Well, another nice little win on Thursday which would of been better had I just stuck to level stakes and didn’t go double on Terrance West who was unable to get his Touchdown despite 21 rush attempts, still, Steve Smith and Kenneth Dixon managed to get their yards easily enough, while both were only 5/6, the handy request a bet for both of them to get their yards and Ravens win was nicely priced at 9/4, so we ended the night a nice couple of points up, with 3 of 4 bets landing.
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AFC North weekend continues in the second match, the first match up however sees the Falcons travel to the city of brotherly love to take on the Eagles. In what should be a cracking match, in fairness, all the TV matches this weekend look like they should be great, well done people, they were chosen by public vote, although i’m not sure how we all overlooked the Rams v Jets, what a corker that will be…
The Falcons as you probably know are one of the best offences in the league this season, and that’s mainly because they no long rely solely on Julio Jones, they have two very good running backs who compliment each other well, but unfortunately Tevin Coleman is ruled out for the second week running. That means that Devonta Freeman should get an increased workload again, although they scored 43 points in their last match vs the Buccaneers and he didn’t manage to get in the end zone, I would be surprised if he went two games in a row without scoring, Terron Ward is his backup and worth a look if he’s bigger than 4/1 although he didn’t do much last match when he had the opportunity. Their passing game doesn’t necessarily revolve around however, he is still, by quite a long way their best option there, he’s top 3 in the league alongside Antonio Brown and AJ Green, and defences know this, often double teaming him, although he will still usually come up with the ball if he’s targeted. However, this double teaming has been allowing everyone else in the offence to get involved, and that’s what they’ve done, they 7-10 receivers every week and have no problem spreading it around. Their no.2 target is Mo. Sanu, who was the game winner a couple of matches back, and has done well enough supporting Julio. They have tight ends who have made plays, Jacob Tamme is out injured, so the main guy there is Austin Hooper who scored last week, as did Levine Toilolo, and they will undoubtedly use both of them again this match. Taylor Gabriel is another too look out for on the offence, he has blinding speed and can open up an offence with this. I haven’t even mentioned their QB yet, Matt Ryan is a potential MVP candidate (although Brady is massively odds on for it) and he leads the league in passing yardage so far this season, he’s been brilliant, and seems to thrive on having so many targets to aim for, they make 20 yard gains as most teams make 5 yards. He’s second to only Brady on yards per attempt, at nearly a first down each time. On the other side of the ball however is a different story. Their defence struggles, and that’s why we love watching them. Points points points.
The Eagles started the season with 3 consecutive wins and Carson Wentz chasing Dak in setting records without interceptions. How times have change, they’ve gone on to lose 4 of the last 5, although they probably should of won a couple of those. Last week Wentz threw 2 INTS in his first 2 drives and they lost 14 points to those mistakes. They still could and probably should of won the match but went 4 and out to finish the match when Wentz threw high under pressure, they did however leave quite a few points on the field, a Sturgis field goal being blocked and several 4th down attempts failing when a field goal would of probably been scored. Their run game isn’t helping him, it’s there, but it’s barely alive. It looks like they’ve finally realised that Darren Sproles is their no.1 back, which is fine, he’s a talented guy, but he’s not going to run through anyone hence Ryan Matthews still getting TDs despite getting only 8 snaps last week. Sproles should do well this week against this Falcons D, they don’t do well against pass catching backs, and that’s where he does well. Matthews and Smallwood will probably get a few goes each at RB, and if Smallwood was still 16/1 i’d probably give him a sniff, but the bookies seem to know who he is now. In the passing game they’re struggling, and it’s not all on Wentz. They just can’t catch the ball. Agholar, DGB (Dorial Green-Beckham) and even Jordan Matthews have dropped passes in recent week, of those three Matthews is the most targeted and have the most yards, however, I can’t trust him anymore. Zach Ertz had his best game of the season last week at Tight End, 97 yards from 8 catches, but he couldn’t even score against the Lions, and all tight ends do that. So again, he’s out of my ring of trust. One guy who I am willing to have a punt on, at big odds is Bryce Treggs, ridiculous name, however, had 2 for 69 yards on his debut last week, and seems to be impressing the coaches. He’s available at 17/2, although I managed to get 10/1 from William Hill earlier in the day, that’s long gone (Was posted on twitter…) he’s worth a half stake go as there’s no guarantee on his workload. But with it likely to be high scoring, they should have to air it out and the Falcons defence is 2nd worst in the league, giving up 14 TDs to WRs this year so far.
This is actually a tough one to call, on paper the Falcons should win, their offence has been practically unstoppable, and they’ve managed to game plan against any defence, but the Eagles D is rather good, and they’ve won all their home games so far, however I think that Wentz has been found out to an extent, and the Falcons pass rush is sneaky good, so i’m siding with them. The anytime scorers are all quite short, and Sky are offering sod all on 2 or more scorers, so going with a couple of bigger price longshots instead.
Bryce Treggs anytime – 17/2 (1pt at PP) Levine Toilolo – 6/1 (365, sky) Falcons +1 (20/21 on 365 – part of treble)
AFC North weekend continues at 2125 UK time, with the 7-1 Cowboys visiting the much-better-at-home 4-4 Steelers again this is a really tough match to call, although should be a scorcher. As mentioned the Steelers, as much as they suck away from home, and have a true american hero who plays through any and all injuries, even at the detriment of his team, are still probably (it hurts to say it) the best team in the division, and they are much, much better at home. LeVeon Bell really hasn’t fired this season, he’s been getting around 100 yards combined in each match, which is acceptable, but when you’re supposed to be the best running back in the league, it really isn’t, and not getting into the end zone is frankly awful. Match that up with Antonio Brown, supposedly the best WR in the league… This team shouldn’t be beaten by anyone. But they seem to play by the level of their opposition. Brown will still get around 100 yards, especially with the Cowboys suffering a couple of injuries on their defence which could be the turning point in this game, Mo Claiborne is a big loss for them. Other options on offence for them include Sammie ‘1 in 3’ Coates, who can catch long downfield TDs, but takes a few goes, Eli Rogers, who looks like a good look for a random TD, especially with Hey-Bay out. Jesse James will probably be in at Tight End, unless Ladarius Green is good to go, which will be a game time decision.
The Cowboys, in case you have been living under a rock, have proved to be pretty good this year. The fourth overall pick Ezekiel Elliott is the best running back prospect in years and seems to get better week on week. The Steelers have a decent enough run defence (13th in the league), but they will struggle, as everyone else in the league has, to stop this kid, he leads the league in rushing yards this season, and hasn’t slowed down against anyone whilst running behind the best O line in football, they also rested Zeke for a lot of the game last week, Alfred Morris received near enough the same amount of carries after he got 2 TDs from his 18 carries. He and Dak Prescott have led this team to the record they’ve got by controlling possession and the clock, in general leaving the opposition with around a third of the 60 mins in control of the ball. It’s been a tactic which has obviously worked very well! In the passing game Dak has generally looked for the shorter to mid range options of Cole Beasley and Jason Witten instead of Dez Bryant, last week was a prime example, Beasley was 6 for 56 yards and a TD, Witten was 8 for a massive 134 and a TD, although it was against the Browns. Whereas the widely accepted top 10 talent Bryant was 1 catch for 19 yards. Which goes to show how far the Dallas game has evolved to spread the load, but Dez will always be there if needed.
As I’ve said, tough match to call, and tough to pick anyone in it with 100% confidence, i’ll admit i’m struggling. Handicap or points, or Zeke anytime… I think the Steelers will win. And that is literally it, there’s nothing else jumping out at money at the odds.
Steelers win – 20/31 – 2nd part of the treble – (Moneyline 365) Dak Prescott anytime – 10/3 (365)
Last game up on Sunday night sees a repeat of Superbowl 49, arguably the best in history, as the Seahawks travel across the country to take on the Partiots. And, christ, this is also hard to call. The Pats should win it, and more than likely will, however, I’ve got a nagging doubt that the hawks will do something to upset the apple cart here. I can’t put my finger on why, and especially with Michael Bennett missing a match up with his brother, there is no reason to think that Seattle would win this. But there’s just something picking at the back of my mind that thinks they might just pull it off. Maybe it’s because they’ve been poor all season, but somehow still winning, maybe it’s because deep down i think they’re rather good. There’s still no real logic to pick against a Brady led Patriots team.
The Seahawks have not been good on offence. That is mainly down to Wilson being unfit, however, he seemed on Monday to be the healthiest he’s been all season, he moved well, and passed well, ending the match with 2 TDs and 282 yards. The highest targeted player was Jimmy Graham who finished with 103 yard from 8 catches and 2 one handed touchdown catches whilst Bills defenders were hanging off his other arm, I see no reason why he can’t carry on that form this week, and he’ll likely be the most targeted catcher again. The WR game for the Seahawks should be revolving around Doug Baldwin, and i’m hoping he can catch fire again as he did last season, and he has shown glimpses, 6 for 89 last week looking like a good sign. The Seahawks keep promising to give CJ Prosise more action, but that “more action” seems to be an increase of 1 carry per week, last week disappointed me greatly. This week however Chrtistine Michael seems to have been a late addition to the injury report and is down as questionable, leading to rumours he may of hurt his hamstring. This would lead to an increase in Prosise and Alex Collins numbers. Collins has already had a short yardage touchdown carry and I can see that happening again with Michael possibly out. – It appears from this mornings reports that Michael will be good to go, but i’ll still go with a little Collins at the odds offered.
The Patriots are obviously the best team in the NFL at the moment, while Tom Brady may be a certified convicted cheat, he is also, by quite a way, at 39, the best quarterback in the league, his third down completion and yardage in particular is frankly, ridiculous in comparison to all over TDs https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cw1DzlAWIAAjmZb.jpg He’s a phenom, and shows no signs of slowing down, if anything he’s taken exception to the ban and is mightily pissed off. In recent weeks the Patriots seem to have been playing with teams, they’ll keep it close until the third quarter, then they’ll unleash Gronk for 100 yards and a TD or two, with seemingly no-one able to stop him. He is after all a quite impressive specimen, and currently on 69 touchdowns…. heh.. Nice.. The other Tight end who should be involved is Michael Bennett, he’s a monster too, although has been struggling with an injury before their bye week, he seems to be questionable again, if he’s in, I wouldn’t bet against him scoring. One player who has sorely disappointed is Julian Edelman, we all assumed with Brady back that he would return to the form he should last year, but he seems to have been overlooked, on the whole, so far this season. That may be due to the form of LeGarrette Blount, he’s scored in every match Brady has played this season, and has averaged 18 or so carries per match with Brady back. This week they may, possibly, welcome back Dion Lewis at RB, but he’ll probably be on a limited snap count after a year or so off from a serious injury, for the sake of my fantasy teams I really hope he comes back firing!
Again, a really tough match to call, and I wish I wasn’t at work at 5am on Monday morning, and also, probably drunk, as this should be such a good match to watch! The Patriots will likely win, but I really can’t take them at 7.5 point favourites… but it’s the Pats, after a week off, and a short week for the Seahawks… Gut says the Seahawks will beat the spread.
Alex Collins anytime – 9/1 (1pt on 365) , Patriots – 3 – 1/2 (3rd part of treble)
Treble of the TV matches, Falcons -1, Steelers Moneyline, Pats -3 – turns into 3.81/1 on Bet365 -3pts on that
And on to some tips from around the league, there’s actually not a whole lot that jumps out.
I think that 4/1 on Cordarelle Patterson of the Vikings is fairly generous from WillHill, the Vikings seems to be trying to make him a part of the game, even with a new OC there he was getting red zone targets.
I was hoping for around 3/1 on Darren Sproles, but the best seems to be under 2/1 so i’ll give that a miss, although he is worth a mention.
I think that either Hightower or Ingram will have a decent game against the Broncos, they are touted as a fantastic defence, but this season are currently the 4th worst in the league against the run, the saints on the other hand seem to have found the key to success is playing more run plays, which has worked well for them in the last 3 weeks, I can see Hightower and Ingram having success again. Hightower is 3/1 at PP and Skybet and well worth a go.
I think i’ll probably go with Walker, Fiedorowicz and Reed as my TE trixie this weekend, nothing eye opening, but should all do well in good match ups this weekend. And i’ll take CJ as a single at 10/3 as well. 1pt Trixie – 4 total.
There’s a lot of good match ups this week, and a few matches that should be quite high scoring, i’ve knocked together a BPTS Trixie for myself, 0.5pts – 2pt total – Ivory and Miller 9/1 (Jax v Hou) Walker and Nelson 5/1 (Gb v Ten) and Gordon and Ajayi 9/4 (SD v Mia) – works out to about 200/1 on Skybet.
Albert Wilson, or Chris Conley, or Tyreek Hill will score for the Chiefs this week, however, I can’t predict which. Wilson is the higher odds, but I can’t promote him with anywhere near enough confidence to take my money.
Antonio Andrews is tempting at 14/1 at Skybet, Derrick Henry seems 0ut which would put Andrews at 2nd choice behind Murray, while I don’t think it will happen, there’s probably a 20% chance the Andrew get a run or 5.
One match where there’s as close to a guaranteed scorer as you could ever get is San Fran vs Arizona. David Johnson is going to run for 200 yards and 4 touchdowns. He’s 8/15 anytime, 13/5 2 or more on Paddypower at the moment, and 365 haven’t even got the game listed as of 830am, it will be worth waiting for them as they usually have better prices on 2 or more. He’s also 12/1 for a hat trick at BetVictor. He’s undoubtedly the NAP for the day, although the odds are poop. 10 points bet on anytime scorer, currently best of 8/15 but hopeful that 365 will beat that.
Summary –
- Bryce Treggs anytime – 17/2 (1 pt on PP)
- Levine Toilolo – 6/1 (365, sky)
- Dak Prescott anytime – 10/3 (365)
- Alex Collins anytime – 9/1 (1pt on 365)
- TV Treble – Falcons +1, Steelers win, Pats -3 – 3.81/1 – 3pts
- Cordarelle Patterson anytime – 4/1 (WillHill)
- Hightower anytime – 3/1 (PP and Sky)
- TE Trixie – Walker, Fiedorowicz, Reed – 4pt total
- cj Fiedorowicz anytime 10/3 (Bet365)
- Both players to score Trixie – Ivory,Miller,Walker,Nelson,Gordon,Ajayi – 2pt total
- David Johnson anytime – 8/15 – NAP – 10pt bet
- Melvin Gordon anytime – 5/6 (365) – NB – 5pts
- NAP and NB – 3pts (So you can’t do multiples on Paddy, i’m going to assume 365 will be about 1/2 for Johnson, so the double on there comes to – 1.75/1 – 5pts
Comes to 44 points total outlay for myself.
Good luck guys.
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