’t trust Case Keenum at QB.

Devontae Parker or Kenny Stills – Hard to figure out which one of these is going to do anything, Miami seem likely to stick to the ground game, but they do mix in the odd big downfield play, the Bills are prone to giving up a play a game too, but it seems that Parker has been nursing an injury all season, but is now looking back to fitness, so i’ll chuck a dart at him at 9/4 (Coral)

Dante Moncrief (Hilton is carrying a knock, Dorsett is guff) – To add a little to that, Luck is a good QB with no protection and no targets, Moncrief is back from injury just in time as Hilton looks unlikely to play (edit: seems hilton is good to go. Still staying with the bet though), Jack Doyle is the only other viable option in that passing game, so Moncrief anytime – 7/4 and 2 or more – 12/1 (Both skybet)

Hightower for New Orleans, available at 13/5 (PP). Has been told he’ll get a lot of work, against the worst run D in history. Maybe even Kuhn and Ingram as well, I do love a little bit of Kuhn, argh, Kuhn is only 7/2 maximum at the moment, scrap that.

Lions +6 looks good, they score a lot, Vikings don’t, should keep it close. Panthers -3, generous, i think they’re back. Saints -3.5 – 5pts on the single. At the moment has to be my nap of the week. Lump on that! – Treble at 6/1 – 3pts

Not my best work this week but life gets in the way some times and wanted to at least put something out, turns out it’s still about 30 points!

  • Giants -2.5 (3pts @ 10/11)
  • Beckham any time – 21/20 (365), 2 or more – 13/2 (1 pt)
  • D/ST score – 7/4
  • Sproles anytime – 3/1 (Skybet)
  • Beckham and Sproles – 8/1 (Skybet)
  • Murray anytime – 11/10 (PP), 2 or more (13/2 PP)
  • Fassano (11/1 365) or Supernaw (11/2 365) 1 point on each IF Walker is out. 
  • Booker anytime – 5/4
  • Crabtree anytime – 6/4 (365)
  • Latavius Murray – 5/1 (PP) – 4pts as that’s badly mispriced.
  • Devontae Parker anytime – 9/4 (Coral)
  • Moncrief anytime – 7/4 – NB – 2 or more – 12/1 (Both Skybet)
  • Hightower – 13/5 (PP)
  • Saints – 3.5 points – 10/11 – NAP – 5pts
  • Handicap treble – 6/1
  • Moncrief anytime and Saints -3.5pts double – 3pts

40 points outlay, big one, but there’s a few that I think are mispriced.

Good Luck if you’re following anything.

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