TNF – Falcons at Buccs – 3/11/16 – @TouchdownTips

Well, Monday night didn’t go as planned, must admit, I didn’t see the Bears winning that one, and definitely didn’t see Jordan Howard going off like that, I dropped him in all my leagues in the week as they said it would be more of a committee in the backfield. Oh well.

Thursday sees a rematch of week 1 as the Falcons travel to the Buccaneers. Things have gone very differently for these teams since the Buccs beat them in week 1, The Falcons have apparently become a very good team, Matt Ryan is leading the league in yards and touchdowns o2,600 and 19 TD passes, Julio Jones is second in receiving yards behind AJ Green. They beat the Packers last week in exciting fashion, taking a 1 pt lead with 31 seconds left and finished the game out with that lead. Last week saw them throw to 8 different pass catchers, Mohammed Sanu was the top receiver with 84 yards from 9 receptions, including the game winner in the last minute. Julio Jones suffered a bit of a knock and now has knocks to knee, leg and foot. Despite that he didn’t appear on the injury report and looks likely to be a full go tonight. Other players to keep an eye on are Austin Hooper, the TE usually behind Jacob Tamme, who’s out injured, and Tyler Gabriel who got a few targets for 68 yards last week. Terron Ward is another who made my shortlist and I was hoping for over 5/1 on him as second behind Devonta Freeman, but 10/3 is the best I can find on him, i’ll be avoiding him at that. Should probably mention RB Freeman, he’s good, very good. And with Tevin Coleman out he’s the main target in both the running game, and the short passing game, last week he got a TD in both despite now a huge amount of yards.

The Buccs on the other hand got their game to overtime, and lost thanks to a 4th down conversion by the Raiders. While it’s pretty easy to pick out the main targets for the Falcons, it’s a little harder to pick players for the Buccaneers. Doug Martin is out, Jacquizz Rodgers is out, so they’re on to their third and fourth RBs, Antone Smith and Peyton Barber. Now, i’ll admit I’ve not seen a lot of either, but Barber although he has had more play in the season so far, it looks like Smith may be the starter today, although a committee is likely. Mike Evans is, however, the one guy you can usually count on for a TD, and yards. And Jameis Winston knows this. He goes to him over and over again, and I can’t see that changing tonight. The other guy for the Buccs who had been coming on over the last few weeks with Russell Shepard, but he’s out tonight with injury, so tight end, Cameron Brate and Adam Humphries will probably see an uptick in production against a Falcons D that rates as one of the worst in the league.

With both defences in the bottom 10 in the league, and the Falcons being the most productive offence so far this season, this should be a very high scoring game, and I wouldn’t be shocked if it was. BUT it’s a Thursday night match, Atlanta are on the road, so i’m wary about taking totals and handicap.

Devonta Freeman – 2 or more – 6/1 (PP) 4pts, Mike Evans anytime – Evens – (365) – 4pts

Mike Evans o5.5 receptions – 20/31 – 5 pts

I have been tracking teams to score in quarters all season, by far the nerdiest thing I’ve done with the intention of using it for this blog. And I was tempted to take the Skybet request a bet on both teams to score every quarter, however, the Buccs haven’t managed that feat at all this season, so i’m off it. Although the Falcons to score every quarter looks good, they have in 5 of 8 so far this season, and the Buccs have conceded every quarter in 3 of 7. It’s available at 13/8

Skybet are offering all 3 players to score tonight. It’s definitely not a long term profit making solution, but with the likelihood of there being a lot of TDs tonight, i’ll be throwing a 1pt on each of these.

Mike Evans, Austin Hooper and Devonta Freeman – 9/1

Mike Evans, Austin Hooper and Peyton Barber – 16/1

15 points on the night.

Good luck, hopefully it will at least be a decent match.

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